June 27, 2026 · National Gymnastics Arena, Baku
Hasanov
5-0-0
UnrankedBaku, Azerbaijan | 30 years old
Nolan
8-4-0
UnrankedEdison, New Jersey, USA | 28 years old
The Lion Debuts at Home
Hasanov comes in undefeated, with four knockouts in five wins and Azerbaijan's wrestling pedigree. Nolan owns the heavier hands, but he's been tapped twice by rear-naked choke. The host's plan is to drag this fight exactly where Nolan has already sunk before.
O PONTO QUE DECIDE
The Punch Scares, The Mat Sinks
Eric Nolan has never been knocked out in twelve pro fights. He's got the chin, he's got the one-shot power, and in his UFC debut he managed to rock the hyped Susurkaev with a heavy right hand. But of his four losses, two came by rear-naked choke, and the picture repeats every time the fight hits the mat: the punch scares early, and the floor sinks him late. That's how it went against Susurkaev, and against Richards back in 2023. Farman Hasanov knows it, and he said it out loud. His plan is to use Azerbaijan's wrestling tradition against an opponent who, in Hasanov's own words, leans more on boxing. He debuts at home, inside Baku, undefeated, with four knockouts in five wins. The caveat is honest: Hasanov is a roster newcomer up from the regional level, and his heavy hands haven't been tested against anyone with Nolan's pop. But the stylistic fit is too clean to ignore. One man wants to take it to the mat. The other has already proven he sinks there.
Eric Nolan has never been knocked out in twelve pro fights. He's got the chin, he's got the one-shot power, and in his UFC debut he managed to rock the hyped Susurkaev with a heavy right hand. But of his four losses, two came by rear-naked choke, and the picture repeats every time the fight hits the mat: the punch scares early, and the floor sinks him late. That's how it went against Susurkaev, and against Richards back in 2023. Farman Hasanov knows it, and he said it out loud. His plan is to use Azerbaijan's wrestling tradition against an opponent who, in Hasanov's own words, leans more on boxing. He debuts at home, inside Baku, undefeated, with four knockouts in five wins. The caveat is honest: Hasanov is a roster newcomer up from the regional level, and his heavy hands haven't been tested against anyone with Nolan's pop. But the stylistic fit is too clean to ignore. One man wants to take it to the mat. The other has already proven he sinks there.
Truth A
Nolan has the most dangerous punch in the fight. Three one-shot knockouts, a right hand that nearly starched a hyped prospect in his debut, and the chin of a guy who's never been knocked out. If this stays standing, he can end it at any moment.
Truth B
Hasanov's whole plan is to make sure it doesn't stay standing. Two of Nolan's four losses came by rear-naked choke, he clearly struggles off his back, and the host has the wrestling and the home crowd to drag the fight onto the ground where the American has already sunk.
Tale of the Tape
Hasanov is 2 years older
Reach is essentially even, slight edge to Nolan
Current Form
Farman Hasanov
LFA 223. Stopped his man by doctor's stoppage in round 1 after piling on the damage. His last fight before signing with the UFC.
TKO R1LFA 211. Round 2 knockout on the strength of his punches. The kind of pop that got him to the UFC.
KO R2LFA 177. The only time he's gone to the cards. Controlled all three rounds for the unanimous decision.
Unanimous DecisionSecond-round stoppage by retirement after imposing his pace.
TKO R2Lightning knockout at 47 seconds of round 1. Landed early and ended it.
KO R1Undefeated through five fights, four by knockout and just one trip to the scorecards. He's coming off back-to-back stoppages in LFA before signing with the UFC, and he debuts at home, inside Baku. He's already announced the plan: use Azerbaijan's wrestling tradition against a Nolan who, in his own words, leans more on boxing. He's a roster newcomer, so the resume is regional and the sample is short, but the package of pressure, takedowns and heavy hands is exactly the kind of problem Nolan hasn't solved before.
Eric Nolan
UFC 319. Short-notice debut. Landed a heavy right hand and nearly finished in round 1, but reached for a leg lock, lost position, and got submitted by rear-naked choke in round 2.
Sub R2CFFC 142. Rematch with Richards, who'd submitted him in 2023. This time he settled it with his hands, a first-round knockout.
KO R1CFFC 138. Another knockout, this one in round 2 on raw impact. Part of the run that earned the UFC call.
TKO R2CFFC 137. First-round knockout. The heavy hands showed up again, this time early.
TKO R1CFFC 131. Won by unanimous decision over three rounds. Showed he can hold his own at range when the knockout doesn't come.
Unanimous DecisionA former CFFC champion and a U.S. Marine in a past life, Nolan reached the UFC on a four-fight win streak, three by one-punch knockout. In his debut at UFC 319, he rocked the hyped Susurkaev with a heavy right hand in round 1 before getting taken down and choked out by rear-naked choke in the second. It's the pattern that repeats across his career: the punch scares early, but the mat is where he sinks. He took this fight to debut his opponent in Baku, hostile territory.
Level of Competition
Both men built their records on the American regional circuit, Hasanov in LFA and Nolan in CFFC, with no common opponents. Neither has faced a ranked UFC fighter. The difference is that Nolan already has one Octagon fight under his belt, even if it was a loss, while Hasanov is debuting. The calibre of competition is even and low on both sides: what decides this is style, not resume.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes por Minuto
Nolan has UFC numbers; Hasanov is debuting, no Octagon stats yet
Precisão de Strikes (%)
Strikes Absorvidos/Min
Nolan absorbs a lot: 5.13 per minute in his debut, matching the leaky defense
Defesa de Strikes (%)
Takedowns por 15 Min
Precisão de Takedown (%)
Defesa de Takedown (%)
Nolan's only ground number in the UFC: 71% takedown defense, but over a single fight
Submissões por 15 Min
Hasanov leads in 1 categories · Nolan leads in 4
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Both men are genuine punchers. Hasanov has 80% of his wins by knockout, four KOs in five wins with just one trip to the cards, a sign of real pop even if it came against regional competition. Nolan is more varied: four knockouts, two rear-naked choke submissions, and two decisions, split evenly. It matters for the method here: Hasanov needs the impact or the top control, and Nolan knows how to win more than one way, but his most dangerous tool is still the one-shot punch.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
This is the heart of the fight. Nolan has never been knocked out: zero KO/TKO losses across four defeats, a chin that's held up over twelve fights. But the mat is his ruin, two of his four losses came by rear-naked choke (Richards in 2023, Susurkaev in his UFC debut), and the other two by close decision. The blueprint to beat Nolan is written: take him down and hunt the back, or outpoint him over three rounds. That's exactly what Hasanov's wrestling wants to do. On the other side, Hasanov is undefeated, with no losses to catalogue, which counts as a data point but also means no one has yet tested how he reacts when a fight gets genuinely hard.
Skills Profile
Hasanov
vs
Nolan
Striking em Distância
+2 Nolan
Nolan has the cleaner boxing at range, with the teep, the leg kick and the straight right as his main weapons. Hasanov is rougher and wants to close the gap.
Striking em Curta Distância
+1 Hasanov
Up close, Hasanov edges it with pressure and the takedown threat that takes Nolan's comfort away, though the American has the left hook in tight.
Poder de Nocaute
+1 Nolan
Both hit hard. Hasanov has 80% of his wins by knockout, Nolan has three one-shot stoppages. Real power on both sides, slight edge to Nolan's more tested punch.
Defesa de Striking
+2 Hasanov
Nolan absorbs 5.13 strikes per minute and has just 42% striking defense on his UFC sample. He's leaky on defense, and Hasanov has never been knocked out.
Grappling e Clinch
+3 Hasanov
The deciding factor. Hasanov has Azerbaijan's wrestling base and the stated plan to take it down. Nolan has already been submitted twice by rear-naked choke and struggles off his back.
Cardio (5 rounds)
+1 Hasanov
A three-round fight, with no real cardio history of trouble on either side. Hasanov is two years younger and comes off quick stoppages, slight edge.
Nolan wins if this stays standing at boxing range, where he has the cleaner, more tested hands. Hasanov wins in everything that involves clinching, closing the distance and taking it to the mat, exactly where the American has already sunk twice. The question isn't who hits harder, it's whether Nolan can keep this fight standing against a wrestler fighting at home who's announced he's coming for the takedown.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
The thesis is: Farman Hasanov wins because he has Azerbaijan's wrestling to drag this fight exactly onto the mat where Nolan has already been submitted twice by rear-naked choke, because he carries heavier hands than the resume suggests with four knockouts in five wins and has never been stopped himself, and because he debuts at home, inside Baku, with the stated plan of exploiting his opponent's boxing with takedowns.
The thesis is: Farman Hasanov wins because he has Azerbaijan's wrestling to drag this fight exactly onto the mat where Nolan has already been submitted twice by rear-naked choke, because he carries heavier hands than the resume suggests with four knockouts in five wins and has never been stopped himself, and because he debuts at home, inside Baku, with the stated plan of exploiting his opponent's boxing with takedowns.
The path is Hasanov weathering the first few minutes without eating Nolan's heavy right, closing the distance, pinning him to the cage and putting the fight on the floor, riding top control to a TKO or a decision. It breaks down if Nolan stuffs the takedowns against the cage the way he's shown he can, keeps the fight standing, and lands the one-shot right that nearly starched Susurkaev in his debut.
Conviction
Conviction 6, no higher, because Nolan's path is concrete and has a precedent in his own debut: the right hand that nearly starched Susurkaev proves one shot ends the night, and his cage takedown defense gives him a chance to keep this standing. What holds the conviction at 6 instead of dropping it to 5 is the clean stylistic fit: Hasanov has stated he'll wrestle, and Nolan has two of his four losses by rear-naked choke and documented trouble off his back. It can't climb past 6 because Hasanov is a roster newcomer with a short sample and regional competition, and he has no UFC wrestling stats to point to yet. The edge comes from the style matchup and Nolan's loss profile, not from the betting line or the home crowd alone.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
If Nolan stuffs the takedowns against the cage as early as round 1 and keeps it standing, Hasanov's wrestling plan never happens and the fight becomes a boxing match where the American has the more tested hands.
- 02
If Hasanov, a roster newcomer up from the regional level, feels Nolan's heavy right at range and respects it too much, he could hesitate on his takedown entries and open a window for the counter.
- 03
If the fight stays standing too long, Nolan carries less risk than it looks: he's never been knocked out and his one-shot power is live every round.
- 04
If Hasanov rushes the knockout on the feet instead of chasing the takedown, he trades the ground he's favored on for the ground where Nolan is most dangerous.
Underdog Path
Nolan stuffs the takedowns against the cage with his sprawls and the takedown defense he's flashed (71% in his lone UFC fight), refuses the prolonged clinch, keeps the fight at boxing range, and lets the right hand or the left hook go on a one-shot basis against a Hasanov who is a roster newcomer and has never been hit by anyone with this kind of pop. One clean shot ends it. If the knockout doesn't come, he manages the range and banks rounds with the cleaner boxing.
Required Conditions
- Stuff the takedowns against the cage and refuse to play off his back, where he's been submitted twice
- Keep the fight at boxing range, away from Hasanov's clinch and cage pressure
- Land the right hand or left hook on a one-shot basis, the weapons that are genuinely his
- Don't rush the knockout and burn his gas the way he did reaching for the leg lock against Susurkaev
— Precedent: Nolan himself against Susurkaev (UFC 319, August 2025) shows both sides: he rocked a hyped prospect with the right in round 1, proof the punch travels, but lost position and got choked out in round 2, proof the mat is his undoing. To win here, he needs the first half of that fight without the second.
Verdict
Winner
Farman Hasanov
Method
TKO
Most Likely
- 01
Winner
Farman Hasanov
Hasanov because he has the wrestling to take this to the mat where Nolan has been submitted twice, he fights at home, and he's never been knocked out. The market already sees it, so there's no fat edge, it's a moderate-stake play. Breaks if Nolan stuffs the takedowns and lands the punch standing.
- 02
Como termina (qualquer lutador)
Fight doesn't go to decision
Finish as a play because both men end fights: Hasanov has four knockouts in five and Nolan has four knockouts plus the one-shot power, on top of having been submitted twice. It's a three-round fight with two guys who settle things early. Breaks if Nolan controls the range and it turns tactical over 15 minutes.
- 03
Método
Hasanov by TKO
Hasanov by TKO because his likeliest path is top control and ground-and-pound until the stoppage, stacking the mat work on top of the heavy hands. It pays well because the market anchors on a control decision. Breaks if Nolan survives on the mat and drags it to the cards, or if the takedown never lands.
- 04
Vencedor azarão
Eric Nolan
Nolan as the underdog because his one-shot right hand is real and his cage takedown defense gives him a road to keep it standing. The market may be underrating his power against a newcomer. Breaks if Hasanov clinches up and puts him on the floor, the likeliest version of the fight.
Most Likely Outcome
Farman Hasanov, moderate stake
It's the soundest read in the analysis, the style matchup favors the host's wrestling against a Nolan who sinks on the mat. But conviction 6 means don't size it up: Hasanov is a roster newcomer and Nolan's punch keeps this well short of a safe bet.
Stats That Matter
2
of Nolan's 4 losses came by rear-naked choke, exactly the ground Hasanov wants to find
He's never been knocked out, but he sinks when the fight hits the mat
4
of Hasanov's 5 wins came by knockout, with the fifth by decision
Genuine pop, even if it came against regional competition
5.13
significant strikes absorbed per minute by Nolan in his UFC debut
A one-fight sample, but it matches the leaky defense across his career
The Trap
Nolan by early knockout
The public will see the three one-punch knockouts and the right hand that nearly starched Susurkaev and bet Nolan by KO. The power is real, but the full picture doesn't add up: Nolan absorbs 5.13 strikes per minute, has 42% striking defense, and lost his debut. Hasanov has never been knocked out and has the wrestling to pull the fight out of the range where the American's punch lives. Betting Nolan by knockout is betting on his best-case scenario while ignoring that his opponent's entire plan is to keep this fight off the feet.
The public will see the three one-punch knockouts and the right hand that nearly starched Susurkaev and bet Nolan by KO. The power is real, but the full picture doesn't add up: Nolan absorbs 5.13 strikes per minute, has 42% striking defense, and lost his debut. Hasanov has never been knocked out and has the wrestling to pull the fight out of the range where the American's punch lives. Betting Nolan by knockout is betting on his best-case scenario while ignoring that his opponent's entire plan is to keep this fight off the feet.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Farman "The Lion" Hasanov vs Eric "Night Time" Nolan | UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs Torres | June 27, 2026 | National Gymnastics Arena, Baku
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