June 27, 2026 · National Gymnastics Arena, Baku
Magomedov
28-7-1
UnrankedDüsseldorf, Germany | 35 years old
Oleksiejczuk
22-9-0
UnrankedPoznań, Poland | 31 years old
Power Against Power
Abus is the bigger, longer man with the only real ground threat. Oleksiejczuk is hotter, freshly rebuilt at Fighting Nerds, and 3-0. One man's chin and the other's gas tank decide it.
O PONTO QUE DECIDE
Size Hits the Hole, the Gas Tank Opens Another
This fight is power against power, but both men fall the same way, and it isn't by strikes. Oleksiejczuk has 16 knockouts in 22 wins and one of the heaviest left hands at middleweight. The catch: of his nine losses, six came by submission. Holland locked an armbar, the Hussar refused to tap, and his arm snapped. Michel Pereira found the rear-naked choke. The pattern is old: get Oleksiejczuk to the mat and his neck or his arm turns up. Now he faces the one man in this matchup who does exactly that. Abus has seven career submissions, including the arm-triangle that stopped Ferreira, and he's the bigger, longer man with 100% takedown defense in the UFC. His style targets the Pole's hole surgically. But there's the other side, and it's just as real. The 35-year-old Abus gasses. He gassed against Strickland, faded against Ferreira, got hunted by Pereira, and got reversed by Pyfer. In a three-rounder, against an Oleksiejczuk landing 5.85 strikes per minute to his 3.07, the question isn't who hits harder. It's whether Abus' size and ground threat arrive before his gas tank runs dry.
This fight is power against power, but both men fall the same way, and it isn't by strikes. Oleksiejczuk has 16 knockouts in 22 wins and one of the heaviest left hands at middleweight. The catch: of his nine losses, six came by submission. Holland locked an armbar, the Hussar refused to tap, and his arm snapped. Michel Pereira found the rear-naked choke. The pattern is old: get Oleksiejczuk to the mat and his neck or his arm turns up. Now he faces the one man in this matchup who does exactly that. Abus has seven career submissions, including the arm-triangle that stopped Ferreira, and he's the bigger, longer man with 100% takedown defense in the UFC. His style targets the Pole's hole surgically. But there's the other side, and it's just as real. The 35-year-old Abus gasses. He gassed against Strickland, faded against Ferreira, got hunted by Pereira, and got reversed by Pyfer. In a three-rounder, against an Oleksiejczuk landing 5.85 strikes per minute to his 3.07, the question isn't who hits harder. It's whether Abus' size and ground threat arrive before his gas tank runs dry.
Truth A
Abus is the bigger, longer man and the only one with a ground-and-submission game, aimed straight at Oleksiejczuk's six submission losses. On paper, it's the wrong style for the Pole.
Truth B
Abus' cardio has already betrayed him in three losses, and in a three-rounder Oleksiejczuk's 5.85 strikes per minute, off a new camp and a hot streak, can take over before the size decides anything.
Tale of the Tape
Oleksiejczuk is 4 years younger
Abus is 2 inches taller
Abus has a 4-inch reach edge
Current Form
Abus Magomedov
UFC 320. Landed well early, but Pyfer reversed, took the back, and locked in the rear-naked choke in the second. Another loss once the fight moved past the early impact.
Sub R2UFC Kansas City. Won an ugly, grinding fight by unanimous decision, 30-27 on all three cards. Pereira was gun-shy, but Abus also dropped off when he tired.
Unanimous DecisionUFC 308. Survived a scare in the second when Ferreira landed big, then locked an arm-triangle in the third with both men exhausted. First submission loss of the Brazilian's career.
Sub R3Took the fight on short notice against one of the division's best prospects and got outpointed. Borralho controlled the pace and the cards.
Unanimous DecisionUFC Vegas 76. Took a short-notice main event against Strickland, had a good first round, then gassed. Ate a knockdown and got stopped in the second.
TKO R2He had two straight wins, the submission of Brunno Ferreira and the decision over Michel Pereira, before Joe Pyfer took his back and choked him out in the second round in October 2025. He's the bigger man in a lot of these fights, with heavy hands and a complete game, but the gas tank has always been the leak. He gassed against Strickland, faded mid-fight against Ferreira, and got hunted down by Pereira once the pace dropped. At 35, the same question keeps coming back: can he hold the pace in the later rounds?
Michał Oleksiejczuk
UFC Vegas 113. A three-round firefight with Barriault, won by unanimous decision, 29-28 across the board. Third straight win since the camp change.
Unanimous DecisionUFC 319. Ran through submission veteran Meerschaert and stopped him in the first with the left hand and a flurry. A statement that the striking is sharp.
TKO R1UFC 314. Folded Dumas with a left hook and finished on the ground inside the first round. First win in nearly two years, already with the Fighting Nerds look.
TKO R1Lost a decision to Sharabutdin Magomedov, the other Magomedov on his record. The Dagestani controlled distance and speed over three rounds.
Unanimous DecisionUFC 302. Dropped Holland early, then got caught in an armbar in the scramble. He refused to tap, his arm snapped, and the ref waved it off. A snapshot of the ground fragility.
Sub R1Three straight wins and reborn after swapping his Poland camp for Fighting Nerds in São Paulo. He folded Sedriques Dumas and Gerald Meerschaert in the opening round and outworked Barriault over three. He'd lost three in a row in 2024, all at middleweight, before the turnaround. The left hand is still heavy and the volume is high, but the record points to a hole: he's submittable, with six of his nine losses coming on the mat.
Level of Competition
No direct common opponents, but the symmetry is funny: Oleksiejczuk lost to Sharabutdin Magomedov in 2024, the other Magomedov, and now he faces Abus. On calibre, both are mid-tier fighters with plenty of mileage. Abus has shared the cage with the top, losing to Strickland and Borralho, while Oleksiejczuk built his record beating unranked prospects and veterans. Even level, no clear resume gap either way.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes por Minuto
Oleksiejczuk lands nearly double the volume per minute
Precisão de Strikes (%)
Strikes Absorvidos/Min
Both absorb a lot, Oleksiejczuk slightly more because he's more aggressive
Defesa de Strikes (%)
Takedowns por 15 Min
Abus is the active wrestler here, the Pole rarely shoots
Precisão de Takedown (%)
Defesa de Takedown (%)
The number that tips the fight most: Abus' 100% against Oleksiejczuk's 53%
Submissões por 15 Min
Magomedov leads in 5 categories · Oleksiejczuk leads in 3
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Both are first-rate finishers, but by different roads. Oleksiejczuk is the purer knockout artist: 16 KOs in 22 wins, 73%, with 13 first-round finishes and the left hand as the main weapon. Abus is more versatile: 14 knockouts but also 7 submissions, a sign he knows how to win on the ground too. It matters for the method here: the Hussar needs the heavy hand early, while Abus has the extra grappling option his opponent doesn't.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
The loss profiles are the heart of this fight. Oleksiejczuk almost never gets knocked out, just 1 KO loss in 9, a sturdy chin. But the mat is his kryptonite: six of nine losses by submission, from armbar to rear-naked choke. That's exactly the scenario Abus' submission game can hunt. On the other side, Abus carries the same kind of fragility: three of his seven losses by submission, including the most recent, Pyfer's rear-naked choke, plus two by knockout when he gassed. In practice: if the fight hits the ground with Abus on top, history leans hard his way. If it stays standing and the pace climbs, it's Abus who runs the bigger risk of breaking.
Skills Profile
Magomedov
vs
Oleksiejczuk
Striking em Distância
+1 Magomedov
Abus has four inches of reach and uses the long jab well, but Oleksiejczuk is a southpaw and lands nearly double the volume.
Striking em Curta Distância
+1 Oleksiejczuk
In the pocket, Oleksiejczuk's left hand is the more explosive weapon, 16 KOs and 13 first-round finishes.
Poder de Nocaute
Even
Both are elite knockout artists, the Pole with more KO volume and the German with more size and a heavy hand. Essentially even.
Defesa de Striking
+1 Magomedov
Similar defenses, 56% for Abus against 60% for Oleksiejczuk, but the German absorbs less per minute and is longer to keep range.
Grappling e Clinch
+4 Magomedov
This is where the fight lives: Abus has 7 submissions and 100% takedown defense in the UFC, Oleksiejczuk lost six of nine on the mat and has almost no grappling.
Cardio (5 rounds)
+2 Oleksiejczuk
Oleksiejczuk is younger, more active, and carries constant volume, while Abus historically tires once the fight moves past the early impact.
Abus owns the area that matters most, the grappling and clinch, targeting Oleksiejczuk's biggest weakness. The Pole wins on volume and the gas tank. The question isn't who's more skilled, it's whether the German's size and ground threat arrive before his cardio fails in a three-rounder.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
The thesis is: Abus Magomedov wins because he's the bigger, longer man with a four-inch height and reach edge, because he owns the more complete game and the only real submission threat in the matchup, with 7 career submission wins and 100% takedown defense in the UFC aimed straight at Oleksiejczuk's biggest weakness, six of nine losses on the mat, and because that takedown defense strips the Pole of any wrestling plan and forces a fight where the German's size and clinch carry weight.
The thesis is: Abus Magomedov wins because he's the bigger, longer man with a four-inch height and reach edge, because he owns the more complete game and the only real submission threat in the matchup, with 7 career submission wins and 100% takedown defense in the UFC aimed straight at Oleksiejczuk's biggest weakness, six of nine losses on the mat, and because that takedown defense strips the Pole of any wrestling plan and forces a fight where the German's size and clinch carry weight.
The path is Abus using the long jab and the frame to control range, closing into the clinch when Oleksiejczuk's pace climbs, and threatening the takedown and the submission that haunt the Pole's record to lock up the cards. It breaks down if Abus' gas tank fails the way it did against Strickland, Ferreira and Pyfer, and Oleksiejczuk's 5.85 strikes per minute take over from round two on.
Conviction
Conviction 5, at the floor of medium, because this is a genuinely even fight between two knockout artists and the market agrees, with the line around. The underdog path is concrete and documented: Abus' cardio has already failed in three of his losses, and Oleksiejczuk's volume with a new camp is real. What tips me toward Abus, and no further, is structural rather than a market read: he's the bigger man, owns the only ground-and-submission game in the matchup, and aims straight at the Pole's most documented weakness, the six submission losses. But the gas tank at 35 and the fact that this is only a three-rounder, where exploding early counts more, hold any conviction above 5.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
If Oleksiejczuk lands the left hand clean in the first round, before Abus' size and clinch come into play, he can end it on impact the way he did with Dumas and Meerschaert.
- 02
If Abus tires as early as round two, breathing heavy the way he did against Strickland and Pereira, the Pole's volume takes over and the control-through-size thesis collapses.
- 03
If the fight hits the ground and it's Oleksiejczuk on top rather than Abus, the script inverts, because the Pole's submission weakness only matters if he's the one on the bottom.
- 04
If Abus repeats the passivity from the Pereira fight and won't impose his frame, he hands over flat rounds that the Hussar wins on volume.
Underdog Path
Oleksiejczuk keeps the fight standing, uses his southpaw stance and high volume to pile up strikes from the outside, refuses to bite on the clinch or the ground, and manages the pace knowing Abus' cardio historically dips. From round two on, with the German breathing through his mouth, the Hussar accelerates, finds the left hand, and either knocks out a tired Abus or steals the cards on volume. It's the Strickland and Pereira blueprint, run by a hotter fighter with a new camp.
Required Conditions
- Defend the early takedown and clinch attempts and keep it standing, where his volume rules
- Never go to the ground voluntarily or get reversed, staying out of the one zone where he's lost six times
- Force the pace in rounds two and three to exploit Abus' gas tank
- Land the heavy left hand in the German's fatigue window
— Precedent: Strickland vs Abus (UFC Vegas 76, July 2023) and Pereira vs Abus (April 2025) showed the same script: once the fight moves past the early impact and the pace rises, Abus tires and gives ground. Oleksiejczuk has the volume and the form to do the same.
Verdict
Winner
Abus Magomedov
Method
Decision
Most Likely
- 01
Winner
Abus Magomedov
Abus because he's the bigger man with the only ground-and-submission game in the fight, aimed at Oleksiejczuk's six submission losses. The market already sees it, so it's a light stake. Breaks if his gas tank fails and the Pole's volume takes over.
- 02
Como termina (qualquer lutador)
Fight goes to decision
Decision because Oleksiejczuk has a sturdy chin (just 1 KO loss in 9 defeats) and Abus doesn't finish as often as his reputation suggests when the opponent holds up. Two punchers who can cancel each other out over three rounds. Breaks if one of them lands clean early.
- 03
Método
Abus by submission
A method longshot because it's the most underrated angle: Oleksiejczuk has lost six of nine on the mat and Abus has seven submissions, including the arm-triangle on Ferreira. The market anchors on both men's striking. Breaks if the fight never hits the ground or Abus' fatigue arrives first.
- 04
Vencedor azarão
Oleksiejczuk by decision or KO
The underdog on volume and form, keeping it standing and exploiting Abus' cardio from round two on. It's the Strickland and Pereira blueprint. Breaks if he gets taken down and the German's ground-and-submission game kicks in.
Most Likely Outcome
Abus Magomedov, light stake
It's the soundest read in the analysis, but conviction 5 means don't size it up. The size, the ground game and Oleksiejczuk's submission weakness are real, but Abus' gas tank and the Pole's hot streak keep this a coin flip in the air.
Stats That Matter
6
of Oleksiejczuk's 9 losses came by submission, the hole that Abus' ground game and 7 career submission wins point straight at
Holland, Pereira and others found his arm and his neck
5.85
significant strikes per minute for Oleksiejczuk against Abus' 3.07, the volume gap that decides whether this turns into a firefight
If the pace climbs and the German tires, the Pole takes over
3 of 3
of Abus' losses came once the fight moved past the early impact, the snapshot of his gas-tank problem at 35
Strickland, Borralho and Pyfer won on pace, not in the early trade
The Trap
Oleksiejczuk by easy knockout
The public will look at Oleksiejczuk's 16 knockouts, the two straight first-round stoppages, and the hot streak, and bet him by early KO assuming he runs through Abus. But Abus is the bigger, longer man, has 100% takedown defense in the UFC, and has never been flattened by a pure middleweight outside of a gassed spot. The Hussar's cleaner route is volume and the cards, not a flash knockout against someone bigger and tougher than the Dumas and Meerschaert types.
The public will look at Oleksiejczuk's 16 knockouts, the two straight first-round stoppages, and the hot streak, and bet him by early KO assuming he runs through Abus. But Abus is the bigger, longer man, has 100% takedown defense in the UFC, and has never been flattened by a pure middleweight outside of a gassed spot. The Hussar's cleaner route is volume and the cards, not a flash knockout against someone bigger and tougher than the Dumas and Meerschaert types.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Abusupiyan "Abus" Magomedov vs Michał "Hussar" Oleksiejczuk | UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs Torres | June 27, 2026 | National Gymnastics Arena, Baku
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