Event Analysis
The read on every fight of the biggest UFC events, receipts on the table.
Model performance
0%
67 of 94 winner predictions correct
The model is honest — and has a real edge.
A coin flip would be 50%. Across 94 resolved predictions, the model sits at 71%.
Winner 71%·Method 66%·Most Likely 77% (3 cards)
Honest number. Small sample on purpose.
Calibration
The more confident it is, the more it’s right.
Every prediction ships with a conviction score from 1 to 10. Group the record by that score and the pattern shows up on its own.
coin flip · 50%
Coin-flip fights
conviction < 6
7 of 14 correct
Medium conviction
conviction 6
21 of 35 correct
High conviction
conviction 7+
39 of 45 correct
On the coin-flip fights, accuracy sits near 50%, and that’s honesty, not a flaw. When the model commits to high conviction, it’s right nearly 9 out of 10.
By method of victory
How accurately the model predicts the finish.
KO / TKO
28/49
Submission
7/18
Decision
27/71
Card by card
The full scoreboard.
All 8 cards since the refresh, the best and the worst, nothing hidden.