September 19, 2026 · Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, United States
Van
17-2-0
Flyweight ChampionHakha, Myanmar | 24 years old
Pantoja
30-6-0
#1 FlyweightArraial do Cabo, Brazil | 36 years old
The Fight That Never Happened
Last December it lasted 26 seconds and ended with a busted elbow. In Los Angeles, the 24-year-old champ and the 36-year-old former king finally find out who owns five rounds.
Conviction
Conviction 5, because Pantoja's case is far too concrete to treat as a long shot. His script already got run against this exact champion four months ago: Taira took Van down 8 times, spent 10:38 on top and went into the fifth round level on one card. And Pantoja does it better than Taira in two ways that matter: he lands takedowns at 47% to Taira's 43%, and he strikes at 4.38 per minute to Taira's 2.87, which makes his entries far less desperate. What keeps Van in front is what happened after the takedowns in that fight: no submission attempts, the volume coming back every time he got up, and a 27-7 fifth round that a 36-year-old coming off nine and a half months out and an elbow injury is unlikely to match. It's an edge in pace and age, not in style, and a pace edge can vanish in one bad round.
THE PARADOX
The Blueprint Exists. So Does the Clock.
There's a blueprint for beating Joshua Van, and it was drawn up four months ago. At UFC 328, Tatsuro Taira took the champion down 8 times on 21 attempts, spent 10:38 on top and reached the fifth round with one scorecard level at 38-38. Those were the roughest minutes of Van's title run: 4 takedowns and 3:40 on bottom in the first round alone. Alexandre Pantoja carries the same weapon, 2.79 takedowns per 15 minutes at 47% accuracy, and brings what Taira didn't have: far better hands (4.38 significant strikes per minute to Taira's 2.87) and 9 career rear-naked chokes, including his last two title defenses. But the blueprint comes with a clock. Against Taira, not one takedown turned into a submission attempt, and every time Van got up, he made him pay: 57 significant strikes in round 3, a 27-7 fifth, and the stoppage at 1:32 with a front kick to the body and punches. Taira was 26. Pantoja is 36, hasn't fought in nine and a half months and is coming back from a left elbow injury, the very arm that powers his grips, leg pulls and chokes. And against Erceg in 2024, in round 4, the only round he didn't land a takedown, the Australian outlanded him 31-23. The question isn't who's better. It's how many minutes Pantoja can spend on top before Van's 8.43 strikes per minute send the bill to a 36-year-old.
Truth A
The script already worked against this champion. Taira spent 10:38 on top of Van and went into round 5 level on one card, and Pantoja lands takedowns more accurately, strikes better and owns 9 career rear-naked chokes.
Truth B
The script didn't finish anybody. Van didn't face a single submission attempt in 10:38 on bottom and closed with a 27-7 fifth round, a pace a 36-year-old former champ, nine and a half months out and coming off an elbow injury, is unlikely to keep up with.
Tale of the Tape
Pantoja is 12 years older
Pantoja has a 2-inch reach edge
Pantoja returns from a left elbow injury
Current Form
Joshua Van
First title defense. Ate 8 takedowns and 10:38 on bottom, but outlanded Taira 131-55, dropped him in rounds 2 and 3, and got the stoppage at 1:32 of round 5 with a front kick to the body and punches. One judge had it 38-38 going into the fifth.
TKO R5Caught Pantoja's right head kick and lifted him into a takedown. Pantoja's left elbow gave out on the landing and it was over at 0:26. Champion at 24.
TKO R1Took the fight on short notice, three weeks after Silva, against the No. 1 contender. Landed 204 significant strikes at 66%, scored a knockdown in round 3 and helped set the UFC record for combined significant strikes. 30-27, 29-28, 29-28.
Unanimous DecisionThree knockdowns, tying the flyweight single-fight record, before the TKO with punches at 4:01 of round 3.
TKO R3The unbeaten Road to UFC winner tried 21 takedowns and landed just 4. Van outlanded him 59-32 and swept all three cards 30-27.
Unanimous DecisionSeven straight wins since the Charles Johnson knockout in July 2024, and five fights in 14 months between March 2025 and May 2026. The Taira defense shut up everyone who called the belt a gift: he ate 8 takedowns and 10:38 of control, went into the fifth round with one scorecard level, and still closed the show, outlanding Taira 27-7 in the final round before the stoppage. He's 24, the most active man in the division, and headlining a UFC card for the first time. The one caveat is the same one from that night: Taira's best rounds all came off the takedowns.
Alexandre Pantoja
Threw a right head kick, Van caught it and lifted him into a takedown, and his left elbow gave out on the landing at 0:26. Lost the belt without a real fight. No surgery needed.
TKO R1Fourth title defense. Three takedowns, 7:20 of control and a rear-naked choke at 1:55 of round 3 against one of the most dangerous punchers in the division.
Sub R3UFC debut for the former RIZIN champ. Pantoja won round 1 on the feet, 31-15 in significant strikes, then choked him out at 2:05 of round 2.
Sub R2In Rio, 48-47, 48-47, 49-46. Nine takedowns on 19 attempts and 8:15 of control, but in round 4, the only round without a takedown, Erceg outlanded him 31-23. Fan scoring split right down the middle.
Unanimous DecisionFirst title defense. 50-45, 50-45, 49-46, with 8 takedowns on 14 attempts and 15:51 of control across 25 minutes.
Unanimous DecisionBefore December, he'd won eight straight with four title defenses, the last two ending in rear-naked chokes. The loss to Van wasn't a fight: 26 seconds in, his left elbow gave out on a takedown. He didn't need surgery, and his American Top Team strength coach says he'd have been ready by May. Still, three caveats stack up: he's 36, he's been out nine and a half months, and this is his first fight on that repaired arm in a style built on grips, leg pulls and chokes. At the August press conference, Dana White had to hold him back after Van talked over him.
Level of Competition
The only shared opponent is Brandon Royval, and he shows both roads through this fight. Van beat Royval on the feet: 204 significant strikes at 66% in a three-round war without a single takedown attempt from either man. Pantoja beat Royval twice on the mat: a rear-naked choke in 2021 and 15:51 of control over 25 minutes in 2023. Same opponent, two completely different languages. Recent strength of schedule is dead even, both averaging a 4.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes per Minute
Van throws nearly double the volume
Striking Accuracy (%)
Strikes Absorbed per Minute
The price of Van's style: he gets hit too
Striking Defense (%)
Takedowns per 15 Min
Pantoja's main weapon
Takedown Accuracy (%)
Takedown Defense (%)
Against Taira, Van stuffed 13 of 21 (62%)
Submissions per 15 Min
Van leads in 5 categories · Pantoja leads in 3
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
The numbers describe two different fighters. Van wins by hitting you: 9 knockouts in 17 wins, and his UFC stoppages come late, at 4:31 of round 2 against Bunes, 4:01 of round 3 against Silva and 1:32 of round 5 against Taira, always after the damage piles up. Pantoja wins by grabbing you: 12 submissions in 30 wins, 9 of them rear-naked chokes, including his last two title defenses (Asakura in round 2, Kara-France in round 3). Neither man lives on decisions, but against elite opponents who survive the first wave, both have been taken to the cards.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
This is where the method read lives. Pantoja has never been stopped by strikes in 36 pro fights: five of his six losses went to decision, and the only stoppage was the elbow injury against Van himself, not a knockout. He's never been submitted either. Van has just two losses, far too small a sample to call a pattern: a knockout by Charles Johnson in July 2024 (0:20 of round 3) and a rear-naked choke on the regional scene in 2021. What that means here: if Van wins, Pantoja's history points to the scorecards; if Pantoja wins, the choke is a live weapon, but Van has never been submitted in the UFC and Taira didn't attempt a single submission in 10:38 on top.
Skills Profile
Van
vs
Pantoja
Striking at Range
+3 Van
Van lands 8.43 significant strikes per minute to Pantoja's 4.38, and held 62% accuracy even against Taira.
Close-Range Striking
+1 Van
Both will trade in the clinch, but Pantoja uses that range to grab, not to punch, and that's where the fight changes shape.
Knockout Power
+2 Van
Van has 9 knockouts in 17 wins and dropped Bruno Silva three times in one fight; Pantoja hasn't knocked anyone out in the UFC since December 2019.
Striking Defense
Even
Pantoja absorbs 3.88 per minute to Van's 5.82, but Van defends 58% to Pantoja's 49%. Both men accept getting hit to impose their own game.
Grappling & Clinch
+4 Pantoja
Pantoja has 12 submission wins, 9 by rear-naked choke, and averages 2.79 takedowns per 15 minutes; Van has never been submitted in the UFC, but gave up 8 takedowns and 10:38 of control to Taira.
Cardio (5 Rounds)
+2 Van
Van outlanded Taira 27-7 in round 5. Pantoja has won three five-round decisions, but Erceg outlanded him 31-23 in the one round he didn't get a takedown, and he's 36 now.
On the feet, this is Van's fight by a mile; on the mat, it's Pantoja's by a mile. There's no stylistic middle ground, so the clock decides it: how many of the 25 minutes the 36-year-old can spend on top of a champion who keeps getting up, and how much volume he eats while he tries.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
Conviction5/10The thesis is: Joshua Van wins because his volume nearly doubles Pantoja's on the feet (8.43 to 4.38 significant strikes per minute), and in the one round Pantoja couldn't land a takedown against Erceg in 2024, round 4, he got outlanded 31-23; because the champion has already survived the grappling script over five rounds against Taira, eating 8 takedowns and 10:38 of control without facing a single submission attempt and closing 27-7 in the fifth; and because Pantoja shows up at 36, nine and a half months removed from a left elbow injury, in a style that needs exactly that arm to grip, pull and choke.
The thesis is: Joshua Van wins because his volume nearly doubles Pantoja's on the feet (8.43 to 4.38 significant strikes per minute), and in the one round Pantoja couldn't land a takedown against Erceg in 2024, round 4, he got outlanded 31-23; because the champion has already survived the grappling script over five rounds against Taira, eating 8 takedowns and 10:38 of control without facing a single submission attempt and closing 27-7 in the fifth; and because Pantoja shows up at 36, nine and a half months removed from a left elbow injury, in a style that needs exactly that arm to grip, pull and choke.
The path is Van conceding a few early takedowns without panicking, getting back up fast, making Pantoja pay for every entry with volume, banking rounds on the feet and taking it to the cards against a man who's never been stopped by strikes. It falls apart if Pantoja chains his takedowns the way he did against Royval (8 of 14, 15:51 of control) and Van can't get back up before giving up his back.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
If Pantoja lands two or more takedowns in round 1 and gets to Van's back, the champion is in the position that produced 9 of the Brazilian's 12 submission wins.
- 02
If Pantoja's left elbow holds up on the grips and he's still shooting in rounds 4 and 5, like the 2 takedowns and 2:43 of control he put on Royval in the fifth, the bet on the veteran fading doesn't cash.
- 03
If Van repeats his opening round against Taira (4 takedowns allowed on 5 attempts and 3:40 on bottom) in each of the first two rounds, he'll need a perfect fifth or a knockout to avoid losing on the cards.
- 04
If Van gets greedy chasing the finish he promised inside three rounds and comes forward in straight lines, he hands Pantoja the takedown entries he needs without making him pay the volume tax.
Underdog Path
Pantoja pressures from the opening bell, uses his hands only to close distance and pins Van to the fence instead of shooting in open space. He chains takedowns, accepts that Van will get up once or twice, and keeps coming until he's banking more than three minutes on top per round, the way Taira did in rounds 1 and 4. From round 2 on, with Van tired of standing back up, he finds the back in a transition and sinks the rear-naked choke, or simply piles up enough control to take three rounds, repeating the 15:51 on top he put on Royval.
Required Conditions
- Pin Van to the fence before shooting instead of coming in straight against his volume
- Land at least two takedowns in every round he wants to win, with more than three minutes on top
- Turn at least one takedown into back control, the position behind 9 of his 12 submission wins
- His left elbow and his 36-year-old gas tank holding the plan together into rounds 4 and 5, exactly where Van got stronger against Taira
— Precedent: Van vs Taira (UFC 328, May 2026): Taira took Van down 8 times on 21 attempts, piled up 10:38 of control and reached the fifth round with one card level at 38-38. And Pantoja himself beat Royval in 2023 with 8 takedowns and 15:51 on top over 25 minutes.
Verdict
Winner
Joshua Van
Method
Decision
Most Likely
- 01
Winner
Joshua Van
Van, because his volume (8.43 to 4.38 per minute) and the way he held up on the mat against Taira point to a champion who wins more rounds than he loses, against a 36-year-old challenger coming off an injury. The market has this about right: it flipped from Pantoja to Van and the price already reflects it. Breaks if Pantoja banks more than three minutes on top per round. Small stake, conviction 5.
- 02
Method
Van by decision
Van by decision, because Pantoja has never been stopped by strikes in 36 fights, and Van's winning script is banking rounds on the feet while the grappling phases dilute the damage. The market on a Van knockout and on the decision, betting against a chin that has never broken. Breaks if age finally catches up and Van repeats the fifth-round break he put on Taira.
- 03
Method
Pantoja by decision
Pantoja by decision, because if the Brazilian wins, piled-up control is his likeliest road: he beat Moreno, Royval and Erceg on the cards, and Taira showed you can win rounds on top of Van without submitting him. The market prefers the submission and leaves the decision. Breaks if Van pops back up the way he did in rounds 3 and 5 against Taira.
- 04
How It Ends (Either Fighter)
Fight goes to decision
Decision, because both records cancel out the finish: Pantoja has never been stopped by strikes, Van has never been submitted in the UFC, and all three of Pantoja's five-round fights against Moreno, Royval and Erceg went the distance. The market charges for a finish. Breaks if Pantoja's elbow gives out again or he takes the back early.
Most Likely Outcome
Fight goes to decision
It's the line that leans hardest on what both records say, and it doesn't require nailing the winner in a conviction-5 fight. Pantoja has never been stopped by strikes, Van has never been submitted in the UFC, and the market is pricing a finish like it's the norm. Moderate stake, don't size up.
Stats That Matter
10:38
of control time Taira had on Van at UFC 328, off 8 takedowns on 21 attempts
And not one submission attempt. Van got up and finished him in round 5
ZERO
losses by strikes for Pantoja in 36 pro fights
His only career stoppage was the elbow injury against Van himself
12 years
separate the 24-year-old champion from the 36-year-old challenger
Pantoja returns after nine and a half months out
The Trap
Pantoja by submission
It's the market's favorite way to back the Brazilian: on the submission against on Pantoja by decision. On paper it tracks, with 12 submission wins, 9 rear-naked chokes, and his last two defenses ending that way. But in his three five-round fights against Moreno, Royval and Erceg, elite opponents who survived the early rounds, Pantoja won on the cards without a finish. And Van has never been submitted in the UFC: Taira spent 10:38 on top of him without a single submission attempt. If Pantoja wins, piled-up control is the likelier road, not the choke.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Joshua "The Fearless" Van vs Alexandre "The Cannibal" Pantoja | UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 | September 19, 2026 | Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, United States