September 19, 2026 · Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, United States
Tsarukyan
23-3-0
#2 LightweightArmenian, born in the country of Georgia | 29 years old
Ruffy
14-2-0
#7 LightweightSão Paulo, Brazil | 30 years old
One Takedown or One Punch
Ruffy has only lost in the UFC to the man who put him on his back. Tsarukyan has never been knocked down in the Octagon. Over five rounds, one of those truths breaks.
Conviction
Conviction 6. What holds the pick up is concrete: Ruffy's only UFC loss came from takedowns and control, that's Tsarukyan's specialty, and Tsarukyan owns the resume Ruffy lacks, with wins over Oliveira, Dariush and Hooker in his last five. What pulls it down is just as concrete. Tsarukyan completes only 37% of his takedown attempts, so he'll have to step into range again and again against a man four inches taller who has dropped six opponents in six UFC fights and already landed a knee on Saint Denis mid-shot. Tsarukyan got wobbled by a Joaquim Silva hook in 2023 and dropped the final three rounds of his only 25-minute fight, against Gamrot. And Ruffy's takedown defense has a new gym and a new method behind it: Chandler went 0-for-3 in June. That's why this isn't a 7. It doesn't drop to 5 because nobody has knocked Tsarukyan down in 12 UFC fights, and the one step Ruffy needs is exactly the one no one has pulled off against him.
Conviction 6. What holds the pick up is concrete: Ruffy's only UFC loss came from takedowns and control, that's Tsarukyan's specialty, and Tsarukyan owns the resume Ruffy lacks, with wins over Oliveira, Dariush and Hooker in his last five. What pulls it down is just as concrete. Tsarukyan completes only 37% of his takedown attempts, so he'll have to step into range again and again against a man four inches taller who has dropped six opponents in six UFC fights and already landed a knee on Saint Denis mid-shot. Tsarukyan got wobbled by a Joaquim Silva hook in 2023 and dropped the final three rounds of his only 25-minute fight, against Gamrot. And Ruffy's takedown defense has a new gym and a new method behind it: Chandler went 0-for-3 in June. That's why this isn't a 7. It doesn't drop to 5 because nobody has knocked Tsarukyan down in 12 UFC fights, and the one step Ruffy needs is exactly the one no one has pulled off against him.
THE DECIDING POINT
The One Blueprint on Ruffy Has an Owner
Mauricio Ruffy has six UFC fights and one loss, and that loss tells you everything. In Paris last September, Benoit Saint Denis shot 10 takedowns, landed three, spent 4:38 on top in under eight minutes and took the back for the finish in round 2. Ruffy landed five significant strikes all night. The rest of his resume is the mirror image: six knockdowns in six UFC fights, 13 KOs in 14 wins, Fiziev and Chandler stopped back-to-back. Stand with him and you go to sleep. Keep dragging him down and you win. Arman Tsarukyan might be the best man at 155 at doing exactly that. He averages 3.26 takedowns per 15 minutes, spent 8:41 on top of Charles Oliveira at UFC 300 and 6:02 on top of Dan Hooker before the arm-triangle in Qatar. And the only two men to beat him in the UFC, Islam Makhachev in 2019 and Mateusz Gamrot in 2022, did it by winning the wrestling. Ruffy has never completed a takedown in the Octagon. He doesn't own the tool that beats Tsarukyan. Tsarukyan owns the tool that beats him. What keeps this from being simple is the price of every entry. Tsarukyan completes just 37% of his takedown attempts, so he'll have to step into range over and over against a man four inches taller with a three-inch reach edge, and a knee that already found Saint Denis mid-shot. Ruffy has also spent a year with Alexander Volkanovski's team working on exactly this; head coach Joe Lopez says he's stopped clinging to opponents and started getting out. Chandler went 0-for-3 on takedowns against him in June.
Mauricio Ruffy has six UFC fights and one loss, and that loss tells you everything. In Paris last September, Benoit Saint Denis shot 10 takedowns, landed three, spent 4:38 on top in under eight minutes and took the back for the finish in round 2. Ruffy landed five significant strikes all night. The rest of his resume is the mirror image: six knockdowns in six UFC fights, 13 KOs in 14 wins, Fiziev and Chandler stopped back-to-back. Stand with him and you go to sleep. Keep dragging him down and you win. Arman Tsarukyan might be the best man at 155 at doing exactly that. He averages 3.26 takedowns per 15 minutes, spent 8:41 on top of Charles Oliveira at UFC 300 and 6:02 on top of Dan Hooker before the arm-triangle in Qatar. And the only two men to beat him in the UFC, Islam Makhachev in 2019 and Mateusz Gamrot in 2022, did it by winning the wrestling. Ruffy has never completed a takedown in the Octagon. He doesn't own the tool that beats Tsarukyan. Tsarukyan owns the tool that beats him. What keeps this from being simple is the price of every entry. Tsarukyan completes just 37% of his takedown attempts, so he'll have to step into range over and over against a man four inches taller with a three-inch reach edge, and a knee that already found Saint Denis mid-shot. Ruffy has also spent a year with Alexander Volkanovski's team working on exactly this; head coach Joe Lopez says he's stopped clinging to opponents and started getting out. Chandler went 0-for-3 on takedowns against him in June.
Truth A
The only man who kept shooting on Ruffy in the UFC is the only man who beat him, and he needed less than eight minutes. Tsarukyan takes people down more often, holds them longer, and owns wins over the No. 1 and No. 4 lightweights.
Truth B
Every takedown Tsarukyan attempts is a trip into range against the man he himself calls the best striker in the division, and he's already been wobbled by a Joaquim Silva hook in 2023. Ruffy has to land once; Tsarukyan has to land the takedown over and over, for five rounds.
Tale of the Tape
Ruffy is four months older
Ruffy is four inches taller
A three-inch reach edge for Ruffy, the toll on every takedown entry
First five-round fight of Ruffy's career
Current Form
Arman Tsarukyan
Main event in Qatar. Two takedowns, 6:02 of top control in 8:34 of fighting, and an arm-triangle from mount at 3:34 of round 2. Absorbed just 10 significant strikes.
Sub R2UFC 300. Spent 8:41 on top of the No. 1 contender across 15 minutes and survived four submission attempts. A razor-thin win on the cards.
Split DecisionMain event in Austin. A knee and a right hand put the No. 4 lightweight out in 64 seconds.
KO R1Got wobbled by a left hook in round 2 and bailed himself out with a takedown. Mounted him in round 3 and finished with ground-and-pound. The one time his chin was in real danger in the UFC.
TKO R3Seven takedowns on 21 attempts and 9:25 of control against a man who was 5-0 in the UFC. 30-27 on all three cards.
Unanimous DecisionFive straight wins, the latest an arm-triangle over the No. 6 lightweight in November 2025. That's 10 months without an MMA fight, but he's been anything but idle: he tech-falled Tony Ferguson 10-0 at RAF in June and tapped an opponent in a grappling match in Yerevan on August 1. His opponent changed on August 5, when Charles Oliveira withdrew after the death of teammate Allan Nascimento, and the camp was built after that, at altitude in Tsaghkadzor, Armenia. The week before fight week he said he's treating Ruffy like a title fight and that if he loses, he'll never see a title shot. The one caveat: he's already booked to wrestle Dillon Danis on October 23.
Mauricio Ruffy
UFC Freedom 250 on the White House lawn. Stuffed all three takedown attempts, dropped him twice and finished with punches at 4:29 of round 1. Absorbed just three significant strikes.
TKO R1UFC 325 in Sydney. Ate calf kicks early, adjusted on the counter, and finished with a right hand and ground-and-pound at 4:30 of round 2.
TKO R2UFC Paris. Gave up three takedowns on 10 attempts and 4:38 of control, then got choked out from the back at 2:56 of round 2. Landed only five significant strikes. His only UFC loss.
Sub R2UFC 313. A spinning wheel kick to the head at 2:07 of round 1, one of the knockouts of the year.
KO R1UFC 309. Won 29-28 on all three cards but ate 45 significant strikes in round 3 alone. His only full 15-minute fight in the UFC.
Unanimous DecisionHe answered the Saint Denis loss with back-to-back stoppages, Fiziev in round 2 in January and Chandler in round 1 at the White House in June, and climbed to No. 7. After Paris he started training with Alexander Volkanovski's team in Australia without cutting ties with Fighting Nerds, and the stated focus of this camp was takedown defense. He stepped in for Oliveira on six weeks' notice, but he'd been training since June, including a stint in Thailand. It's the first five-round fight of his career, and he summed up the problem himself: every opponent's plan is to grab him and take him down.
Level of Competition
No common opponents. The strength of schedule tilts hard toward Tsarukyan: in his last five he beat No. 1 Charles Oliveira, No. 4 Beneil Dariush and No. 6 Dan Hooker. Ruffy's best wins are Rafael Fiziev, then No. 9, and Michael Chandler, No. 13 at age 40 after 14 months out. The only time Ruffy faced a ranked opponent willing to wrestle him, No. 13 Benoit Saint Denis, he lost. Tsarukyan is a clear step above anyone Ruffy has ever shared a cage with.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes per Minute
Ruffy is slightly busier on the feet
Striking Accuracy (%)
Strikes Absorbed per Minute
Tsarukyan gets hit less than half as often, largely because he spends so much time on top
Striking Defense (%)
Takedowns per 15 Min
The number that shapes this fight: Ruffy has never completed a takedown in the UFC
Takedown Accuracy (%)
Ruffy has attempted exactly one takedown in the UFC
Takedown Defense (%)
Ruffy's 86% was built mostly against non-wrestlers; Saint Denis went 3-for-10
Submissions per 15 Min
Tsarukyan leads in 4 categories · Ruffy leads in 4
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Ruffy is knockout or bust: 13 of his 14 wins by KO/TKO, zero submissions and a lone decision over James Llontop. Tsarukyan is the more complete finisher on paper, with 9 KOs, 6 submissions and 8 decisions, but his UFC profile looks different: 4 KOs, 1 submission and 5 decisions in 10 wins. The last two times he logged more than eight minutes of control, against Oliveira and Ismagulov, it went to the cards. That matters for the method: Ruffy needs one moment, Tsarukyan tends to build.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Small samples on both sides, so the how matters more than the how many. Tsarukyan has lost three times in 26 fights: two UFC decisions, to Makhachev and Gamrot, who both beat him in the wrestling, plus a 2015 knockout on the Russian regional scene that he avenged a year later. He has never been knocked down in the UFC. Ruffy has lost twice: a 2019 knockout on the Brazilian regional circuit and the 2025 Saint Denis submission that followed three takedowns. Both of his losses came inside the distance, but two losses don't make a pattern. The cross-read is simple: Tsarukyan loses to men who take him down, and Ruffy doesn't take people down; Ruffy lost to the man who took him down, and Tsarukyan takes people down.
Skills Profile
Tsarukyan
vs
Ruffy
Striking at Range
+2 Ruffy
Ruffy is four inches taller with a three-inch reach edge, lands 57% of his strikes to Tsarukyan's 50%, and throws spinning kicks like the one that flattened Bobby Green.
Close-Range Striking
+1 Ruffy
Both men have short weapons, Tsarukyan's knee and right hand on Dariush and Ruffy's knees and uppercuts, but Ruffy hits harder.
Knockout Power
+3 Ruffy
13 KOs in 14 wins and 1.54 knockdowns per 15 minutes for Ruffy, against 0.31 for Tsarukyan.
Striking Defense
+2 Tsarukyan
Tsarukyan absorbs 1.80 significant strikes per minute, less than half of Ruffy's 3.83, and has never been knocked down in the UFC.
Grappling & Clinch
+4 Tsarukyan
Tsarukyan averages 3.26 takedowns per 15 and spent 8:41 on top of Oliveira; Ruffy has never completed a takedown and got finished by the only man who put him down.
Cardio (5 Rounds)
+2 Tsarukyan
Tsarukyan has gone 25 minutes and six full three-rounders in the UFC, even if he faded late against Gamrot; Ruffy has never seen a fourth round.
On the feet, Ruffy has the edge in reach, accuracy and above all power. On the mat and in the clinch, Tsarukyan's edge is the biggest gap in the fight. The question isn't who's the more complete fighter, it's how many times Tsarukyan can get inside without paying for it.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
Conviction6/10The thesis is: Arman Tsarukyan wins because Ruffy's only UFC loss came from the exact tool Tsarukyan owns, with Saint Denis landing three of 10 takedowns, piling up 4:38 of control and finishing him in round 2, while Tsarukyan averages 3.26 takedowns per 15 minutes and spent 8:41 on top of Oliveira; because the only two scripts that have beaten Tsarukyan in the UFC, Makhachev and Gamrot winning the wrestling, require a weapon Ruffy has never shown, with zero completed takedowns in the Octagon; and because Ruffy is in the first five-round fight of his career, with an 8:21 average fight time, against a man who arrives razor-sharp from freestyle wrestling, fresh off a 10-0 tech fall of Tony Ferguson in June, and who says he's treating this like a title fight.
The thesis is: Arman Tsarukyan wins because Ruffy's only UFC loss came from the exact tool Tsarukyan owns, with Saint Denis landing three of 10 takedowns, piling up 4:38 of control and finishing him in round 2, while Tsarukyan averages 3.26 takedowns per 15 minutes and spent 8:41 on top of Oliveira; because the only two scripts that have beaten Tsarukyan in the UFC, Makhachev and Gamrot winning the wrestling, require a weapon Ruffy has never shown, with zero completed takedowns in the Octagon; and because Ruffy is in the first five-round fight of his career, with an 8:21 average fight time, against a man who arrives razor-sharp from freestyle wrestling, fresh off a 10-0 tech fall of Tony Ferguson in June, and who says he's treating this like a title fight.
The path is Tsarukyan mixing strikes to get inside, pinning Ruffy to the fence and dragging him down from round 1 on, banking rounds with control and making Ruffy burn energy getting up until the championship rounds, where he's never been. It breaks down if Ruffy times a knee or an uppercut on the level change, like the knee that found Saint Denis, or if the takedown defense he rebuilt with Volkanovski's team keeps this fight standing for 25 minutes.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
If Ruffy lands a clean knee or uppercut on Tsarukyan's first entries in round 1 and Tsarukyan starts trading from range, the fight moves onto the turf where Ruffy put away Fiziev and Chandler.
- 02
If Tsarukyan closes out the first two rounds with one completed takedown or fewer and Ruffy popping right back up, the defense he built with Volkanovski's team has closed the hole Saint Denis exploited.
- 03
If Tsarukyan decides to prove he doesn't need 25 minutes and plants his feet in the pocket chasing the knockout he predicted, he hands Ruffy the only version of this fight where Ruffy is the favorite.
- 04
If Tsarukyan reaches round 4 having burned his gas tank on takedowns that don't stick, the late-round fatigue from the Gamrot fight comes back, this time in front of a man who ends fights off one mistake.
Underdog Path
Ruffy works from the outside with the jab and kicks, lets Tsarukyan come to him and punishes every shot with a knee or an uppercut timed on the entry. When he does get taken down, he doesn't hold on: he turns to his side, walls up on the fence and stands, exactly the way Volkanovski's team has drilled it. After two or three entries get punished, Tsarukyan starts striking to find another way in, and that's where Ruffy lands clean inside the first three rounds and swarms for the stoppage. If the knockout doesn't come, the backup plan is keeping it standing, winning rounds on the feet and waiting for the late-round fade Tsarukyan showed against Gamrot.
Required Conditions
- Stuff the round 1 takedowns and get up fast on the ones that land, without giving up his back the way he did against Saint Denis
- Punish the entries with knees and uppercuts until Tsarukyan hesitates before shooting
- Use the three-inch reach edge to hold range and stay off the fence
- Land the fight-changing shot before the cost of defending takedowns catches up with him in his first five-round fight
— Precedent: Ruffy vs. Michael Chandler, UFC Freedom 250, June 2026: a wrestler tried three takedowns, completed none, and got knocked out in round 1. The caveat is that Chandler was 40 and coming off 14 months out. Against Tsarukyan himself, Joaquim Silva proved in June 2023 that his chin can be reached, wobbling him with a left hook in round 2, but couldn't close the show and got stopped in round 3.
Verdict
Winner
Arman Tsarukyan
Method
Decision
Most Likely
- 01
Winner
Arman Tsarukyan
Tsarukyan because the script that beat Ruffy is his game, and the scripts that beat Tsarukyan require a takedown Ruffy has never completed in the UFC. The market is already charging a 76% implied probability, above the 70% this breakdown lands on, so it's the right side at full price with no value. Breaks if Ruffy lands clean on a level change.
- 02
Method
Tsarukyan by decision
Decision because in the two fights where Tsarukyan logged more than eight minutes of control, Oliveira and Ismagulov, it went the distance, and Ruffy has never been stopped in the UFC. This breakdown puts that outcome around 40%, so it only has value at plus or better. Breaks if the top control turns into ground-and-pound like it did against Joaquim Silva.
- 03
Underdog
Ruffy by KO/TKO
Ruffy by knockout because it's the underdog's real path: six knockdowns in six UFC fights and three Chandler takedowns stuffed before the finish. This breakdown puts that outcome around 22%, so it only makes sense at plus or better, on a minimum stake. Breaks if Tsarukyan completes the first takedown in the opening minutes.
Most Likely Outcome
Tsarukyan by decision, small stake, only at plus or better
That's where this read and the price can actually meet. The moneyline is too expensive for a conviction-6 pick in a fight where the underdog has a short road. If the book is offering less than plus on the decision, the best bet is no bet.
Stats That Matter
ZERO
knockdowns Tsarukyan has suffered in 12 UFC fights
Not Dariush, not Hooker, not Oliveira. Joaquim Silva came closest with a left hook in 2023
3 of 10
Saint Denis takedowns on Ruffy, with 4:38 of control in under eight minutes
The only man who kept shooting on Ruffy is the only man who beat him in the UFC
8:21
Ruffy's average fight time
He's never seen a fourth round, and this one is scheduled for five
The Trap
Tsarukyan by submission
The public will remember Saint Denis taking Ruffy's back and Tsarukyan's arm-triangle on Hooker, and pile onto Tsarukyan by submission. But Tsarukyan has one submission in 12 UFC fights and averages 0.1 attempts per 15 minutes, while Saint Denis, the man who actually tapped Ruffy, averages 1.7. Tsarukyan controls to win rounds and do damage, not to hunt necks, and Ruffy's whole camp has been about not clinging and getting back up. If Ruffy loses this fight on the mat, the cards or ground-and-pound are far likelier endings.
The public will remember Saint Denis taking Ruffy's back and Tsarukyan's arm-triangle on Hooker, and pile onto Tsarukyan by submission. But Tsarukyan has one submission in 12 UFC fights and averages 0.1 attempts per 15 minutes, while Saint Denis, the man who actually tapped Ruffy, averages 1.7. Tsarukyan controls to win rounds and do damage, not to hunt necks, and Ruffy's whole camp has been about not clinging and getting back up. If Ruffy loses this fight on the mat, the cards or ground-and-pound are far likelier endings.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Arman "Ahalkalakets" Tsarukyan vs Mauricio "One Shot" Ruffy | UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 | September 19, 2026 | Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, United States
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