UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs Pyfer • Women's Strawweight (115 lbs) • 3 Rounds
March 28, 2026
Thainara
13-1-0
#13 WSWBrasil
11-6-1
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes Per Minute
Thainara has massive volume, more than double Brasil. 5.73 SLpM is elite for the division.
Striking Accuracy (%)
Brasil is more surgical at 56%, but throws far less. Thainara compensates lower accuracy with absurd volume.
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Very close absorption numbers. Both stay below 3 significant strikes absorbed per minute.
Strike Defense (%)
Thainara defends 70% of strikes, an exceptional number. Brasil absorbs nearly half of what is thrown at her.
Takedowns Per 15 Min
Thainara attempts more than double the takedowns, reflecting her black belt BJJ.
Takedown Accuracy (%)
Thainara converts 85% of takedowns, an absurd number. When she decides to take it down, she does.
Takedown Defense (%)
Another massive Thainara advantage: 85% vs 53%. Brasil is vulnerable to takedowns.
Thainara leads in 5 categories · Brasil leads in 2
Tale of the Tape
Brasil has 2 inches of height advantage
Thainara has a slight reach advantage despite being shorter
Fight History
Dominated with 110 strikes, 5 takedowns and over 10 minutes of control time. Convincing win in Australia.
Unanimous DecisionUFC debut with a rear-naked choke in round 1. Earned $50k Performance of the Night bonus.
Sub R1 (4:32)Contender Series win that earned her UFC contract. Beat former training partner.
Unanimous DecisionOnly professional loss. Brasil guillotine choke at 0:33 of round 3 at Thunder Fight 20.
Sub R3 (0:33)Unanimous decision loss (28-29, 28-29, 28-29). Quick turnaround, fighting again in less than 2 months.
Unanimous DecisionRoad to UFC win in Shanghai. Below-regular UFC level opponent.
Unanimous DecisionStepped up on short notice at UFC 312 and lost by unanimous decision (27-30, 27-30, 27-30). Completely dominated.
Unanimous DecisionSolid unanimous decision win (30-27, 30-27, 29-28) at UFC 304 in Manchester.
Unanimous DecisionUnanimous decision loss (28-29, 28-29, 28-29). Competitive fight but insufficient in later rounds.
Unanimous DecisionSkills Profile
Stand-up Striking
ThainaraThainara has absurd volume at 5.73 SLpM with 70% defense. Brasil is more accurate (56%) but produces far less volume (2.66 SLpM).
Jiu-Jitsu & Submissions
ThainaraThainara is a black belt with 8 submission wins (5 RNCs, 3 armbars). Brasil has a brown belt and 2 career subs.
Wrestling & Takedowns
ThainaraThainara converts 85% of takedowns and defends 85%. Brasil converts 64% and defends only 53%. Massive gap.
Overall Defense
ThainaraThainara defends 70% of strikes and 85% of takedowns. Brasil sits at 52% and 53%. Significant gap across all defensive areas.
Cardio & Pace
ThainaraThainara maintained high volume through 3 rounds vs Lookboonmee with 10 min control time. Brasil tends to drop off in later rounds.
UFC Experience
BrasilBrasil has 8 UFC fights vs only 2 for Thainara. However, the quality of Thainara's performances partially offsets the gap.
Thainara dominates in virtually every technical category: strike volume, jiu-jitsu, wrestling, and defense. Brasil has the experience edge with 8 UFC fights, but her numbers across all metrics are inferior. Brasil's only concrete advantage is history, having submitted Thainara in 2019. But the 2026 Thainara is a completely different fighter from 7 years ago.
Win Distribution
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Completely different profiles. Thainara is a natural finisher with 62% wins by submission (8 subs, including 5 RNCs and 3 armbars) and zero knockouts. Brasil is more diversified with 3 KOs, 2 submissions, and 6 decisions, but no dominant path. When Thainara takes it to the ground, she finishes. Brasil needs to maintain distance and avoid the clinch at all costs.
Final Prediction
Vencedor Previsto
Thainara
Submission or Unanimous Decision|Confidence MEDIUM-HIGH
Thainara has evolved tremendously since her loss to Brasil in 2019. In 11 consecutive fights since that guillotine, she hasn't lost. Her UFC numbers are impressive: 5.73 SLpM, 85% takedown accuracy, 85% takedown defense, and 70% strike defense. Brasil, on the other hand, is coming off a loss to Ketlen Souza with a turnaround of less than 2 months. Brasil's 53% takedown defense is concerning against someone who converts 85%. If Thainara decides to take it down, she will, and on the ground she's a black belt with 8 career submissions.
X-Factor
Thainara's personal revenge
Brasil is the only person to have defeated Thainara professionally. This fight carries enormous emotional weight. Thainara worked in construction before making it to the UFC and now has the chance to erase the only blemish on her record against the same person, on the biggest stage in the sport.
Upset Alert
The guillotine still lives in memory
Brasil has already proven she can submit Thainara. If she can lock in the clinch and hunt for the guillotine again, she could repeat history. Thainara will need to manage her rematch anxiety without over-exposing herself in the standup, where Brasil has better accuracy (56% vs 40%).
UFC NEWS HUB - Preliminary Analysis
Thainara vs Brasil | UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs Pyfer | Women's Strawweight (115 lbs)