May 9, 2026 · Prudential Center, Newark, New Jersey
Sabatini
21-5-0
N/R FeatherweightPhiladelphia, Pennsylvania | Age 33
Gomis
15-2-0
N/R FeatherweightParis, France | Age 28
Wrestler vs French Striker
Sabatini 4.48 TD/15min, 62% sub rate, three straight wins. Gomis French striker with 5 wins in 6 UFC. Wrestler vs striker — classic.
THE DECIDING POINT
Wrestling Pressure vs Striker Without Proven TDD
Sabatini is the American wrestler-grappler (21-5, 62% career sub rate) with 4.48 takedowns per 15 minutes — among the highest in UFC featherweight. Coming off three straight wins (Brito UD, Mariscal UD, Pearce sub R2). Gomis is the French striker (15-2, 5W in 6 UFC) with a technical-boxer profile and good cardio, but TDD that hasn't been tested by an elite wrestler. Stylistically, this is the textbook grappler-vs-striker fight: if Sabatini gets the takedown (and 4.48 TD/15min says he will), the Frenchman ends up on the ground with a clear disadvantage. Market opened Sabatini — and they're right.
Tale of the Tape
Gomis 5 years younger.
Gomis 3 inches taller.
Gomis +2 inches.
Same stance.
BJJ-heavy camp vs French camp.
Current Form
Pat Sabatini
Wrestling-heavy UD.
UDUD over 3 rounds.
UDR2 sub.
Sub R2R1 KO.
KO R1R1 TKO.
TKO R1Three straight UFC wins (Brito UD, Mariscal UD, Pearce sub R2). 62% career sub rate. 4.48 TD/15min. Trains BJJ in Philadelphia.
William Gomis
UD over 3 rounds.
UDUD over 3 rounds.
UDUD to Brito.
UDUD over 3 rounds.
UDUD to the Spaniard.
UD5 wins in 6 UFC fights. Coming off a UD over Robert Ruchala at UFC FN 256 (May 2025). Technical French striker, age 28.
Level of Competition
Common opponent: Joanderson Brito. BOTH beat Brito. Sabatini beat Brito via UD in July 2025, Gomis beat Brito via SD in September 2024. Neutral transitivity. Both proved capable of beating a ranked prospect.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes per Minute
Gomis volume edge on the feet.
Striking Accuracy (%)
Gomis slight edge.
Takedowns per 15 Min
Sabatini 9x more offensive wrestling.
Submissions per 15 Min
Sabatini submission specialist.
Takedown Defense (%)
Sabatini better TDD.
Sabatini leads in 3 categories · Gomis leads in 2
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Sabatini 62% by sub (classic jiu-jitsu profile). Gomis 47% by KO/TKO + 46% by decision (technical French striker with more KO power than the stereotype suggests). Only 1 career sub for the Frenchman.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Sabatini 60% of losses by KO/TKO (3 of 5): Damon Jackson TKO R1 (UFC Fight Night 210), Diego Lopes KO R1 (UFC 295), Gonzalez TKO R1 at CFFC (broken arm, 46 seconds). Pattern: folds quickly to explosive strikers when striking gets honest. Gomis has 3 losses, ZERO by KO — reliable French chin. 1 sub (Charriere 2016 early career) and 2 decisions (including Hyder Amil March 2025). For value bets: Gomis by KO/TKO is a realistic path given Sabatini's pattern against strikers; Sabatini by sub runs into the French armor against finishes.
Skills Profile
Sabatini
vs
Gomis
Wrestling / Takedowns
+5 Sabatini
Sabatini 4.48 TD/15min vs Gomis 0.5. Identity.
Ground Game / BJJ
+5 Sabatini
62% sub rate from Sabatini. Gomis without offensive ground game.
Striking on the Feet
+3 Gomis
Gomis 4.5 SLpM vs 3.2. Technical striker.
Takedown Defense
+2 Sabatini
Sabatini 70% TDD vs 58%.
Cardio (3 rounds)
Even
Both proven across 3 rounds.
Range / Physical
+2 Gomis
Gomis 2 inches reach + 3 inches height.
Sabatini dominates on the ground. Gomis on the feet. For Gomis to win, he needs to defend 70%+ takedowns across 3 rounds.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
The thesis is: Pat Sabatini wins because, first, he has 4.48 takedowns per 15 minutes (among the highest in UFC featherweight) and 70% TDD.
The thesis is: Pat Sabatini wins because, first, he has 4.48 takedowns per 15 minutes (among the highest in UFC featherweight) and 70% TDD.
Second, 62% career sub rate against a striker without offensive ground game.
Third, the Brito common opponent shows slight transitivity edge. Path: takedown in R1, hunt the sub or top control across 3 rounds. Falls apart if Gomis defends 70%+ of takedowns.
Conviction
Conviction 7 because three dimensions converge strongly. Not 8 because Gomis is on a hot streak with 5W in 6 UFC and good cardio.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
Gomis defends every takedown across 3 rounds
- 02
Sabatini doesn't have cardio for cumulative wrestling
- 03
Gomis lands a shot in transition
- 04
Sabatini's age 33 weighs against a striker 5 years younger
Underdog Path
Gomis sprawls the takedowns, keeps distance on the feet, stacks volume with 4.5 SLpM. 30-27 cards or KO in R3.
Required Conditions
- 70%+ TDD across 3 rounds
- Keep distance on the feet
- Cardio holds against wrestling pressure
- Don't get caught in scrambles
— Precedent: Gomis lost to Brito (who lost to Sabatini) via UD. Direct precedent against him, but Gomis can learn.
Verdict
Winner
Pat Sabatini
Method
Submission or Decision
Most Likely
- 01
Winner
Pat Sabatini
Real probability 65%, implied = 67%. No big edge.
- 02
Method
Sabatini by Submission
Sabatini 62% sub rate + 13 subs in 21 wins. Gomis without bottom defense. Real probability 35-40%, real edge.
- 03
Total Rounds
Sabatini ITD (inside the distance)
Real probability 30-35%, edge.
Most Likely Outcome
Sabatini by Submission
Highest expected edge on the fight. Sabatini has a specific finishing profile and Gomis doesn't have the bottom defense.
Stats That Matter
4.48
Sabatini's takedowns per 15 minutes
Among the highest in UFC featherweight.
13
Sabatini's submissions in 21 wins
62% sub rate. Submission specialist.
3
Sabatini's straight wins
Brito, Mariscal, Pearce.
58%
Gomis's TDD
Untested against a 4.48 TD/15min wrestler.
The Trap
The Trap: Gomis by Decision
The market may pay Gomis by decision based on his 5W UFC. But for Gomis to reach a decision, he has to defend Sabatini takedowns across 3 rounds — something a 58% TDD doesn't sustain against 4.48 TD/15min.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Pat Sabatini vs William Gomis | UFC 328: Chimaev vs Strickland | May 9, 2026 | Prudential Center, Newark, New Jersey