UFC 328: Chimaev vs Strickland · May 9, 2026 · Middleweight (185 lbs) · 3R
Susurkaev vs Santos
Undefeated Russian vs Durable Brazilian
Susurkaev 11-0 with two UFC finishes. Santos 1-1 UFC with a UD over Barlow. Momentum vs durability. Akhmat camp ascending.
Baisangur Susurkaev
11-0-0 · N/R Middleweight
Djorden Santos
11-2-0 · N/R Middleweight
In 30 seconds
Baisangur Susurkaev wins by KO/TKO or Decision
- 11-0Susurkaev's undefeated record2 straight UFC finishes.
- 105Strikes landed at UFC 32273% accuracy. Volume and accuracy.
- 1-1Santos's UFC recordUD over Barlow after a debut L to Diaz.
The key to the fight
THE X-FACTOR
Undefeated Russian Hits 105 Strikes at 73% Accuracy
Susurkaev is the undefeated knockout machine from the 2024 Contender Series, 11-0 career with two straight UFC finishes (debut at UFC FN 257, then TKO R3 over Eric McConico at UFC 322 where he landed 105 strikes at 73% accuracy). Akhmat camp ascending.
Santos is the 1-1 UFC Brazilian: lost his debut UD to Ozzy Diaz at UFC 313, but bounced back with a UD over Danny Barlow in October. Overwhelming momentum for the Russian, but Santos has shown durability going to decision twice in a row. Stylistically, this is hot Russian striker vs durable journeyman.
Tale of the Tape
| Susurkaev | Tale of the Tape | Santos |
|---|---|---|
| 26 years | AgeSame age basically. | 27 years |
| 6'0" | HeightSusurkaev 1 inch taller. | 5'11" |
| 74" | ReachSusurkaev +2 inches. | 72" |
| Orthodox | StanceSame stance. | Orthodox |
| Akhmat MMA | CampElite Russian camp vs unconfirmed camp. | N/D |
Current form
Opponent caliber in recent fights
| Fighter | Date | Opponent | Result | Method | Opponent caliber |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baisangur Susurkaev | Mar 2025 | Regional | W | KO | 1 |
| Baisangur Susurkaev | May 2025 | Regional | W | TKO | 1 |
| Baisangur Susurkaev | Sep 2025 | UFC Debut | W | TKO | 1 |
| Baisangur Susurkaev | Sep 2025 | DWCS Contract | W | Sub | 1 |
| Baisangur Susurkaev | Nov 2025 | Eric McConico | W | TKO R3 | 1 |
| Djorden Santos | Mar 2024 | Regional | W | TKO | 1 |
| Djorden Santos | May 2024 | Regional | W | UD | 1 |
| Djorden Santos | Sep 2024 | DWCS | W | TKO | 1 |
| Djorden Santos | Mar 2025 | Ozzy Diaz | L | UD | 1 |
| Djorden Santos | Oct 2025 | Danny Barlow | W | UD | 1 |
Baisangur Susurkaev · On Fire
Undefeated 11-0. Two straight UFC finishes (debut at UFC FN 257, TKO R3 McConico at UFC 322). 105 strikes at 73% accuracy in the last fight. Akhmat camp.
Djorden Santos · Mixed Momentum
1-1 UFC. Coming off a UD over Danny Barlow in October 2025. Before that, lost UD to Ozzy Diaz in his UFC debut.
Level of competition
Susurkaev
Average opponent level (1 to 5)1
Record5W-0L (last 5)
Against the top 50W-0L
Santos
Average opponent level (1 to 5)1
Record4W-1L (last 5)
Against the top 50W-0L
No common opponents. Calibre low for both (UFC newcomers facing other newcomers), but Susurkaev's overwhelming momentum (5-0 last 5 with 4 finishes). Santos 4-1 with decision wins.
Stats
Sig. Strikes per MinuteSusurkaev volume edge.
Striking Accuracy (%)Susurkaev hit 73% in his last fight, 65% average.
Strikes Absorbed/Min (lower is better)Susurkaev absorbs less.
Striking Defense (%)Susurkaev edge.
Takedowns per 15 MinEven.
Takedown Defense (%)Susurkaev better TDD.
How they win and lose
Susurkaev
- KO/TKO 82% (9)
- Submission 9% (1)
- Decision 9% (1)
No losses
Santos
- KO/TKO 27% (3)
- Submission 37% (4)
- Decision 36% (4)
- KO/TKO 0% (0)
- Submission 0% (0)
- Decision 100% (2)
Susurkaev 82% career KO/TKO finish rate (9 of 11) — extreme finisher. Santos spread across KO (27%), sub (36%) and dec (37%) — grappler-jiu-jitsu profile more than durable journeyman. Both 11 career wins.
Susurkaev is officially UNDEFEATED (11-0-0) — never lost on the pro record. Santos has 2 losses, BOTH by decision (Ozzy Diaz UD UFC debut at UFC 313 and Cristian Torres in regional). Santos has NEVER been finished, durable chin + sub defense.
For value bets: Susurkaev by KO/TKO is realistic given his 82% finish rate, but Santos defends finishes well. A decision for the undefeated prospect is also live given the Santos sample.
Skills
Where each fighter has the edge
1. Striking / VolumeEdge: Susurkaev (4/5)
Susurkaev 5.5 SLpM with 73% accuracy in his last fight. Santos 3.5 SLpM.
2. Knockout PowerEdge: Susurkaev (3/5)
Susurkaev 8 finishes in 11 wins. Santos only 1 UFC finish.
3. Wrestling / TakedownsEven
Even, both prefer striking.
4. Striking DefenseEdge: Susurkaev (2/5)
Susurkaev 60% Str.Def vs 50%.
5. Cardio (3 rounds)Edge: Santos (1/5)
Santos has shown it in 2 UDs. Susurkaev finished in R3 against McConico, cardio is OK.
6. UFC ExperienceEdge: Santos (1/5)
Santos 2 UFC (1-1). Susurkaev 2 UFC (2-0).
Susurkaev dominates almost every metric (volume, accuracy, KO power). Santos only has durability. For Santos to win, he has to absorb everything and take it to the cards.
Full prediction
The thesis
The thesis is: Susurkaev wins because, first, he's undefeated 11-0 with 2 UFC finishes and 105 strikes at 73% accuracy in his last fight. Second, 2-inch reach over Santos and Akhmat camp. Third, Santos has the durability profile but no KO power to threaten the Russian. Path: pressure from R1, hunt the finish or 30-27 cards. Falls apart if Santos absorbs everything and Russian's cardio fades.
Conviction 7 because four dimensions converge but the calibre of both is low (newcomers facing newcomers).
What breaks the thesis
- Santos absorbs everything in the first 10 minutes
- Susurkaev's cardio fades in R3
- Santos finds the timing on the feet
- Russian loses patience and makes a mistake
The underdog's path
Santos holds the Susurkaev pressure across the first two rounds with absorbing defense. Russian fades in R3. Santos stacks volume late and takes a tight decision.
- Hold pressure in rounds 1-2
- Cardio better than the Russian
- Cumulative volume in R3
- Avoid getting finished