May 9, 2026 · Prudential Center, Newark, New Jersey
Susurkaev
11-0-0
N/R MiddleweightChechnya | Age 26
Santos
11-2-0
N/R MiddleweightBrazil | Age 27
Undefeated Russian vs Durable Brazilian
Susurkaev 11-0 with two UFC finishes. Santos 1-1 UFC with a UD over Barlow. Momentum vs durability. Akhmat camp ascending.
THE X-FACTOR
Undefeated Russian Hits 105 Strikes at 73% Accuracy
Susurkaev is the undefeated knockout machine from the 2024 Contender Series, 11-0 career with two straight UFC finishes (debut at UFC FN 257, then TKO R3 over Eric McConico at UFC 322 where he landed 105 strikes at 73% accuracy). Akhmat camp ascending. Santos is the 1-1 UFC Brazilian: lost his debut UD to Ozzy Diaz at UFC 313, but bounced back with a UD over Danny Barlow in October. Overwhelming momentum for the Russian, but Santos has shown durability going to decision twice in a row. Stylistically, this is hot Russian striker vs durable journeyman.
Tale of the Tape
Same age basically.
Susurkaev 1 inch taller.
Susurkaev +2 inches.
Same stance.
Elite Russian camp vs unconfirmed camp.
Current Form
Baisangur Susurkaev
R3 TKO, 105 strikes at 73%.
TKO R3UFC debut 4 days after DWCS.
TKOContender Series, UFC contract.
SubRegional win.
TKORegional KO.
KOUndefeated 11-0. Two straight UFC finishes (debut at UFC FN 257, TKO R3 McConico at UFC 322). 105 strikes at 73% accuracy in the last fight. Akhmat camp.
Djorden Santos
UD over 3 rounds.
UDUD to Diaz.
UDContender Series, UFC contract.
TKORegional win.
UDRegional TKO.
TKO1-1 UFC. Coming off a UD over Danny Barlow in October 2025. Before that, lost UD to Ozzy Diaz in his UFC debut.
Level of Competition
No common opponents. Calibre low for both (UFC newcomers facing other newcomers), but Susurkaev's overwhelming momentum (5-0 last 5 with 4 finishes). Santos 4-1 with decision wins.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes per Minute
Susurkaev volume edge.
Striking Accuracy (%)
Susurkaev hit 73% in his last fight, 65% average.
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Susurkaev absorbs less.
Striking Defense (%)
Susurkaev edge.
Takedowns per 15 Min
Even.
Takedown Defense (%)
Susurkaev better TDD.
Susurkaev leads in 6 categories · Santos leads in 0
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Susurkaev 82% career KO/TKO finish rate (9 of 11) — extreme finisher. Santos spread across KO (27%), sub (36%) and dec (37%) — grappler-jiu-jitsu profile more than durable journeyman. Both 11 career wins.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Susurkaev is officially UNDEFEATED (11-0-0) — never lost on the pro record. Santos has 2 losses, BOTH by decision (Ozzy Diaz UD UFC debut at UFC 313 and Cristian Torres in regional). Santos has NEVER been finished, durable chin + sub defense. For value bets: Susurkaev by KO/TKO is realistic given his 82% finish rate, but Santos defends finishes well. A decision for the undefeated prospect is also live given the Santos sample.
Skills Profile
Susurkaev
vs
Santos
Striking / Volume
+4 Susurkaev
Susurkaev 5.5 SLpM with 73% accuracy in his last fight. Santos 3.5 SLpM.
Knockout Power
+3 Susurkaev
Susurkaev 8 finishes in 11 wins. Santos only 1 UFC finish.
Wrestling / Takedowns
Even
Even, both prefer striking.
Striking Defense
+2 Susurkaev
Susurkaev 60% Str.Def vs 50%.
Cardio (3 rounds)
+1 Santos
Santos has shown it in 2 UDs. Susurkaev finished in R3 against McConico, cardio is OK.
UFC Experience
+1 Santos
Santos 2 UFC (1-1). Susurkaev 2 UFC (2-0).
Susurkaev dominates almost every metric (volume, accuracy, KO power). Santos only has durability. For Santos to win, he has to absorb everything and take it to the cards.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
The thesis is: Susurkaev wins because, first, he's undefeated 11-0 with 2 UFC finishes and 105 strikes at 73% accuracy in his last fight.
The thesis is: Susurkaev wins because, first, he's undefeated 11-0 with 2 UFC finishes and 105 strikes at 73% accuracy in his last fight.
Second, 2-inch reach over Santos and Akhmat camp.
Third, Santos has the durability profile but no KO power to threaten the Russian. Path: pressure from R1, hunt the finish or 30-27 cards. Falls apart if Santos absorbs everything and Russian's cardio fades.
Conviction
Conviction 7 because four dimensions converge but the calibre of both is low (newcomers facing newcomers).
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
Santos absorbs everything in the first 10 minutes
- 02
Susurkaev's cardio fades in R3
- 03
Santos finds the timing on the feet
- 04
Russian loses patience and makes a mistake
Underdog Path
Santos holds the Susurkaev pressure across the first two rounds with absorbing defense. Russian fades in R3. Santos stacks volume late and takes a tight decision.
Required Conditions
- Hold pressure in rounds 1-2
- Cardio better than the Russian
- Cumulative volume in R3
- Avoid getting finished
— Precedent: Santos went 25 minutes with Diaz and Barlow back-to-back. Durability proven. But Susurkaev is a level above.
Verdict
Winner
Baisangur Susurkaev
Method
KO/TKO or Decision
Most Likely
- 01
Winner
Baisangur Susurkaev
Probability 65%, implied = 75%. No big edge.
- 02
Method
Susurkaev by KO/TKO
Susurkaev 45% KO + Santos durable but no granite chin. Real probability 35-40%, edge.
Most Likely Outcome
Susurkaev by KO/TKO
Undefeated Russian with 73% accuracy in his last fight.
Stats That Matter
11-0
Susurkaev's undefeated record
2 straight UFC finishes.
105
Strikes landed at UFC 322
73% accuracy. Volume and accuracy.
1-1
Santos's UFC record
UD over Barlow after a debut L to Diaz.
+2"
Susurkaev's reach edge
74 vs 72.
The Trap
The Trap: Santos by Decision
The market may pay Santos by decision via the durability profile. But Susurkaev has 8 finishes in 11 and the Akhmat camp — finishing profile against durable opponents too.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Baisangur Susurkaev vs Djorden Santos | UFC 328: Chimaev vs Strickland | May 9, 2026 | Prudential Center, Newark, New Jersey