UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs Murphy • Lightweight (155 lbs) • 3 Rounds
March 21, 2026
Rock
12-2-1
Al-Selwady
15-4-0
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes Per Minute
Al-Selwady has more than double the strike volume, Rock relies on grappling
Striking Accuracy (%)
Rock lands just 35% of strikes, indicating inferior striking
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Rock absorbed many strikes in the loss to Aliev, lacking stand-up defense
Strike Defense (%)
Takedowns Per 15 Min
Rock needs takedowns to impose his world-class jiu-jitsu
Takedown Accuracy (%)
Takedown Defense (%)
Al-Selwady defends takedowns well, could frustrate Rock's gameplan
Rock leads in 1 categories · Al-Selwady leads in 6
Tale of the Tape
Rock has a 7cm height advantage
Rock has 4 inches more reach
Southpaw vs orthodox dynamic
Fight History
UFC debut dominated by Aliev. Couldn't impose his grappling and was outclassed on the feet for 3 rounds.
Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)Split decision win at Oktagon MMA 71, showed the ability to fight 3 full rounds.
Split DecisionTechnical rear-naked choke submission in the first round at Oktagon MMA 58.
Sub R1 (RNC)Another rear-naked choke in the first round at Oktagon MMA 56.
Sub R1 (RNC)Rear-naked choke at Oktagon MMA 45, third consecutive submission.
Sub R1 (RNC)Knocked out early in the third round on his UFC debut. Fight was competitive until the fatal blow. Been inactive since with two canceled bouts.
KO R3 (0:49)Unanimous decision win on DWCS, earned UFC contract by beating a strong prospect.
Unanimous DecisionUnanimous decision win in a 5-round fight at Fury FC 75.
Unanimous DecisionFirst-round TKO at Fury FC 69, finish by punches.
TKO R1Unanimous decision at Fury FC 58, part of 5-fight win streak before DWCS.
Unanimous DecisionSkills Profile
Stand-up Striking
Al-SelwadyAl-Selwady comes from kickboxing with all Jordanian national titles. Rock is limited on the feet, just 35% accuracy.
Knockout Power
Al-SelwadyAl-Selwady has 8 KOs in 15 wins (53%). Rock has just 2 career KOs, his game isn't based on power.
Jiu-Jitsu & Submissions
RockRock is a jiu-jitsu specialist with 9 submissions, including 7 by RNC or variation. World-class grappling.
Wrestling & Takedowns
RockRock needs the takedown to win. Has high volume of attempts but just 38% accuracy. Everything depends on getting it to the ground.
Cardio & Pace
RockRock maintains constant pressure seeking the clinch. Al-Selwady was KO'd in R3 by Radzhabov, possible sign of late fatigue.
UFC Experience
Al-SelwadyAl-Selwady has 1 UFC fight (0W-1L) but much more professional experience (15-4). Rock also lost his only octagon fight dominantly.
A classic striker vs grappler matchup. Al-Selwady wants to keep it standing where he has an overwhelming advantage. Rock desperately needs the takedown to use his world-class jiu-jitsu. If Rock gets a grip, he's too dangerous on the ground. If Al-Selwady maintains distance, he can dominate on the feet.
Win Distribution
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Completely opposite profiles. Rock wins 75% by submission, a pure submission specialist. Al-Selwady wins 53% by knockout, a natural striker. If Rock gets the takedown, the submission is likely coming. If Al-Selwady keeps distance, the knockout is a matter of time.
Final Prediction
Vencedor Previsto
Al-Selwady
KO/TKO R2|Confidence MEDIUM
Al-Selwady has a clear striking advantage with significantly superior volume, accuracy, and knockout power. Rock was completely dominated on the feet in his UFC debut against Aliev, showing that his transition from pure grappling to high-level MMA isn't complete yet. Al-Selwady has 75% takedown defense, which complicates Rock's gameplan. However, Rock's jiu-jitsu is genuinely elite and a single takedown can change everything. Rock fights at home on British soil, which gives him extra confidence.
X-Factor
Rock's world-class jiu-jitsu
With 9 career submissions, 7 of them by RNC or variation, Rock is probably the best grappler in the division. If he gets a grip and takes it down, Al-Selwady is in real danger. A single takedown can decide the fight.
Upset Alert
Rock could surprise with the home factor
Rock fights at home in the O2 Arena in London and the British crowd will push the Brit. If he can survive the initial striking and impose the clinch against the cage, his jiu-jitsu could be decisive. Al-Selwady was KO'd in R3 before.
UFC NEWS HUB - Preliminary Analysis
Rock vs Al-Selwady | UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs Murphy | Lightweight (155 lbs)