UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs Murphy • Heavyweight (265 lbs) • 3 Rounds
March 21, 2026
Pinto
11-0-0
Franco
10-1-0
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes Per Minute
Pinto has impressive volume for a heavyweight, nearly 6 strikes per minute
Striking Accuracy (%)
Pinto has an absurd 73% accuracy, an elite number in the division
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Pinto absorbs less because he's more technical and finishes fast
Strike Defense (%)
Franco has below-average defense, could be exposed against an elite striker
Takedowns Per 15 Min
Franco has a jiu-jitsu background and may try to take it to the ground
Takedown Accuracy (%)
Takedown Defense (%)
Pinto defends takedowns solidly and is dangerous when standing
Pinto leads in 6 categories · Franco leads in 1
Tale of the Tape
Both young for the division
Pinto has an 11cm height advantage
Pinto has 3 inches more reach
Fight History
Dominated with ground-and-pound against his compatriot at UFC Rio. Kept his undefeated record.
TKO R2 (ground-and-pound)UFC debut with a knockout 39 seconds into R2. Devastating overhand right.
KO R2 (0:39)Quick knockout on DWCS, earned UFC contract.
KO R1 (1:43)Unanimous decision win in a 5-round Levels Fight League title fight.
Unanimous DecisionThird-round TKO at Levels Fight League, defending the title.
TKO R3 (1:18)First-round submission on the Brazilian regional scene, recovery after DWCS loss.
Sub R1 (RNC, 4:05)TKO in 32 seconds, showed explosive power on his return after the DWCS loss.
TKO R1 (0:32)Lost on DWCS by third-round submission. Missed the contract on his first attempt.
Sub R3 (RNC, 4:48)Arm-triangle submission on the Brazilian regional circuit.
Sub R1 (arm-triangle, 1:10)Quick first-round TKO at a regional event in northeastern Brazil.
TKO R1 (2:21)Skills Profile
Stand-up Striking
PintoPinto has 73% striking accuracy in the UFC and power in both hands. Franco is more raw and less technical.
Knockout Power
PintoPinto knocked out Lane in 39 seconds and has 7 career KOs. His overhand right is devastating in the division.
Wrestling & Grappling
FrancoFranco has a jiu-jitsu background with competitions in Bahia. Won by submission recently. Slight ground advantage.
Overall Defense
PintoPinto defends better overall. Franco was submitted on DWCS and has concerning strike defense.
Cardio & Pace
PintoPinto showed the ability to maintain pace into R2 against Diniz. Franco lost in R3 on DWCS from fatigue.
Octagon Experience
PintoPinto has 2 UFC fights (2W-0L) with 2 finishes. Franco makes his UFC debut on short notice.
Pinto is clearly the favorite with more technical striking, octagon experience, and an undefeated record. Franco brings courage and ground submission power, but the leap from the Brazilian regional circuit to the UFC is enormous. Pinto's physical advantages in height and reach should be decisive.
Win Distribution
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Both are finishers who prefer to end things early. Pinto has 64% KOs and Franco 60%, with Franco adding 40% submissions. Zero decision wins for Franco indicates he always looks for the finish. This fight has explosive potential.
Final Prediction
Vencedor Previsto
Pinto
TKO R2|Confidence MEDIUM-HIGH
Mario Pinto is one of the most exciting heavyweight prospects, undefeated at 11-0 with 73% striking accuracy. He has a massive physical advantage with 11cm of height and 3 inches of reach over Franco, plus 2 UFC wins versus 0 for his opponent. Franco is brave and has power, but is taking this fight on short notice against a rival fighting at home. Franco's level of opposition on the Brazilian regional circuit is incomparable to what Pinto has already faced. The Portuguese fighter based in London should use his reach to dominate from distance and look for the finish in the second round.
X-Factor
Pinto's elite accuracy
With 73% striking accuracy in the UFC, Pinto lands nearly 3 out of every 4 shots. Against an opponent with 45% strike defense, that's a recipe for a knockout.
Upset Alert
Franco could surprise on the ground
Franco has a jiu-jitsu background and 4 submission wins. If he can take Pinto down with an unexpected takedown, he has the tools to look for the submission. It wouldn't be the first time a short-notice debutant pulled off an upset.
UFC NEWS HUB - Preliminary Analysis
Pinto vs Franco | UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs Murphy | Heavyweight (265 lbs)