May 9, 2026 · Prudential Center, Newark, New Jersey
Miller
38-19-0
N/R LightweightSparta, New Jersey | Age 42
Gordon
21-8-0
N/R LightweightQueens, New York | Age 37
The 47th UFC Fight
Miller extends the all-time record. 42, fighting in Newark, 13 UFC submissions (2nd-most ever). Gordon 37 with a recent TKO loss. Legend vs journeyman.
THE X-FACTOR
Miller at Home, Legend Extends the Record
Miller steps into his 47th UFC fight (all-time promotion record) at home in New Jersey, with a 38-19 career mark (27-18 UFC), 17 UFC lightweight wins (record) and 13 UFC submissions (2nd-most ever, only Charles Oliveira ahead). At 42 he just submitted Damon Jackson via guillotine in R1 at UFC 309 (November 2024). Gordon is the durable journeyman at 37, 21-8 career (9-7 UFC), ate a R3 TKO from Rafa Garcia in September 2025 — but before that came a R1 KO over Thiago Moises. Close in age (5-year gap), Miller has the history, the home crowd, and the BJJ to land one more finish.
Tale of the Tape
Gordon 5 years younger.
Miller 2 inches taller.
Even.
Southpaw vs orthodox matchup.
New Jersey camp vs New York camp.
Current Form
Jim Miller
UD at UFC 314.
UDGuillotine in R1.
Sub R1 (guillotine)R1 sub.
Sub R1UD to Green at UFC 300.
UDR1 sub.
Sub R147th UFC fight. Coming off a UD loss to Chase Hooper at UFC 314 (April 2025). Before that submitted Damon Jackson via guillotine in R1 at UFC 309 (November 2024). 42 years old, 38-19 career, BJJ black belt. Trains at AMA Fight Club in New Jersey.
Jared Gordon
R3 TKO.
TKO R3R1 KO.
KO R1UD over 3 rounds.
UDRematch context.
Split DecisionUD over 3 rounds.
UDComing off a R3 TKO loss to Rafa Garcia at UFC Fight Night 259 (September 2025). Before that, R1 KO over Thiago Moises at UFC FN 256 (May 2025). 21-8 career, 9-7 UFC, durable journeyman.
Level of Competition
They've fought before in October 2024: Gordon beat Miller via split decision. Rematch in Miller's 47th UFC fight. Calibre similar between them with journeyman lateral profile.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes per Minute
Gordon volume edge on the feet.
Striking Accuracy (%)
Even.
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Even, Miller slight edge.
Striking Defense (%)
Miller slight edge.
Takedowns per 15 Min
Gordon more offensive wrestling.
Submissions per 15 Min
Miller submission specialist.
Takedown Defense (%)
Miller slight edge.
Miller leads in 4 categories · Gordon leads in 3
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Miller finishes 55% by sub (classic UFC jiu-jitsu profile, 13 UFC subs = 2nd-most ever). Gordon decisions 52% (11 of 21) — durable journeyman profile that takes it to the cards. The numbers back the thesis of Miller hunting the ground.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Miller loses 74% by decision (14 of 19) — legendary durability at 41, a chin that held up 19 years in the UFC. Only 2 KOs absorbed (Hooker, Cerrone) in 38 UFC fights. The 3 subs came from specialists (Oliveira RNC, Chiesa, Diaz). Gordon 62% of losses by KO/TKO (5 of 8): Ferreira TKO R1, Joaquim Silva KO R3, García TKO R3. Plus 1 sub: Dawson RNC R3 (2022). Clear pattern: Gordon is finish-vulnerable (75% of losses by finish), exactly Miller's lane (55% sub finish rate plus vintage BJJ). For value bets: Miller by sub closes the thesis.
Skills Profile
Miller
vs
Gordon
Ground Game / BJJ
+4 Miller
Miller black belt with 13 UFC subs (2nd-most ever).
Volume / Stand-up Boxing
+1 Gordon
Gordon 4.0 SLpM vs Miller 3.4.
Fight IQ / Experience
+3 Miller
Miller 47th UFC, all-time record. Gordon 17th UFC.
Wrestling
+1 Gordon
Gordon more offensive wrestling.
Cardio (3 rounds)
Even
Both proven across 3 rounds.
Home / Mental
+2 Miller
Miller fighting in Newark, 47th UFC, record to extend.
Miller dominates on the ground (BJJ, finishes). Gordon has stand-up volume and offensive wrestling. For Miller to win, he needs to pull guard or force scrambles.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
The thesis is: Jim Miller wins because, first, he's at home in Newark for his 47th UFC fight (all-time record), a narrative that historically helps a hometown veteran in close decisions.
The thesis is: Jim Miller wins because, first, he's at home in Newark for his 47th UFC fight (all-time record), a narrative that historically helps a hometown veteran in close decisions.
Second, he just submitted Damon Jackson via guillotine in R1 at UFC 309 — the BJJ is still finishing at 42.
Third, 13 UFC submissions (2nd-most ever) against Gordon who is not an elite grappler. Path: guillotine or D'Arce in scrambles in R1-R2, or 30-27 cards via veteran work. Falls apart if Gordon repeats the first-fight blueprint (stand-up volume, distance) and takes another SD.
Conviction
Conviction 5 because it's a coinflip between veterans, with Gordon already taking the first fight. I see Miller winning via home crowd + BJJ + recent finish, but it's a tight one.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
Gordon repeats the first-fight blueprint (SD October 2024)
- 02
Miller's age 42 weighs against a fighter 5 years younger
- 03
Gordon keeps distance and prevents scrambles
- 04
Miller's cardio fades in R3
Underdog Path
Gordon keeps distance on the feet, avoids the clinch and scrambles Miller wants. Stacks volume with 4.0 SLpM vs 3.4. 29-28 or 30-27 cards.
Required Conditions
- Sprawl Miller's takedown attempts
- Keep distance on the feet
- Cash in on 5 years of youth for cardio
- Cumulative volume across 3 rounds
— Precedent: Gordon beat Miller in October 2024 by SD. Direct precedent. For Miller to flip the script, he needs something different this time (more aggressive BJJ, home crowd).
Verdict
Winner
Jim Miller
Method
Decision or late submission
Most Likely
- 01
Winner
Jim Miller
Real probability 52%, implied = 56.5%. No big edge.
- 02
Method
Miller by Submission
Miller 13 UFC subs (2nd-most ever). Just submitted Jackson via guillotine. Real probability 25-30%, real edge.
- 03
Total Rounds
Over 2.5 rounds
Both durable veterans, 5 of their last 8 combined went the distance.
Most Likely Outcome
Miller by Submission
Highest expected edge on the fight. Miller has a specific UFC finishing profile (13 subs all-time #2) and Gordon isn't an elite sub-defense fighter.
Stats That Matter
47th
Miller's UFC fight, all-time record
Extends the promotion record, 38-19 career.
13
Miller's career UFC submissions
2nd-most ever, only Charles Oliveira ahead.
17
Miller's career UFC lightweight wins
Division record.
SD
Result of their first fight
Gordon won by split decision in October 2024.
The Trap
The Trap: Gordon Wins the Same Way
The market may pay Gordon as 'won before, wins again' based on the 2024 SD. But Miller is at home, comes off a recent finish, and rematches between veterans historically favor the fighter coming in with something to prove (legend at home for the 47th UFC fight).
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Jim "A-10" Miller vs Jared "Flash" Gordon | UFC 328: Chimaev vs Strickland | May 9, 2026 | Prudential Center, Newark, New Jersey