June 20, 2026 · Meta APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Mesquita
7-0-0
#15 Women's BantamweightSaquarema, Brazil | 35 years old
Mullins
7-2-0
UnrankedCoventry, England | 34 years old
The Black Belt Against the Brown Belt
Mesquita wants the mat. Mullins wants the feet. And she's not the submission victim she looks like.
THE DECIDING POINT
The Underdog Has a Belt Too
The gut read on this fight is simple: legendary IBJJF black belt, ADCC champion, takes you down and finishes. Both of Mesquita's UFC wins were rear-naked chokes, one in round 1 and one in round 2. The problem is that Mullins is not the jiu-jitsu novice that script needs. She's a two-time IBJJF No-Gi World champion at brown belt, an ADCC competitor, she defends 86% of takedowns in her career, and she has never been submitted in MMA. Anyone expecting an easy choke is reading Mesquita's resume and ignoring Mullins'. Here's the detail that flips everything: both of Mullins' losses came on the feet, never on the ground. She loses when she gets outstruck, not when she's on her back. And Mesquita, of the two, is the one with the rawer stand-up. So the fight becomes a tug-of-war: Bia has to turn this into a grappling match before Mullins turns it into a striking match. Whoever dictates the terrain wins.
The gut read on this fight is simple: legendary IBJJF black belt, ADCC champion, takes you down and finishes. Both of Mesquita's UFC wins were rear-naked chokes, one in round 1 and one in round 2. The problem is that Mullins is not the jiu-jitsu novice that script needs. She's a two-time IBJJF No-Gi World champion at brown belt, an ADCC competitor, she defends 86% of takedowns in her career, and she has never been submitted in MMA. Anyone expecting an easy choke is reading Mesquita's resume and ignoring Mullins'. Here's the detail that flips everything: both of Mullins' losses came on the feet, never on the ground. She loses when she gets outstruck, not when she's on her back. And Mesquita, of the two, is the one with the rawer stand-up. So the fight becomes a tug-of-war: Bia has to turn this into a grappling match before Mullins turns it into a striking match. Whoever dictates the terrain wins.
Truth A
Mesquita operates at a grappling level few in women's bantamweight can reach. Gracie Humaita black belt, IBJJF World champion, ADCC 2017 gold, and she's already translated it to MMA with two rear-naked chokes in two UFC fights. On the mat, in transition, on the back, she's on another level.
Truth B
Mullins has never been submitted, defends 86% of takedowns, and is an elite no-gi grappler herself. Both of her losses came standing. If she keeps this at range, the reach and the knockout power are on her side, and Bia has never had to grind through 15 minutes against anyone.
Tale of the Tape
Mullins is three inches taller.
Slight reach edge for Mullins.
Current Form
Bia Mesquita
Weathered early pressure, took the back, finished at 2:07.
Sub R1 (RNC)UFC debut in Rio, banked a $50K Performance of the Night bonus.
Sub R2 (RNC)Vacant LFA title. Proof her striking works when she needs it.
TKO R2 (punches)Win by disqualification after an illegal kick from her opponent.
DQ R2Another rear-naked choke in the LFA against a tough regional veteran.
Sub R2 (RNC)A perfect 7-0 run with 6 finishes. Her two UFC outings produced two rear-naked chokes and a bonus check on debut. Focused mindset and a settled camp at American Top Team. The one open question is that she's never needed more than two rounds, so her gas tank for a full 15 minutes is unknown.
Melissa Mullins
Rematch: outworked at range over three rounds in Baku.
Unanimous DecisionStopped the debutant early in round 2 with ground strikes.
TKO R2 (1:20)Knee to the body and head kicks: the only time she's been stopped standing.
TKO R2UFC debut. A common opponent with Mesquita.
Unanimous DecisionFirst meeting: stopped the Russian on strikes late in round 1.
TKO R1 (4:59)Coming off a decision loss and nearly a year on the shelf. Her planned March London camp collapsed when Luana Carolina missed weight, and Mullins herself said the cut was harder this time. She stayed active grappling, competing at ADCC, but the MMA ring rust is real. She's 2-2 in the UFC, alternating wins and losses.
Level of Competition
Both have faced Irina Alekseeva. Mesquita submitted her with a round-2 rear-naked choke on her UFC debut; Mullins beat her by unanimous decision in 2023. Same opponent, different reads: Bia solved it on the mat, Melissa on the cards. Beyond that, Mullins owns the longer UFC experience (2-2, with UFC names like Cornolle and Zhelezniakova), while Bia arrives 2-0 but against octagon newcomers.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes per Minute
Bia's number comes from very little cage time, almost all of it top-position ground strikes.
Striking Accuracy (%)
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Mullins absorbs far more than she lands, a sign she exposes herself in exchanges.
Striking Defense (%)
Takedowns per 15 Min
Takedown Accuracy (%)
Takedown Defense (%)
Mesquita has never had to defend a takedown in the UFC (0% is missing data, not a weakness). Mullins defends 86%.
Submissions per 15 Min
Mesquita leads in 7 categories · Mullins leads in 1
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
An inverted mirror. Bia finishes: 5 of her 7 wins by submission, all the recent ones by rear-naked choke, plus one TKO. The '1' in her decision column is actually a win by disqualification, she has never once gone to the judges' scorecards. Mullins does the opposite: 4 TKOs and 3 decisions, and zero submissions. Put simply, each woman's weapon is exactly the terrain where the other is weakest. On the ground, Bia's number counts; on the feet and going long, Mullins' does.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Mesquita is undefeated (7-0), so there's no loss to dissect. With Mullins, the read is clear and small: two losses, both standing. One by TKO (Cornolle's knee to the body and head kicks) and one by decision, when she got outworked at range. A two-loss sample is too short to call a 'pattern,' but the message matters for this fight: Mullins has never been submitted and has never lost on the ground. She falls when she gets outstruck, and standing is exactly where Mesquita is the more limited of the two. That's why the easy submission the market loves isn't so easy.
Skills Profile
Mesquita
vs
Mullins
Striking at Range
+2 Mullins
Mullins has more reach, more power and lives the fight on the feet; Bia is still building her stand-up.
Striking in the Pocket
Even
Both get hit up close: Mullins absorbs a lot, Bia has little measured volume in the cage.
Knockout Power
+2 Mullins
Four of Mullins' seven wins are by TKO; Bia has just one.
Striking Defense
+1 Mesquita
Bia's numbers are better, but off a tiny sample; Mullins demonstrably takes damage.
Grappling and Clinch
+3 Mesquita
IBJJF black belt and ADCC champ against a no-gi brown belt: Bia leads, but it's no walkover.
Cardio (3 rounds)
Even
Bia has never been past round 2 in MMA; Mullins has gone to decision several times. Unknown on both sides.
This fight boils down to one question: does it go to the ground or stay on the feet? On the mat Bia has a clear grappling edge, but she's facing a real grappler, not a submission victim. On the feet Mullins has reach, power and more mileage. Whoever imposes their own terrain takes the fight.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
The thesis: Bia Mesquita wins because her ground game sits at an IBJJF-black-belt, ADCC-champion level Mullins is unlikely to neutralize for 15 minutes, because Mullins absorbs more than she lands on the feet and has already been stopped standing, and because she arrives off nearly a year out after her scrapped London camp.
The thesis: Bia Mesquita wins because her ground game sits at an IBJJF-black-belt, ADCC-champion level Mullins is unlikely to neutralize for 15 minutes, because Mullins absorbs more than she lands on the feet and has already been stopped standing, and because she arrives off nearly a year out after her scrapped London camp.
The path is Bia weathering the early distance, shooting the takedown, taking the back, and either finishing late or controlling to a clear decision. It collapses if Mullins defends the takedowns with her 86% TDD and turns this into a three-round striking match where reach and power rule.
Conviction
MEDIUM conviction, and for a structural reason, not a lack of faith in the winner. The instinct is to call Mesquita by submission, but the submission gate blocks it: Mullins has never been submitted in MMA, defends 86% of takedowns and is herself a two-time no-gi World champion, while Bia has never had to grind through three rounds to know her gas tank holds. Mesquita's win is well supported by style, stats and momentum, but the manner of the win stays open, and that's what holds conviction at 5.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
Mullins defends the early takedowns and the fight goes to range: her reach and power change everything.
- 02
Bia burns energy chasing the takedown and can't sustain the pace in round 3, terrain she's never tested in MMA.
- 03
Mullins lands clean on a sloppy takedown entry: she has 4 TKOs and Bia has the rawer stand-up.
Underdog Path
Mullins meets the entries with her takedown defense, sprawls and returns to range. She keeps it standing, works her jab at distance and punishes Bia when she tries to close. If Mesquita keeps shooting and can't land it, she burns energy and opens up to get hit. In round 3, with Bia in unknown cardio territory, Mullins either gets a late TKO or banks the decision on her distance work.
Required Conditions
- Defend Bia's early takedowns and return to range (the 86% TDD has to show up early).
- Keep the fight standing and use reach and the jab instead of accepting the clinch.
- Punish sloppy takedown entries with power without getting taken to the back.
- Survive the first two rounds without being controlled and force the fight into round 3.
Verdict
Winner
Bia Mesquita
Method
Decision
Most Likely
- 01
Winner
Bia Mesquita
Mesquita wins because her grappling is superior and Mullins comes in rusty and loses on the feet. The market has the right winner, but the price is too steep to be a betting value. It falls apart if Mullins defends the takedowns and keeps the striking match going for three rounds.
- 02
Goes the distance (either fighter)
Fight goes to decision
Mullins has never been submitted and defends 86% of takedowns, and Bia has never been past round 2 to prove she can sustain a 15-minute pace. This is the matchup most likely to reach the judges. The market underrates it because it only sees Bia's BJJ resume. It falls apart if Mesquita takes the back early.
Most Likely Outcome
Caution on the method: Mesquita to win, but no submission call
The soundest side is Mesquita winning, but the price offers no value and the manner of the win is uncertain. The honest read is that this fight has a real chance to go long against a grappler who's never been submitted. If you're betting, the value angle is the fight getting past the early rounds, not a specific finish.
Stats That Matter
0
times Mullins has been submitted
Two-time no-gi World champ, never tapped
86%
Mullins' takedown defense
Bia's grappling meets real resistance
R2
Mesquita's longest MMA round
Her gas tank for three rounds is unknown
The Trap
Trap: Mesquita by submission at a fat price
The bet that's going to be in everyone's mouth is 'Mesquita by submission,' maybe even 'by RNC in round 1,' pulled in by the IBJJF black-belt resume. It's exactly the kind of pick that looks obvious and isn't. Mullins has never been submitted in MMA, defends 86% of takedowns, and is a two-time no-gi World champion at brown belt. Predicting a choke against someone who's never tapped, with Bia yet to get past round 2 to prove her gas tank, is paying a steep price for a scenario that's far from guaranteed.
The bet that's going to be in everyone's mouth is 'Mesquita by submission,' maybe even 'by RNC in round 1,' pulled in by the IBJJF black-belt resume. It's exactly the kind of pick that looks obvious and isn't. Mullins has never been submitted in MMA, defends 86% of takedowns, and is a two-time no-gi World champion at brown belt. Predicting a choke against someone who's never tapped, with Bia yet to get past round 2 to prove her gas tank, is paying a steep price for a scenario that's far from guaranteed.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Bia "The Lady GOAT" Mesquita vs Melissa "No Mess" Mullins | UFC Fight Night: Kape vs Horiguchi | June 20, 2026 | Meta APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
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