UFC 328: Chimaev vs Strickland · May 9, 2026 · Middleweight (185 lbs) · 3R

Kopylov vs Tulio

Two Strikers on the Bounce-Back

Kopylov rolls in off 2 straight UD losses. Tulio rolls in off a R2 KO from Duncan. Russian has never been KO'd in 19 fights. Brazilian has 10 KOs in 14 wins but a freshly-exposed chin.

Roman Kopylov

Roman Kopylov

14-5-0 · N/R Middleweight

Marco "Matuto" Tulio

Marco "Matuto" Tulio

14-2-0 · N/R Middleweight

In 30 seconds

Roman Kopylov wins by Decision or late KO

Kopylov 52%Draw 3%Tulio 45%
5/10
Conviction
  • 0Times Kopylov has been KO'd in 19 pro fightsGranite chin. All 5 losses came via sub (2) or decision (3).
  • R2Round Tulio took a recent KO from DuncanNovember 2025, first UFC loss, snapped a 10-fight win streak.
  • 2Kopylov's straight losses entering this fightRodrigues UD Nov/2025 + Costa UD Jul/2025. Real declining trend.
Read the full thesis ↓

The key to the fight

THE DECIDING POINT

Granite Chin vs Freshly-Exposed Chin

Kopylov rolls in off two straight unanimous decision losses: Gregory Rodrigues at UFC 322 (November 2025, scorecards 30-27 / 30-27 / 29-28) and Paulo Costa at UFC 318 (July 2025, scorecards 30-27 / 30-27 / 29-28 with a knockdown absorbed early). Before that came the head kick TKO over Chris Curtis in January 2025.

At 33, with a record of 14-5 and 12 KO/TKO finishes (86%), the Russian has NEVER been knocked out in 19 professional fights.

Tulio is the 31-year-old Brazilian who came off the 2024 Contender Series with a 10-fight win streak and 71% KO/TKO finish rate, but ate a R2 KO from Christian Leroy Duncan in November 2025 — first UFC career loss, snapping the streak.

Stylistically, this is a technical Russian striker (50% accuracy, 89% TDD per UFC.com) against a more explosive Brazilian striker (59% accuracy, 6.69 SLpM volume edge). The deciding point: Russian granite chin vs Brazilian freshly-exposed chin.

Tulio 71% KO/TKO finish rate, 6.69 SLpM volume edge, 59% striking accuracy, age 31. Before the KO loss, came off a 10-fight win streak with 4 UFC finishes. Youth and real KO power.

Kopylov NEVER been KO'd in 19 pro fights (granite chin). 89% UFC.com TDD. Even off 2 UD losses, went 25 minutes with Rodrigues and Costa absorbing damage without falling. Tulio just ate a R2 KO from Duncan, recent chin question.

Tale of the Tape

KopylovTale of the TapeTulio
33 yearsAgeTulio 2 years younger.31 years
6'2"HeightKopylov 1 inch taller.6'1"
76"ReachKopylov +2 inches.74"
N/DStanceStance not confirmed in official sources.N/D
N/DCampRussian vs Brazilian.Chute Boxe

Current form

Opponent caliber in recent fights

Roman KopylovMarco Tulio
Filled dot = win, hollow dot = loss. Higher means a better opponent.
FighterDateOpponentResultMethodOpponent caliber
Roman KopylovFeb 2024Anthony HernandezLSub R2 (RNC 3:23)3
Roman KopylovJun 2024Cesar AlmeidaWSplit Decision2
Roman KopylovJan 2025Chris CurtisWTKO R3 (head kick, 4:59)2
Roman KopylovJul 2025Paulo CostaLUD (30-27 x2, 29-28)4
Roman KopylovNov 2025Gregory RodriguesLUD (30-27 x2, 29-28)2
Marco TulioAug 2023Yousri BelgarouiWUD1
Marco TulioAug 2024Matthieu Letho DuclosWTKO R21
Marco TulioJan 2025Ihor PotieriaWKO R1 (3:04)1
Marco TulioApr 2025Tresean GoreWTKO R2 (3:16)1
Marco TulioNov 2025Christian Leroy DuncanLKO R2 (3:20)2

Roman Kopylov · Rebuilding

Coming off two straight unanimous decision losses to ranked strikers: Rodrigues at UFC 322 (November 2025) and Costa at UFC 318 (July 2025), both 30-27 / 30-27 / 29-28. Before that, a head kick TKO over Chris Curtis in January 2025. 33-year-old Russian, never been KO'd in 19 pro fights. UFC.com shows 50% accuracy, 89% TDD, 4.59 SLpM, 5.18 SApM.

Marco Tulio · Mixed Momentum

Coming off a R2 KO loss to Christian Leroy Duncan in November 2025 — first UFC career loss, snapping a 10-fight win streak. Before that, a TKO over Tresean Gore in April 2025 and a KO over Ihor Potieria in January 2025. 31-year-old Brazilian out of Chute Boxe. UFC.com shows 59% accuracy, 6.69 SLpM (high volume), 27% TD Acc.

Level of competition

12345
Average opponent level (1 to 5)

Kopylov

Average opponent level (1 to 5)3

Record2W-3L (last 5)

Against the top 50W-1L

Tulio

Average opponent level (1 to 5)1

Record4W-1L (last 5 incl DWCS)

Against the top 50W-0L

No common opponents. Kopylov has faced higher-level opposition recently (Rodrigues, Costa, Hernandez all UFC veterans). Tulio only 3 UFC fights, all against unranked opposition. Kopylov calibre 3, Tulio 1, real gap of 2 points.

Stats

StatsKopylovTulio

Sig. Strikes per MinuteTulio volume edge, pressure-striker profile.

4.59
6.69

Striking Accuracy (%)Tulio more accurate.

50%
59%

Strikes Absorbed/Min (lower is better)Even. Kopylov absorbs more by accepting trades.

5.18
4.50

Striking Defense (%)Even.

50%
50%

Takedowns per 15 MinBoth strikers.

0.50
0.30

Takedown Defense (%)Kopylov 89% TDD elite per UFC.com.

89%
60%

How they win and lose

Kopylov

Wins
14 wins
  • KO/TKO 86% (12)
  • Submission 0% (0)
  • Decision 14% (2)
Losses
5 losses
  • KO/TKO 0% (0)
  • Submission 40% (2)
  • Decision 60% (3)

Tulio

Wins
14 wins
  • KO/TKO 72% (10)
  • Submission 7% (1)
  • Decision 21% (3)
Losses
2 losses
  • KO/TKO 100% (2)
  • Submission 0% (0)
  • Decision 0% (0)

Kopylov 86% career KO/TKO (12 of 14), zero subs (technical striker who finishes profile). Tulio 71% KO/TKO (10 of 14), 1 sub (more aggressive striker). Both natural finishers.

Kopylov has NEVER been knocked out (0 KOs in 5 losses). Real vulnerability is grappling/wrestling: 2 subs (Roberson R3 sub, Hernandez RNC UFC 298) and 3 decisions (Duraev UD, Costa UD, Rodrigues UD) — all against wrestlers or grapplers who pulled the fight off the feet.

Tulio has lost twice, both by KO: Alexandre Silva TKO R2 at SFT 5 (2018, 3:52), and Christian Leroy Duncan KO R2 (2025). Symmetric pattern: Tulio folds to technical strikers, Kopylov folds to grapplers. Since both are strikers, the fight stays standing where Tulio is the vulnerable one.

Skills

Where each fighter has the edge

KopylovTulioEven
Each spoke is a skill. The farther from the center, the bigger the edge for that color.

  • 1. Volume / PressureEdge: Tulio (3/5)

    Tulio 6.69 SLpM vs Kopylov 4.59. More aggressive Brazilian.

  • 2. Striking AccuracyEdge: Tulio (2/5)

    Tulio 59% vs Kopylov 50%.

  • 3. Chin / DurabilityEdge: Kopylov (3/5)

    Kopylov NEVER KO'd in 19 fights. Tulio just ate a R2 KO from Duncan.

  • 4. Range / ReachEdge: Kopylov (2/5)

    Kopylov 2 inches more reach.

  • 5. UFC ExperienceEdge: Kopylov (3/5)

    Kopylov 9 UFC fights (5-4). Tulio only 3 (2-1).

  • 6. Cardio (3 rounds)Edge: Kopylov (2/5)

    Kopylov went 25 minutes with Rodrigues and Costa absorbing damage. Tulio never went 25 minutes against elite.

Kopylov has the granite chin and UFC experience. Tulio has volume and KO power. Pivot question: does the Brazilian's recently-exposed chin hold against the Russian's technical strikes, or does Tulio's pressure expose the veteran's declining cardio?

Full prediction

The thesis

The thesis is: Roman Kopylov wins because, first, he's NEVER been knocked out in 19 pro fights (real granite chin, all 5 losses came via sub or decision). Second, he has 2 inches of reach over Tulio and 89% TDD elite per UFC.com, keeping the fight where he wants.

Third, Tulio just ate a R2 KO from Duncan in November 2025 — exposing a recent chin question — and only has 3 UFC fights against unranked opposition while Kopylov has 9 UFC fights against UFC veterans.

Path to victory: controlled distance in the first 90 seconds, counter with cross or head kick, late KO or 30-27 / 29-28 cards stacking technical volume. Falls apart if Tulio imposes 6.69 SLpM cumulative volume across 3 rounds and the Russian's cardio fades like it did against Rodrigues and Costa.

Conviction 5 (MEDIUM) because Kopylov rolls in off 2 UD losses (real declining trend), but granite chin + UFC experience + Tulio's recent chin question converge. Competitive fight at middleweight with high variance — either could lose.

What breaks the thesis

  1. Tulio imposes superior volume (6.69 vs 4.59 SLpM) for 3 rounds
  2. Kopylov shows wear from the last 2 losses
  3. Tulio's recent chin question doesn't materialize against a technical striker
  4. Tulio lands a clean cross early in R1 and replicates Duncan

The underdog's path

Tulio sets a pressure pace from R1 with 6.69 SLpM. Stacks volume and cumulative damage. Kopylov absorbs more than he sustains (declining cardio in last 2). Tulio takes 30-27 or 29-28 cards, or lands a clean shot in R3 when the Russian fades.

  • Maintain 6+ SLpM volume across 3 rounds
  • Cash in on 2 years of youth for cardio
  • Don't give up the back or accept the clinch (Kopylov isn't a wrestler)
  • Resist counter head kick / cross attempts