May 9, 2026 · Prudential Center, Newark, New Jersey
Kopylov
14-5-0
N/R MiddleweightMoscow, Russia | Age 33
Tulio
14-2-0
N/R MiddleweightBrazil | Age 31
Two Strikers on the Bounce-Back
Kopylov rolls in off 2 straight UD losses. Tulio rolls in off a R2 KO from Duncan. Russian has never been KO'd in 19 fights. Brazilian has 10 KOs in 14 wins but a freshly-exposed chin.
THE DECIDING POINT
Granite Chin vs Freshly-Exposed Chin
Kopylov rolls in off two straight unanimous decision losses: Gregory Rodrigues at UFC 322 (November 2025, scorecards 30-27 / 30-27 / 29-28) and Paulo Costa at UFC 318 (July 2025, scorecards 30-27 / 30-27 / 29-28 with a knockdown absorbed early). Before that came the head kick TKO over Chris Curtis in January 2025. At 33, with a record of 14-5 and 12 KO/TKO finishes (86%), the Russian has NEVER been knocked out in 19 professional fights. Tulio is the 31-year-old Brazilian who came off the 2024 Contender Series with a 10-fight win streak and 71% KO/TKO finish rate, but ate a R2 KO from Christian Leroy Duncan in November 2025 — first UFC career loss, snapping the streak. Stylistically, this is a technical Russian striker (50% accuracy, 89% TDD per UFC.com) against a more explosive Brazilian striker (59% accuracy, 6.69 SLpM volume edge). The deciding point: Russian granite chin vs Brazilian freshly-exposed chin.
Truth A
Tulio 71% KO/TKO finish rate, 6.69 SLpM volume edge, 59% striking accuracy, age 31. Before the KO loss, came off a 10-fight win streak with 4 UFC finishes. Youth and real KO power.
Truth B
Kopylov NEVER been KO'd in 19 pro fights (granite chin). 89% UFC.com TDD. Even off 2 UD losses, went 25 minutes with Rodrigues and Costa absorbing damage without falling. Tulio just ate a R2 KO from Duncan, recent chin question.
Tale of the Tape
Tulio 2 years younger.
Kopylov 1 inch taller.
Kopylov +2 inches.
Stance not confirmed in official sources.
Russian vs Brazilian.
Current Form
Roman Kopylov
UD at UFC 322. Rodrigues landed cleaner over 3 rounds.
UD (30-27 x2, 29-28)UD at UFC 318. Costa took him down early, dominated body kicks.
UD (30-27 x2, 29-28)Head kick TKO in R3, Performance of the Night.
TKO R3 (head kick, 4:59)SD over 3 rounds.
Split DecisionR2 sub.
Sub R2 (RNC 3:23)Coming off two straight unanimous decision losses to ranked strikers: Rodrigues at UFC 322 (November 2025) and Costa at UFC 318 (July 2025), both 30-27 / 30-27 / 29-28. Before that, a head kick TKO over Chris Curtis in January 2025. 33-year-old Russian, never been KO'd in 19 pro fights. UFC.com shows 50% accuracy, 89% TDD, 4.59 SLpM, 5.18 SApM.
Marco Tulio
First UFC loss. Snapped a 10-fight win streak.
KO R2 (3:20)TKO at UFC 314.
TKO R2 (3:16)R1 KO, UFC debut.
KO R1 (3:04)Contender Series, UFC contract.
TKO R2DWCS S7.
UDComing off a R2 KO loss to Christian Leroy Duncan in November 2025 — first UFC career loss, snapping a 10-fight win streak. Before that, a TKO over Tresean Gore in April 2025 and a KO over Ihor Potieria in January 2025. 31-year-old Brazilian out of Chute Boxe. UFC.com shows 59% accuracy, 6.69 SLpM (high volume), 27% TD Acc.
Level of Competition
No common opponents. Kopylov has faced higher-level opposition recently (Rodrigues, Costa, Hernandez all UFC veterans). Tulio only 3 UFC fights, all against unranked opposition. Kopylov calibre 3, Tulio 1, real gap of 2 points.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes per Minute
Tulio volume edge, pressure-striker profile.
Striking Accuracy (%)
Tulio more accurate.
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Even. Kopylov absorbs more by accepting trades.
Striking Defense (%)
Even.
Takedowns per 15 Min
Both strikers.
Takedown Defense (%)
Kopylov 89% TDD elite per UFC.com.
Kopylov leads in 2 categories · Tulio leads in 3
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Kopylov 86% career KO/TKO (12 of 14), zero subs (technical striker who finishes profile). Tulio 71% KO/TKO (10 of 14), 1 sub (more aggressive striker). Both natural finishers.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Kopylov has NEVER been knocked out (0 KOs in 5 losses). Real vulnerability is grappling/wrestling: 2 subs (Roberson R3 sub, Hernandez RNC UFC 298) and 3 decisions (Duraev UD, Costa UD, Rodrigues UD) — all against wrestlers or grapplers who pulled the fight off the feet. Tulio has lost twice, both by KO: Alexandre Silva TKO R2 at SFT 5 (2018, 3:52), and Christian Leroy Duncan KO R2 (2025). Symmetric pattern: Tulio folds to technical strikers, Kopylov folds to grapplers. Since both are strikers, the fight stays standing where Tulio is the vulnerable one.
Skills Profile
Kopylov
vs
Tulio
Volume / Pressure
+3 Tulio
Tulio 6.69 SLpM vs Kopylov 4.59. More aggressive Brazilian.
Striking Accuracy
+2 Tulio
Tulio 59% vs Kopylov 50%.
Chin / Durability
+3 Kopylov
Kopylov NEVER KO'd in 19 fights. Tulio just ate a R2 KO from Duncan.
Range / Reach
+2 Kopylov
Kopylov 2 inches more reach.
UFC Experience
+3 Kopylov
Kopylov 9 UFC fights (5-4). Tulio only 3 (2-1).
Cardio (3 rounds)
+2 Kopylov
Kopylov went 25 minutes with Rodrigues and Costa absorbing damage. Tulio never went 25 minutes against elite.
Kopylov has the granite chin and UFC experience. Tulio has volume and KO power. Pivot question: does the Brazilian's recently-exposed chin hold against the Russian's technical strikes, or does Tulio's pressure expose the veteran's declining cardio?
Final Prediction
The Thesis
The thesis is: Roman Kopylov wins because, first, he's NEVER been knocked out in 19 pro fights (real granite chin, all 5 losses came via sub or decision).
The thesis is: Roman Kopylov wins because, first, he's NEVER been knocked out in 19 pro fights (real granite chin, all 5 losses came via sub or decision).
Second, he has 2 inches of reach over Tulio and 89% TDD elite per UFC.com, keeping the fight where he wants.
Third, Tulio just ate a R2 KO from Duncan in November 2025 — exposing a recent chin question — and only has 3 UFC fights against unranked opposition while Kopylov has 9 UFC fights against UFC veterans. Path to victory: controlled distance in the first 90 seconds, counter with cross or head kick, late KO or 30-27 / 29-28 cards stacking technical volume. Falls apart if Tulio imposes 6.69 SLpM cumulative volume across 3 rounds and the Russian's cardio fades like it did against Rodrigues and Costa.
Conviction
Conviction 5 (MEDIUM) because Kopylov rolls in off 2 UD losses (real declining trend), but granite chin + UFC experience + Tulio's recent chin question converge. Competitive fight at middleweight with high variance — either could lose.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
Tulio imposes superior volume (6.69 vs 4.59 SLpM) for 3 rounds
- 02
Kopylov shows wear from the last 2 losses
- 03
Tulio's recent chin question doesn't materialize against a technical striker
- 04
Tulio lands a clean cross early in R1 and replicates Duncan
Underdog Path
Tulio sets a pressure pace from R1 with 6.69 SLpM. Stacks volume and cumulative damage. Kopylov absorbs more than he sustains (declining cardio in last 2). Tulio takes 30-27 or 29-28 cards, or lands a clean shot in R3 when the Russian fades.
Required Conditions
- Maintain 6+ SLpM volume across 3 rounds
- Cash in on 2 years of youth for cardio
- Don't give up the back or accept the clinch (Kopylov isn't a wrestler)
- Resist counter head kick / cross attempts
— Precedent: Rodrigues and Costa beat Kopylov via UD by stacking volume and pressure. Tulio has comparable volume (6.69 SLpM). Direct precedent for Tulio to replicate.
Verdict
Winner
Roman Kopylov
Method
Decision or late KO
Most Likely
- 01
Winner
Roman Kopylov
Real probability 52%, implied = 56.5%. Line near pickem. No big edge.
- 02
Method
Kopylov by Decision
Kopylov went 25 minutes with Rodrigues and Costa in his last 2. Tulio has only been finished once. If Kopylov controls distance, decision is a real scenario. Edge.
- 03
Method
Tulio by KO/TKO
Tulio 71% KO/TKO finish rate. But Kopylov has never been KO'd. Real probability 25-30%, marginal edge.
Most Likely Outcome
Kopylov by Decision
Highest expected edge on the fight. Kopylov went 25 minutes against Rodrigues and Costa, Tulio has never gone 25 minutes against elite. Most likely scenario among Russian wins is a UD via cumulative technical volume.
Stats That Matter
0
Times Kopylov has been KO'd in 19 pro fights
Granite chin. All 5 losses came via sub (2) or decision (3).
R2
Round Tulio took a recent KO from Duncan
November 2025, first UFC loss, snapped a 10-fight win streak.
2
Kopylov's straight losses entering this fight
Rodrigues UD Nov/2025 + Costa UD Jul/2025. Real declining trend.
6.69
Tulio's UFC.com SLpM
Volume well above Kopylov's 4.59. Pressure striker.
The Trap
The Trap: Tulio by Quick KO
The market will pay Tulio by quick KO based on his 71% KO/TKO finish rate. But Kopylov has NEVER been KO'd in 19 pro fights, and Tulio has only finished unranked strikers in his 3 UFC fights. Kopylov is a level higher (9 UFC fights against UFC veterans) and has a chin tested against Curtis, Almeida, Costa, Rodrigues. Betting on a quick KO is betting against the entire history of the Russian.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Roman Kopylov vs Marco "Matuto" Tulio | UFC 328: Chimaev vs Strickland | May 9, 2026 | Prudential Center, Newark, New Jersey