UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs Murphy • Middleweight (185 lbs) • 3 Rounds
March 21, 2026
Kondratavicius
8-1-0
Trocoli
12-6-0
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes Per Minute
Kondratavicius is far more active in striking, nearly double Trocoli's volume
Striking Accuracy (%)
Significantly superior accuracy from the Lithuanian, landing nearly 6 out of 10
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Trocoli absorbs nearly 6 strikes per minute, an extremely concerning number
Strike Defense (%)
Trocoli defends less than 40% of strikes, a massive vulnerability
Takedowns Per 15 Min
Takedown Accuracy (%)
Takedown Defense (%)
Kondratavicius defends takedowns solidly
Kondratavicius leads in 6 categories · Trocoli leads in 1
Tale of the Tape
Kondratavicius is 9 years younger
Trocoli has a 5cm height advantage
Trocoli has 6.5 inches more reach, a massive difference
Fight History
TKO in 66 seconds on DWCS against an undefeated fighter. Earned UFC contract dominantly.
TKO R1 (punches, 1:06)First-round knockout against one of Cage Warriors' best strikers.
KO R1First-round submission, showed versatility beyond striking.
Sub R1Only career loss at ARES FC. Was stopped in the first round.
TKO R1Another first-round knockout, pattern of quick finishes.
KO R1Submitted in just over 1 minute at UFC 323. Third consecutive loss.
Sub R1 (guillotine, 1:09)Submitted again by guillotine in the first round. Concerning pattern.
Sub R1 (guillotine, 1:23)Lasted 3 rounds against Shara Bullet in Riyadh, accepted on short notice. Elite-level opponent.
TKO R3Last career win, quick submission. Since then, 3 consecutive UFC losses.
Sub R1 (RNC, 2:10)Won by submission on DWCS and earned contract, but result was overturned for failing drug test. Contract rescinded.
NC (failed drug test)Skills Profile
Stand-up Striking
KondrataviciusKondratavicius has superior accuracy (58%) and higher volume. Trocoli relies more on ground submissions than striking.
Knockout Power
KondrataviciusKondratavicius has superior knockout power with 75% wins by KO. Trocoli has just 25% KOs and relies more on submissions.
Wrestling & Grappling
EvenNeither is an elite grappler. Trocoli was submitted twice by guillotine, a clear vulnerability.
Overall Defense
KondrataviciusTrocoli defends only 38% of strikes and was submitted 3 times in a row. Very concerning defense.
Cardio & Pace
EvenBoth prefer to finish in the first round. If the fight goes long, neither has a clear advantage.
Octagon Experience
TrocoliTrocoli has 3 UFC fights (0W-3L) and faced Shara Magomedov. Kondratavicius makes his octagon debut.
Kondratavicius is a natural finisher who has never needed the judges, winning 100% of his fights by knockout or submission. Trocoli has UFC experience but comes off 3 consecutive losses (all by submission in R1) with his defense in total collapse. The Lithuanian enters as the clear favorite despite being a debutant.
Win Distribution
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Kondratavicius has never gone to a decision. All 8 wins were by knockout (75%) or submission (25%), all in the first round. Trocoli is more of a ground finisher with 42% wins by submission and just 25% by KO, but has been systematically submitted in his last 3 bouts. This fight will likely be decided in the opening minutes.
Final Prediction
Vencedor Previsto
Kondratavicius
KO/TKO R1|Confidence MEDIUM-HIGH
Mantas Kondratavicius is a genuine prospect with a 100% finish rate and explosive power that earned him a DWCS contract in 66 seconds. Trocoli comes off 3 consecutive losses, all by submission in the first round, with just 38% strike defense. The Brazilian has experience and power, but is in freefall momentum. The Lithuanian should impose his pace from the opening bell and exploit Trocoli's defensive gaps to find a quick knockout.
X-Factor
Kondratavicius's finish rate
100% career finishes. Kondratavicius has never needed judges and ends fights with brutality. If Trocoli doesn't show maximum respect for the Lithuanian's power, he's hitting the canvas fast.
Upset Alert
Trocoli's reach could make the difference
With 6.5 inches more reach and 5cm of height, Trocoli can maintain distance and use the jab. Despite coming off 3 losses, he lasted 3 rounds against Shara Magomedov and has octagon experience. If Kondratavicius enters without respecting the reach, he could be surprised.
UFC NEWS HUB - Preliminary Analysis
Kondratavicius vs Trocoli | UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs Murphy | Middleweight (185 lbs)