UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs Murphy • Lightweight (155 lbs) • 3 Rounds
March 21, 2026
Jones
17-2-0
Sola
11-0-1
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes Per Minute
Both with extremely high strike volume, fight likely to be a war on the feet
Striking Accuracy (%)
Identical accuracy, both land nearly half their shots
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Jones absorbs more strikes, was nearly finished by Oki in R1
Strike Defense (%)
Below-average strike defense for both, wide-open fight
Takedowns Per 15 Min
Jones uses wrestling as his primary weapon when striking gets complicated
Takedown Accuracy (%)
Takedown Defense (%)
Jones has elite takedown defense, very hard to take down
Jones leads in 4 categories · Sola leads in 2
Tale of the Tape
Sola has a 10cm height advantage
Identical reach despite the height difference
Orthodox vs southpaw dynamic
Fight History
Nearly got finished in R1, but came back devastating with takedowns and elbows in R2. Performance of the Night.
TKO R2 (elbows)Dominated with wrestling in the final rounds against the division veteran on his UFC return.
Unanimous DecisionWin at Cage Warriors before returning to the UFC, total control for 3 rounds.
Unanimous DecisionDominated for 3 rounds in London, a result that led Jones to leave the UFC temporarily.
Unanimous DecisionFirst UFC win against a prospect who later became a standout in the division.
Unanimous DecisionImpressive UFC debut. Folded McKee with a devastating body shot in the third round.
TKO R3 (body shot)ARES FC 31 title defense in Marseille, dominated with wrestling and pressure for 5 rounds.
Unanimous DecisionTitle defense at ARES FC 28, stopped Caio with elbows from the crucifix position in the second round.
TKO R2 (elbows from crucifix)ARES FC 25, stopped Gagloev with ground and pound in the second round.
TKO R2 (ground and pound)ARES FC 22, extremely competitive title fight that ended in a draw after 5 rounds.
Majority DrawSkills Profile
Stand-up Striking
EvenBoth are excellent strikers with high volume. Jones has more UFC experience, Sola brings body shot power.
Knockout Power
SolaSola has 55% wins by KO/TKO, including a body shot KO in the UFC. Jones finishes more on the ground.
Offensive Wrestling
JonesJones dominated Stephens and Oki with takedowns and control. His primary weapon when the striking gets tough.
Defense & Grappling
JonesJones has 80% takedown defense and is dangerous on the ground with elbows. Sola hasn't been tested in this area in the UFC.
Cardio & Pace
SolaSola maintains constant pressure and has experience in 5-round fights as ARES champion. Jones sometimes slows down.
Octagon Experience
JonesJones has 6 UFC fights (4W-2L) including a triumphant return. Sola has just 1 octagon fight.
Jones is the more complete fighter with superior wrestling and UFC experience, while Sola compensates with finishing power and relentless pace. The key to this fight is whether Jones can take it to the ground or if Sola can maintain distance with his jab and body attacks.
Win Distribution
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Jones has a more versatile profile with wins split between KO (47%), decision (35%), and submission (18%), showing he can win in multiple ways. Sola relies more on power, with 55% knockouts and just 1 submission. If the fight goes to the ground, Jones has a clear advantage in options.
Final Prediction
Vencedor Previsto
Jones
Unanimous Decision|Confidence MEDIUM
Mason Jones has the wrestling and octagon experience advantage, two factors that tend to be decisive against rising newcomers. Sola is a dangerous prospect with real power in his hands and body, but he hasn't been tested against a grappler of Jones's caliber. The Welshman should mix wrestling with striking in rounds 2 and 3 to accumulate points on the scorecards. However, Sola's power and the southpaw dynamic make this fight much more competitive than the odds suggest.
X-Factor
Jones's wrestling against a striker
Jones proved against Stephens and Oki that he can dominate entire rounds on the ground. If he can impose that game against Sola, who has never faced a wrestler of this caliber, the fight could be one-sided.
Upset Alert
Sola has the power to end it at any moment
The Frenchman folded Rhys McKee with a body shot and has 6 career knockouts. If Jones gets reckless in the exchanges like he did in R1 against Oki, Sola can capitalize with a single well-placed shot.
UFC NEWS HUB - Preliminary Analysis
Jones vs Sola | UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs Murphy | Lightweight (155 lbs)