UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs Murphy • Women's Strawweight (115 lbs) • 3 Rounds
March 21, 2026
Dyer
6-1-0
Oliveira
7-3-1
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes Per Minute
Both with high volume for the women's division, fight is likely to be action-packed
Striking Accuracy (%)
Dyer lands with more precision, a reflection of her Muay Thai background
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Oliveira absorbs more strikes, was submitted in the third round against Luciano
Strike Defense (%)
Dyer has superior defense, although both still have room to improve
Takedowns Per 15 Min
Takedown Accuracy (%)
Takedown Defense (%)
Dyer defends takedowns more consistently
Dyer leads in 4 categories · Oliveira leads in 3
Tale of the Tape
Dyer is 5 years younger
Fight History
Lost on DWCS but earned a contract anyway. Was dropped twice in R1 but recovered with incredible courage.
Unanimous DecisionSplit decision win at PFL Europe 3 Playoffs, showing competitiveness in a tight fight.
Split DecisionHead kick knockout at PFL Europe, showing high-level Muay Thai technique.
KO R1 (head kick, 3:53)Third-round TKO at Ares 18, showing the ability to maintain pressure.
TKO R3 (1:08)Points win at PFL Europe Playoffs, showing the ability to fight 3 full rounds.
Unanimous DecisionSubmitted in the third round, fatigue seemed to be a factor. Still winless in the UFC.
Sub R3 (RNC, 2:50)UFC debut by unanimous decision. Couldn't impose her striking against the veteran.
Unanimous DecisionFirst-round knockout at LKC 5, before signing with the UFC.
KO/TKO R1Quick knockout at MC Fight, showing impressive power for the division.
KO/TKO R1First-round submission at Demo Fight 11, only career submission win.
Submission R1Skills Profile
Stand-up Striking
DyerDyer has trained Muay Thai since age 9 and has more refined technique. Oliveira has raw power but less technique.
Knockout Power
OliveiraOliveira has 86% wins by KO/TKO, rare power in the women's division. Dyer also has 67% KOs, both are dangerous.
Wrestling & Grappling
EvenNeither is strong in grappling. Both prefer to settle it on the feet, fight is likely to stay in the striking.
Overall Defense
DyerDyer showed incredible resilience recovering from 2 knockdowns against Foro. Oliveira was submitted in R3 by Luciano.
Cardio & Pace
DyerDyer fought 3 rounds against Foro and improved in the later rounds. Oliveira was submitted in R3, possible cardio issue.
UFC Experience
OliveiraOliveira has 2 UFC fights (0W-2L). Dyer makes her official octagon debut. Neither has a significant advantage.
Two strikers with above-average knockout power for the women's division. Dyer has superior technique with a Muay Thai background and better cardio, while Oliveira brings explosive raw power in the early rounds. Dyer needs to survive the opening and impose her pace. If the fight passes R2, the advantage shifts completely to the Brit.
Win Distribution
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Two knockout artists in the UFC's lightest women's division. Oliveira has the most impressive rate at 86% wins by KO/TKO, a rare number among women. Dyer has 67% knockouts. Neither wins by decision often (Oliveira has never won on points). This fight has a high probability of a stoppage by strikes.
Final Prediction
Vencedor Previsto
Dyer
Unanimous Decision|Confidence MEDIUM
Shanelle Dyer has the advantage of fighting at home in the O2 Arena and demonstrated incredible resilience recovering from two knockdowns against Carol Foro on DWCS. Her Muay Thai is technically superior to Oliveira's striking and her cardio is visibly better. Oliveira has explosive power but comes off 2 consecutive UFC losses and showed vulnerability in cardio when submitted in the third round. If Dyer survives the first round and imposes her pace in rounds 2 and 3, she should accumulate enough points for the win. However, Oliveira's power at the start makes any prediction uncertain.
X-Factor
Dyer's resilience
Getting dropped twice in the first round of DWCS and coming back to fight all 3 full rounds shows a warrior's mentality. At home, with the crowd pushing, that resilience could be the deciding factor if Oliveira connects early.
Upset Alert
Oliveira has the power to surprise anyone
With 86% wins by knockout, Oliveira is one of the biggest knockout artists in the division. If she connects clean in the opening minutes like she did in her 6 KO wins on the regional circuit, she could end the fight before Dyer has time to adapt.
UFC NEWS HUB - Preliminary Analysis
Dyer vs Oliveira | UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs Murphy | Women's Strawweight (115 lbs)