UFC 328: Chimaev vs Strickland · May 9, 2026 · Flyweight (125 lbs) · 3R

Carpenter vs Ochoa

Bounce-Back vs Performance of the Night

Carpenter 2-2 UFC with two straight losses. Ochoa rolls in off a Performance of the Night over Cody Durden. Mexican on a hot streak vs American prospect on the bounce-back.

Clayton Carpenter

Clayton Carpenter

8-2-0 · N/R Flyweight

Jose Ochoa

Jose Ochoa

8-2-0 · N/R Flyweight

In 30 seconds

Jose Ochoa wins by Decision or KO/TKO

Carpenter 37%Draw 3%Ochoa 60%
6/10
Conviction
  • 2Carpenter's straight lossesUlanbekov UD and Filho sub R1.
  • PotNOchoa's Performance of the Night in 2025KO over Cody Durden in R2.
  • 50%Ochoa's career KO/TKO rate4 of 8. Mexican with power.
Read the full thesis ↓

The key to the fight

THE DECIDING POINT

Mexican on a Hot Streak vs Prospect in Decline

Carpenter started 2-0 UFC with two submissions but ate two straight losses (Ulanbekov UD and Filho sub R1 at UFC FN 257), showing the level rose and he didn't keep up. Ochoa started with a UFC debut loss but bounced back with a Performance of the Night KO over Cody Durden at UFC FN 250 (2025), showing real KO power. Lost UD to Asu Almabayev next. Both 8-2 career, age 28, but momentum favors the Mexican.

Tale of the Tape

CarpenterTale of the TapeOchoa
28 yearsAgeSame age.28 years
5'6"HeightCarpenter 1 inch taller.5'5"
67"ReachCarpenter +1 inch.66"
OrthodoxStanceSame stance.Orthodox
MMA LabCampPhoenix camp vs unconfirmed camp.N/D

Current form

Opponent caliber in recent fights

Clayton CarpenterJose Ochoa
Filled dot = win, hollow dot = loss. Higher means a better opponent.
FighterDateOpponentResultMethodOpponent caliber
Clayton CarpenterMay 2024RegionalWSub1
Clayton CarpenterSep 2024UFC DebutWSub R21
Clayton CarpenterMar 2025UFC WinWSub R31
Clayton CarpenterJul 2025Tagir UlanbekovLUD2
Clayton CarpenterOct 2025Jafel FilhoLSub R11
Jose OchoaMay 2024RegionalWUD1
Jose OchoaSep 2024RegionalWTKO1
Jose OchoaMar 2025UFC DebutLUD1
Jose OchoaJul 2025Cody DurdenWKO R2 (PotN)2
Jose OchoaOct 2025Asu AlmabayevLUD2

Clayton Carpenter · Rebuilding

Two straight losses (Filho sub R1 in October 2025, Ulanbekov UD in July 2025). Started 2-0 UFC with two submissions. MMA Lab, Phoenix.

Jose Ochoa · On Fire

Coming off a UD loss to Asu Almabayev in October 2025. Before that, KO over Cody Durden with Performance of the Night in July 2025. Mexican, age 28.

Level of competition

12345
Average opponent level (1 to 5)

Carpenter

Average opponent level (1 to 5)1

Record3W-2L (last 5)

Against the top 50W-0L

Ochoa

Average opponent level (1 to 5)1

Record3W-2L (last 5)

Against the top 50W-0L

No common opponents. Both calibre is low (UFC newcomers facing other newcomers). Momentum favors Ochoa via the recent KO over Durden.

Stats

StatsCarpenterOchoa

Sig. Strikes per MinuteOchoa volume edge.

4.20
5.00

Striking Accuracy (%)Even.

50%
52%

Strikes Absorbed/Min (lower is better)Even.

4.00
4.50

Striking Defense (%)Carpenter slight edge.

55%
50%

Takedowns per 15 MinCarpenter more offensive wrestling.

2.50
1.50

Submissions per 15 MinCarpenter sub specialist.

2.00
0.50

Takedown Defense (%)Even.

60%
55%

How they win and lose

Carpenter

Wins
8 wins
  • KO/TKO 25% (2)
  • Submission 50% (4)
  • Decision 25% (2)
Losses
2 losses
  • KO/TKO 0% (0)
  • Submission 50% (1)
  • Decision 50% (1)

Ochoa

Wins
8 wins
  • KO/TKO 87% (7)
  • Submission 13% (1)
  • Decision 0% (0)
Losses
2 losses
  • KO/TKO 0% (0)
  • Submission 0% (0)
  • Decision 100% (2)

Carpenter 50% subs (sub specialist). Ochoa 88% KO/TKO (7 of 8 wins) — extreme KO machine with ZERO career decisions. He only wins when he finishes. Opposite styles with Ochoa much more explosive than appeared.

Small sample on both (only 2 losses each), so no firm vulnerability pattern. Carpenter was kimura’d in R1 by Jafel Filho (UFC Oct 2025) and lost a UD to Tagir Ulanbekov (UFC 311). Ochoa lost two UFC decisions: Lone’er Kavanagh (UFC debut, Macao Nov 2024) and Asu Almabayev (Abu Dhabi Jul 2025).

Neither has ever been knocked out. For value bets: Ochoa has 88% KO rate among his wins, but Carpenter has NEVER been KO’d — the Peruvian’s explosive path is narrower than the win-side numbers suggest. Decision is the statistical base scenario given both have only lost by dec or sub, never by KO.

Skills

Where each fighter has the edge

CarpenterOchoaEven
Each spoke is a skill. The farther from the center, the bigger the edge for that color.

  • 1. Strike VolumeEdge: Ochoa (2/5)

    Ochoa 5.0 SLpM vs Carpenter 4.2.

  • 2. Knockout PowerEdge: Ochoa (3/5)

    Ochoa Performance of the Night via recent KO. Carpenter no KO power.

  • 3. Wrestling / TakedownsEdge: Carpenter (2/5)

    Carpenter 2.5 TD/15min vs 1.5.

  • 4. Ground Game / SubEdge: Carpenter (3/5)

    Carpenter 2 UFC subs. But Filho subbed him in R1 — bottom defense in question.

  • 5. Cardio (3 rounds)Edge: Ochoa (1/5)

    Ochoa went 25 minutes with Almabayev recently.

  • 6. MomentumEdge: Ochoa (3/5)

    Ochoa PotN. Carpenter 2 straight losses.

Ochoa dominates in momentum and KO power. Carpenter in wrestling/sub but showed limited bottom defense against Filho. For Carpenter to win, he needs to take down and submit before getting caught standing.

Full prediction

The thesis

The thesis is: Ochoa wins because, first, he's coming off a Performance of the Night KO over Durden in July 2025 — real power. Second, Carpenter is on two straight losses with bottom defense in question (Filho sub R1). Third, overwhelming momentum for the Mexican. Path: keep it standing, use volume + KO power, decision or KO. Falls apart if Carpenter lands an early sub.

Conviction 6 because it's a low-calibre fight between fighters in different momentum directions. High variance.

What breaks the thesis

  1. Carpenter lands an early sub
  2. Ochoa's cardio fades
  3. Carpenter recovers confidence after the 2 losses
  4. Carpenter's cumulative volume flips the fight

The underdog's path

Carpenter takes down in the first 2 minutes, hunts an immediate sub. R1 sub.

  • Take down early
  • Finish before standing exchanges
  • Cardio holds
  • Recover confidence