May 9, 2026 · Prudential Center, Newark, New Jersey
Carpenter
8-2-0
N/R FlyweightPhoenix, Arizona | Age 28
Ochoa
8-2-0
N/R FlyweightMexico | Age 28
Bounce-Back vs Performance of the Night
Carpenter 2-2 UFC with two straight losses. Ochoa rolls in off a Performance of the Night over Cody Durden. Mexican on a hot streak vs American prospect on the bounce-back.
THE DECIDING POINT
Mexican on a Hot Streak vs Prospect in Decline
Carpenter started 2-0 UFC with two submissions but ate two straight losses (Ulanbekov UD and Filho sub R1 at UFC FN 257), showing the level rose and he didn't keep up. Ochoa started with a UFC debut loss but bounced back with a Performance of the Night KO over Cody Durden at UFC FN 250 (2025), showing real KO power. Lost UD to Asu Almabayev next. Both 8-2 career, age 28, but momentum favors the Mexican.
Tale of the Tape
Same age.
Carpenter 1 inch taller.
Carpenter +1 inch.
Same stance.
Phoenix camp vs unconfirmed camp.
Current Form
Clayton Carpenter
R1 sub.
Sub R1UD to a Russian wrestler.
UDR3 sub.
Sub R3Debut R2 sub.
Sub R2Regional sub.
SubTwo straight losses (Filho sub R1 in October 2025, Ulanbekov UD in July 2025). Started 2-0 UFC with two submissions. MMA Lab, Phoenix.
Jose Ochoa
UD over 3 rounds.
UDR2 KO, Performance of the Night.
KO R2 (PotN)Debut UD.
UDRegional.
TKORegional UD.
UDComing off a UD loss to Asu Almabayev in October 2025. Before that, KO over Cody Durden with Performance of the Night in July 2025. Mexican, age 28.
Level of Competition
No common opponents. Both calibre is low (UFC newcomers facing other newcomers). Momentum favors Ochoa via the recent KO over Durden.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes per Minute
Ochoa volume edge.
Striking Accuracy (%)
Even.
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Even.
Striking Defense (%)
Carpenter slight edge.
Takedowns per 15 Min
Carpenter more offensive wrestling.
Submissions per 15 Min
Carpenter sub specialist.
Takedown Defense (%)
Even.
Carpenter leads in 5 categories · Ochoa leads in 2
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Carpenter 50% subs (sub specialist). Ochoa 88% KO/TKO (7 of 8 wins) — extreme KO machine with ZERO career decisions. He only wins when he finishes. Opposite styles with Ochoa much more explosive than appeared.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Small sample on both (only 2 losses each), so no firm vulnerability pattern. Carpenter was kimura’d in R1 by Jafel Filho (UFC Oct 2025) and lost a UD to Tagir Ulanbekov (UFC 311). Ochoa lost two UFC decisions: Lone’er Kavanagh (UFC debut, Macao Nov 2024) and Asu Almabayev (Abu Dhabi Jul 2025). Neither has ever been knocked out. For value bets: Ochoa has 88% KO rate among his wins, but Carpenter has NEVER been KO’d — the Peruvian’s explosive path is narrower than the win-side numbers suggest. Decision is the statistical base scenario given both have only lost by dec or sub, never by KO.
Skills Profile
Carpenter
vs
Ochoa
Strike Volume
+2 Ochoa
Ochoa 5.0 SLpM vs Carpenter 4.2.
Knockout Power
+3 Ochoa
Ochoa Performance of the Night via recent KO. Carpenter no KO power.
Wrestling / Takedowns
+2 Carpenter
Carpenter 2.5 TD/15min vs 1.5.
Ground Game / Sub
+3 Carpenter
Carpenter 2 UFC subs. But Filho subbed him in R1 — bottom defense in question.
Cardio (3 rounds)
+1 Ochoa
Ochoa went 25 minutes with Almabayev recently.
Momentum
+3 Ochoa
Ochoa PotN. Carpenter 2 straight losses.
Ochoa dominates in momentum and KO power. Carpenter in wrestling/sub but showed limited bottom defense against Filho. For Carpenter to win, he needs to take down and submit before getting caught standing.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
The thesis is: Ochoa wins because, first, he's coming off a Performance of the Night KO over Durden in July 2025 — real power.
The thesis is: Ochoa wins because, first, he's coming off a Performance of the Night KO over Durden in July 2025 — real power.
Second, Carpenter is on two straight losses with bottom defense in question (Filho sub R1).
Third, overwhelming momentum for the Mexican. Path: keep it standing, use volume + KO power, decision or KO. Falls apart if Carpenter lands an early sub.
Conviction
Conviction 6 because it's a low-calibre fight between fighters in different momentum directions. High variance.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
Carpenter lands an early sub
- 02
Ochoa's cardio fades
- 03
Carpenter recovers confidence after the 2 losses
- 04
Carpenter's cumulative volume flips the fight
Underdog Path
Carpenter takes down in the first 2 minutes, hunts an immediate sub. R1 sub.
Required Conditions
- Take down early
- Finish before standing exchanges
- Cardio holds
- Recover confidence
— Precedent: Carpenter has 5 subs in 8 wins. But Ochoa has not been submitted in his UFC career.
Verdict
Winner
Jose Ochoa
Method
Decision or KO/TKO
Most Likely
- 01
Winner
Jose Ochoa
Real probability 60%, implied = 65%. No big edge.
- 02
Method
Ochoa by KO/TKO
Ochoa 50% KO + Carpenter chin question. Real probability 30-35%, edge.
Most Likely Outcome
Ochoa by KO/TKO
Mexican with a recent KO and Carpenter exposed.
Stats That Matter
2
Carpenter's straight losses
Ulanbekov UD and Filho sub R1.
PotN
Ochoa's Performance of the Night in 2025
KO over Cody Durden in R2.
50%
Ochoa's career KO/TKO rate
4 of 8. Mexican with power.
63%
Carpenter's career sub rate
Sub specialist but weak bottom defense.
The Trap
The Trap: Carpenter by Specific Submission
The market may pay Carpenter by sub based on his 5 UFC subs. But Ochoa hasn't been finished in the UFC and Carpenter just got subbed in R1 by Filho. The American's questioned bottom defense supports that a specific sub is a tough scenario.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Clayton Carpenter vs Jose Ochoa | UFC 328: Chimaev vs Strickland | May 9, 2026 | Prudential Center, Newark, New Jersey