May 9, 2026 · Prudential Center, Newark, New Jersey
Dawson
23-3-1
N/R LightweightLee's Summit, Missouri | Age 31
Rebecki
20-4-0
N/R LightweightŁódź, Poland | Age 33
Wrestler vs Polish Striker
Dawson is fresh off a R1 KO loss. Rebecki rolls in off two competitive UD losses (FOTN). Both men have trained at American Top Team. Round 1 decides this.
THE DECIDING POINT
Dawson Defends Wrestling, Rebecki Hunts the KO
Dawson is the American wrestler (23-3-1, 11-2-1 UFC) with the classic top-control-and-cards profile. Rolls in off a R1 KO loss to Manuel Torres in January 2026 that snapped a 3-fight win streak (Solecki, Garcia, Ferreira) — chin red flag at 31. Rebecki is the Polish striker (20-4, 4-3 UFC) with two recent Fight of the Night bonuses in losses (Duncan UD, Klein UD), both competitive. Real KO power (45% career KO/TKO finish rate) but couldn't finish in his last two fights. Both have trained at American Top Team at some point — they know each other's game plans. Market opened Dawson — moderate favorite via the wrestling-heavy profile.
Tale of the Tape
Dawson 2 years younger.
Dawson 2 inches taller.
Even.
Same stance.
American camp vs Polish camp.
Current Form
Grant Dawson
R1 KO from a Mexican striker.
KO R1Wrestling-heavy UD.
UDUD over 3 rounds.
UDUD over a top-15 veteran.
UDUD over 3 rounds at UFC 300.
UDComing off a R1 KO loss to Manuel Torres at UFC 323 (January 2026), snapping a 3-fight win streak (Solecki UD, Garcia UD, Ferreira UD). Wrestling-heavy with a card-running profile.
Mateusz Rebecki
Competitive UD, FOTN.
UDCompetitive UD, FOTN.
UDSD at UFC 308.
Split DecisionR2 TKO.
TKO R2UD over a veteran.
UDComing off two straight decision losses (Klein UD May 2025, Duncan UD February 2025), both with Fight of the Night bonuses. Before that, SD over Myktybek Orolbai at UFC 308 (October 2024).
Level of Competition
Common opponent: Diego Ferreira. Dawson beat Ferreira via UD in October 2024. Rebecki LOST to Ferreira via R3 TKO in May 2024. Transitivity Dawson > Ferreira > Rebecki. Similar calibre across last 5 but Dawson with a direct edge over the common opponent.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes per Minute
Rebecki volume edge on the feet, striker profile.
Striking Accuracy (%)
Even.
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Dawson absorbs less via wrestling.
Striking Defense (%)
Even.
Takedowns per 15 Min
Dawson 3x more offensive wrestling.
Takedown Defense (%)
Dawson better TDD.
Dawson leads in 4 categories · Rebecki leads in 2
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Dawson decisions 57% of his wins (classic wrestler-runs-rounds profile). Rebecki finishes 75% by KO+sub combined. The numbers mirror the styles.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
All THREE of Dawson's losses came by KO/TKO: Bobby Green KO 0:33 R1 (UFC Fight Night 229), Manuel Torres KO R1 (UFC 323), and his first career loss also by knockout. Crystal-clear pattern: chin exposed against heavy striking, exactly Rebecki's profile (45% finish rate by KO). Rebecki has 4 losses spread out (1 KO, 1 sub, 2 dec), more durable. For value bets: Rebecki by KO is a realistic path given the documented Dawson vulnerability in his last 2 fights.
Skills Profile
Dawson
vs
Rebecki
Wrestling / Takedowns
+4 Dawson
Dawson 4.2 TD/15min vs 1.5. American identity.
Striking / KO Power
+3 Rebecki
Rebecki 45% KO/TKO finish rate. Dawson 17%.
Stand-up Volume
+2 Rebecki
Rebecki 4.5 SLpM vs 3.5.
Ground Game
+3 Dawson
Dawson has 6 subs in 23 (26%). Rebecki 6 in 20 (30%) but limited from below.
Cardio (3 rounds)
Even
Both consistent across 3 rounds.
Chin / Durability
+2 Rebecki
Rebecki only 1 KO loss in 4 defeats. Dawson just ate a recent KO.
Dawson dominates on the ground (wrestling, top control). Rebecki dominates standing (volume, KO power). Pivot question: can Dawson get the takedown and hold it?
Final Prediction
The Thesis
The thesis is: Grant Dawson wins because, first, he has 4.2 takedowns per 15 minutes and 70% TDD (wrestling-heavy identity).
The thesis is: Grant Dawson wins because, first, he has 4.2 takedowns per 15 minutes and 70% TDD (wrestling-heavy identity).
Second, consistent card-running profile (57% of wins via decision) against Rebecki who decisions 25% and rolls in off two straight UD losses.
Third, Dawson 2 years younger with proven cardio in recent wins (Solecki, Garcia, Ferreira UDs). Path: takedown in R1, top control 4-5 min/round, 30-27 UD. Falls apart if Rebecki lands an overhand right in the first 90 seconds, capitalizing on the chin recently exposed by the Torres KO.
Conviction
Conviction 6 because three dimensions converge but Dawson's chin question (KO loss January 2026) is a real red flag, and Rebecki has genuine KO power. I see Dawson winning if he can get takedowns in the early minutes.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
Rebecki lands an overhand right in the first 90 seconds
- 02
Dawson can't land takedowns in his first attempts
- 03
Dawson's chin doesn't hold against a striker on the feet
- 04
Dawson's cardio fades in R3
Underdog Path
Rebecki sprawls Dawson's first takedown attempts, opens distance with volume and timing. Lands an overhand right or hook to the head (his profile, 9 KOs in 20 wins). KO or TKO in rounds 1-2.
Required Conditions
- Sprawl the first takedown attempts
- Land a clean shot in the first 5 minutes
- Take advantage of Dawson's recently-exposed chin
- Don't give up the back in transition (Dawson's specialty)
— Precedent: Dawson ate a R1 KO from Torres at UFC 323. Rebecki has comparable KO power. Direct precedent exists, but Rebecki rolls in off 2 UDs without a recent finish.
Verdict
Winner
Grant Dawson
Method
Decision
Most Likely
- 01
Winner
Grant Dawson
Real probability 56%, implied = 60%. No big edge.
- 02
Method
Dawson by Decision
Dawson 57% of wins via decision. Rebecki only finished once. Real probability 40-45%, real edge.
- 03
Round Group
Over 2.5 rounds
Rebecki only finished once in 24 fights. Dawson 57% decision. More likely the fight reaches the late rounds.
Most Likely Outcome
Dawson by Decision
Highest expected edge. Dawson has the cards profile (57%) against Rebecki who rolls in off 2 UDs. Most likely scenario is a 30-27 UD.
Stats That Matter
4.2
Dawson's takedowns per 15 min
Elite wrestling. 3x more than Rebecki.
57%
Dawson's wins via decision
Classic wrestler-decisions-rounds profile.
45%
Rebecki's career KO/TKO rate
9 KOs in 20 wins. Polish striker.
R1
Round Dawson took a recent KO
Manuel Torres KO at UFC 323 (January 2026). Chin question.
The Trap
The Trap: Rebecki by KO
The market will pay heavy on 'Rebecki by KO' based on his 9 career KOs and Dawson's recent KO loss to Torres. But Rebecki rolls in off 2 UD losses without a recent finish, and Dawson is a wrestling-heavy fighter who'll force wrestling early. A specific KO scenario requires Dawson to fail at takedowns AND get exposed standing — both possible, but unlikely to converge.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Grant "KGD" Dawson vs Mateusz Rebecki | UFC 328: Chimaev vs Strickland | May 9, 2026 | Prudential Center, Newark, New Jersey