July 11, 2026 · T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Sandhagen
18-6-0
#4 BantamweightAurora, Colorado, USA | 34 years old
Bautista
17-3-0
#7 BantamweightWinnemucca, Nevada, USA | 33 years old
The Rematch, Seven Years Later
In 2019 Sandhagen submitted a green debutant in the first round. Today's Bautista is a black belt who beat Aldo and Patchy Mix on his way into the top 7. But beating the Sandman means controlling him on the mat, and that has never been Bautista's game.
QUEM BATE O SANDHAGEN
Range Decides Everything
It's a rematch, but it has nothing to do with 2019. That January, at UFC Fight Night 143, Sandhagen — in his fourth UFC fight — locked up an armbar on a green, debuting Bautista at 3:31 of round one. Seven years on, Bautista is a different man: a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt since 2022, 11-3 in the UFC, owner of an eight-fight winning streak that included decisions over legend José Aldo and former Bellator champ Patchy Mix, and planted in the top 7. He isn't the kid who got caught. Anyone using the old tape will fool themselves. Now, the read that decides it. Sandhagen is the more dynamic, higher-IQ striker — 5'11" at bantamweight, with the reach, the kicks, the spinning attacks and the ring generalship almost nobody in the division has, plus a granite chin: never knocked out in 24 fights, his only inside-the-distance loss a 2020 Sterling choke. Here's the key. The only men to beat Sandhagen in recent years are the two best wrestlers in the division, Umar Nurmagomedov and Merab Dvalishvili, who took him down and controlled him round after round. That's the blueprint. And Bautista, for all his grappling pedigree, is a scramble-and-submission finisher, not a smothering top-control chain-wrestler (1.91 takedowns per 15, 38% accuracy). He carries the nastier submission threat, but he doesn't have the exact tool that beats Cory. So it all comes down to range: at distance, Sandhagen picks him apart with length and volume; up close and in the grappling exchanges, Bautista's path opens. Whoever imposes his own range wins.
It's a rematch, but it has nothing to do with 2019. That January, at UFC Fight Night 143, Sandhagen — in his fourth UFC fight — locked up an armbar on a green, debuting Bautista at 3:31 of round one. Seven years on, Bautista is a different man: a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt since 2022, 11-3 in the UFC, owner of an eight-fight winning streak that included decisions over legend José Aldo and former Bellator champ Patchy Mix, and planted in the top 7. He isn't the kid who got caught. Anyone using the old tape will fool themselves. Now, the read that decides it. Sandhagen is the more dynamic, higher-IQ striker — 5'11" at bantamweight, with the reach, the kicks, the spinning attacks and the ring generalship almost nobody in the division has, plus a granite chin: never knocked out in 24 fights, his only inside-the-distance loss a 2020 Sterling choke. Here's the key. The only men to beat Sandhagen in recent years are the two best wrestlers in the division, Umar Nurmagomedov and Merab Dvalishvili, who took him down and controlled him round after round. That's the blueprint. And Bautista, for all his grappling pedigree, is a scramble-and-submission finisher, not a smothering top-control chain-wrestler (1.91 takedowns per 15, 38% accuracy). He carries the nastier submission threat, but he doesn't have the exact tool that beats Cory. So it all comes down to range: at distance, Sandhagen picks him apart with length and volume; up close and in the grappling exchanges, Bautista's path opens. Whoever imposes his own range wins.
Tale of the Tape
Ages are close, but Sandhagen has far more championship-level mileage
Sandhagen is 2 inches taller, unusual height for a bantamweight
Sandhagen carries a 1-inch reach edge. He's the longer man
The detail that changes the method math: you don't flatline the Sandman with one shot
Current Form
Cory Sandhagen
UFC 320. Challenged Merab Dvalishvili for the undisputed title and lost a unanimous decision. The Georgian's relentless wrestling put him on the mat again and again over five rounds. Not finished, just out-controlled.
Unanimous DecisionA brutal second-round TKO of former champ Deiveson Figueiredo. A reminder of Sandhagen's power and precision when the fight stays standing, at his range.
TKO R2Lost a unanimous decision to unbeaten Umar Nurmagomedov. A tight, competitive fight, but the Dagestani's wrestling and pace took the cards. Again the pattern: out-grappled by the elite, never finished.
Unanimous DecisionA unanimous decision over tough Rob Font in a five-round main event. A clinic in volume, range and ringcraft against a dangerous striker. Sandhagen dictated the distance start to finish.
Unanimous DecisionA split decision over Marlon Vera across five rounds. A hard, measured fight, with Sandhagen using footwork and reads to neutralize the Ecuadorian's power. A fight-IQ win.
Split DecisionSandhagen is #4, but he's won just one of his last three, and both losses came to the division's elite wrestlers: Umar Nurmagomedov by decision in 2024 and Merab Dvalishvili in a title challenge in October 2025, both controlling him on the mat. In between, he knocked out former champ Deiveson Figueiredo in the second round, a violent finish. That's the Sandhagen paradox: he dismantles or outclasses the tier below and gets ground out by the wrestling at the very top. At 34 he carries real mileage from five-round wars (Yan, Font, Umar, Merab), but he has never been knocked out. The question is whether the miles have taken a step off him, and whether Bautista is the type to exploit it. He isn't a Merab-level wrestler, which is why Cory is favored.
Mario Bautista
UFC Vegas 113, main event. Submitted Vinicius Oliveira with a second-round rear-naked choke and took Performance of the Night. An immediate answer to the Umar loss and proof the submission game is still lethal.
Submission R2UFC 321. Lost a unanimous decision to unbeaten Umar Nurmagomedov, ending his eight-fight streak. Competitive, not finished, but behind on the wrestling and the pace. The elite test is still unpassed.
Unanimous DecisionA unanimous decision over former Bellator champ Patchy Mix, one of the best bantamweights outside the UFC. A statement win that cemented Bautista in the top 10 and showcased grappling against grappling.
Unanimous DecisionA split decision over legend José Aldo. A career-defining win: he kept the pace, mixed striking and grappling, and outpointed one of the greatest of all time on the cards.
Split DecisionA unanimous decision over ranked Ricky Simon. The announcement that Bautista was a genuine top-15 threat, with volume and pressure sustained over three rounds.
Unanimous DecisionBautista is red-hot and was underrated for too long. He strung together an eight-fight UFC win streak that included a landmark split decision over legend José Aldo and a decision over former Bellator champ Patchy Mix, before Umar Nurmagomedov outpointed him in October 2025. He answered immediately, in February 2026, with a Performance-of-the-Night second-round rear-naked choke of Vinicius Oliveira. He's 11-3 in the UFC, a black belt, durable, high-volume and hitting his prime. The caveat: he's 0-for against the true elite (the Umar loss), and this is a big step up in dynamism and length. But he earned every inch of this rematch.
Level of Competition
The direct parallel is Umar Nurmagomedov, and it explains the fight. Both men lost to Umar by unanimous decision, neither finished: Sandhagen over five rounds in a tight one (August 2024), Bautista over three (October 2025). Neither got put away, both lost the wrestling and the pace battle. That tells you two things: both can hang with the elite, and the way to beat either man is control, not power. On resume, Sandhagen is deeper (Yan, Dillashaw, Sterling, Merab, plus the Figueiredo KO), while Bautista's elite ledger is shorter but genuinely rising (Aldo, Mix, Simon). Against the top 5, neither has won yet: Sandhagen falls to the elite, Bautista has only faced Umar so far.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes por Minuto
Bautista actually carries slightly more volume. Sandhagen's number was built against elite opposition that lands more
Precisão de Strikes (%)
Accuracy is close. Sandhagen's edge isn't in the raw number, it's in the type of shot, dynamic and at range
Strikes Absorvidos/Min
Sandhagen absorbs less, a sign of the defensive reads and reach that keep him out of danger
Defesa de Strikes (%)
Defense is close, slight edge Sandhagen. He's never been knocked out in 24 fights
Takedowns por 15 Min
Bautista lands more takedowns per 15, and he's the one who may want the mat in this fight
Precisão de Takedown (%)
Defesa de Takedown (%)
Even and both modest. Sandhagen's 56% is exactly what the elite exploited, but Bautista isn't an elite control wrestler
Submissões por 15 Min
Here's Bautista's biggest threat: black belt, 7 submissions, a fresh choke. If it hits the mat, he's dangerous
Sandhagen leads in 2 categories · Bautista leads in 5
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Both men finish, but in opposite ways. Sandhagen is more explosive on the feet: 8 knockouts, dynamic, with a flying knee and spinning kicks in the tank, but he's learned to win on the cards against the elite (7 decisions). Bautista is the grappler-finisher: 7 submissions lead his ledger, with only 3 knockouts, and he closes with the choke and ground-and-pound. It matters for the method: neither man tends to flatline the other on the feet (Bautista has just 1 KO loss and Sandhagen has never been knocked out), so the most realistic finish path in this fight is Bautista's mat game, and the most likely outcome of all is a decision.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
The loss profiles are the heart of this fight. Sandhagen has NEVER been knocked out: in 24 fights, zero losses by strikes. The only time he was finished was a Sterling rear-naked choke in 2020, and his other 5 losses all came by decision, to champions (Yan, Dillashaw, Umar, Merab) plus one early-career decision (Emmers). He doesn't get put away, he gets outworked over time by the elite. Bautista has a small sample, just 3 losses, but a telling one: submitted by Sandhagen himself in 2019 (green), knocked out by Trevin Jones in 2021, and outpointed by Umar in 2025. The practical read: you don't finish Sandhagen with one shot, you have to control him, and Bautista isn't that kind of wrestler. Bautista, in turn, can be knocked out and submitted, but in his prime he's hard to put away. Small loss sample for Bautista, so be careful with hard conclusions.
Skills Profile
Sandhagen
vs
Bautista
Striking em Distância
+3 Sandhagen
Sandhagen's kingdom. Reach, kicks, spinning attacks, footwork and reads at distance. Bautista would rather close the gap and fight up close.
Volume e Pressão
+1 Bautista
On paper Bautista pressures more and carries slightly higher volume (5.30 per minute). It's what keeps the fight competitive if he imposes his pace.
Grappling e Finalização
+2 Bautista
Bautista's most dangerous card: black belt, 7 submissions, a fresh Performance-of-the-Night choke. If it goes to the mat, he threatens from any position.
Wrestling e Controle
+1 Bautista
Bautista lands more takedowns, but he's a scramble grappler, not the smothering control wrestler who beat Sandhagen. Cory's 56% holds up against that type.
QI de Luta e Ringcraft
+2 Sandhagen
Elite ring generalship: feints, level changes, tempo. Sandhagen controls the geography of a fight as well as anyone in the division.
Durabilidade e Queixo
+2 Sandhagen
Sandhagen has never been knocked out in 24 fights. Bautista is tough, but he's been submitted and knocked out (Trevin Jones). The granite chin is Cory's.
Sandhagen wins the range, the fight IQ and the chin. Bautista wins the volume and the grappling threat. The fight is decided at distance: at range, Sandhagen picks him apart; up close and on the mat, Bautista's path opens. The question isn't who's more dangerous, it's where the fight happens. Whoever imposes his own range takes it.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
The thesis is: Cory Sandhagen wins because he's the more refined, dynamic, higher-IQ striker, with a real height and reach edge (5'11" to 5'9") and a chin that's never been knocked out in 24 fights, because his only recent losses came to the two best wrestlers in the division, Umar and Merab, who dominated him with top control, a script Bautista's scramble wrestling (1.91 takedowns per 15, 38% accuracy) can't replicate, and because Sandhagen's level of competition is higher: he knocked out former champ Figueiredo and shared the cage with Yan, Dillashaw, Sterling and Merab, while Bautista, for all his rise with Aldo and Mix, is still 0-for against the true elite.
The thesis is: Cory Sandhagen wins because he's the more refined, dynamic, higher-IQ striker, with a real height and reach edge (5'11" to 5'9") and a chin that's never been knocked out in 24 fights, because his only recent losses came to the two best wrestlers in the division, Umar and Merab, who dominated him with top control, a script Bautista's scramble wrestling (1.91 takedowns per 15, 38% accuracy) can't replicate, and because Sandhagen's level of competition is higher: he knocked out former champ Figueiredo and shared the cage with Yan, Dillashaw, Sterling and Merab, while Bautista, for all his rise with Aldo and Mix, is still 0-for against the true elite.
The path is Sandhagen keeping the fight at range, using the reach, the kicks and the volume, avoiding extended grappling exchanges, and banking a lead on the cards. It breaks down if Bautista closes the distance consistently and turns it into a clinch-and-mat scrap, or if the 34-year-old's mileage shows and drops his output and movement.
Conviction
Conviction 6, no higher, because Bautista is a genuinely live underdog: durable, higher-volume, a real black-belt submission threat, and riding wins over Aldo and Mix, while Sandhagen is 34 with real mileage and two losses in his last three. But it doesn't reach a coin-flip and doesn't invert, because the specific thing that beats Sandhagen is elite control wrestling (Umar, Merab), and Bautista, for all his grappling pedigree, is a scramble finisher with modest takedown numbers (1.91 per 15, 38%), not a smothering chain-wrestler. Add the superior level of competition (Sandhagen knocked out Figueiredo and shared the cage with Yan, Dillashaw, Umar, Merab) and the reach edge, and the lean is clear without being safe. This isn't a market read: the books have Sandhagen around, but the case rests on the style matchup and the documented profile of who actually beats Cory, not the line. No specific finishing pick for him (he wins by strikes and on the cards, the submission game is no longer the 2019 weapon), so the method is decision and the conviction sits in the middle.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
If Bautista closes the distance consistently and turns it into a clinch-and-mat scrap, he erases Sandhagen's reach and the striking edge evaporates.
- 02
If Sandhagen's mileage shows (34, off 25 minutes of Merab's wrestling, two losses in three) and his output or movement has dropped a step, he becomes an easier target.
- 03
If Bautista's takedowns and scrambles bank rounds early, in a three-round fight the shorter distance and higher variance can hand him a close decision.
- 04
If Bautista catches a scramble, he's a black belt with 7 submissions and a fresh Performance-of-the-Night choke, one mistake on the mat ends the night.
Underdog Path
Bautista doesn't need to out-strike Sandhagen at range, he needs to collapse the distance and make it ugly. High-volume pressure, clinch, and grappling scrambles, using the black-belt game to threaten a submission off any exchange and steal rounds. Sandhagen was taken down and controlled in each of his last two losses. Bautista is a lesser wrestler than Umar and Merab, but a nastier submission threat, and in a three-round fight (shorter, more variance) a fast start banking a round or two of grappling can flip the cards before Cory's technique compounds an edge.
Required Conditions
- Close the distance and refuse the range battle, where Sandhagen's reach and kicks rule
- Land takedowns and threaten submissions to bank rounds and neutralize Sandhagen's height
- Exploit Sandhagen's 34 years and mileage, and the higher variance of a three-round fight
- Don't get picked apart at distance and drop all three rounds standing before he can drag it to his game
— Precedent: Umar Nurmagomedov (August 2024) and Merab Dvalishvili (October 2025) beat Sandhagen the same way: getting on top and controlling on the mat. Grappling is the documented path to beating Cory. Bautista is a grappler (of the finishing kind) trying to walk that same road, with weaker wrestling than those two but a superior submission threat.
Verdict
Winner
Cory Sandhagen
Method
Decision
Most Likely
- 01
Winner
Cory Sandhagen
Sandhagen because he's the more technical, dynamic striker, with reach and a granite chin, and because Bautista isn't the elite control wrestler who actually beats Cory. The market already sees it slightly, so it's a moderate stake, no fat edge. Breaks if Bautista turns it into a grappling scrap and banks rounds early.
- 02
Method (favorite)
Sandhagen by decision
It's Sandhagen's cleanest path: outwork a tough opponent over 15 minutes at range. Both men are hard to finish (Bautista has just 1 KO loss, Sandhagen has never been knocked out), so the decision is where Cory's edge really shows. Estimated market odds. Breaks if he hurts Bautista late or if the fight turns into grappling.
- 03
Winner (underdog)
Mario Bautista (live underdog)
An honest nod to the underdog: Bautista is tough, higher-volume, a black belt with a real submission threat, and riding momentum over Aldo and Mix. If he closes the distance and drags it into the grappling, the upset is very live, and in a three-round fight the variance helps. A conscious longshot, not the main read.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandhagen by decision, moderate stake
In a conviction-6 fight, the soundest read isn't just the winner, it's the method. Both men are hard to put away and Sandhagen wins by strikes and on the cards, not by submission anymore, so a Sandhagen decision is the most likely path. Moderate stake because Bautista's submission threat on the mat keeps the finish risk alive the whole way.
Stats That Matter
0
knockouts suffered by Sandhagen in 24 fights. Granite chin, never flatlined
You don't switch off the Sandman with one shot, you have to control him, and that's not Bautista's game
8
straight UFC wins for Bautista before Umar, including Aldo and Patchy Mix
He isn't the green kid who got submitted in 2019. He's a real top 7
0W-5L
Sandhagen's record against the top 5. He beats the tier below and loses to the elite
But the men who beat Cory are control wrestlers (Umar, Merab), and Bautista isn't that type
The Trap
Treating it like a 2019 repeat
The public's instinct is to look at the 2019 armbar and the better-striker label and conclude easy Sandhagen. The trap lives in two places. First, that fight was seven years ago, against a green, debuting Bautista. Today's Bautista is a black belt who beat Aldo and Patchy Mix and is top 7. Second, Sandhagen is 34, coming off two losses in three, ate 25 minutes of Merab's wrestling, and carries real mileage. Betting a comfortable Sandhagen, or worse, a Sandhagen finish (the submission game is no longer the 2019 weapon, he wins by strikes and on the cards), ignores that Bautista is tough, live, and capable of stretching this into 15 hard minutes.
The public's instinct is to look at the 2019 armbar and the better-striker label and conclude easy Sandhagen. The trap lives in two places. First, that fight was seven years ago, against a green, debuting Bautista. Today's Bautista is a black belt who beat Aldo and Patchy Mix and is top 7. Second, Sandhagen is 34, coming off two losses in three, ate 25 minutes of Merab's wrestling, and carries real mileage. Betting a comfortable Sandhagen, or worse, a Sandhagen finish (the submission game is no longer the 2019 weapon, he wins by strikes and on the cards), ignores that Bautista is tough, live, and capable of stretching this into 15 hard minutes.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Cory "The Sandman" Sandhagen vs Mario Bautista | UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2 | July 11, 2026 | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
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