July 11, 2026 · T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Pinas
9-1-0
UnrankedParamaribo, Suriname | 24 years old
Almeida
7-2-0
UnrankedBrazil | 38 years old
Young Power, Veteran Craft
Pinas shows up 14 years younger, with a 14 cm reach edge and eight knockouts. Almeida shows up with 47 kickboxing wins and a chin nobody has ever cracked. The question is whether the veteran's craft survives the prospect's raw power.
O PONTO QUE DECIDE
The Kickboxing Clinic vs the Raw Power
Damian Pinas is one of the most explosive prospects in the division, and also the greenest. Nine wins, eight by knockout, seven in the first round, and one thing almost nobody has: in 10 pro fights he has never heard a judge's decision. He's never been legitimately beaten either — his only career loss is a disqualification for an illegal kick against Italo Gomes, not a result decided inside the fight. At 24, standing 6'1" with a freakish 79.5-inch reach, he debuted in the UFC by knocking out Wes Schultz in the first round. The problem is the résumé. His toughest test to date was that Schultz. The rest is regional Shooto Brasil and a Contender Series card. His chin, his gas tank, his fight IQ in deep water — all of it is still a question mark. Across from him stands a man who's seen everything. Cesar Almeida is 38 with an elite striking past: 47 kickboxing wins, a former WKN and WGP world champion, a trilogy against Alex Pereira himself. In MMA, he's never been finished. And here's the read that decides the fight: Almeida's only two UFC losses came against wrestlers — Kopylov and Oleksiejczuk — who ignored his striking reputation and took him to the mat. Pinas doesn't wrestle. Zero takedowns in his career, zero in the UFC. That removes the one recipe that has ever beaten the Brazilian. Almeida gets exactly the standing fight he wants. The question is whether, at 38 with a shorter gas tank, his craft solves the problem before the kid's reach and power do the talking — or whether the prospect lands the hand before the kickboxing clinic ever begins.
Damian Pinas is one of the most explosive prospects in the division, and also the greenest. Nine wins, eight by knockout, seven in the first round, and one thing almost nobody has: in 10 pro fights he has never heard a judge's decision. He's never been legitimately beaten either — his only career loss is a disqualification for an illegal kick against Italo Gomes, not a result decided inside the fight. At 24, standing 6'1" with a freakish 79.5-inch reach, he debuted in the UFC by knocking out Wes Schultz in the first round. The problem is the résumé. His toughest test to date was that Schultz. The rest is regional Shooto Brasil and a Contender Series card. His chin, his gas tank, his fight IQ in deep water — all of it is still a question mark. Across from him stands a man who's seen everything. Cesar Almeida is 38 with an elite striking past: 47 kickboxing wins, a former WKN and WGP world champion, a trilogy against Alex Pereira himself. In MMA, he's never been finished. And here's the read that decides the fight: Almeida's only two UFC losses came against wrestlers — Kopylov and Oleksiejczuk — who ignored his striking reputation and took him to the mat. Pinas doesn't wrestle. Zero takedowns in his career, zero in the UFC. That removes the one recipe that has ever beaten the Brazilian. Almeida gets exactly the standing fight he wants. The question is whether, at 38 with a shorter gas tank, his craft solves the problem before the kid's reach and power do the talking — or whether the prospect lands the hand before the kickboxing clinic ever begins.
Tale of the Tape
A 14-year chasm. Pinas is in his physical prime, Almeida in the back stretch of his career
Same height, both stand 6'1"
Here's the physical edge that decides it: Pinas carries 5.5 inches of reach in a striking fight
The striking pedigree Pinas has never faced. Almeida was a world kickboxing champion
Current Form
Damian Pinas
UFC Mexico City, Octagon debut. Landed a jab-cross and flattened Wes Schultz at 2:30 of round 1. An impact win, but over a low-tier debutant, the toughest test on his ledger so far.
KO/TKO R1Dana White's Contender Series. Doctor stoppage in round 1 at 1:46 after another jab-cross sequence. Earned his UFC contract, another opponent who never made it past five minutes.
TKO R1Shooto Brasil 127. Knockout by punch in round 1 at 1:59. Another early finish on the Brazilian regional circuit.
KO R1Shooto Brasil 125. Stopped Jhony Gregory with punches at 4:01 of round 1. Same pattern as always: pressure, power, over before the second round.
KO/TKO R1Shooto Brasil 121. The only blemish on his record, and it wasn't decided inside the fight: a disqualification for an illegal kick in round 1. Pinas has never been legitimately beaten or finished.
DQ R1 (illegal kick)Pinas is red-hot, but against whom is the caveat. It's five straight wins since the 2024 disqualification, all by finish before the judges, the last one a UFC-debut knockout of Wes Schultz in round one. Before that, the Contender Series stamp over Vitor Costa. The highlight reel is real and the power is scary. But the opposition was mostly regional Shooto Brasil, and the only UFC-level name he's met was a low-tier debutant. He's never been in trouble, never seen a third round, never been forced to think under pressure. Great momentum, the real test still ahead.
Cesar Almeida
UFC on ESPN 73. Lost a unanimous decision (30-27 across the board) to debutant Cezary Oleksiejczuk, who ignored his striking reputation and took him down all fight. The recipe that always beats Almeida: wrestling.
Unanimous DecisionUFC Vegas (Dern vs Ribas 2). Stood with the dangerous Abdul Razak Alhassan and put him out with a counter in round 1, at 4:16. A reminder of what his hands do when the fight stays standing.
KO/TKO R1UFC 307. Unanimous decision over Ihor Potieria. Won on the cards with the cleaner striking, proof he can operate three full rounds.
Unanimous DecisionUFC 302. Main-card debut. Lost a split decision to Kopylov, who swapped stand-up for wrestling and controlled him on the mat. First sign of the Brazilian's one real hole.
Split DecisionUFC Fight Night 240, Octagon debut. Stopped David Budka in round 2 and took Performance of the Night. Arrived in the UFC already carrying a world kickboxing pedigree.
KO/TKO R2Almeida's form is the exact portrait of this fight. He's 3-2 in the UFC and coming off a clear loss to Oleksiejczuk, a debutant who took him down and controlled all three rounds, 30-27 on all three cards. Same story as Kopylov in his UFC debut: when a wrestler gets hold of him, the Brazilian gets ground out. But note the inverse pattern. When the opponent agrees to stand, Almeida is lethal: he knocked out the tough Abdul Razak Alhassan in round one and decisioned Potieria. At 38, with a near year-long layoff before his last fight and some recent knockdowns, he runs back into exactly the kind of matchup he's built for: a striking duel against a man who won't take him down.
Level of Competition
There are no common opponents, and the résumé gap is the loudest number in this fight. Pinas built his record on regional Shooto Brasil (Silva, Gregory, Gomes) and a Contender Series, and the only UFC-level name he's faced was Wes Schultz, a debutant. Almeida, even in his two losses, shared the cage with real fighters: Kopylov, Potieria, the dangerous Alhassan and Oleksiejczuk, on top of a lifetime of elite kickboxing that includes a trilogy with Alex Pereira. Level of competition leans hard toward the Brazilian. What leans toward Pinas isn't résumé, it's physicality: 14 years younger, a 14 cm reach edge, and power Almeida has never faced at this size at 38.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes por Minuto
Pinas pours on volume, but his UFC sample is a single fight. Almeida is more economical and selective
Precisao de Strikes (%)
Accuracy is close. Almeida lands a touch cleaner, a product of the kickboxing craft
Strikes Absorvidos/Min
Almeida absorbs far less, tighter defense. Pinas exposes himself more when he wades in to trade
Defesa de Strikes (%)
Pinas' figure comes from a single UFC fight, so it's worth very little. Minimal sample
Takedowns por 15 Min
Neither man shoots for takedowns. This is a 100% standing fight
Precisao de Takedown (%)
Neither man has attempted a takedown in the UFC. A dead stat in this fight
Defesa de Takedown (%)
Almeida's hole (52%) is wrestling, but Pinas doesn't shoot, so it'll never be tested here
Submissoes por 15 Min
Neither man is a submission threat. This gets decided by punches, not on the mat
Pinas leads in 3 categories · Almeida leads in 3
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Both men finish, but from opposite origins. Pinas is the pure MMA hunter: 8 knockouts and 1 submission in 9 wins, ZERO decisions in his career, and seven of the finishes came in round one. He needs early impact, and he's never needed anything else. Almeida brings 5 knockouts and 2 decisions in MMA, but the number that matters sits outside that count: 27 knockouts and 47 wins in kickboxing. The Brazilian's power is old and proven at world level. For the method: Pinas wants it over early and doesn't know how to do it differently; Almeida can win with the hands early or build on the cards.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Small sample on both sides, so read it carefully, but the loss profiles decide the fight. Pinas technically has 1 loss, and it wasn't even decided inside the fight: a disqualification for an illegal kick against Italo Gomes (bucketed here under decision since it's a non-finish). He's never been legitimately beaten or finished. Almeida has 2 losses, both by decision, and both telling: he lost to Kopylov and Oleksiejczuk, the two wrestlers who took him down and controlled him. The Brazilian has never been finished in MMA. The practical read: the only recipe that has ever beaten Almeida is wrestling, and Pinas doesn't shoot. So the Brazilian gets the standing fight he wants. On the other side, Pinas' chin is a blank page — nobody has ever gotten to it.
Skills Profile
Pinas
vs
Almeida
Striking em Distancia
+2 Pinas
Pinas has 5.5 inches of reach and high volume. At long range, his length and jab-cross run the show.
Tecnica de Striking
+2 Almeida
Almeida is a former world kickboxing champion. Technique, timing and countering are on another level if this turns into a technical duel.
Poder de Nocaute
Even
Both men crack. Pinas has 8 early MMA knockouts; Almeida has 27 kickboxing KOs and flattened Alhassan. Mutual danger.
Durabilidade e Queixo
+1 Almeida
Almeida has never been finished in MMA, a kickboxer's chin. But he's 38 and took recent knockdowns. Pinas has never been tested, chin an unknown.
Experiencia e Nivel de Competicao
+4 Almeida
A glaring gap. Almeida faced Kopylov, Alhassan, Oleksiejczuk and a lifetime of elite kickboxing. Pinas has only seen the regional circuit and a debutant.
Aguas Profundas e Cardio
+2 Almeida
Almeida has gone to decisions and knows how to operate three rounds. Pinas has never been past the second, deep water is 100% unknown to him.
On the skill sheet, Almeida wins more boxes: technique, experience, proven durability and deep water. Pinas takes range and explosion, and it's even on power. The question isn't who's more skilled — it's Almeida. The question is whether the prospect's youth, 5.5-inch reach and raw power solve the problem before the veteran's kickboxing clinic begins, and whether a 38-year-old gas tank can hold the pace of a kid in his prime.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
The thesis is: Damian Pinas wins because he brings the physical edge that matters most in a striking fight — 14 years younger, 5.5 inches of reach, and one-shot power Almeida has never faced at this size at 38 — and because the only recipe that has ever beaten the Brazilian is wrestling, which Pinas doesn't use, a fact that removes Almeida's takedown risk but also hands the veteran the standing fight he wants. Pinas' path is to use the length and the jab-cross to control distance, punish on the way in, and land the power early, before the veteran's experience and three-round cardio become a factor. It breaks down if Almeida survives the early explosion (he's never been finished) and drags it into the third round, where Pinas has never been, or if the former world champion's technique and counter timing punish the reckless entries of a prospect who absorbs plenty and has never faced a striker of this class.
The thesis is: Damian Pinas wins because he brings the physical edge that matters most in a striking fight — 14 years younger, 5.5 inches of reach, and one-shot power Almeida has never faced at this size at 38 — and because the only recipe that has ever beaten the Brazilian is wrestling, which Pinas doesn't use, a fact that removes Almeida's takedown risk but also hands the veteran the standing fight he wants. Pinas' path is to use the length and the jab-cross to control distance, punish on the way in, and land the power early, before the veteran's experience and three-round cardio become a factor. It breaks down if Almeida survives the early explosion (he's never been finished) and drags it into the third round, where Pinas has never been, or if the former world champion's technique and counter timing punish the reckless entries of a prospect who absorbs plenty and has never faced a striker of this class.
Conviction
Conviction 5, no higher, because this is a genuine coin-flip and the favorite is the less-proven side of the scale. The Pinas thesis leans on concrete dimensions (physicality, reach, power, and the fact that wrestling — the only recipe that beats Almeida — is out of his game), but it deliberately ignores the hardest number on the other side: level of competition. Pinas has never faced anyone close to Almeida, and the Brazilian gets exactly the standing fight he dominates, with no takedown risk. Pinas' chin and deep-water cardio are blank pages, and Almeida has never been finished. What keeps the lean on the prospect and doesn't invert it is the glaring physical edge — 14 years and 5.5 inches of reach — against a 38-year-old with a shorter gas tank, low volume and recent knockdowns. This isn't a market read: the books have Pinas too rich, and I see Almeida far more alive than the line suggests. The edge comes from the style-and-physique read, not from following the money.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
If Almeida survives the first two rounds and drags it into the third, ground Pinas has never touched, the veteran's cardio and poise can swing a fight that was still open.
- 02
Almeida has never been finished in MMA and both his losses came on the cards, against wrestlers. Betting Pinas by knockout runs into a chin nobody has ever cracked.
- 03
If Almeida's technique and counter timing punish Pinas' reckless entries — he absorbs 3.75 strikes per minute — the prospect could be exposed for the first time in his career.
- 04
Level of competition: all of Pinas' power reads were built against regional opposition. He's never faced anyone close to Almeida's class of striker.
Underdog Path
Almeida doesn't need to change a thing about his game. The prospect wades in, and the former kickboxing champ, with the better timing and the cleaner technique in the fight, counters the reckless entry — exactly how he flattened Alhassan. He weathers the raw power early, because he's never been finished in MMA, drags the fight into the third round, ground Pinas has never seen, and builds with precision and a cool head to the cards. It's the classic script of the technical veteran exposing the hyped young hunter once the fight gets past the first storm.
Required Conditions
- Survive the early explosion and Pinas' one-shot power in the first five minutes
- Use timing and counters to punish the reckless entries of a prospect who absorbs 3.75 strikes per minute
- Don't let Pinas' 5.5-inch reach edge control distance all fight — close the gap at the right moment
- Drag it into the third round, deep water Pinas has never touched, where experience and cardio decide
— Precedent: Almeida's two UFC losses (Kopylov and Oleksiejczuk) came from men who took him down, never from men who stood and traded with him. Pinas doesn't shoot, which removes the only recipe that has ever beaten the Brazilian. Almeida is a former world kickboxing champion (47-8-1, an Alex Pereira trilogy) who's never been finished across 9 MMA fights, facing a prospect whose toughest test was Wes Schultz, a debutant. The mold of the veteran striker exposing the raw hunter once the fight stretches is common, and it's on his side.
Verdict
Winner
Damian Pinas
Method
KO/TKO
Most Likely
- 01
Winner
Damian Pinas
Pinas because reach, youth and power decide a striking fight, and because wrestling — the only recipe that beats Almeida — is out of his game. But is too rich for a fighter this untested. If you're going to play the favorite, small stake only; the price doesn't pay the risk.
- 02
Winner (underdog)
Cesar Almeida
Here's the real value. The market overvalues Pinas' highlight reel and ignores that Almeida is a world-level striker, never finished, who gets exactly the standing fight he wants since Pinas doesn't shoot. (implied ~35%), with the Brazilian around 41% in my read, that's a live dog at a fat price.
- 03
Total Rounds
Under 1.5 rounds
Pinas finishes early or not at all: seven of nine wins came in round one and he's never seen a third. Both men tend to end things fast. A conscious longshot, not the main read. It breaks because Almeida's chin has never been cracked in MMA, so the early finish runs into a tough out.
Most Likely Outcome
Cesar Almeida, small-to-moderate stake
My winner lean is Pinas, but the favorite offers no value at all. The market's distortion sits on the dog: Almeida (implied ~35%) is underpriced for a world-level striker, never finished, who avoids the takedown that's the only thing that's ever beaten him. Picking Pinas to win and betting the right number don't contradict each other — you play where the price is wrong.
Stats That Matter
79.5"
Pinas' reach in inches, 5.5 more than Almeida. In a striking fight, the length and the power belong to the kid
14 years younger and the longer man. The physical edge that props up the favorite tag
ZERO
decisions in Pinas' career across 10 fights. He finishes early or not at all, has never seen a third round or been legitimately beaten
Chin, cardio and IQ in deep water remain total unknowns
47-8-1
Almeida's kickboxing record as a former world champion. The striking pedigree Pinas has never faced
Never finished in MMA. His 2 losses came from wrestlers, not strikers
The Trap
Pinas by easy R1 knockout
The market jumped Pinas from at open to near, riding the eight knockouts and the highlight reel. The trap is treating it as a guaranteed execution. Pinas has never faced anyone close to Almeida's caliber: his ledger is regional Shooto Brasil plus a knockout over a debutant. Almeida is a former world kickboxing champion, has never been finished in MMA, and his only two losses came from wrestlers who took him down — something Pinas doesn't do. Betting Pinas by easy finish ignores that the Brazilian gets exactly the standing fight he dominates, against a 24-year-old who's never seen a third round and never faced technique at this level.
The market jumped Pinas from at open to near, riding the eight knockouts and the highlight reel. The trap is treating it as a guaranteed execution. Pinas has never faced anyone close to Almeida's caliber: his ledger is regional Shooto Brasil plus a knockout over a debutant. Almeida is a former world kickboxing champion, has never been finished in MMA, and his only two losses came from wrestlers who took him down — something Pinas doesn't do. Betting Pinas by easy finish ignores that the Brazilian gets exactly the standing fight he dominates, against a 24-year-old who's never seen a third round and never faced technique at this level.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Damian "The Baba Yaga" Pinas vs Cesar "Cesinha" Almeida | UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2 | July 11, 2026 | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
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