June 20, 2026 · Meta APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Lima
11-0-0
UnrankedGuarulhos, Sao Paulo, Brazil | 26 years old
Borjas
10-5-0
UnrankedLima, Peru | 28 years old
The Complete Fighter vs. The Puncher
Undefeated and well-rounded on one side, heavy hands and desperation on the other. The question is whether Borjas' shot lands before the clock runs out.
THE DECIDING FACTOR
The Shot Has To Land First
This fight has one needle, and it points at the clock. Borjas is a legit regional finisher — six of his ten wins came by knockout, and he carries the kind of pop in his hands that puts people away on the South American circuit. But in the UFC that power has vanished: 1-4, four losses in his last five, and the freshest image is him getting battered into a second-round stoppage by Imanol Rodriguez in February. On the other side is a complete, undefeated fighter. Lima lands 60 percent of his significant strikes, has real takedowns, and submitted Daniel Barez with a rear-naked choke in round three to bank a Performance of the Night bonus.
This fight has one needle, and it points at the clock. Borjas is a legit regional finisher — six of his ten wins came by knockout, and he carries the kind of pop in his hands that puts people away on the South American circuit. But in the UFC that power has vanished: 1-4, four losses in his last five, and the freshest image is him getting battered into a second-round stoppage by Imanol Rodriguez in February. On the other side is a complete, undefeated fighter. Lima lands 60 percent of his significant strikes, has real takedowns, and submitted Daniel Barez with a rear-naked choke in round three to bank a Performance of the Night bonus.
Truth A
Borjas still has the shot. Six career knockouts, genuine heavy hands, and all it takes is one clean sequence in the opening minutes to flip any flyweight fight before the favorite settles into his rhythm.
Truth B
But Borjas absorbs 5.64 significant strikes per minute on 49 percent defense. Against a precise striker who also threatens the takedown, time is the enemy. The longer this fight lasts, the more it belongs to Lima.
Tale of the Tape
Lima two inches taller
Borjas a hair longer, but he uses it badly
Current Form
Andre Lima
UFC Vegas 104. Performance of the Night. Showed the full package: outstruck Barez standing, then closed it on the mat with the choke in round three.
Sub R3 (rear-naked choke, 3:05)Controlled all three rounds against a dangerous countryman. Volume and accuracy banking a comfortable decision.
Unanimous DecisionUFC 302, at a 130 lb catchweight. A leg-kick clinic and clean movement. The only close fight of his UFC run.
Split DecisionUFC debut. Lima was ahead when Severino bit him and got disqualified. He banked the strangest bonus of the year, but the truth is he was winning the fight.
Win by DQ R2 (biting)Four wins in four UFC fights, undefeated through eleven pro bouts. The most important takeaway is his last outing: against Barez he wasn't just the cleaner striker, he finished on the ground and took a bonus. He's a fighter who scales with the fight, getting more dangerous as the rounds pile up. The honest caveat is the calibre — he hasn't faced anyone ranked, and his level of UFC opposition has been regional-and-below.
Kevin Borjas
UFC Mexico. Started well and hurt Imanol early, but got reckless and was stopped by punches in the second round. The freshest image is a bad one.
TKO R2 (punches, 4:21)Lost at range to a taller, more technical flyweight. Never got his heavy hands going.
Unanimous DecisionHis only UFC win. Showed he can survive and score when he isn't headhunting for the knockout every second.
Unanimous DecisionUFC 301. Got controlled on the mat and finished from top position. Proof his defense caves once the fight hits the floor.
TKO R2 (ground-and-pound from back mount, 1:35)UFC debut against the man who'd go on to win the flyweight title. An active scrap, but Borjas lost all three rounds. His calibre wasn't the problem here — the result was.
Unanimous DecisionA grim stretch. 1-4 in the UFC, four losses in his last five, a two-fight skid, and a roster spot clearly on the line. The two stoppages by strikes (Imanol and Costa) point to a worrying pattern: when the fight gets hairy, Borjas gets reckless and his defense falls apart. The silver lining is that he's never lost to a scrub — that debut loss was to current champ Joshua Van — but a result is a result.
Level of Competition
No common opponents. The contrast is the whole point: Borjas faced a slightly higher level — he lost to now-champion Joshua Van — and still piled up losses, while Lima has won everything against more modest opposition. The Peruvian's calibre isn't the issue, his results are. That reinforces the Lima pick rather than weakening it.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes Landed per Minute
Similar volume, but the quality of the strike is wildly different
Striking Accuracy (%)
A 16-point gap. Lima hits what he aims at, Borjas throws into the air
Sig. Strikes Absorbed per Minute
Borjas absorbs more than double. A scary number
Striking Defense (%)
The Peruvian's porous defense is what decides this fight
Takedowns per 15 Min
Borjas has never landed a UFC takedown. Lima has a dimension the Peruvian simply doesn't
Takedown Accuracy (%)
Takedown Defense (%)
Submissions per 15 Min
Lima carries a submission threat, Borjas is at zero
Lima leads in 8 categories · Borjas leads in 0
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Lima is the more versatile fighter: five knockouts, one rear-naked choke, and five wins that didn't come by finish (four decisions plus the DQ win over Severino, the biting one). He wins every way. Borjas is more one-dimensional — six of his ten wins by knockout and zero career submissions, he's a puncher. The trouble is that power hasn't translated to the UFC, where he sits at 1-4. Versatility against a single path, and the Peruvian's one path is shut against this opponent.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Since Lima is undefeated, only Borjas has a loss distribution, and it tells the whole story. Of his five losses, two came by strikes (Imanol and Costa, both in the second round) and one by submission — meaning three of five defeats had him stopped, not just outpointed. The stoppages by punches both standing and on the ground show his defense caves once the fight gets hard. That ties directly into the method: Lima has five knockouts and a choke to exploit exactly that hole, even if the likeliest path to victory is still a decision, since the Peruvian is durable enough to avoid an early disaster.
Skills Profile
Lima
vs
Borjas
Striking at Range
+3 Lima
Lima lands 60 percent at range and mixes leg kicks with his hands. Borjas has the reach but only 44 percent accuracy.
Striking in the Pocket
+1 Borjas
This is where Borjas' power shows up most. In the pocket his heavy hands are a real threat if Lima plants in front of him.
Knockout Power
+2 Borjas
Six of Borjas' ten wins by knockout. He's more explosive in a single shot, even if that power hasn't shown up in the UFC.
Striking Defense
+4 Lima
The biggest gap in the fight. Lima's 58 percent defense and 2.49 absorbed against Borjas' 49 percent and 5.64.
Grappling and Clinch
+4 Lima
Lima has real takedowns and a career rear-naked choke. Borjas has zero UFC takedowns and has been finished by ground strikes.
Cardio (3 rounds)
+2 Lima
Lima scales with the fight and finished in round three. Borjas tends to get reckless and has been stopped in the second twice.
The profile is lopsided in almost every box. Borjas only edges the two boxes tied to one-shot power, and even those edges are theoretical because his regional knockout pop hasn't shown up in the cage. Lima is better where the fight spends most of its time: range, defense, and the mat.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
The thesis: Andre Lima wins because he's the more complete and technically cleaner fighter, landing 60 percent of his significant strikes with a real takedown-and-submission game (the rear-naked choke over Barez in round three plus a Performance of the Night bonus in March 2025); because Borjas arrives in structural freefall, 1-4 in the UFC, losers of four of his last five, absorbing 5.64 strikes per minute on just 49 percent defense; and because, qualitatively, the Peruvian is coming off a second-round TKO loss to Imanol in February that reopened his defensive frailty, on top of a track record of vanishing when the level rises (he lost to now-champion Van).
The thesis: Andre Lima wins because he's the more complete and technically cleaner fighter, landing 60 percent of his significant strikes with a real takedown-and-submission game (the rear-naked choke over Barez in round three plus a Performance of the Night bonus in March 2025); because Borjas arrives in structural freefall, 1-4 in the UFC, losers of four of his last five, absorbing 5.64 strikes per minute on just 49 percent defense; and because, qualitatively, the Peruvian is coming off a second-round TKO loss to Imanol in February that reopened his defensive frailty, on top of a track record of vanishing when the level rises (he lost to now-champion Van).
The path is Lima dictating the pace at range, threatening the takedown to keep Borjas honest, and either banking rounds or punishing a defensive lapse late. It falls apart if Borjas lands one of the heavy hooks that produced his six regional knockouts before Lima settles in, because the Brazilian has never been knocked out but has also never eaten a real shot in the UFC.
Conviction
Conviction 7 because the thesis stands on four independent dimensions that all converge: the numbers (accuracy, defense, takedowns, submission), the momentum (Borjas' four-in-five skid), the style (complete fighter against a one-dimensional puncher with no plan B), and the competition level (the Peruvian vanishes when the calibre climbs). It doesn't go to 8-plus for two concrete, non-statistical reasons: Lima still has a small UFC sample and has never faced anyone ranked, and Borjas' regional knockout power is a genuine one-shot equalizer that caps conviction in any flyweight fight. This is a pick that agrees with the market, and that's stated openly: the edge here is confirmation, not a contrarian read.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
If Borjas lands a clean sequence of heavy hands in the first round, before Lima finds his rhythm, his shot wipes out all the accumulated technical edge, because Lima's chin has never truly been tested in the UFC.
- 02
If Lima plants in front of Borjas instead of circling and working at range, he steps into the one box where the Peruvian holds an edge, the pocket where the heavy hands live.
- 03
If Borjas brings back the patient version that beat Ronaldo Rodriguez, rather than the reckless one against Imanol, he could drag this to the cards and steal rounds with volume in a phone-booth exchange.
Underdog Path
Borjas needs this to be a one-shot fight. He comes out aggressive in round one, forces the pocket, and before Lima sets his accuracy, lands one of the heavy hands that produced his six regional knockouts. Since Lima has never been rocked in the UFC, there's no proof of how his chin reacts to a committed puncher. If the shot lands clean in the first five minutes, the underdog flips it all at once.
Required Conditions
- Land a clean sequence of heavy hands in round one, before Lima finds his rhythm at range
- Force the pocket, where his power lives, instead of staying on the end of the Brazilian's range
- Don't get reckless and open up his defense early like he did against Imanol in February
— Precedent: Borjas' own pattern: he hurt Imanol Rodriguez early in February 2026 before losing. The heavy hand arrives; the question is sustaining it and not getting exposed afterward. There's no clean precedent of an underdog of this archetype beating an undefeated, complete favorite, which keeps the probability low.
Verdict
Winner
Andre Lima
Method
Unanimous Decision
Most Likely
- 01
Method
Andre Lima by decision
Lima most likely wins by banking rounds, because Borjas is durable enough to avoid an early stoppage (took Van three rounds, survived to round two against finishers). The market pays here because it's chasing the knockout. Breaks if Borjas gets reckless and opens up his defense early.
- 02
Goes the distance / no R1 finish
Fight does NOT end by finish in round one
Lima isn't a first-round finisher (his Barez KO came in round three) and Borjas is durable enough to survive the opening. The value is in dodging the early-KO hype. Breaks only if Borjas' shot lands flush in the first seconds.
- 03
Total Rounds
Over 1.5 rounds
Pairs Lima's habit of scaling with the fight against Borjas' early durability. Both of the Peruvian's stoppages came in round two, not round one. The over/under is safer here than calling a method. Breaks if either man lands an early knockout shot.
Most Likely Outcome
Andre Lima by decision
It's the likeliest way the favorite wins and it still pays above even money. Lima is better at almost everything, but Borjas lasts. This isn't a low-risk knockout bet, it's the read that the Brazilian piles it up and takes the cards comfortably.
Stats That Matter
5.64
significant strikes absorbed per minute by Borjas in the UFC
More than double Lima's 2.49, on just 49 percent defense
1-4
Borjas' UFC record, with four losses in his last five fights
Two of those losses were stoppages by strikes, the latest in February 2026
60%
Lima's striking accuracy, against Borjas' 44 percent
A 16-point gap in the quality of the strike that lands
The Trap
Lima by first-round knockout
The whole scorecard screams Lima, and the temptation is to grab the favorite for an early knockout assuming it'll be easy. But Lima isn't a first-round finisher — his only UFC stoppage came in round three against Barez, and four of his eleven wins were decisions or a DQ. Borjas is durable enough to reach round two (he took now-champion Van the full three). If you want Lima inside the distance, the right window is round two or three, not round one.
The whole scorecard screams Lima, and the temptation is to grab the favorite for an early knockout assuming it'll be easy. But Lima isn't a first-round finisher — his only UFC stoppage came in round three against Barez, and four of his eleven wins were decisions or a DQ. Borjas is durable enough to reach round two (he took now-champion Van the full three). If you want Lima inside the distance, the right window is round two or three, not round one.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Andre "Mascote" Lima vs Kevin "El Gallo Negro" Borjas | UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi | June 20, 2026 | Meta APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
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