July 18, 2026 · Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA
Harris
5-0-0
UnrankedZanesville, Ohio | 27 years old
Hines
7-1-0
UnrankedGrand Rapids, Minnesota | 34 years old
The Hammer Against the Veteran
Harris arrives undefeated and on short notice, with four of his five wins by finish and a giant's reach. Hines has already felt the Octagon lights, but he returns at 34, off a full year out for a steroid suspension. At heavyweight, one shot is all it takes.
O PONTO QUE DECIDE
The Debut Against the Experience
This is a clash between two unknowns of opposite kinds. RJ Harris walks in undefeated at 5-0, standing 6-foot-6 with an 80-inch reach that turns an opponent's neck into a target. Four of his five wins came by finish before the cards, three of them by choke or lock. The catch that matters: he has never fought in the UFC, he took this slot on short notice replacing Allen Frye, and his entire record was built on the regional circuit, LFA, Caged Thunder, Ohio Combat League. Nobody has tested him under the big lights yet. Across from him stands almost the exact opposite. Alvin Hines is 7-1, he has already stepped into the Octagon and survived three hard rounds against Jhonata Diniz at UFC 317, dropping a tight 29-28 decision on all three cards. He has never been finished or knocked out in his entire career, and he brings the heaviest hands in this matchup, with three knockout wins. But Hines comes in at 34, off a full year on the shelf, suspended for Drostanolone and testosterone, cut by the UFC and re-signed for this return. The question that decides the night is an honest one: do the size and hunger of the 27-year-old undefeated prospect beat the rust and age of the veteran, or does Hines' Octagon experience expose a regional fighter who has never seen this level?
This is a clash between two unknowns of opposite kinds. RJ Harris walks in undefeated at 5-0, standing 6-foot-6 with an 80-inch reach that turns an opponent's neck into a target. Four of his five wins came by finish before the cards, three of them by choke or lock. The catch that matters: he has never fought in the UFC, he took this slot on short notice replacing Allen Frye, and his entire record was built on the regional circuit, LFA, Caged Thunder, Ohio Combat League. Nobody has tested him under the big lights yet. Across from him stands almost the exact opposite. Alvin Hines is 7-1, he has already stepped into the Octagon and survived three hard rounds against Jhonata Diniz at UFC 317, dropping a tight 29-28 decision on all three cards. He has never been finished or knocked out in his entire career, and he brings the heaviest hands in this matchup, with three knockout wins. But Hines comes in at 34, off a full year on the shelf, suspended for Drostanolone and testosterone, cut by the UFC and re-signed for this return. The question that decides the night is an honest one: do the size and hunger of the 27-year-old undefeated prospect beat the rust and age of the veteran, or does Hines' Octagon experience expose a regional fighter who has never seen this level?
Tale of the Tape
Harris is 7 years younger and far fresher in career mileage
Harris has a 4-inch height edge, he's the giant of the matchup
A huge reach gap: Harris carries a 6-inch edge
Harris has yet to step into the Octagon. Hines has already gone three rounds in it
Current Form
RJ Harris
LFA 231. Choked out Phillip Latu with a guillotine in round 2. The detail that ties the fight together: it's the same Latu that Hines submitted on his pro debut. Both men ran over the same opponent.
Submission (Guillotine)LFA 223. Stopped Al Marro in the first round. His debut in the UFC's top feeder wrapped up early, showing the power that comes with the size.
KO/TKO R1Caged Thunder 34. The one time he went to the cards: he dominated Green across three rounds for a unanimous decision. Proof, regional as it is, that he can fight a full clip.
Unanimous DecisionCaged Thunder 32. Locked in an Americana and finished Cleveland in round 2. Another lock added to the big man's resume.
Submission (Americana)Ohio Combat League 36. Submitted Campbell in the first round. His pattern from the start: use the size, wrap up the neck, end it early.
Submission R1Harris is riding a perfect run at 5-0, with four finishes and the lone decision a clear three-round beatdown. He climbed from the Ohio Combat League to Caged Thunder and on to LFA, the UFC's top feeder, where he stopped Al Marro in the first round and choked out Phillip Latu with a guillotine. The caveat isn't the momentum, it's the leap: that whole run came against opponents with no UFC pedigree, and he accepted this debut on short notice. The talent is real, the test is brand new.
Alvin Hines
UFC 317, Las Vegas. Octagon debut on short notice against Diniz. He weathered three rounds and showed plenty of heart, but lost a unanimous decision, 29-28 across all three cards. He proved he belongs at the level even in defeat.
Unanimous DecisionClosed out his pre-UFC record undefeated by stopping Billy Ray Valdez via TKO in the third round. Proof the power lasts past five minutes when it has.
KO/TKO R3Submitted Junior Hicks with an arm-triangle in the first round. A reminder that Hines' ground game is more complete than the puncher label suggests.
Submission (Arm-Triangle)Flattened Mark Currier via TKO in the first round. One of the three knockouts behind his heavy-handed reputation.
KO/TKO R1TKO over Taylor Escamilla in the second round. Part of the run that earned him the LFA Fighter of the Year nomination.
KO/TKO R2Hines' momentum is the most delicate part of his read. Before the UFC he was 7-0, with six wins by finish, and he earned an LFA Fighter of the Year nomination. But the last time he fought was over a year ago: he lost his Octagon debut to Diniz, also on short notice, then tested positive for a steroid, drew a one-year ban and got cut. He returns at 34, re-signed, with the real unknown of who he is without the PED and after so long away. What holds up for him is Octagon experience and a chin that has never failed.
Level of Competition
Neither man built his record against a ranked opponent, so the level has to be read through clues. Harris won five times on the regional circuit (LFA, Caged Thunder, Ohio Combat League) without facing anyone of UFC caliber. Hines holds the clear edge in Octagon experience: he has already felt the big lights and lasted three rounds with Diniz, a UFC heavyweight, even in a losing effort. And there's a direct parallel tying the two together: both men ran over Phillip Latu, Hines submitting him on his pro debut in 2023 (rear-naked choke) and Harris on a guillotine in 2026. Common opponent, same result, which says little about who's favored and a lot about both men having a real finishing game.
Statistical Comparison
Vitórias na Carreira
Hines has two more years on the clock and a UFC fight. Harris arrives raw at this level
Taxa de Finalização (%)
Both are heavy finishers. At heavyweight, that means a night of high variance
Vitórias por Nocaute
Hines is the puncher. He brings the heaviest hands in the matchup
Vitórias por Finalização
Even on the mat. Harris has the reach to find the neck, Hines has the triangle and the rear-naked choke
Vitórias por Decisão
Derrotas na Carreira
Harris is undefeated. Hines has fallen just once, and has never been finished or knocked out
Lutas no UFC
The Octagon experience weighs for Hines. Harris debuts on short notice
Harris leads in 1 categories · Hines leads in 4
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Both men live off the finish, but by different routes. Harris has 5 wins, 4 of them before the cards: 3 submissions (all chokes or locks) and 1 knockout, just 1 decision. He's a neck hunter who uses his size. Hines is more complete on offense: of his 7 wins, 3 came by knockout and 3 by submission, with 1 decision. He hits harder and he also finishes. It matters a lot for the method: neither man wants this to go long, and at heavyweight it rarely does.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Small-sample warning, and it matters: Harris has never lost (0 defeats) and Hines has fallen just once, so any read on vulnerability here is fragile. What can be said honestly is the profile of Hines' lone loss: it came by decision, to Diniz, at UFC 317. He has never been finished or knocked out in eight pro fights. In other words, the historical path to beating him has been to bank points over the rounds, not to switch him off early. That's a direct warning against any automatic quick-finish prediction over him. Harris, with no loss on record, offers no clue at all as to how he goes down, which is the very unknown of the debut.
Skills Profile
Harris
vs
Hines
Striking em Distância
+2 Harris
Harris has a 6-inch reach and 4-inch height edge. At heavyweight, the range to land first and keep an opponent at bay is an advantage that doesn't disappear.
Poder de Nocaute
+1 Hines
Hines has the heavier, more proven power, three knockouts, and the more tested chin. Up close, his hands decide.
Grappling e Clinch
+1 Harris
Both men truly finish and both ran over the same Latu. Harris has the giant frame to sink a choke, Hines has the triangle and the rear-naked choke. A slight edge to Harris' reach.
Defesa de Striking
+1 Hines
Hines has never been finished or knocked out and survived three hard rounds with Diniz. Harris rarely needed the cards. Defensive edge to the man who has proven his chin.
Cardio
+2 Harris
Harris is 27 and actively competing. Hines returns at 34 off a year out for a suspension. Freshness and competitive rhythm weigh for the undefeated man in a division that gasses fast.
Experiência
+2 Hines
This is where Hines pulls ahead: he has already felt the UFC lights and the pressure of three rounds. Harris debuts on short notice, and the jump from regional to the Octagon buries plenty of prospects.
Harris wins the physical battle: taller, longer, younger and fresher, with a finishing game built for an exposed neck. Hines wins the mileage battle: heavier hands, a chin that has never cracked, and the only real Octagon experience between them. The fight fits into one question. If the undefeated man imposes his size and pace, he finishes the way he always has. If the veteran survives the early storm and drags the newcomer into deep water and a firefight, experience and power flip the script.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
The thesis is: RJ Harris wins because he's the bigger man, longer (6-inch reach), younger (by 7 years) and fresher, with a finishing game built to exploit the physicals and an undefeated 5-0 run, while Hines returns at 34 off a full year out for a steroid suspension, cut and re-signed, carrying rust and the unknown of who he is without the PED.
The thesis is: RJ Harris wins because he's the bigger man, longer (6-inch reach), younger (by 7 years) and fresher, with a finishing game built to exploit the physicals and an undefeated 5-0 run, while Hines returns at 34 off a full year out for a steroid suspension, cut and re-signed, carrying rust and the unknown of who he is without the PED.
The path is Harris surviving the early exchanges, imposing his size and reach, and controlling all three rounds in the clinch and at range, banking the cards against an opponent who has never been finished or knocked out, with the likeliest outcome a decision. It breaks down for two reasons: the leap from regional to the UFC on a short-notice debut is a filter that sinks plenty of undefeated fighters, and Hines has never been finished or knocked out, owns the heaviest hands, and holds the only real Octagon experience between the two. This is heavyweight, so one shot is enough to flip it all.
Conviction
Conviction 4, no higher, because the thesis leans on four real dimensions (size, age, freshness and the undefeated run against Hines' rust and age), but it rests on thin data: Harris' record is 100% regional and he has never fought in the UFC, so projecting the talent to the Octagon level is an act of faith. The counterweight that holds the lean and doesn't invert it is the sum of raw physicals (6-inch reach, 7 years younger), competitive freshness against a man who spent a year off for doping at 34, and the fact that the market, even with Harris a short-notice debutant, opened him favorite. The edge here isn't following the line, it's the physicals and the freshness against age and rust. What blocks a higher conviction is honest: heavyweight is the land of the one-shot, and Hines has the power and the experience to land that shot.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
If the debut weighs on Harris and he locks up under the big lights, the whole physical favoritism turns to smoke and Hines' experience takes over.
- 02
If Hines lands the heavy hand in the early minutes, heavyweight settles it in one shot and the size thesis never happens.
- 03
If Hines shows up without rust and physically intact despite the year off, the underdog becomes a real favorite inside the cage.
- 04
Since Hines has never been finished or knocked out in eight fights, any submission prediction over him carries built-in risk and can turn into a decision.
Underdog Path
Hines doesn't need anything elaborate. He's the man with Octagon experience, the chin that has never failed, and the heavier hands. His script is to survive the newcomer's early surge, keep the composure he already showed across three rounds with Diniz, and force the firefight where his hands decide. If the debut weighs on Harris, if the adrenaline locks him up or drags him into a messy exchange, Hines punishes with the power or hauls him into deep water the undefeated man has never visited at this level.
Required Conditions
- Survive the early minutes without being taken to the clinch or the mat by Harris' size
- Force the fight to stand-up, where his heavy hands and tested chin become the edge
- Exploit the newcomer's debut nerves and inexperience under the big lights
- If the fight stretches, have the rust and age cost him less than the inexperience costs Harris
— Precedent: Hines himself at UFC 317: he took a short-notice debut against Diniz and survived three competitive rounds, 29-28 on the cards, proving he belongs at the level even in defeat. Add the classic heavyweight archetype, the undefeated regional prospect who looks unstoppable and freezes his first time in the Octagon against a seasoned veteran. It's a concrete path, not a guess.
Verdict
Winner
RJ Harris
Method
Decision
Most Likely
- 01
Winner
RJ Harris
Harris because he's bigger, longer, younger and fresher, with a finishing game built for his frame, against a veteran returning at 34 off a year out. The market already sees it, so it's a moderate stake, nothing heavy. Breaks if the debut weighs on him or if Hines' power lands early.
- 02
How it ends (either fighter)
Fight ends before the cards
Two genuine finishers at heavyweight, with finish rates of 80% and 86%. The one-shot variance and both men's ground games push toward an outcome before the decision. Honest caveat: Hines has never been finished, so this route leans on a knockout from either side or a Harris submission.
- 03
Winner (underdog)
Alvin Hines
The clean path to the upset and it has to be acknowledged: Hines is the only one with Octagon experience, his chin has never failed, and his hands are the heaviest. A short-notice debutant is a real risk. A conscious longshot, not the main read. Breaks if Harris' size and freshness dominate early.
Most Likely Outcome
RJ Harris, moderate stake
In a conviction-4 fight, the most defensible read is the winner on the size and the freshness, not the exact method. Moderate stake because the short-notice debut and Hines' power keep the upset risk alive the whole way. It's favoritism with respect for the underdog, not a fat bet.
Stats That Matter
6"
of reach edge for Harris (80" vs 74"), plus he's 7 years younger. The physicals are his
The bigger, longer, fresher man in a division of maximum variance
ZERO
UFC fights for Harris: he debuts on short notice against a man who has already gone three rounds in the Octagon
The night's biggest question mark lives right here
1
year on the shelf for Hines, suspended for Drostanolone and testosterone, cut and re-signed at 34
Rust, age, and the question of who he is without the PED
The Trap
Harris finishes easy
The 5-0 record with four finishes and the giant's reach tempt you to picture Harris walking through the veteran. The trap is ignoring two facts: those five wins all came at the regional level, against opponents with no UFC caliber, and Hines has NEVER been finished or knocked out in eight fights, having survived three hard rounds with a UFC heavyweight. Betting Harris by quick finish runs against the very nature of his opponent. Heavyweight rewards the clean shot and the experience as much as it rewards raw talent, and the short-notice debut is a risk the favoritism hides.
The 5-0 record with four finishes and the giant's reach tempt you to picture Harris walking through the veteran. The trap is ignoring two facts: those five wins all came at the regional level, against opponents with no UFC caliber, and Hines has NEVER been finished or knocked out in eight fights, having survived three hard rounds with a UFC heavyweight. Betting Harris by quick finish runs against the very nature of his opponent. Heavyweight rewards the clean shot and the experience as much as it rewards raw talent, and the short-notice debut is a risk the favoritism hides.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
RJ "The Hammer" Harris vs Alvin "Goozie" Hines | UFC Fight Night: du Plessis vs Usman | July 18, 2026 | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA
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