July 11, 2026 · T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Garbrandt
15-7-0
UnrankedUhrichsville, Ohio, USA | 35 years old
Yañez
17-6-1
UnrankedHouston, Texas, USA | 32 years old
Power vs. Speed
Garbrandt still carries the hand that made history at 135. Yañez brings faster hands, more than double the volume, and nearly five inches of reach — all aimed at a chin that has already failed four times.
O QUEIXO QUE RACHA PRIMEIRO
Two Hunters, One Chin Short
This is a pure firefight between two knockout hunters who each own 11 KO wins. But it isn't decided by who hits harder — it's decided by which chin cracks first. And the tape is clear: Garbrandt's is the more fragile one. Four career knockout losses, two to TJ Dillashaw, one to Pedro Munhoz, one to Kai Kara-France, and at 35 that kind of damage doesn't heal. Across from him stands a younger man with faster hands, more than double the output (5.96 significant strikes per minute to Garbrandt's 2.79) and nearly five inches of reach. Yañez gets there first and lands more often. The wrinkle that stops the easy stamp is that Yañez's chin has cracked too. Rob Font and Jonathan Martinez both stopped him in 2023, and the Texan absorbs a ton, 5.24 per minute. Garbrandt still owns one of the heaviest hands the bantamweight division has ever seen, the right hand that flatlined Assuncao, the one that dismantled Almeida. If the former champ lands clean, Yañez has shown he'll go down. So the read is this: Yañez is the better, faster, more complete fighter, and he tends to pile up volume until the more worn chin breaks. But he has to respect that any real exchange is a coin-flip, and the shot he doesn't see is the one that flips the night.
This is a pure firefight between two knockout hunters who each own 11 KO wins. But it isn't decided by who hits harder — it's decided by which chin cracks first. And the tape is clear: Garbrandt's is the more fragile one. Four career knockout losses, two to TJ Dillashaw, one to Pedro Munhoz, one to Kai Kara-France, and at 35 that kind of damage doesn't heal. Across from him stands a younger man with faster hands, more than double the output (5.96 significant strikes per minute to Garbrandt's 2.79) and nearly five inches of reach. Yañez gets there first and lands more often. The wrinkle that stops the easy stamp is that Yañez's chin has cracked too. Rob Font and Jonathan Martinez both stopped him in 2023, and the Texan absorbs a ton, 5.24 per minute. Garbrandt still owns one of the heaviest hands the bantamweight division has ever seen, the right hand that flatlined Assuncao, the one that dismantled Almeida. If the former champ lands clean, Yañez has shown he'll go down. So the read is this: Yañez is the better, faster, more complete fighter, and he tends to pile up volume until the more worn chin breaks. But he has to respect that any real exchange is a coin-flip, and the shot he doesn't see is the one that flips the night.
Tale of the Tape
Garbrandt is three years older and carries a whole career of elite wars in the body
Curiously, Garbrandt is an inch taller
But Yañez has nearly five inches of reach on him. He's the one who gets there first
Garbrandt's chin has already failed twice as often
Current Form
Cody Garbrandt
UFC 326. Beat unranked Xiao Long on the cards, but the Chinese fighter lost two points in round 3 for repeated groin strikes. A more bureaucratic than convincing win over an out-of-the-rankings name.
Unanimous DecisionUFC Atlanta. Returning after 14 months out, he was outworked by Raoni Barcelos on the cards, 29-28 across all three. He was outread and outpaced, never able to impose the power.
Unanimous DecisionUFC 300, T-Mobile Arena. Faced former champ Deiveson Figueiredo and was submitted by rear-naked choke in round 2. A clear step up in level from the rest of his recent record, and he couldn't hold up.
Submission (RNC)UFC 296. Flatlined Brian Kelleher with a counter right at 3:42 of round 1. The reminder that Garbrandt's one-shot power is still real and still lethal when he lands clean.
KO/TKO R1UFC 285. Beat Trevin Jones on the cards after more than a year off. Back in the win column, but against a low-tier opponent and with none of the finishing shine.
Unanimous DecisionThis is the portrait of a former champ in a controlled slide. Garbrandt is 3-2 in his last five, but the numbers lie. His most recent win, over Xiao Long in March, came with the opponent losing two points in round 3 for repeated groin strikes — and it was still a close decision over an unranked man. Before that, he lost clearly to Barcelos and was submitted by Figueiredo. The power is still there, he flatlined Kelleher in 2023 with a counter right, but at 35 and with four knockout losses on the record, he's a man whose chin is the central question of any fight. Team Alpha Male, heavy hands, a gas tank running dry.
Adrian Yañez
Majority draw over five even rounds, but 14 of 15 media outlets scored it for Yañez. In practice, a robbed win. Cleaner boxing and more volume against a former top-15 name.
Majority DrawSplit-decision loss to the undefeated Daniel Marcos, a fight that could have gone either way. Yañez got the better of many stand-up exchanges, but the cards went narrowly to the Peruvian.
Split DecisionDismantled Vinicius Salvador with a right hand into ground-and-pound at 2:47 of round 1. Proof that the power and the knockout timing came back after the 2023 stumble.
KO/TKO R1UFC 294. Stopped by Jonathan Martinez's strikes in round 2 after accumulated damage to the legs and body. A second straight knockout loss and the low point of his career.
KO/TKO R2Common opponent with Garbrandt. Knocked out by Rob Font in round 1, right hand into ground-and-pound at 2:57. Font also beat Garbrandt, but on the cards, across five rounds.
KO/TKO R1On paper, Yañez's recent record is alarming: one win in his last five, with two knockout losses in 2023 to Font and Jonathan Martinez. But the results hide the growth. The March draw with Ricky Simon was a robbery, 14 of 15 media outlets scored the fight for Yañez. The Marcos loss was a split, against an undefeated man. And since the 2023 knockouts he hasn't been stopped again. He's the faster, higher-volume, younger fighter, and the market sees it — it opened him a heavy favorite. The caveat lives in the chin, which has cracked too, and in Garbrandt's power, which is on another level.
Level of Competition
The common opponent is Rob Font, and it cuts both ways. Both men lost to Font, but in opposite fashion: Garbrandt survived all five rounds and lost on the cards in 2021, while Yañez was knocked out in under three minutes in 2023. On one hand, that shows Garbrandt's durability held where Yañez's didn't. On the other, it proves Yañez can be stopped early by a puncher, which is exactly Garbrandt's one clear path. Beyond Font, the resume gap is glaring: Garbrandt has faced champions (Cruz, Dillashaw twice, Figueiredo, Munhoz), while Yañez has never fought a top-5 opponent. The caveat is that Garbrandt's elite days are years behind him, and his recent competition is soft (Long, Barcelos, Jones), while Yañez has been fighting live bodies (Font, Martinez, Marcos, Simon).
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes per Minute
Yañez pours on more than double the volume. Garbrandt bets on fewer shots, but with more weight on each one
Striking Accuracy (%)
Even on accuracy, but Yañez lands far more overall on volume and reach
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Yañez absorbs far more. In a firefight, it's his chin or Garbrandt's that shows up first
Striking Defense (%)
Almost identical defense. This is about who imposes their pace, not who slips better
Takedowns per 15 Min
Neither man wants the mat. This is kickboxing
Takedown Accuracy (%)
Takedown Defense (%)
High numbers, but irrelevant: neither man shoots for takedowns
Submissions per 15 Min
Zero to zero. It's a 100% stand-up fight, decided by the punch, not the mat
Garbrandt leads in 5 categories · Yañez leads in 2
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Two pure knockout hunters, with 11 KO wins apiece. Garbrandt is 11 KO, 4 decisions and zero submissions in 15 wins — almost no ground game, all the damage lives in the hands. Yañez is a touch more varied, 11 KO, 4 decisions and 2 submissions in 17, with 8 first-round finishes, but he's still a hunter. Neither man wins by grappling. For the method the message is direct: a knockout is fully on the table for both sides, and whoever lands clean first tends to end the night.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
The loss profiles are the whole fight. Garbrandt's 7 defeats came by knockout (4, to Dillashaw twice, Munhoz and Kara-France), submission (1, Figueiredo) and decision (2, Barcelos and Font). His central vulnerability is the chin, four stoppages by strikes, and at 35 that doesn't recover. Yañez has a smaller sample, just 6 losses, and only 2 by knockout (Font and Martinez, both in 2023), with 4 decisions — a small sample that calls for caution. What matters is that both of his knockout losses are over two years old and he hasn't been stopped since (Salvador, Marcos, Simon). Practical read: Garbrandt is the more likely to be finished, but Yañez is not immune, and one clean Garbrandt bomb can rerun the 2023 script.
Skills Profile
Garbrandt
vs
Yañez
Striking em Distância
+2 Yañez
Yañez controls range with fast hands, volume and nearly five inches of reach. It's the ground where he wins the fight.
Poder de Nocaute
+1 Garbrandt
Both own 11 knockouts, but Garbrandt's one-shot right (Assuncao, Almeida) is the heaviest hand in the fight. A thin edge for the former champ.
Velocidade de Mãos
+2 Yañez
Yañez is clearly faster with his hands and smoother in combination. Garbrandt relies on isolated shots.
Durabilidade e Queixo
+2 Yañez
Both have been knocked out, but Garbrandt's chin is the more worn: four KO losses to two, and at 35 it doesn't get better.
Cardio e Ritmo
+1 Yañez
Over three rounds, Yañez keeps a higher, steadier pace. Garbrandt went five with Font once, but he tires faster now.
Experiência de Elite
+2 Garbrandt
Garbrandt has shared the cage with champions (Cruz, Dillashaw, Figueiredo). Yañez has never fought a top-5 man. Big-fight experience leans to the former champ.
Yañez wins the categories that usually decide a three-round kickboxing match: range, hand speed, reach, and the more reliable chin. Garbrandt's edges are the two that can flip a fight in a single second — raw one-shot power, and the baggage of having been in world-level wars. The question is whether the former champ lands the equalizer before Yañez's speed and volume break down the more fragile chin.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
The thesis is: Adrian Yañez wins because he's the younger, faster, sharper fighter, with a huge volume edge (5.96 to 2.79 strikes per minute) and nearly five inches of reach, all aimed at the more compromised chin in the fight, Garbrandt's, which has been knocked out four times and arrives at 35. The two knockouts Yañez suffered are over two years old and he hasn't been stopped since.
The thesis is: Adrian Yañez wins because he's the younger, faster, sharper fighter, with a huge volume edge (5.96 to 2.79 strikes per minute) and nearly five inches of reach, all aimed at the more compromised chin in the fight, Garbrandt's, which has been knocked out four times and arrives at 35. The two knockouts Yañez suffered are over two years old and he hasn't been stopped since.
The path is Yañez managing range, pot-shotting with speed, avoiding Garbrandt's one big bomb, and either breaking the chin down on accumulation (TKO) or banking the rounds. It breaks down if Garbrandt lands his division-level one-shot power early, which is greater than Font's or Martinez's, the two men who already stopped Yañez. That's a real, precedented puncher's chance, not a footnote.
Conviction
Conviction 6, no higher, because although the thesis is specific and built on four dimensions (speed, volume, reach, age and the more fragile chin), this is a firefight between two punchers in which Garbrandt retains one of the scariest one-shot powers the division has ever seen, and Yañez has been stopped twice. The edge is real and the market agrees on the side (Yañez ), but Garbrandt's puncher's chance is live and precedented (Font and Martinez both stopped Yañez), and both chins are under suspicion, which caps how defensible any lean can be. This isn't a market read: the books agree on the winner but overprice it. My edge read is that Yañez wins clearly more often than not, but the honest upset number (27%) sits above the ~24% implied by, so the value is in the underdog KO prop and against laying the steep favorite. GATE note: neither man is coming off a recent knockout loss (Garbrandt's last was Kara-France in 2021, Yañez's were in 2023), so a finishing pick is permitted, and with Garbrandt's worn chin plus Yañez's volume, KO/TKO is the single most likely method.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
If Garbrandt lands the clean right in the first two rounds, Yañez's chin has cracked before (Font, Martinez) and the fight ends.
- 02
If Yañez abandons range and accepts the close-range trade, he throws away his speed and reach edge and gives Garbrandt's power its best chance.
- 03
If Garbrandt's world-level war experience shows up as composure and he weathers the early volume, three rounds may not be enough for Yañez to break him, and the decision goes either way.
- 04
If post caution makes Yañez tentative and Garbrandt walks him down, the volume gap narrows.
Underdog Path
Garbrandt doesn't need an elaborate plan, he needs one right hand. He forces the exchange up close, where the power carries the most weight, and lands the rear hand on the chin Font and Martinez already proved is crackable. It's the script of every big win in his career: one shot that flatlines anyone. If he lands clean in the first two rounds, before his own tank and his own chin become the problem, the favorite's crowd goes silent and the cashes.
Required Conditions
- Close the distance and force the close-range firefight, erasing the five inches of reach and Yañez's speed
- Land the clean right early, in the first two rounds, before Yañez's volume dictates the tempo
- Don't become a stationary target: if he stays outside eating the jab and the volume, he loses rounds and risks being the one stopped
- Exploit the precedent: Yañez's chin cracked in 2023, and Garbrandt's power is greater than the men who did it
— Precedent: Rob Font (April 2023) and Jonathan Martinez (October 2023) both knocked Yañez out, and Garbrandt hits harder than either. The parallel is even more direct because Font is the common opponent: he stopped Yañez in round 1 but only beat Garbrandt on the cards, across five rounds. The Texan's chin has been found by less power than the former champ carries.
Verdict
Winner
Adrian Yañez
Method
KO/TKO
Most Likely
- 01
Winner
Adrian Yañez
Yañez because he's the faster, younger, higher-volume striker, aimed at the more fragile chin in the fight. But there's no value left: it's a confidence pick, not a value one. Breaks if Garbrandt's one-shot power lands clean early.
- 02
Method (favorite)
Yañez by KO/TKO
The most efficient way to back the read: instead of laying on the moneyline, take the same scenario (Yañez's volume breaks Garbrandt's worn chin) at a plus price. The former champ's chin has failed four times. Approximate prop line, not confirmed.
- 03
Method (underdog)
Garbrandt by KO/TKO
The cleanest path to the upset, and it has to be acknowledged: Yañez's chin cracked in 2023 (Font, Martinez) and Garbrandt hits harder than both. A conscious longshot, not the main read. Approximate line. Breaks if Yañez controls range and refuses the close-range trade.
Most Likely Outcome
Yañez by KO/TKO, moderate stake
Laying on the moneyline has no value. The same thesis (Yañez piles up volume and breaks Garbrandt's worn chin) at a plus price via the KO prop is the efficient way to back the favorite. Moderate stake because Garbrandt's power keeps the upset risk alive the whole way.
Stats That Matter
4
Garbrandt career knockout losses (Dillashaw x2, Munhoz, Kara-France). At 35, the chin doesn't come back
The central vulnerability of the fight
5.96
Yañez significant strikes per minute, to Garbrandt's 2.79. More than double the volume
Plus nearly five inches of reach — he gets there and lands first
2
Yañez knockout losses (Font and Martinez, both in 2023). His chin has cracked too
Why Garbrandt's power keeps the upset alive
The Trap
Laying on Yañez as easy money
The public is heavy on Yañez, favorite, treating this as a quiet night against a worn 35-year-old former champ. The trap is ignoring two things. First: Garbrandt still owns one of the heaviest hands the bantamweight division has produced, and he only needs to land one. Second: Yañez's chin isn't granite — Font and Martinez already stopped him in 2023, and Garbrandt hits harder than both. Laying leaves no margin for error in a fight where any exchange is a coin-flip on the chin. Yañez is the right pick, but the price isn't.
The public is heavy on Yañez, favorite, treating this as a quiet night against a worn 35-year-old former champ. The trap is ignoring two things. First: Garbrandt still owns one of the heaviest hands the bantamweight division has produced, and he only needs to land one. Second: Yañez's chin isn't granite — Font and Martinez already stopped him in 2023, and Garbrandt hits harder than both. Laying leaves no margin for error in a fight where any exchange is a coin-flip on the chin. Yañez is the right pick, but the price isn't.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Cody "No Love" Garbrandt vs Adrian Yañez | UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2 | July 11, 2026 | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
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