July 18, 2026 · Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA
Coria
12-3-0
UnrankedTexas, USA | 27 years old
Nicoll
8-3-0
UnrankedSolomon Islands / Australia | 31 years old
A Rise Against the Ropes
Coria is 2-0 in the UFC and stopped Alessandro Costa. That same Costa knocked out Nicoll in April. The underdog is fighting to keep his job.
O PONTO QUE DECIDE
The Litmus Test Named Alessandro Costa
The read on this fight fits into one name: Alessandro Costa. Coria made his UFC debut against him and stopped him with strikes in round 3. Months later, that same Costa stepped into the Octagon and knocked out Stewart Nicoll in round 2. MMA isn't transitive math — one result doesn't guarantee the other — but when two newcomers share a recent opponent and the litmus test points the same way as everything else in the analysis, it stops being a coincidence and becomes a signal. And everything else points the same way. Coria is the more complete package: BJJ purple belt, heavy hands, 2-0 in the UFC, taller, longer and four years younger. Nicoll arrives 0-3 in the promotion, finished inside the distance in two of those three fights, absorbing nearly six significant strikes per minute and defending just 29% of takedowns. He's underdog fighting to keep his job. The only real question isn't who wins, it's how. Nicoll has a jiu-jitsu base and four career knockouts, so he carries the eternal underdog chance — one clean shot or a grip on the mat. But if the fight follows the likely script, Coria finds the chin or the takedown and ends it inside the distance. He's the most solid favorite on the undercard.
The read on this fight fits into one name: Alessandro Costa. Coria made his UFC debut against him and stopped him with strikes in round 3. Months later, that same Costa stepped into the Octagon and knocked out Stewart Nicoll in round 2. MMA isn't transitive math — one result doesn't guarantee the other — but when two newcomers share a recent opponent and the litmus test points the same way as everything else in the analysis, it stops being a coincidence and becomes a signal. And everything else points the same way. Coria is the more complete package: BJJ purple belt, heavy hands, 2-0 in the UFC, taller, longer and four years younger. Nicoll arrives 0-3 in the promotion, finished inside the distance in two of those three fights, absorbing nearly six significant strikes per minute and defending just 29% of takedowns. He's underdog fighting to keep his job. The only real question isn't who wins, it's how. Nicoll has a jiu-jitsu base and four career knockouts, so he carries the eternal underdog chance — one clean shot or a grip on the mat. But if the fight follows the likely script, Coria finds the chin or the takedown and ends it inside the distance. He's the most solid favorite on the undercard.
Tale of the Tape
Coria is 4 years younger and fresher in career mileage
Coria has a 3-inch height edge
Coria carries the reach edge, he's the bigger man
The contrast that defines the fight: one on the rise, the other on the ropes
Current Form
Alden Coria
UFC Houston. Controlled Gurule from bell to bell, landed 96 significant strikes and dictated the pace. Unanimous decision, 30-27 on all three cards. Showed he can win the 15 minutes, not just hunt the finish.
Unanimous DecisionNoche UFC. Octagon debut against Brazilian veteran Alessandro Costa. He weathered it, grew into the fight and stopped Costa with strikes in round 3. The detail that matters here: that same Costa knocked out Nicoll months later.
TKO R3Regional circuit. Second-round TKO over German Orpineda Ponce. Another early stoppage that helped put his name on the UFC's radar.
TKO R2First-round No Contest against Paris Moran. The one blip in a run of wins, but not a loss on the ledger.
No Contest R1Regional circuit. Second-round TKO over Chris Ocon. Part of the surge that closed out at 5-0 with one no contest before the UFC came calling.
TKO R2Coria reached the UFC near 30 and proved fast that he belongs. He stopped Alessandro Costa with strikes in the third round of his debut at Noche UFC, then ran through Luis Gurule on the cards in his home state of Texas, 30-27 across all three scorecards. He's a BJJ purple belt with pop in his hands and a steady pace, the kind of complete profile you rarely see this deep on a card. The honest caveat is sample size: only two UFC fights, no real top-15 test yet. But everything they've put in front of him has ended in a win.
Stewart Nicoll
Stopped by Alessandro Costa with strikes in round 2. Third straight UFC loss and the second time Nicoll was finished inside the distance. The same Costa that Coria had already knocked out.
TKO R2Dropped a three-round unanimous decision to Lucas Rocha. Couldn't impose the ground game and fell behind on the cards. The fight exposed how hard it is for him to win a striking match.
Unanimous DecisionUFC 305. Octagon debut and a quick submission loss: rear-naked choke by Jesus Aguilar at 2:39 of round one. A rough start in the world's biggest promotion.
Sub R1First-round TKO over Issei Kitano. One of the early stoppages that carried his regional resume and opened the UFC door.
TKO R1First-round TKO over Dansheel Moodley. Another example of the early stopping power Nicoll carries when he lands clean.
TKO R1Nicoll's backstory is one of survival, born in the Solomon Islands and forged in jiu-jitsu before reaching the Octagon with a strong regional resume and an XFC title. Inside the UFC, though, reality has been brutal: 0-3, three straight losses, and none of them close. He was submitted by a rear-naked choke to Aguilar in round one, dropped a decision to Lucas Rocha, and most recently ate a knockout from Alessandro Costa in April. He's underdog fighting with his job on the line. His path runs through what got him here: the ground game and hands that have flattened people early on the regional scene.
Level of Competition
Both are recent newcomers with no top-15 wins, so the level of opposition looks similar on paper. The difference is in the results. Coria is 2-0 in the UFC, with a knockout of Alessandro Costa and a dominant decision over Gurule. Nicoll is 0-3, submitted by Aguilar, outpointed by Rocha and knocked out by Costa. And that's where the golden data point lives: both men faced the same Alessandro Costa. Coria stopped Costa in round 3, Costa stopped Nicoll in round 2. That direct litmus test says a lot about the gap in tier between these two at this stage of their careers.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes por Minuto
Coria has more volume and far more precision at range
Precisão de Strikes (%)
Coria lands cleaner, Nicoll misses more and exposes himself
Strikes Absorvidos/Min
The most glaring number in the fight. Nicoll gets hit too much, Coria almost half as often
Defesa de Strikes (%)
70% to 50%. Coria is much harder to hit clean
Takedowns por 15 Min
Precisão de Takedown (%)
Small UFC sample for both, but Coria converts better
Defesa de Takedown (%)
Nicoll's leakiest front. 71% to 29% takedown defense
Submissões por 15 Min
Neither man has submitted anyone in the UFC yet, but both have a ground game from the regional scene
Coria leads in 7 categories · Nicoll leads in 0
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Both men are finishers, but Coria is the more balanced one. He has 5 knockouts, 4 submissions and 3 decisions in 12 wins, the picture of a fighter who closes any way, including on the cards, as he did against Gurule. Nicoll has 4 knockouts, 3 submissions and just 1 decision in 8 wins, and five of those wins came in round one. His profile is early finish or nothing, which fits the problem: in the UFC, when the knockout didn't come early, he had no plan B. It matters for the method: Coria can build a fight, Nicoll needs to end it fast.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
The loss profiles reinforce the read, with the caveat that both samples are small (3 losses each). Coria has never been knocked out in 15 fights: he goes down by decision (2) or submission (1, a rear-naked choke in 2022). His chin has never been a problem, and his only risk area is the mat against a dangerous grappler. Nicoll is the opposite and that's the worry: of his 3 losses, 1 came by knockout (Costa), 1 by submission (Aguilar) and 1 by decision (Rocha). In other words, he's already lost every way possible, and two of them came inside the distance. A fighter who can be stopped on the ground and on the feet, against a Coria who threatens on both, is a bad combination for the Australian.
Skills Profile
Coria
vs
Nicoll
Striking em Distância
+3 Coria
Coria is taller, longer, more accurate (45% to 39%) and absorbs far less (2.40 to 5.84 per minute). At range, it's his to dominate.
Poder de Nocaute
Even
Both men have real power. Nicoll has 4 knockouts and early stopping ability, Coria has 5 and cleaner hands. It's the most even front, and the underdog's live chance.
Grappling e Wrestling
+2 Coria
Coria is a purple belt with 4 submissions and solid takedown defense (71%). Nicoll has dangerous jiu-jitsu but defends only 29% of takedowns in the UFC. Edge to the Texan, but it's the front where the underdog can surprise.
Defesa de Striking
+3 Coria
This is where the gap shows. Coria has never been knocked out in 15 fights. Nicoll just ate a KO from Costa, absorbs nearly six strikes per minute and defends only 50% of striking.
Cardio e Ritmo
+2 Coria
Coria showed three-round rhythm against Gurule, controlling the tempo. Nicoll, when he doesn't finish early, tends to fall behind, as in the decision loss to Rocha.
Momentum e Confiança
+3 Coria
2-0 in the UFC against 0-3. Coria arrives on the rise and full of confidence. Nicoll is on a three-fight skid, two by finish, fighting to keep his job.
Coria wins on nearly every front: range, defense, cardio, momentum and physicals. The only door open for Nicoll is knockout power, even, and jiu-jitsu, if he can drag the fight to the mat. The question isn't who has more tools, it's Coria. The question is whether Nicoll can land one clean shot or catch a surprise grip before the fight becomes a game he can't win.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
The thesis is: Alden Coria wins because he's the more complete and fresher fighter of the two, and because Nicoll arrives stuck on every front. Coria is a BJJ purple belt with heavy hands, 2-0 in the UFC, coming off a knockout of Alessandro Costa and a dominant decision over Gurule. Nicoll is 0-3 in the UFC, finished inside the distance in two of those three fights, absorbing nearly six significant strikes per minute with only 50% defense and 29% takedown defense. Add the direct Costa parallel — the man who knocked out Nicoll was himself knocked out by Coria — and the physical edge for the Texan, taller, longer and four years younger. The likeliest path is Coria pressuring, finding Nicoll's freshly-rattled chin or dragging the fight to the mat against a leaky takedown defense, and finishing inside the distance. It doesn't fall apart easily, but Nicoll's power and jiu-jitsu keep the one-shot or surprise-grip route alive.
The thesis is: Alden Coria wins because he's the more complete and fresher fighter of the two, and because Nicoll arrives stuck on every front. Coria is a BJJ purple belt with heavy hands, 2-0 in the UFC, coming off a knockout of Alessandro Costa and a dominant decision over Gurule. Nicoll is 0-3 in the UFC, finished inside the distance in two of those three fights, absorbing nearly six significant strikes per minute with only 50% defense and 29% takedown defense. Add the direct Costa parallel — the man who knocked out Nicoll was himself knocked out by Coria — and the physical edge for the Texan, taller, longer and four years younger. The likeliest path is Coria pressuring, finding Nicoll's freshly-rattled chin or dragging the fight to the mat against a leaky takedown defense, and finishing inside the distance. It doesn't fall apart easily, but Nicoll's power and jiu-jitsu keep the one-shot or surprise-grip route alive.
Conviction
Conviction 6, no higher, because the thesis has multiple concrete layers but the sample is thin on both sides. What supports the read goes beyond stats and odds: there's the direct Costa parallel (Coria stopped the man who stopped Nicoll), Nicoll's loss profile (finished inside the distance in two of three UFC fights, absorbing nearly six strikes per minute), the clear physical edge and the opposite momentum, 2-0 versus 0-3. That's genuinely multi-dimensional, not just following the line. What keeps conviction below 7 or 8 is honesty about the sample: Coria has only two UFC fights and has never been taken down by a black-belt grappler, and Nicoll carries knockout power and legit jiu-jitsu, the exact combo that keeps the underdog path open. The edge doesn't come from the market, which already nailed it. It comes from the Costa litmus test, Nicoll's defensive profile and the gap in physical caliber and career trajectory.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
If Nicoll lands one of his heavy hands in round one, the 0-3 record and the whole favoritism read turn to dust, because an underdog with power always keeps that scenario alive.
- 02
If Nicoll can drag the fight to the mat and use his jiu-jitsu base, Coria — who has been submitted by a rear-naked choke before — steps into the one area where he's vulnerable.
- 03
Coria's UFC sample is just two fights and he hasn't faced a real grappler who forces scrambles, so there may be holes we haven't seen yet.
- 04
If Coria underestimates the stuck, desperate underdog and fights loose, Nicoll is exactly the kind of dangerous opponent who punishes a distracted favorite.
Underdog Path
Nicoll won't win on the cards and he knows it. His path is violent and early: land one of the heavy hands that have flattened people in round one, or drag Coria to the mat in a scramble and lock up a submission, the game that carried him to the UFC. Coria has only been submitted once in his life, a rear-naked choke back in 2022, so the door exists even if it's narrow. If Nicoll turns this into a close-range knife fight in the opening minutes, before he falls behind, that's his real chance.
Required Conditions
- Land clean early with the heavy hand, before the fight becomes a pace-and-volume game that favors Coria
- Get the fight to the mat and exploit Coria's leaky takedown defense (just 71% in the UFC) to chase a submission
- Don't stand there eating shots at range, where 5.84 strikes absorbed per minute becomes fatal
- Impose his own game in the first five minutes, because the longer this lasts, the more Coria takes over
— Precedent: Nicoll himself on the regional scene: four career knockouts, several in round one, plus submissions. He's proven he has early stopping power and a ground game to surprise. The problem is that inside the UFC, against better opposition, that plan has failed three times in a row. The route exists, but the recent history works against it.
Verdict
Winner
Alden Coria
Method
KO/TKO
Most Likely
- 01
Método
Coria wins inside the distance (ITD)
Nicoll has been finished inside the distance in two of his three UFC fights, absorbs nearly six strikes per minute and defends just 29% of takedowns. Coria has the hands and the ground game to exploit all of it. A finish is likelier than a decision. Breaks if Nicoll lands early or Coria decides to play it safe on the cards.
- 02
Método específico
Coria by KO/TKO
Nicoll just ate a knockout from Costa and has 50% striking defense. Coria is the sharper, heavier-handed man. The specific method pays better than the expensive moneyline. Breaks if the win comes by ground control and submission instead of strikes.
- 03
Método (azarão)
Nicoll by submission
It's the cleanest route to the upset and it has to be acknowledged: Nicoll has a jiu-jitsu base and Coria has been submitted by a rear-naked choke before, back in 2022. A conscious longshot, not the main read. Breaks if the fight stays standing, where Coria dominates.
Most Likely Outcome
Coria wins inside the distance, moderate stake
The moneyline has no value. The real value read is the method: against a Nicoll who absorbs too much, defends the takedown poorly and has already been finished twice in the UFC, Coria winning inside the distance is the likeliest scenario and pays better than betting the expensive favorite outright.
Stats That Matter
0-3
is Nicoll's UFC record. Three straight losses, finished inside the distance in two of them
A underdog fighting to keep his roster spot
5.84
significant strikes Nicoll absorbs per minute in the UFC, with 50% defense and just 29% takedown defense
Every one of Coria's entry points is wide open
ZERO
times Coria has been knocked out in 15 pro fights. His chin has never been a problem
He goes down by submission (once) or decision, never by strikes
The Trap
Coria is free money
The market has turned Coria into heavy chalk,, and it's tempting to treat it as an automatic win. The trap is twofold. First: laying is expensive, and Coria's UFC sample is just two fights — he hasn't been tested by a black-belt grappler who forces scrambles. Second: Nicoll isn't a punching bag. He has four career knockouts and a solid jiu-jitsu base, the kind of underdog who needs one shot or one grip to flip everything. Coria's favoritism is real and earned, but anyone walking in thinking this can't go wrong is ignoring Nicoll's hands and his ground game.
The market has turned Coria into heavy chalk,, and it's tempting to treat it as an automatic win. The trap is twofold. First: laying is expensive, and Coria's UFC sample is just two fights — he hasn't been tested by a black-belt grappler who forces scrambles. Second: Nicoll isn't a punching bag. He has four career knockouts and a solid jiu-jitsu base, the kind of underdog who needs one shot or one grip to flip everything. Coria's favoritism is real and earned, but anyone walking in thinking this can't go wrong is ignoring Nicoll's hands and his ground game.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Alden "Cobra" Coria vs Stewart "Kakamora" Nicoll | UFC Fight Night: du Plessis vs Usman | July 18, 2026 | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA
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