August 1, 2026 · Belgrade Arena, Belgrade, Serbia
Błachowicz
29-11-2
#4 Light HeavyweightCieszyn, Poland | 43 years old
Stirling
10-0-0
#15 Light HeavyweightUpper Hutt, New Zealand | 28 years old
The Resume Against the Calendar
A 43-year-old former champion who hasn't won since 2022 against a 28-year-old unbeaten prospect who has never fought a ranked man. Fifteen minutes to settle which side time is on.
O PARADOXO
He Didn't Train For This Man
Błachowicz spent his entire camp preparing for Bogdan Guskov. It was the rematch of December's majority draw, the fight he had already rebooked once. Then on July 17, fifteen days out, the UFC pulled Guskov off the card and shipped him to Abu Dhabi to face Ankalaev, handing the Pole a completely different problem: a 6-foot-4 New Zealander who throws 6.24 significant strikes per minute and wants every second of the fifteen minutes. Those are opposite game plans, and he has two weeks to swap one for the other. His body isn't built to improvise right now either. In April, Błachowicz tore his meniscus in sparring and fell off UFC 328. He came back two months later to rebook, at 43, on a freshly healed knee, against a fighter whose whole job is punishing the lead leg and forcing movement from the first minute to the last. In March 2025, Carlos Ulberg ran a slower version of this in London and swept the cards 29-28 in a fight neither man wanted to open up in. Stirling throws close to double what Ulberg threw that night. On the other side, the New Zealander accepted on a little over two weeks' notice, six weeks after a hard night with Ion Cutelaba. Two weeks doesn't build a camp to study a former champion, and the weight has to come off inside that same window. The short notice taxes both men, each in his own way. What he has never done is share a cage with a top-15 name.
Błachowicz spent his entire camp preparing for Bogdan Guskov. It was the rematch of December's majority draw, the fight he had already rebooked once. Then on July 17, fifteen days out, the UFC pulled Guskov off the card and shipped him to Abu Dhabi to face Ankalaev, handing the Pole a completely different problem: a 6-foot-4 New Zealander who throws 6.24 significant strikes per minute and wants every second of the fifteen minutes. Those are opposite game plans, and he has two weeks to swap one for the other. His body isn't built to improvise right now either. In April, Błachowicz tore his meniscus in sparring and fell off UFC 328. He came back two months later to rebook, at 43, on a freshly healed knee, against a fighter whose whole job is punishing the lead leg and forcing movement from the first minute to the last. In March 2025, Carlos Ulberg ran a slower version of this in London and swept the cards 29-28 in a fight neither man wanted to open up in. Stirling throws close to double what Ulberg threw that night. On the other side, the New Zealander accepted on a little over two weeks' notice, six weeks after a hard night with Ion Cutelaba. Two weeks doesn't build a camp to study a former champion, and the weight has to come off inside that same window. The short notice taxes both men, each in his own way. What he has never done is share a cage with a top-15 name.
Truth A
Nobody on this card has a resume close to Błachowicz's. He beat Israel Adesanya, Dominick Reyes, Luke Rockhold, Jacaré Souza and Corey Anderson, held the light heavyweight belt, and has been stopped by strikes twice in 42 pro fights, the last one back in 2019. This is not an old man waiting to get run over.
Truth B
But a resume is a statement about the past. Błachowicz hasn't had his hand raised since May 2022, and that win came from Rakić's knee giving out on its own, not from anything the Pole landed. In December, at 42, Guskov nearly finished him in round two. And this is three rounds, not five: there is no championship round for the veteran to claw it back.
Tale of the Tape
Fifteen years apart, and that's the line that runs this fight
Just one inch separates them: this is not a fight decided by reach
Stirling's gym is the champion's gym: Carlos Ulberg beat Błachowicz in London
Twenty-two Octagon fights against five
Current Form
Jan Błachowicz
UFC 323. Guskov nearly starched him with an ugly knockdown in round two, and the Pole flipped the night by dropping the Uzbek in the closing seconds of round three. One card read 29-28 Błachowicz, the other two came back 28-28.
Majority DrawUFC London. First fight back after nearly two years out and two shoulder surgeries. A cagey, low-volume affair where neither man let go, and Ulberg, ranked No. 6 that night, took all three cards 29-28. He wouldn't win the belt until UFC 327, a little over a year later.
Unanimous DecisionUFC 291. Pereira's light heavyweight debut: he moved up unranked at 205, months after losing the middleweight belt to Adesanya. Razor close, split cards, and Błachowicz went public afterward saying he didn't agree with the scoring.
Split DecisionUFC 282, five rounds for the vacant belt. Split draw, and nobody walked out with the title. It remains the last time Błachowicz fought for a championship.
Split DrawStill the last win of his career. Rakić was ranked third at the time and his knee gave out on its own at 1:11 of round three. Błachowicz didn't need to land a shot to get the W.
TKO R3Four fights without a win: a majority draw with Guskov in December, a loss to Ulberg, a loss to Pereira, a draw with Ankalaev. All of them razor close, none of them a beating, and that's exactly who he is now: nobody runs him over, but he doesn't win anymore either. The last victory came in May 2022, and it came from Rakić's knee buckling in round three rather than anything Błachowicz threw. Add two shoulder surgeries, in December 2023 and March 2024, nearly two years on the shelf, and the meniscus he tore in sparring in April 2026 that knocked him off UFC 328. He has said he wants to finish his career on his own terms. At 43, the chin is still the toughest in the division. The clock isn't.
Navajo Stirling
UFC Vegas 119. Had a real scare in round one when Cutelaba latched onto a standing guillotine and dragged him down, but Stirling worked free. Cutelaba landed another takedown in round two and Stirling popped straight back up, then pinned a gassed Cutelaba against the fence and finished it with punches and elbows at 3:23.
TKO R2His first stoppage inside the Octagon. He settled it from top position on the mat at 4:05 of round two, a TKO by ground-and-pound.
TKO R2UFC Perth. Fifteen tough minutes against a strong grappler: Bellato landed exactly one takedown, late in round two, and his round-three attempts came up empty. Cards read 30-27, 30-27, 29-28.
Unanimous DecisionUFC 315. Second straight decision since arriving in the UFC, working from the outside against a durable Croatian. Before Tokkos he was coming off a second-round TKO of Phillip Latu on the Contender Series in September 2024.
Unanimous DecisionOctagon debut after earning his deal on the Contender Series. Won on the cards without much trouble, but nowhere near the output he brings today.
Unanimous DecisionFive fights, five wins in the UFC, and the shape of them tells the story: three straight decisions on the way in, then back-to-back TKOs. He took this fight on a little over two weeks' notice, six weeks after stopping Cutelaba. He trains at City Kickboxing in Auckland alongside Ulberg, Adesanya and Dan Hooker. And the short notice here belongs to him, not the Pole: two weeks is no camp to study a former champion, and he has to make weight inside that same window. By his own account he was flying home from a holiday in Japan, coming off a massive bender, when the phone rang. The one line missing from his whole resume is a ranked opponent.
Level of Competition
There are no common opponents, and the resume gap is the most uncomfortable number in this fight for anyone backing the unbeaten guy. Every ranking cited here and in the recent-fight cards is the fighter's rank on fight night, not today's. Over his last five, Błachowicz faced Carlos Ulberg when he was No. 6 and not yet champion, Magomed Ankalaev at No. 4 with a vacant belt on the line, Alex Pereira on his light heavyweight debut, still unranked in the division, Aleksandar Rakić at No. 3, and Bogdan Guskov at No. 11. Stirling beat Cutelaba, Bruno Lopes, Bellato, Erslan and Tokkos, and not one of them was inside the top 15. The real crossover is indirect: Błachowicz is 1-1 against City Kickboxing, Stirling's gym, having beaten Adesanya at UFC 259 and lost to Ulberg in London. On the same fight-night basis, the top-5 line has the Pole at 3-2-1, with wins over Dominick Reyes (No. 1), Aleksandar Rakić (No. 3) and Corey Anderson (No. 5), losses to Alexander Gustafsson (No. 2) and Glover Teixeira (No. 1), and the draw with Magomed Ankalaev (No. 4).
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes por Minuto
The starkest number in the fight: Stirling nearly doubles the output, and three rounds reward exactly that
Precisão de Strikes (%)
Strikes Absorvidos/Min
Błachowicz eats half a strike more per minute, and at 43 that adds up
Defesa de Strikes (%)
Takedowns por 15 Min
Neither man is a wrestler: near-identical numbers, and low on both sides
Defesa de Takedown (%)
Basically even on paper, but Cutelaba put Stirling on the mat in June
Submissões por 15 Min
The path only one man owns: nine submission wins in 29 for the Pole
Błachowicz leads in 2 categories · Stirling leads in 5
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Błachowicz is the more complete fighter on paper, and it isn't close: nine knockouts, nine submissions and 11 decisions in 29 wins, an almost perfect split across all three ways to win a fight. Stirling is narrower and more direct: six TKOs and four decisions in 10 wins, with zero career submissions. That matters enormously for the method. The Pole owns a path, the mat, that the New Zealander simply does not have on his record, and it's the exact path Cutelaba cracked open in June. Worth noting on the other side is how his stoppages actually happen: he settled Bruno Lopes from top position on the mat, and he finished Cutelaba on his feet, punching and elbowing an exhausted man pinned against the fence. Neither one came from a single clean shot in an exchange, and his likeliest route is still banking fifteen minutes, not finding a button.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
The loss profile is Błachowicz's best argument here, and the best argument against betting the knockout. Across 11 career losses, only two came by strikes, 18 percent, and the only one inside the UFC was Thiago Santos in February 2019. Sixty-four percent of his losses are decisions, which means beating him usually looks like outpointing him, not flattening him: that's what Ulberg did in London and what Pereira did by a single card at UFC 291. On the other side there's no sample at all. Stirling is 10-0 and has never lost, which is both a credential and a hole in the data: nobody knows how he responds when he's behind on the cards, genuinely hurt, or needing a finish in the last five minutes. The closest he has come was round one with Cutelaba, standing guillotine and all.
Skills Profile
Błachowicz
vs
Stirling
Striking em Distância
+3 Stirling
6.24 significant strikes per minute to 3.55, with two inches of height to manage the distance.
Striking em Curta Distância
+1 Błachowicz
Pressed against the fence, the Pole's strength and structure still rule. That's how he held down Adesanya late at UFC 259.
Poder de Nocaute
+2 Stirling
Six TKOs in 10 wins for the New Zealander, though the last two came off accumulation, one from top position and one against a gassed Cutelaba on the fence, rather than a single clean shot.
Defesa de Striking
+1 Stirling
58% defense and 2.62 strikes absorbed per minute for Stirling against 52% and 3.14 for the Pole, who got dropped by one Guskov shot in December.
Grappling e Clinch
+2 Błachowicz
Nine submissions in 29 wins against zero in Stirling's whole career, and Cutelaba proved in June that the New Zealander can be put on the mat.
Experiência e QI de Luta
+4 Błachowicz
Twenty-two Octagon fights, five-round nights with Adesanya and Ankalaev, a belt in the closet. Stirling has never faced a ranked man.
On paper the split is fair, three edges each, which is why this isn't a walkover. The difference is that Stirling's edges bank points minute by minute, while Błachowicz's need a specific moment to show up: he has to close, trap, and get it to the floor. Over three rounds, the man who has to manufacture a moment is worse off than the man who only has to keep his pace.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
The thesis is: Navajo Stirling wins because he lands 6.24 significant strikes per minute to Błachowicz's 3.55 and is fifteen years younger in a fight that only lasts three rounds, which is exactly the format that rewards that output; because the Pole arrives at 43, without a win since May 2022, with a meniscus he tore in April that pulled him from UFC 328 and a camp built for a different opponent until fifteen days ago; and because the game plan that solves Błachowicz already exists and was born inside Stirling's own gym, when Carlos Ulberg, now the champion and his daily teammate at City Kickboxing, circled the outside in London in March 2025 and swept the cards 29-28 while throwing far less than Stirling throws.
The thesis is: Navajo Stirling wins because he lands 6.24 significant strikes per minute to Błachowicz's 3.55 and is fifteen years younger in a fight that only lasts three rounds, which is exactly the format that rewards that output; because the Pole arrives at 43, without a win since May 2022, with a meniscus he tore in April that pulled him from UFC 328 and a camp built for a different opponent until fifteen days ago; and because the game plan that solves Błachowicz already exists and was born inside Stirling's own gym, when Carlos Ulberg, now the champion and his daily teammate at City Kickboxing, circled the outside in London in March 2025 and swept the cards 29-28 while throwing far less than Stirling throws.
The path is the New Zealander spending round one at the end of the jab and the low kick without ever accepting the clinch, weathering the entry Błachowicz always tries in the second, and letting output settle the cards in the third. It breaks down if the Pole closes the distance and drags this to the mat, where he owns nine submissions in 29 wins and where Cutelaba already showed the way, locking up a standing guillotine in the first and putting Stirling down again in the second, even if the New Zealander got straight back up both times.
Conviction
Conviction 5, deliberately capped, and the reason is structural. The calibre caveat is two full points and it isn't a footnote: Błachowicz built his numbers against Ankalaev, Pereira, Ulberg and Rakić, calibre 4, while Stirling built his against Tokkos, Erslan, Bellato, Bruno Lopes and Cutelaba, calibre 2, and not one of those five was inside the top 15. That's the opposite of a trustworthy sample, and a gap that size usually flips the pick outright. What keeps me on Stirling anyway is four pieces of evidence specific to this fight that don't depend on calibre at all: the age gap, 43 against 28; the meniscus he tore in April 2026 that pulled him from UFC 328; the opponent switch fifteen days out after a full camp built for Guskov; and the Ulberg precedent, which is the same frame, the same technical school and the same training room. None of them require Stirling to be better than he has already shown, only to repeat what he already does. There's a debit on the other side I'm not going to paper over, and it belongs to the New Zealander: the short notice is his. A little over two weeks, six weeks removed from a hard night with Cutelaba, no opponent-specific preparation for a former champion, and a weight cut that has to happen inside that same window. That's what holds conviction at 5 and what keeps me from pushing his number higher. And I'll log this as a caveat rather than an argument: I'm on the same side as the market here. The fight opened with Stirling favored, per MMA Odds Breaker's July 25 opening-odds piece, and the line has only stretched since. What separates me from the market is the size of the number, not the side, and the size is enough:, the Yahoo Sports price on July 27, the math demands nearly 77% for Stirling, and says 75%. I have him at 57%. In other words, I'm picking the New Zealander and still think he's overpriced.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
If Błachowicz closes and pins Stirling on the fence inside the first three minutes of round one, the volume thesis dies right there: Cutelaba put him on the mat twice in June, and every second spent on the fence is output Stirling isn't banking.
- 02
If Stirling ends up on his back, even by choice, the thesis dies: Cutelaba locked a standing guillotine on him in June, and Błachowicz has nine submissions in 29 wins.
- 03
If the knee holds and the Pole lands clean leg kicks early, Stirling's 6-foot-4 mobility shrinks and the three-round math looks completely different.
- 04
If Stirling rushes for a third straight knockout because this is the biggest opportunity of his career, he hands over the exact close-range real estate Błachowicz hunts for, and the Pole is a counter fighter: he dropped Guskov in the closing seconds of round three at 42.
Underdog Path
Błachowicz accepts losing round one on the feet and spends those five minutes timing Stirling's jab, exactly the way he did against Guskov in December. In the second he closes on angles instead of walking in straight, pins the New Zealander on the fence and forces a long clinch, where his strength is still former-champion grade. From there it's the takedown, the mat, and the hunt for the rear-naked choke or the armbar. Cutelaba put Stirling down twice in June and couldn't keep him there on either one, so Błachowicz's job isn't getting the takedown, it's not letting him stand back up. If the finish doesn't come, he steals the round on control time and runs it back in the third, turning this into an ugly grind the judges have to sort out on criteria, which is where his experience dwarfs the other man's. If he gets it there in any of the three rounds, he wins, because nothing on Stirling's record shows he solves that against someone at this level.
Required Conditions
- Close the distance on angles inside the first five minutes, never walking straight into the end of the New Zealander's jab
- Pin Stirling on the fence, land at least one takedown per round, and above all keep him down there, which is exactly what Cutelaba failed to do on either takedown in June
- Absorb the leg kicks without the April meniscus limiting his weight transfer and his base for the takedown entry
- Force the judges to choose between volume and control, rather than between volume and nothing
— Precedent: Błachowicz vs Israel Adesanya, UFC 259 (March 2021): another City Kickboxing striker, taller, faster and far higher volume, and the Pole won a unanimous decision by doing exactly this, closing the distance, getting it to the floor, and owning the late rounds. Same stylistic problem, fifteen years younger.
Verdict
Winner
Navajo Stirling
Method
Decision
Most Likely
- 01
Como termina (qualquer lutador)
Fight goes to decision
Decision because Błachowicz has been stopped by strikes once in 22 UFC fights, back in 2019, and only twice across all 42 pro fights; on top of that, four of his last five went to the cards, and three of Stirling's last five did too. The market will inflate the decision price off the New Zealander's two recent TKOs as though they're the rule, and they aren't. Breaks if the Pole's knee locks up early and he becomes a stationary target.
- 02
Método
Stirling by decision
The cleanest expression of the thesis: banked volume across three rounds without needing a moment of impact. Stirling has already won four times on the cards, and both of his stoppages came off accumulation, one from top position and one against a gassed Cutelaba on the fence, rather than a single clean shot. With no posted price and the market on the New Zealander, this is a read, not a value bet. Breaks if Błachowicz steals two rounds on control time.
- 03
Vencedor azarão
Jan Błachowicz
At, the price Yahoo Sports posted on July 27, the market gives the Pole 28%, and I have him at 40%. That makes this the only genuinely fat price on the board, and it got fat because the line kept stretching out from open on the New Zealander. Prices move book to book, so shop for the longest number before you commit. His path is concrete: clinch on the fence, takedown, mat, where the New Zealander has zero career submissions and where Cutelaba already put him down twice in June. It's the one item here that points against my own pick, and it's on the board for the price, not the read: small stake. Breaks if the April meniscus won't allow the takedown entry.
Most Likely Outcome
Fight goes to decision
At conviction 5 I'm not paying up on anybody, and this is the one line that doesn't require picking the winner. The place where my thesis and the underdog's thesis agree is that these fifteen minutes end with both men upright: Ulberg couldn't stop Błachowicz, Guskov dropped him but couldn't finish him, and Stirling has never had to prove his power against a chin at this level. It's the soundest read in the whole analysis.
Stats That Matter
1
time Błachowicz has been stopped by strikes inside the UFC
Thiago Santos, February 2019. Not once in the other 21 Octagon fights. Across all 42 pro fights, it's twice
ZERO
ranked opponents on Stirling's entire record
Cutelaba, Lopes, Bellato, Erslan and Tokkos: none of them were top 15
15 days
of notice since the opponent switch, announced July 17
Błachowicz trained the whole camp for Bogdan Guskov
The Trap
Stirling by knockout before the third
It's the bet the public will sprint to, because the New Zealander's last two ended in second-round TKOs and the other guy is 43. But Błachowicz has been stopped by strikes twice in 42 pro fights, and the only one inside the UFC was Thiago Santos in February 2019. Ulberg, the ceiling of this archetype and now the champion, couldn't even wobble him across 15 minutes in London. Guskov rocked him badly in December and still watched Błachowicz drop him late in round three. Paying finisher prices against one of the most tested chins at 205 is the trap of the night.
It's the bet the public will sprint to, because the New Zealander's last two ended in second-round TKOs and the other guy is 43. But Błachowicz has been stopped by strikes twice in 42 pro fights, and the only one inside the UFC was Thiago Santos in February 2019. Ulberg, the ceiling of this archetype and now the champion, couldn't even wobble him across 15 minutes in London. Guskov rocked him badly in December and still watched Błachowicz drop him late in round three. Paying finisher prices against one of the most tested chins at 205 is the trap of the night.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Jan Błachowicz vs Navajo Stirling | UFC Fight Night: Medić vs Rodriguez | August 1, 2026 | Belgrade Arena, Belgrade, Serbia
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