May 30, 2026 · Galaxy Arena, Macau
Aoriqileng
26-12-0 (1 NC)
Unranked BantamweightInner Mongolia, China | 32 years old
Haddon
8-1-0
Unranked BantamweightJoondalup, Australia | 27 years old
Veteran Mongol vs Australian Prospect, three rounds in Macau
Aoriqileng is fresh off the fastest KO of his career (Cody Gibson, 21 seconds) but carries a 4-4 (1 NC) UFC record. Haddon debuted with a clean UD over Argueta in October 2024, fractured his foot out of UFC 312, and returns after roughly 18 months on the shelf. Tapology pick'em has Haddon at 86%.
THE PARADOX
The Veteran Who Still KOs in 21 Seconds. The Prospect Who Returns From 18 Months Out.
Aoriqileng sits at 4-4 with 1 NC inside the UFC and just produced the fastest knockout of his career (21 seconds over Cody Gibson in October 2025, straight right). The public narrative paints him as a fading veteran, and Tapology lists him at 14% in pick'em. The actual calibre context: those four UFC losses came against Jeff Molina, Cody Durden, Aiemann Zahabi (a top-15 fighter at the time), and Raul Rosas Jr. (a ranked prospect). All technical strikers who controlled the stand-up. Pattern is clear: anyone who can manage pace and range walks through Aoriqileng. On the other side, Cody Haddon is the Australian prospect who earned his contract by choking out Billy Brand on the Contender Series and debuted with a wide UD over Dan Argueta (30-27 across all cards). BJJ black belt, three-time Australian junior amateur boxing champion, 8-1 with seven finishes. But he's a one-fight UFC sample. And he's coming back from roughly 18 months out with the fractured foot that pulled him from UFC 312. The matchup question isn't technical, it's structural: does an Australian prospect have the tools to walk through a fading veteran over three rounds, or does the ring rust meet the Mongolian's straight right inside the first two minutes?
Aoriqileng sits at 4-4 with 1 NC inside the UFC and just produced the fastest knockout of his career (21 seconds over Cody Gibson in October 2025, straight right). The public narrative paints him as a fading veteran, and Tapology lists him at 14% in pick'em. The actual calibre context: those four UFC losses came against Jeff Molina, Cody Durden, Aiemann Zahabi (a top-15 fighter at the time), and Raul Rosas Jr. (a ranked prospect). All technical strikers who controlled the stand-up. Pattern is clear: anyone who can manage pace and range walks through Aoriqileng. On the other side, Cody Haddon is the Australian prospect who earned his contract by choking out Billy Brand on the Contender Series and debuted with a wide UD over Dan Argueta (30-27 across all cards). BJJ black belt, three-time Australian junior amateur boxing champion, 8-1 with seven finishes. But he's a one-fight UFC sample. And he's coming back from roughly 18 months out with the fractured foot that pulled him from UFC 312. The matchup question isn't technical, it's structural: does an Australian prospect have the tools to walk through a fading veteran over three rounds, or does the ring rust meet the Mongolian's straight right inside the first two minutes?
Truth A
Haddon brings age (27 vs 32), prospect upside (8-1 with an 87% finishing rate), a technical profile (a wide UD over Argueta in his UFC debut, 64% striking defense, 83% takedown defense), a BJJ black belt, and the market behind him (86% pick'em). His regional calibre is mismatched against Aoriqileng, a veteran who's lost to the UFC's technical prospects.
Truth B
Aoriqileng owns 26 career wins and just iced Cody Gibson in 21 seconds with a straight right. The hand still ends nights. Haddon returns after roughly 18 months out with a fractured foot. In bantamweight territory, one hand flips the night, and ring rust is a legitimate variable. The underdog's path is real, even if it's narrow.
Tale of the Tape
Aoriqileng born June 1993 (32), Haddon September 1998 (27). Five years to the Mongolian.
Tied at the tape. Both stand 5'7".
Identical reach. 69 inches each. No physical edge on range.
Symmetrical stance matchup. Both orthodox, no open-stance angle to attack.
Aoriqileng trains out of Inner Mongolia. Haddon trains at the Luistro Combat Academy in Perth. Different origin camps, neither at an elite global gym.
Current Form
Aoriqileng
Fastest UFC KO of his career. Straight right landed cleanly in the first 18 seconds, dropped Gibson, and finished with hammerfists. The performance that saved his roster spot.
KO R1 (straight right + ground strikes, 0:21)Noche UFC 306 at the Sphere in Las Vegas. Rosas Jr. controlled the stand-up and took it 30-27 across all three cards. Aoriqileng went 15 minutes without getting hurt, but never found the moment to swing the fight.
Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)Ruled a no contest in round two after an accidental illegal strike at 3:28. No verdict on merit.
No Contest R2 (illegal strike, 3:28)Split decision over three rounds. Aoriqileng won the stand-up exchanges in the center and shut down Munoz Jr.'s grappling looks.
Decision (3 rounds)Zahabi landed a left hook at 1:04 of round one and finished on the floor. The only KO/TKO loss of Aoriqileng's career to date.
KO R1 (left hook + ground strikes, 1:04)Coming off the fastest knockout of his career: stopped Cody Gibson in 21 seconds of round one in October 2025 with a straight right and follow-up hammerfists on the Vancouver card. That win bought him a job. Before that, he dropped a decision to Raul Rosas Jr. at Noche UFC 306 (September 2024), and his bout with Daniel Marcos in February 2024 was waved off as a no contest after an accidental foul at 3:28 of round two. He's 4-4 with 1 NC inside the UFC since debuting in 2022. The four UFC losses came against Jeff Molina (UD, April 2021), Cody Durden (UD, November 2021), Aiemann Zahabi (KO R1 by left hook, June 2023), and Rosas Jr. Pattern is crystal clear: technical prospects who can manage range run through him. At 32, the 21-second KO was a reminder that the right hand still ends nights, but the calibre of the guys he's beaten in this stretch is the real story.
Cody Haddon
Clean UFC debut. Wide UD over three rounds, controlled the stand-up at range and shut down Argueta's wrestling looks. Scored 30-27 across all three cards.
Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)Dana White's Contender Series. Submitted Billy Brand with a rear-naked choke at 3:09 of round one. Earned the UFC contract on the spot.
Sub R1 (rear-naked choke, 3:09)HEX Fight Series 29. Rear-naked choke at 3:22 of round two. The finishing template on the regional scene.
Sub R2 (rear-naked choke, 3:22)HEX Fight Series 27. Knee to the body inside one minute of round one. HEX Bantamweight title on the line.
TKO R1 (knee to the body, 1:00)Rogue MMA 4. Finished in 56 seconds of round one by strikes. Part of a seven-fight finishing run on the Australian regional circuit.
TKO R1 (strikes, 0:56)Debuted in the UFC in October 2024 with a wide unanimous decision (30-27 x3) over Dan Argueta on the Royval vs Taira card. Before that, he punched his ticket by submitting Billy Brand with a first-round rear-naked choke on Dana White's Contender Series in August 2024 (3:09 of round one). His 8-1 regional run features one loss only, a decision to Steve Erceg back in 2021 (Erceg has since become a top flyweight contender), with the other seven wins all by submission or knockout. He fractured his foot in fight week for UFC 312 in February 2025 and was replaced by Colby Thicknesse against Aleksandre Topuria. He returns after roughly 18 months on the shelf. Three-time Australian junior amateur boxing champion, BJJ black belt. Trains at the Luistro Combat Academy in Perth. At 27, he's the Australian prospect getting his second look at the UFC level.
Level of Competition
No direct common opponents. The calibre comparison is the point: Aoriqileng has eight UFC fights (4W-4L with 1 NC) against a mix of prospects and mid-tier (Molina, Durden, Zahabi, Munoz Jr. Rosas Jr. Gibson) and his biggest loss came against Zahabi by KO. Haddon has one UFC fight (the win over Argueta) and his other seven career wins all came on the Australian regional circuit. Neither fighter has faced a top-15 bantamweight. The calibre jump here is mostly a test of Haddon's prospect upside, and the assumption is that his regional level (seven finishes in eight wins) translates upward. Sample-size caveat: one UFC fight isn't enough to lock anything in on Haddon.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes per Minute
Haddon nearly doubles the volume, but the sample is one UFC fight. Aoriqileng has eight UFC bouts and more settled numbers.
Striking Accuracy (%)
Practically tied. Both connect on roughly half their attempts.
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Aoriqileng absorbs almost 60% more. He's in the top 10% most punished in the division by SApM. Clear durability risk.
Striking Defense (%)
Haddon a clean 15 points ahead. Stronger striking defense across his one UFC outing.
Takedowns per 15 Min
Haddon attempts roughly twice as many. Higher wrestling volume in the Australian profile.
Takedown Accuracy (%)
Aoriqileng is sharper when he commits, but he commits rarely. The stand-up is his lane.
Takedown Defense (%)
KEY STAT. Haddon at 83% TDD (one-fight UFC sample) vs Aoriqileng at 58%. Australian shuts down takedowns, Mongolian gives them up.
Aoriqileng leads in 1 categories · Haddon leads in 6
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Aoriqileng's win profile is spread out: 16 decisions (62%), eight KOs (31%), and one submission (4%) across 26 wins. The decision-heavy split reinforces a profile that goes the distance and closes cards when the KO doesn't come. The eight KOs include the 21-second straight right over Gibson in October 2025, so the power is real. Haddon's distribution is far more finishing-heavy: five KOs (62%), two submissions (25%), and one decision (13%) across eight wins. An 87% career finishing rate. Two rear-naked chokes and five KOs show he steps in to close when the opening shows up. Structural difference: Aoriqileng decision-heavy, Haddon finishing-heavy.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Clear pattern in Aoriqileng's losses: eight of 12 by decision (67%), only one by KO/TKO (Zahabi's left hook in June 2023), and three by submission. Historically he loses on the cards or to grinding pressure, not by getting cracked. But Zahabi's left hook did land. Haddon's lone loss (the 2021 decision to Steve Erceg on the Australian regional circuit, with Erceg later becoming a top flyweight contender) is too small a sample to establish a vulnerability pattern. Sample-size caveat: one loss doesn't establish anything.
Skills Profile
Aoriqileng
vs
Haddon
Striking Volume
+2 Haddon
Haddon at 9.20 SLpM vs Aoriqileng at 4.69. Haddon's sample is one UFC fight (Argueta), but the regional volume reinforces the pattern.
Striking at Range
+2 Haddon
Haddon at 51% accuracy and 64% striking defense vs Aoriqileng at 50% and 49%. Australian is sharper on pocket exits.
Knockout Power
+2 Aoriqileng
Aoriqileng has eight KOs across 26 wins and a straight right that finished Gibson in 21 seconds. Haddon has five KOs in eight wins (finisher profile), but Aoriqileng's one-shot power is the headline credential.
Takedown Defense
+2 Haddon
Haddon at 83% TDD over one UFC fight vs Aoriqileng at 58%. Australian theoretically shuts down takedowns, but the sample is thin.
BJJ and Submissions
+2 Haddon
Haddon is a BJJ black belt with two rear-naked chokes on his record. Aoriqileng has one career win by submission and three losses by sub. Clear gap on the floor.
Three-Round Cardio
Even
Aoriqileng has gone the 15-minute distance against Rosas Jr. Molina, Durden, and Munoz Jr. Three-round cardio is tested. Haddon has one 15-minute UFC fight but returns from roughly 18 months out.
Haddon owns the edge across four of the six dimensions (volume, range striking, takedown defense, BJJ), but Aoriqileng holds the one-shot power and tested cardio. The fight is a race between Haddon imposing his technical pace or Aoriqileng landing the straight right early.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
The thesis is: Cody Haddon wins because he brings age and prospect upside (a clean 8-1 record against Aoriqileng's veteran 26-12-1NC line, regional calibre tilted toward the Australian), he's the consensus market pick (Tapology pick'em 86%), and Aoriqileng arrives as a fading veteran carrying a clear pattern of UFC losses to technical prospects like Molina, Durden, Zahabi, and Rosas Jr.
The thesis is: Cody Haddon wins because he brings age and prospect upside (a clean 8-1 record against Aoriqileng's veteran 26-12-1NC line, regional calibre tilted toward the Australian), he's the consensus market pick (Tapology pick'em 86%), and Aoriqileng arrives as a fading veteran carrying a clear pattern of UFC losses to technical prospects like Molina, Durden, Zahabi, and Rosas Jr.
The path is Haddon managing range in round one, avoiding pocket exchanges where Aoriqileng has legitimate power (the recent 21-second KO), landing technical combinations on exits, mixing in takedown looks if the opening appears, and closing cards 29-28 or scoring a late TKO if Aoriqileng's gas tank dips. It collapses if Aoriqileng lands the straight right inside the first two minutes before Haddon can establish pace, repeating the formula from the 21-second KO over Gibson.
Conviction
Conviction lands at 6, not 7, because (1) the market line is loud (86% pick'em already compresses the value), (2) Aoriqileng's UFC loss pattern shows technical prospects run him over, (3) age favors Haddon (27 vs 32). But Aoriqileng has real one-shot power (the 21-second KO over Gibson in October 2025 was clean), (b) Haddon returns after roughly 18 months out with a fractured foot, and ring rust is a legitimate variable, (c) bantamweight is a volatile division where one hand changes the night. The 62-34-4 split reflects the consensus pick without inflating the confidence.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
If Aoriqileng lands the straight right inside the first two minutes, the same window that caught Gibson, early KO becomes the favorite outcome
- 02
If Haddon's foot doesn't hold up and he loses mobility after the first leg kick, range management falls apart
- 03
If Haddon shows real rust on the entry read and Aoriqileng forces a pocket exchange before pace is established
- 04
If Aoriqileng comes forward without ceding respect and Haddon lacks the volume to dictate the opening five minutes
Underdog Path
Aoriqileng has one central path. Path A (early KO via Mongolian power). The 21-second KO over Cody Gibson in October 2025 wasn't an accident, it was a straight right landed at the perfect entry. Plant it again inside the first 90 seconds, before Haddon can settle his read of the octagon and his rhythm. The window exists because Haddon returns from 18 months out and a foot fracture. Path B (decision via experience) is unlikely given the UFC loss pattern against Molina, Durden, and Rosas Jr. All prospects who controlled the stand-up cleanly over 15 minutes.
Required Conditions
- Land the straight right or heavy overhand inside the first two minutes, before Haddon can establish pace
- Force pocket exchanges without conceding range to a more technical Australian with identical 69-inch reach
- Capitalize on any sign of rust from a fighter who's been off for roughly 18 months with a fractured foot
- Avoid sustained pocket trading beyond 30-second stretches, given the documented gas-tank issue
— Precedent: Aoriqileng himself iced Cody Gibson in October 2025 with a 21-second KO off a straight right. Early UFC KOs are the power template here. But Gibson's calibre is a small-sample data point, and the technical UFC prospects (Molina, Durden, Rosas Jr.) walked him over 15 minutes. Path A has a recent precedent. Path B doesn't.
Verdict
Winner
Cody Haddon
Method
Unanimous Decision or late TKO
Most Likely
- 01
Winner
Haddon to win
Estimated true probability 62%, implied = 77%. No direct edge on the straight ML at short price, but the structural thesis is solid (four convergent dimensions: calibre, age, market, technical profile). Going at Haddon through a wider method bucket plays better than the chalky ML.
- 02
Method
Haddon ITD (KO or sub, any round)
Haddon has five KOs and two subs across eight career wins (87% finishing rate). Aoriqileng has one KO loss and three sub losses on his ledger. If Haddon settles his read, he has the tools to close. Implied is 45%, estimated 40-44%. Thin edge but real.
- 03
Specific Method
Aoriqileng by KO round 1
The underdog's Path A. The 21-second KO over Gibson in October 2025 is the template. If Haddon shows rust or favors the foot, Aoriqileng's straight right has a window. Implied 28%, estimated 18-22% for this specific scenario. Cover bet on the underdog, not a thesis pick.
- 04
Total Rounds
Under 2.5 rounds
Aoriqileng has one-shot power and Haddon has five KOs plus two subs across eight career wins. Both finish. If Haddon controls as expected, a late R3 TKO is the central scenario. If Aoriqileng lands early, R1 KO closes it. The least likely outcome is a clean three-round UD.
Most Likely Outcome
Haddon ITD (KO or sub, any round)
The biggest indirect edge on the card. Combines the headline pick (Haddon to win) with the most likely method (finish or late TKO). Aoriqileng absorbs 5.47 SApM (top 10% most punished in the division), defends only 49% of strikes, and has one KO loss plus three sub losses on his record. Haddon's career finishing rate is 87%. Implied is 45%, estimated 42-46%. Solid edge.
Stats That Matter
86%
Tapology pick'em on Haddon
Public market reads the Australian prospect as a clear favorite. Aoriqileng at 14% reflects the fading-veteran narrative.
21s
Time of Aoriqileng's KO over Cody Gibson (Oct 2025)
Straight right into hammerfists. Reminder the hand still ends nights. The underdog's Path A lives on this precedent.
83%
Haddon's UFC takedown defense
One-fight UFC sample against Argueta, but it reinforces the defensive wrestling profile. Aoriqileng attempts 1.20 TDs per 15. The ground path for the Mongolian is minimal.
The Trap
Trap: Haddon by Clean Decision at Short Odds
The easy temptation is Haddon or Haddon by UD at thin odds. Three things should slow that pen down. First, 18 months of layoff and a fractured foot don't vanish at the cage door. Second, Aoriqileng just proved the right hand still ends fights (Gibson in 21 seconds), and his only KO loss came back in 2023. Third, Haddon's 9.20 SLpM is a one-fight UFC sample against Argueta, not an established baseline. Betting Haddon by UD at short odds means trusting that an Australian prospect comes off an extended layoff looking close to debut form against a veteran with legitimate one-shot power. If you're on Haddon, the wider method bucket (Haddon ITD or moneyline at better number) plays cleaner than UD specific.
The easy temptation is Haddon or Haddon by UD at thin odds. Three things should slow that pen down. First, 18 months of layoff and a fractured foot don't vanish at the cage door. Second, Aoriqileng just proved the right hand still ends fights (Gibson in 21 seconds), and his only KO loss came back in 2023. Third, Haddon's 9.20 SLpM is a one-fight UFC sample against Argueta, not an established baseline. Betting Haddon by UD at short odds means trusting that an Australian prospect comes off an extended layoff looking close to debut form against a veteran with legitimate one-shot power. If you're on Haddon, the wider method bucket (Haddon ITD or moneyline at better number) plays cleaner than UD specific.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Aoriqileng "The Mongolian Murderer" vs Cody Haddon | UFC Fight Night: Song vs Figueiredo | May 30, 2026 | Galaxy Arena, Macau
Keep reading the full analysis
Round-by-round scenarios, skill profile, win distribution, paths to victory and final model prediction.
- Full analysis of every main card fight
- Round-by-round scenarios and predictions
- Access every new event automatically
By subscribing you agree to the Terms of Service and Privacy Policy. See the Refund Policy.