June 27, 2026 · National Gymnastics Arena, Baku
Almakhan
12-3-0
UnrankedUzynagash, Kazakhstan | 28 years old
Matsumoto
17-2-0
UnrankedBraganca Paulista, Brazil | 26 years old
Power vs. Depth
Almakhan puts people away in seconds and was the first man ever to finish the durable Brad Katona. Matsumoto beat that same Katona the hard way, over three rounds, and has never even been wobbled.
O PONTO QUE DECIDE
Same Katona, Two Different Stories
Both men fought the same guy, and the comparison tells the whole story. In October 2024, Jean Matsumoto beat Brad Katona by unanimous decision over three hard, bloody rounds against a two-time TUF champion who had never been finished in his life. Seven months later, Almakhan stepped in with that same Katona and flattened him with a right uppercut at 1:04 of round 1. He became the first fighter ever to knock the Superman out. The easy read is that Almakhan is the more dangerous man. And he is, for the first five minutes. But look at what happens when he doesn't get the early knockout. Against Umar Nurmagomedov, he landed 5 of 25 strikes and got run over for three rounds. Against Aleksandre Topuria, he started hot, dropped the favorite with a leg kick, then got hunted down, bloodied, and outworked as the fight stretched. The pattern is clear: Almakhan is a bomb in round 1 and a target in rounds 2 and 3 against anyone who survives and brings pace. Matsumoto is exactly that kind of problem. High volume at 5.37 significant strikes per minute, a real takedown game (he hit 7 of 10 takedowns on Rob Font), a sharp guillotine, and a chin that has never failed across 19 fights. His only two losses were razor-thin, disputed split decisions to Font and Farid Basharat, fights plenty of people thought he won. The Brazilian doesn't put you to sleep. He drowns you in round three.
Both men fought the same guy, and the comparison tells the whole story. In October 2024, Jean Matsumoto beat Brad Katona by unanimous decision over three hard, bloody rounds against a two-time TUF champion who had never been finished in his life. Seven months later, Almakhan stepped in with that same Katona and flattened him with a right uppercut at 1:04 of round 1. He became the first fighter ever to knock the Superman out. The easy read is that Almakhan is the more dangerous man. And he is, for the first five minutes. But look at what happens when he doesn't get the early knockout. Against Umar Nurmagomedov, he landed 5 of 25 strikes and got run over for three rounds. Against Aleksandre Topuria, he started hot, dropped the favorite with a leg kick, then got hunted down, bloodied, and outworked as the fight stretched. The pattern is clear: Almakhan is a bomb in round 1 and a target in rounds 2 and 3 against anyone who survives and brings pace. Matsumoto is exactly that kind of problem. High volume at 5.37 significant strikes per minute, a real takedown game (he hit 7 of 10 takedowns on Rob Font), a sharp guillotine, and a chin that has never failed across 19 fights. His only two losses were razor-thin, disputed split decisions to Font and Farid Basharat, fights plenty of people thought he won. The Brazilian doesn't put you to sleep. He drowns you in round three.
Truth A
The eye test says Almakhan. He has fight-ending power in a single shot, he was the first man to finish Katona, and he's got 10 knockouts in 12 wins. If he lands clean in round 1, it's over, and his record is full of guys put away early.
Truth B
The math says Matsumoto. Almakhan lands just 1.61 strikes per minute with 42% takedown defense, and when the fight gets past round 1 against a complete fighter, he sinks. Matsumoto has the volume, the takedowns and the chin to survive those opening five minutes and own the rest.
Tale of the Tape
Matsumoto is 2 years younger
Matsumoto holds a slight reach edge
Current Form
Bekzat Almakhan
UFC Qatar. Started hot, dropped the undefeated favorite with a leg kick and landed good knees in the clinch. But Topuria went to his wrestling in round 2, walked the Kazakh down, and bloodied him on the cards. The same pattern again: strong early, outworked as it stretched.
Unanimous DecisionUFC 315. Opened the card with a brutal right uppercut at 1:04 of round 1. Became the first fighter ever to finish two-time TUF champ Brad Katona. The knockout that proved his fight-ending power.
KO R1UFC debut against the undefeated Umar Nurmagomedov. Got handled wire to wire, landed just 5 of 25 strikes and had no answer for the wrestling. Proof that grappling and pace take him apart.
Unanimous DecisionBroke Brazil's Yan Ferraz down in the third round and finished with the heavy hands. Showed he can carry the power past round 1 when the opponent agrees to stand and trade.
KO R3Landed a clean head kick on Mateus Gloria in round 2. Another flash of the karate arsenal that makes him a constant knockout threat on the feet.
KO R2He comes in 1-2 in the UFC, but the record lies. Both losses came against two of the best prospects in the division, Umar Nurmagomedov and Aleksandre Topuria, both undefeated and both exactly the kind of fighter who drags Almakhan out of his comfort zone. In between, he produced one of the cleanest knockouts of the year, starching Brad Katona in just over a minute. His career message is simple: if the fight turns into an early firefight, he can end anyone. Matsumoto isn't the kind of opponent who'll give him that fight.
Jean Matsumoto
UFC Vegas 113. Even three-round war decided on the cards. Traded takedowns and reversals with Basharat the whole way, but lost a split decision by the thinnest of margins. Another loss that could just as easily have been a win.
Split DecisionGot back in the win column by beating veteran Miles Johns on the cards. Rebuilt confidence after the disputed loss to Font.
Unanimous DecisionUFC Seattle. Bloody war with veteran Rob Font. Landed 7 of 10 takedowns and controlled stretches on the mat, but lost a split decision plenty of people called a robbery. Lost his zero in a fight that looked like his.
Split DecisionUFC Vegas 99. Beat two-time TUF champ Brad Katona by unanimous decision over three hard, bloody rounds. Proved he can win a war and come out ahead on the cards.
Unanimous DecisionLocked in a tight guillotine on Dan Argueta in round 2. The finish that shows off his most dangerous weapon on the mat and in the clinch.
Sub R2On paper he's on a two-fight skid, but the context flips it: both were disputed split decisions, to Rob Font and Farid Basharat, fights much of the media scored for him. The Brazilian went from 16-0 to 17-2 without ever coming close to being finished. He builds wins on volume, takedowns and the guillotine, exactly the grind that punishes a fighter who bets everything on the early knockout. At 26, he's the more complete and more durable man in this fight.
Level of Competition
Both men fought Brad Katona, and the result is the best thermometer for this fight. Matsumoto beat the two-time TUF champ by unanimous decision over three rounds in October 2024. Seven months later, Almakhan flattened that same Katona with an uppercut in just over a minute, becoming the first man ever to finish the veteran. Beyond that, the level is close: Almakhan has more UFC experience against the rising top (he lost to undefeated prospects Umar Nurmagomedov and Aleksandre Topuria), while Matsumoto has five UFC fights with both losses coming in disputed split decisions. Even calibre, with the Brazilian holding the edge in resume depth.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes por Minuto
Matsumoto produces far more volume; Almakhan lives off fight-ending accuracy
Precisão de Strikes (%)
Strikes Absorvidos/Min
Both absorb plenty, but it's Matsumoto's pace that drives the number
Defesa de Strikes (%)
Takedowns por 15 Min
The number that blows the fight open: Matsumoto lives off takedowns, Almakhan has no record of landing a single one in the UFC
Precisão de Takedown (%)
Defesa de Takedown (%)
Almakhan's 42% takedown defense is the Achilles' heel against a fighter landing 3 takedowns per 15 minutes
Submissões por 15 Min
Almakhan leads in 1 categories · Matsumoto leads in 7
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Two opposite finishers. Almakhan is the pure puncher: 10 of his 12 wins by knockout, fight-ending power on the feet that has put guys away in seconds. Matsumoto is the more versatile man, his wins split across 8 decisions, 6 submissions (the guillotine is his signature) and just 3 knockouts. It matters for the method: Almakhan needs a moment of impact, Matsumoto knows how to win on the cards and on the mat, winning every way except the one that leans hardest on luck.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
The loss profiles draw up the fight. Almakhan has never been knocked out, chin intact: of his 3 losses, 2 came by decision (Umar and Topuria, both pace-and-wrestling fights) and 1 by submission back in 2020. The way to beat Almakhan is on the cards or on the mat, exactly Matsumoto's turf. On the other side, the Brazilian has never been finished or knocked out: his only 2 losses were disputed split decisions to Font and Basharat. The practical read: to beat Matsumoto you have to win a tight card war, and Almakhan is not a points fighter. If the Kazakh doesn't land the knockout, he has no plan B to win the rounds.
Skills Profile
Almakhan
vs
Matsumoto
Striking em Distância
+2 Almakhan
Almakhan has the explosive karate and the fight-ending timing, but Matsumoto offsets it with much higher volume at range.
Striking em Curta Distância
+3 Almakhan
In close, Almakhan's uppercut and knees are lethal. That's how he flattened Katona in a minute.
Poder de Nocaute
+3 Almakhan
10 knockouts in 12 wins and a 0.97 knockdown average for Almakhan against 3 KOs for Matsumoto. A real gap in pop.
Defesa de Striking
+1 Matsumoto
Both eat shots, but Matsumoto has a chin proven across 19 fights without ever being finished or even put down.
Grappling e Clinch
+4 Matsumoto
A chasm. Matsumoto lands 3 takedowns per 15 minutes with a sharp guillotine; Almakhan has 42% takedown defense and no recorded UFC takedown of his own.
Cardio (5 rounds)
+3 Matsumoto
Matsumoto holds up in three-round wars and finishes strong; Almakhan sinks once the fight gets past round 1 against pace, like against Umar and Topuria.
Almakhan wins the first round if he turns it into a firefight, where the heavy hands and karate matter. Matsumoto wins everywhere else: volume, takedowns, the guillotine, the chin and three-round cardio. The question isn't who's more skilled, it's whether the Kazakh's power solves the fight before the Brazilian imposes his grind.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
The thesis is: Jean Matsumoto wins because he's the more complete and more durable fighter, landing 5.37 significant strikes per minute with 3 takedowns per 15 against an Almakhan who lands just 1.61 with 42% takedown defense, because the Kazakh has a documented pattern of sinking once the fight gets past round 1 against pace and wrestling (5 of 25 strikes against Umar Nurmagomedov, walked down and bloodied by Topuria), and because the common-opponent thermometer is clear: Matsumoto beat Katona over three hard rounds while Almakhan solved it with one punch, but Matsumoto has never even been wobbled across 19 fights.
The thesis is: Jean Matsumoto wins because he's the more complete and more durable fighter, landing 5.37 significant strikes per minute with 3 takedowns per 15 against an Almakhan who lands just 1.61 with 42% takedown defense, because the Kazakh has a documented pattern of sinking once the fight gets past round 1 against pace and wrestling (5 of 25 strikes against Umar Nurmagomedov, walked down and bloodied by Topuria), and because the common-opponent thermometer is clear: Matsumoto beat Katona over three hard rounds while Almakhan solved it with one punch, but Matsumoto has never even been wobbled across 19 fights.
The path is Matsumoto surviving the heavy hands in those opening five minutes, mixing volume and takedowns in round 1, and from round 2 on owning the grind and the guillotine to close it out on the cards. It breaks down if Almakhan lands the knockout early the way he did on Katona, because his power ends any fight in a single shot.
Conviction
Conviction 6, no higher, because even though the thesis leans on five distinct dimensions (stats, style, level of competition, physique and durability), Almakhan's knockout power is a real equalizer that keeps the underdog path concrete: he has 10 KOs in 12 wins and already flattened the common opponent in 64 seconds. What holds the conviction at 6 instead of dropping it to 5 is the cluster of signals for Matsumoto: Almakhan's documented pattern of fading when a fight stretches, the 42% takedown defense against a fighter landing 3 takedowns per 15, and the Brazilian's chin that has never failed across 19 fights. This isn't a market read: the Brazilian is a slight favorite on the line, but the edge here comes from style and durability, not the number.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
If Almakhan lands the heavy hands or a head kick clean in the first five minutes, the fight is over and the grind thesis never gets to happen.
- 02
If Matsumoto shoots recklessly for the takedown and gets punished with knees and uppercuts in the clinch, the way Almakhan threatened against Topuria, the Brazilian's ground game turns into a trap.
- 03
If Almakhan sharpened his takedown defense in camp and can keep the fight standing for three rounds, his volume is still too low to be sure, but Matsumoto's edge shrinks a lot.
- 04
If the two split-decision losses dented Matsumoto's confidence and he fights tentatively on the feet, it opens windows for the Kazakh's heavy counter.
Underdog Path
Almakhan forces the firefight from the opening bell, uses the karate and the speed to keep Matsumoto at punching range, and lands the heavy hands or a head kick in the first few minutes, before the Brazilian settles his pace and hunts the takedown. It's the exact script of the 64-second knockout of Katona, against an opponent who stands in the pocket a beat longer than he should.
Required Conditions
- Land clean in round 1, before Matsumoto imposes volume and pulls the fight out of the firefight
- Defend the early takedown attempts and keep the fight standing at punching range
- Don't rush and burn the gas tank hunting the knockout, avoiding the fade he showed against Umar and Topuria
- Punish the Brazilian's takedown entries with knees and uppercuts in the clinch, the way he threatened against Topuria
— Precedent: Almakhan vs Brad Katona (UFC 315, May 2025): the Kazakh became the first man ever to finish the durable two-time TUF champ, starching him with an uppercut at 1:04 of round 1. It shows that against anyone who stands and trades early, his power ends the fight in seconds.
Verdict
Winner
Jean Matsumoto
Method
Unanimous Decision
Most Likely
- 01
Winner
Jean Matsumoto
Matsumoto because he's more complete, more durable and has the takedown game to exploit Almakhan's 42% defense. The market already sees it, so there's no fat edge here, it's a moderate-stake play. Breaks if the Kazakh lands the knockout in round 1.
- 02
Método
Matsumoto by decision
Matsumoto by decision because 8 of his 17 wins came on the cards and the likeliest path is owning rounds 2 and 3 on volume and takedowns. Almakhan has never been knocked out, so the grind tends to go long. Breaks if the guillotine shows up or the Kazakh's knockout comes early.
- 03
Vencedor azarão
Almakhan by KO/TKO
Almakhan by KO is the cleanest way the underdog wins: he has 10 KOs in 12 wins and the fight-ending timing that flattened Katona in a minute. The market pays well and the danger is real in round 1. Breaks if Matsumoto survives those opening five minutes and takes it to the mat.
- 04
Over/Under rounds
Fight goes past 1.5 rounds
Over 1.5 rounds because if Almakhan's early knockout doesn't come in the opening minutes, the fight tends to stretch: Matsumoto has never been finished and lives on the grind, and the Kazakh doesn't have the volume to solve it fast without the clean shot. Breaks in exactly the lightning-knockout scenario.
Most Likely Outcome
Jean Matsumoto by decision, moderate stake
It's the soundest read in the analysis: if the fight gets past round 1, the Brazilian has the volume, takedowns and chin to take over and close it on the cards. But conviction 6 means don't size it up, because Almakhan's power keeps the risk alive in those opening five minutes.
Stats That Matter
42%
Almakhan's takedown defense, against Matsumoto's 3 takedowns per 15 minutes
The hole that hands the ground game to the Brazilian
1.61
significant strikes per minute for Almakhan, against Matsumoto's 5.37
Volume too low to win rounds when the knockout doesn't come
ZERO
times Matsumoto has been finished or knocked out in 19 fights
His 2 losses were disputed split decisions
The Trap
Almakhan by early knockout
The public will see the 64-second knockout of Katona and the 10-KO record and bet Almakhan heavy by finish, assuming he flattens anyone. But Matsumoto isn't Katona standing still in the pocket: he's volume, takedowns and a chin that has never failed across 19 fights. The knockout risk is real in round 1, but betting it as the headline play ignores that if the fight gets past those opening five minutes, Almakhan's path basically dries up. He has no way to win on the cards.
The public will see the 64-second knockout of Katona and the 10-KO record and bet Almakhan heavy by finish, assuming he flattens anyone. But Matsumoto isn't Katona standing still in the pocket: he's volume, takedowns and a chin that has never failed across 19 fights. The knockout risk is real in round 1, but betting it as the headline play ignores that if the fight gets past those opening five minutes, Almakhan's path basically dries up. He has no way to win on the cards.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Bekzat "The Turan Warrior" Almakhan vs Jean Matsumoto | UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs Torres | June 27, 2026 | National Gymnastics Arena, Baku
Read the whole card, free
Drop your email and unlock every fight's breakdown on the card. No payment, no password.
- Every fight on the card, full breakdown
- Scenarios and the model's call for each fight
- Access to upcoming cards too
By continuing you agree to receive Coliseum updates and to our Privacy Policy. Opt out anytime.