July 25, 2026 · Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
Zaynukov
8-0-0
UFC DebutDagestan, Russia | 31 years old
Rzepecki
10-0-0
UFC DebutPiotrków Trybunalski, Poland | 24 years old
Somebody's 0 Has Got to Go
Zaynukov went 8-0 the hard way, through the UAE circuit and a record-setting Contender Series war. Rzepecki went 10-0 with nine finishes on the Polish scene. One of them leaves Abu Dhabi with a loss.
O PONTO QUE DECIDE
Two Unbeatens, Only One Tested
Eighteen wins, zero losses between them, and both men sell themselves as strikers. Zaynukov is the Nurmagomedov school's anomaly: a Dagestani who would rather trade, an IFMA Muay Thai world champion in 2015 and 2016 who didn't move to MMA until 2021. On the Contender Series he gave the most convincing answer a prospect can give: he ate a first-round knockdown from Lucas Caldas, didn't panic, and poured on 248 significant strikes, a lightweight record in the show's history, to sweep the cards 30-26. Rzepecki is the opposite on the map and on paper. A butcher by trade before fighting paid the bills, 24 years old, he built a 10-0 with nine finishes on the Polish circuit: first a submission run with four rear-naked chokes, then three straight knockouts that won and defended the FEN lightweight title. He owns a five-inch reach advantage over Zaynukov, a decade of kickboxing, and recent rounds in Ilia Topuria's camp. The problem: none of those ten wins came against anything close to the level the Dagestani just came through. The one time he stepped up half a rung, in Spain this April, the finish didn't come and he saw the scorecards for the first time.
Eighteen wins, zero losses between them, and both men sell themselves as strikers. Zaynukov is the Nurmagomedov school's anomaly: a Dagestani who would rather trade, an IFMA Muay Thai world champion in 2015 and 2016 who didn't move to MMA until 2021. On the Contender Series he gave the most convincing answer a prospect can give: he ate a first-round knockdown from Lucas Caldas, didn't panic, and poured on 248 significant strikes, a lightweight record in the show's history, to sweep the cards 30-26. Rzepecki is the opposite on the map and on paper. A butcher by trade before fighting paid the bills, 24 years old, he built a 10-0 with nine finishes on the Polish circuit: first a submission run with four rear-naked chokes, then three straight knockouts that won and defended the FEN lightweight title. He owns a five-inch reach advantage over Zaynukov, a decade of kickboxing, and recent rounds in Ilia Topuria's camp. The problem: none of those ten wins came against anything close to the level the Dagestani just came through. The one time he stepped up half a rung, in Spain this April, the finish didn't come and he saw the scorecards for the first time.
Truth A
Rzepecki has more ways to win: he knocks people out with his hands and his knees, he finishes off the back, he holds a five-inch reach edge, and he's seven years younger. And Zaynukov's chin has been touched: Caldas dropped him in round 1 of the Contender Series.
Truth B
A record is only as good as the men on the other side of it. Zaynukov proved his volume, cardio and recovery against tougher opposition than anyone on the Pole's resume. Rzepecki finds out his own ceiling the hard way, in Abu Dhabi, against favorite.
Tale of the Tape
Rzepecki is 7 years younger; Zaynukov came to MMA late after his Muay Thai career
Five inches of reach for the Pole, a rare gap between two men the same height
Current Form
Magomed Zaynukov
Contender Series. Got dropped in round 1, recomposed, and poured on 248 significant strikes, a DWCS lightweight record. A 30-26 sweep and a contract secured.
Unanimous DecisionClear decision over one of the more seasoned names on the UAE circuit, controlling the pace start to finish.
Unanimous DecisionFirst UAE Warriors appearance, three controlled rounds on the cards.
Unanimous DecisionHis last finish to date: pressure and punches for a first-round TKO on the Russian circuit.
TKO R1Broke his man down with volume for a second-round TKO.
TKO R2Eight for eight, with the last three going to the scorecards against the best competition he has faced. On the Contender Series he ate a first-round knockdown from Caldas, kept his cool, and answered with 248 significant strikes, a lightweight record in the show's history, sweeping the cards 30-26 across the board. Nine months later he debuts as favorite with the Nurmagomedov school machine behind him.
Damian Rzepecki
First decision of his career, in Spain, in a test outside FEN. Won clearly, but for the first time in ten fights the finish never appeared.
Unanimous DecisionFEN lightweight title defense, body-shot KO in round 2.
KO R2Won the vacant FEN lightweight title with a third-round KO, on his 23rd birthday.
KO R3Third-round knee KO, the first of three straight knockouts after his submission run.
KO R3Another second-round rear-naked choke, his fourth career RNC.
Sub R2Ten for ten, a FEN lightweight title won and defended by knockout, and a comfortable decision in Spain in April, the first time in his career the finish didn't come. The asterisk is the level: none of the ten men he beat comes close to the circuit Zaynukov just came through. At 24, with a five-inch reach edge and rounds in Ilia Topuria's recent camp, he arrives as a live underdog.
Level of Competition
Neither man has faced a single ranked opponent or UFC veteran, which is exactly why this pairing is so well made. The difference is the rung: Zaynukov came through the UAE Warriors circuit and the Contender Series, where he beat a Brazilian prospect at a record-setting pace, while Rzepecki's ten wins came on the Polish and European regional scene with the FEN title as the high-water mark. A clear, but not enormous, calibre edge for the Dagestani.
Statistical Comparison
Vitórias por Finalização (%)
Career percentage: 5 finishes in 8 wins for Zaynukov, 9 in 10 for Rzepecki, all against regional circuits
Finalizações no Primeiro Round
Zaynukov starts fast; Rzepecki breaks opponents down in rounds 2 and 3
Vitórias por KO/TKO
Vitórias por Submissão
Four rear-naked chokes and a necktie choke; Zaynukov has never finished a fight on the mat
Vitórias por Decisão
Zaynukov's last three all went to the cards, against the best level he has faced
Rounds Disputados na Carreira
The Pole has more cage minutes despite being 7 years younger; the Dagestani stacked three straight 15-minute fights
Zaynukov leads in 3 categories · Rzepecki leads in 3
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
The finish numbers tell two opposite stories. Rzepecki sits at a 90 percent finish rate across a two-phase career: five ground finishes, four by rear-naked choke, in the first half, then three straight knockouts in the run that won and defended the FEN lightweight title. Zaynukov's pattern is inverted: all five of his KOs came in his first five fights, against the weakest stretch of his ledger, and his last three, against his best opposition, all went to the cards. For the method read it's simple: the favorite builds wins over 15 minutes, the underdog needs a moment.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
There is no loss map for either man: 18 combined pro fights, 18 wins. With zero documented vulnerability patterns, the only clues live inside the wins: Zaynukov was dropped by Caldas in round 1 of the Contender Series before winning going away, and Rzepecki has never faced anyone with elite volume or pressure to stress-test his defense. On Saturday one of them leaves the zero behind, and an unbeaten fighter's first loss usually teaches more than the ten wins before it.
Skills Profile
Zaynukov
vs
Rzepecki
Striking em Distância
+1 Rzepecki
A five-inch reach edge and a decade of kickboxing give the Pole the long lane; Zaynukov has to cross that band to get to work.
Striking em Curta Distância
+2 Zaynukov
IFMA world-champion Muay Thai: clinch, knees and smothering volume. The 248 strikes on Caldas were built at mid and close range.
Poder de Nocaute
+1 Rzepecki
They combine for nine knockouts, but Rzepecki's came in his most recent fights, including a body-shot KO, while Zaynukov hasn't stopped anyone since March 2024.
Defesa de Striking
Even
Zaynukov was dropped by Caldas on the Contender Series; Rzepecki has never taken visible damage, but he's also never faced anything close to this volume.
Grappling e Clinch
Even
Four rear-naked chokes give Rzepecki the more proven finishing weapon; daily wrestling at the Nurmagomedov school and trip takedowns give Zaynukov control of where the fight happens.
Cardio (3 rounds)
+2 Zaynukov
Three straight 15-minute decisions at a high pace, with a stronger round 3 than round 1 on the Contender Series; Rzepecki has one career decision.
Rzepecki owns the tools of the opening minutes: reach, counters and a finish from every position. Zaynukov owns the engine, the clinch and the volume for every minute after that. The longer this goes, the more it tilts toward the Dagestani.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
The thesis is: Magomed Zaynukov wins because his output is already proven a level up, a DWCS lightweight record 248 significant strikes and a 30-26 sweep on the Contender Series, because the circuit he came through, UAE Warriors and the Contender Series, is a clear step above the Polish regional scene where Rzepecki built his 10-0, and because IFMA world-champion Muay Thai backed by daily wrestling at the Nurmagomedov school gives him a plan B the Pole has never needed to show.
The thesis is: Magomed Zaynukov wins because his output is already proven a level up, a DWCS lightweight record 248 significant strikes and a 30-26 sweep on the Contender Series, because the circuit he came through, UAE Warriors and the Contender Series, is a clear step above the Polish regional scene where Rzepecki built his 10-0, and because IFMA world-champion Muay Thai backed by daily wrestling at the Nurmagomedov school gives him a plan B the Pole has never needed to show.
The path is surviving the counters behind the 73.5-inch reach in round 1, closing distance with low kicks and clinch work, and drowning Rzepecki in volume through rounds 2 and 3 for a 29-28 or 30-27 card. It breaks down if Rzepecki lands clean early, Caldas already dropped Zaynukov with a single counter, or if the five-inch reach gap keeps the Dagestani on the end of the jab all night.
Conviction
Conviction 6 because the thesis crosses three independent dimensions: stats (the 248-strike Contender Series record), level of competition (the UAE Warriors and Contender Series circuit against the Polish regional scene) and style (elite Muay Thai with Nurmagomedov-school wrestling as a plan B, against a kickboxer who has never needed a plan B). It doesn't go past 6 because both men are unbeaten debutants, which multiplies the unknowns, because the knockdown against Caldas is a real data point against the favorite's chin, and because Rzepecki's five-inch reach edge is exactly the kind of physical equalizer that shrinks the gap between a regional underdog and a hard-circuit favorite.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
If Rzepecki controls range with the jab and the counter in round 1, refusing to give a free entry, the 73.5-inch reach becomes the script of the fight and the favorite's volume never gets installed.
- 02
If Zaynukov gets hurt again the way Caldas hurt him, the picture changes: Caldas didn't have the tools to finish, Rzepecki has nine finishes in ten wins and ends fights from every position.
- 03
If Zaynukov leans on takedowns and gives up his back in a transition, he walks straight into the Pole's four career rear-naked chokes.
- 04
If the Polish circuit is simply underrated and Rzepecki's power translates immediately against better opposition, the entire calibre thesis collapses.
Underdog Path
Rzepecki uses the reach to keep Zaynukov at the end of his punches in round 1 and waits for an entry with the head on the centerline to land the counter right hand, the same kind of shot Caldas used to drop the Dagestani on the Contender Series. With his man hurt, he doesn't let the window close: he finishes with strikes or takes the back in the scramble to stand, where his four rear-naked chokes live. Plan B is winning round 1 at range, frustrating the favorite, and betting that the urgency to win rounds back opens new counter windows in rounds 2 and 3.
Required Conditions
- Keep the fight in the long jab band early and deny free entries into the clinch
- Land the counter on Zaynukov's way in, the same window where Caldas dropped him
- Finish on top of a hurt opponent instead of letting the window close, which Caldas couldn't do
- If the fight hits the clinch or the mat, escape bad positions fast and hunt the back off the first mistake
— Precedent: No direct precedent on either ledger, but the map exists on tape: Lucas Caldas, without the Pole's power or submission game, dropped Zaynukov in round 1 of the Contender Series in October 2025 and nearly changed the night. Rzepecki carries the tools the Brazilian lacked.
Verdict
Winner
Magomed Zaynukov
Method
Unanimous Decision
Most Likely
- 01
Winner
Magomed Zaynukov
The right favorite at a loaded price for a debut against another unbeaten with real reach and power. he works as a parlay anchor, not a straight play. Breaks if the Pole's counter finds the chin Caldas already touched.
- 02
Método
Zaynukov by decision
The favorite's most likely route: three straight decisions against the best level he has faced, an opponent who has never been finished, and volume built to win rounds, not stop fights. Check the line at your book first; it usually pays far better than the bare moneyline. Breaks if the level jump cracks Rzepecki late.
- 03
Vencedor azarão
Rzepecki by KO/TKO
The underdog value play: a 73.5-inch reach, a counter-first game and a favorite who has already been dropped on the Contender Series. It's a minority scenario, but it's the underdog's most concrete path and the line should pay fat. Breaks if Zaynukov closes distance without eating the clean one.
Most Likely Outcome
Zaynukov by decision, light stake
The calibre read and the pattern of his last three fights point to the same place: volume, scorecards, and the Dagestani's hand raised. Conviction 6 and two debutants in the cage means a light stake, no heroics.
Stats That Matter
248
significant strikes landed in his Contender Series win, a DWCS lightweight record
Output nobody on Rzepecki's resume has come close to producing or absorbing
5 in
of reach advantage for Rzepecki (73.5 to 68.5 inches)
The weapon that keeps the underdog alive in the opening minutes
NEVER
has Rzepecki fought anyone above the European regional circuit
All ten wins and all nine finishes came against FEN, AFL and WOW opposition
The Trap
Zaynukov by knockout
The public will see the Muay Thai world champion with five KOs in eight wins, four of them in round 1, and rush the favorite inside the distance. The recent pattern says otherwise: in his three fights against the best level of his career, zero finishes, including 248 strikes landed on Caldas without a stoppage. Rzepecki has never been finished, never even close, and has the chin, frame and youth to last. If the favorite wins, it comes on the cards.
The public will see the Muay Thai world champion with five KOs in eight wins, four of them in round 1, and rush the favorite inside the distance. The recent pattern says otherwise: in his three fights against the best level of his career, zero finishes, including 248 strikes landed on Caldas without a stoppage. Rzepecki has never been finished, never even close, and has the chin, frame and youth to last. If the favorite wins, it comes on the cards.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Magomed "Wild Chanco" Zaynukov vs Damian "The Butcher" Rzepecki | UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov | July 25, 2026 | Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
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