UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs Murphy • Featherweight (145 lbs) • 3 Rounds
March 21, 2026
Wood
22-6-0
Keita
16-1-0
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes Per Minute
Wood is a machine gun on the feet, nearly 6 significant strikes per minute
Striking Accuracy (%)
Keita lands with more precision, a reflection of his boxing background
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Keita absorbs fewer shots, indicating superior movement
Strike Defense (%)
Takedowns Per 15 Min
Wood has a more solid grappling background and uses takedowns to control
Takedown Accuracy (%)
Wood has elite takedown accuracy, lands nearly 3 out of every 4 attempts
Takedown Defense (%)
Wood leads in 4 categories · Keita leads in 3
Tale of the Tape
Keita is 4 years younger
Keita has an 8cm height advantage
Fight History
Safe points win at UFC 321, maintained 3-fight win streak.
Unanimous DecisionBeat the Frenchman in his own backyard at UFC Paris, showing maturity and tactical control.
Unanimous DecisionWin at UFC 304 in Manchester, maintained high pace for 3 rounds in front of the English crowd.
Unanimous DecisionPoints loss at UFC 294 in Abu Dhabi, Naimov controlled with clinch and ground control.
Unanimous DecisionSolid points win at UFC London against a division veteran.
Unanimous DecisionUFC debut canceled for weighing 149lbs, 3 pounds over the limit. Discipline red flag.
Canceled (missed weight)Won the Oktagon lightweight tournament and title. Triple crown: 2x lightweight + featherweight.
TKO R3Oktagon tournament semifinal, calculated points win against the Pole.
Unanimous DecisionDevastating knockout in the Oktagon tournament quarterfinals.
KO R2Dethroned the dual champion Buchinger in the first round to capture the title.
TKO R1Skills Profile
Stand-up Striking
EvenWood has absurd volume at 5.75 SLpM. Keita has 10 career KOs and superior precision. Elite-level striking matchup.
Knockout Power
KeitaKeita has 10 KOs in 16 wins (63%), including knockouts against Oktagon champions. Wood has 8 KOs but against inferior opposition.
Wrestling & Grappling
WoodWood has 73% takedown accuracy and 5 career submissions. Keita is primarily a striker with little offensive grappling.
Overall Defense
WoodWood has 72% takedown defense and more defensive experience. Keita has never been tested by an elite grappler.
Cardio & Pace
WoodWood maintains a high pace for 3 full rounds, his last 3 wins were all unanimous decisions.
Octagon Experience
WoodWood has 13 UFC fights (10W-3L) and has faced top 15 opponents. Keita has never fought in the octagon, his debut was canceled.
Wood is the more complete and experienced fighter, with clear advantages in grappling, cardio, and octagon maturity. Keita brings explosive knockout power and the confidence of an undefeated champion, but the transition from Oktagon to UFC is a massive leap. The key is whether Keita can land clean in the first two rounds before Wood's cardio takes over.
Win Distribution
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Opposite profiles in how they win. Wood is well-distributed between decision (41%), KO (36%), and submission (23%), showing total versatility. Keita relies on power with 63% knockouts and zero submissions, but also knows how to score with 37% decisions. If the fight goes the distance, it favors Wood. If Keita connects early, it could end fast.
Final Prediction
Vencedor Previsto
Wood
Unanimous Decision|Confidence MEDIUM
Nathaniel Wood fights at home in London with 3 consecutive wins and 13 fights of octagon experience. Keita is talented and dangerous, but has never stepped inside the UFC cage and lost his only chance to debut by missing weight. The pressure of debuting in hostile territory, combined with Wood's relentless pace and superior grappling, should be decisive factors. However, Keita's power is real and Wood has shown vulnerability against heavy strikers.
X-Factor
London and Wood's home crowd
Wood has never lost at home in England in the UFC. The O2 Arena energy will push the Brit, especially in the late rounds when cardio can make the difference.
Upset Alert
Keita has the power to shut anyone's lights off
With 10 KOs in 16 wins, including knockouts against Oktagon champions, Keita can end the fight with a single shot. If Wood underestimates the Belgian's power and trades openly, he could be surprised.
UFC NEWS HUB - Preliminary Analysis
Wood vs Keita | UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs Murphy | Featherweight (145 lbs)