Volkanovski vs Evloev

The key to the fight

THE DECIDING POINT

Getting Up Isn't Enough

Evloev has never lost, and that's real. But look at how he beat the last two strikers he faced: Allen and Murphy both finished ahead on the strike count. Both times, the takedowns won it on the cards. Against Murphy he landed 9 takedowns for just 3:54 of control.

In rounds 3 and 4 Murphy got up fast; in round 5 Evloev banked 2:12 of control and took his back. And Evloev didn't even try one in the first 10 minutes. That's why this isn't just wrestler versus striker. Murphy lost round 3 on all three cards after giving up just 23 seconds of control: getting up fast wasn't enough.

Stuffing shots isn't enough on its own either. In round 1 at UFC 297, Allen stopped 7 of 9 attempts, trailed 13 to 12 on the strike count and still lost the round on all three cards. Volkanovski needs both: stuff most of the shots and win the striking by a margin neither of those two had over a full fight.

The risk on the other side is age. At 38, having hit the canvas in four straight fights, Volkanovski needs his body to answer the tenth takedown attempt the way it answered the first.

Tale of the Tape

Current form

Level of competition

Their one common opponent is Diego Lopes. Evloev beat him on the cards at UFC 288 in 2023, in Lopes' UFC debut, banking 8:30 of control but having to survive 4 submission attempts. Volkanovski beat Lopes twice over five rounds, in 2025 and 2026, on the feet.

A common opponent proves nothing about who's better; it just shows both men beat different versions of the same guy in opposite ways. Before the UFC, Evloev held the M-1 bantamweight title in Russia, while Volkanovski had 14 fights on the Australian and Guam regional circuit.

Stats

How they win and lose

Volkanovski wins every way: 13 knockouts, 12 decisions and 3 submissions. Evloev is a scorecard winner: 13 of his 20 wins went the distance, and all 10 in the UFC. His 3 knockouts and 4 submissions (all rear-naked chokes) came in M-1 between 2014 and 2018. That says a lot about the method: if the challenger takes the belt, the cards are the likeliest route.

Three of Volkanovski's four losses came by knockout: Corey Nelson in 2013 at welterweight, then the two recent ones, Makhachev with a head kick and Topuria with a right hand. His lone decision loss was to Makhachev at lightweight, the closest thing on his record to what Evloev is trying to do. Evloev has no losses, which doesn't mean he has no holes. It means nobody has found one yet.

Skills

• 1. Long-Range StrikingEdge: Volkanovski (3/5)

  Volume, leg kicks and footwork. Allen and Murphy both finished ahead of Evloev on the strike count.

• 2. Volume and PaceEdge: Volkanovski (2/5)

  5.99 strikes a minute to 3.91, and a champion who sped up late against Lopes.

• 3. Offensive WrestlingEdge: Evloev (3/5)

  4.78 takedowns per 15 minutes, 51 of 97. The single best weapon in this fight.

• 4. Scrambles and GetupsEven

  The champ spent just 1.18% of his time on his back through 2023; Evloev beat Sterling in the scrambles. Both get up well.

• 5. Recent DurabilityEdge: Evloev (2/5)

  The champ has hit the canvas in four straight fights; Evloev has never been stopped. But Evloev has no UFC knockdowns.

• 6. Five-Round ExperienceEdge: Volkanovski (3/5)

  Seven full 25-minute UFC fights, six of them wins, against one for the challenger.

Evloev owns the clearest weapon in the fight: the takedown. Volkanovski owns almost everything else, on the feet and over five rounds. Where those two meet is the whole fight: how many shots the champ stuffs, and how much he wins on the feet in the rounds where one lands.

Full prediction

The thesis

Volkanovski wins by decision because he has the tools to stuff a good share of Evloev's takedowns and because, on the feet, he can build a far bigger margin than the strikers Evloev has beaten. Defensively, he stops 69% of takedowns in the UFC.

That rate has slipped (77.8% in 2023) and the nearer tests went worse: Makhachev landed 4 of 9 at lightweight, Lopes 2 of 5 in January. Darren Elkins' 1 of 6 dates back to 2018. Stuffing shots matters because Evloev lost round 3 to Allen when he landed 1 of 6: Allen won the exchanges 29 to 17.

On the feet, the margin has to be big. Against Lopes, over five rounds, the champ won the count 158 to 63 and 98 to 70; if he gets anywhere near that, even a round with a short takedown can go his way.

How sure we are

It's a lean, not a lock. It rests on two things nobody has seen against Evloev: a 38-year-old champion stuffing most of an elite wrestler's takedowns over five rounds, and building a big standing edge against a wrestler who'll keep shooting.

And since 2023, Volkanovski hasn't faced another elite wrestler to prove he's closed that door. A decision is the likeliest finish; the serious alternative is a late stoppage by the champion, with a tired Evloev forced into exchanges he doesn't want.

What breaks the thesis

1. Evloev's takedowns landing in rounds where Volkanovski hasn't built a clear edge on the feet yet.
2. Volkanovski abandoning the leg kicks and spending rounds with his back on the fence, defending shots instead of striking.
3. Volkanovski's pace dropping in round 3, with slower exits off the fence, before his volume has built a lead on the cards.

The underdog's path

Evloev shoots from the opening minute, mixes in the jab, the overhand and body shots, and lands one or two takedowns a round, even if the champ pops right back up. On the feet he only has to keep it close; the scorecards do the rest, the way they did against Allen and Murphy.

• Shoot from the opening minute, not only from round 3 on like against Murphy
• Win the scrambles, like against Sterling, if the champion goes for his own takedowns
• Avoid long exchanges at the champion's range