Veretennikov vs Williams

The key to the fight

THE X-FACTOR

The Most Durable Chin in the Division Meets the Best Accuracy of the UFC Newcomers.

Khaos Williams has NEVER been knocked out in 20 pro fights. His four Performance of the Night bonuses — Morono in 27 seconds, Razak Alhassan in round 1, Baeza in round 3, Carlston Harris in May 2024 with a thudding right hand — all came with him pressing forward and letting his hands go in the pocket.

The problem: 41% striking defense and 5.39 sig strikes absorbed per minute is a negative differential.

He takes shots to land shots, and his two most recent losses caught up with him for it — UD to Andreas Gustafsson in June 2025 (clinch grinding, three rounds of pressure) and a D'Arce choke submission from Gabriel Bonfim in February 2025 (first time Williams has been finished in his entire career).

Veretennikov comes in from the other side of the equation. The 36-year-old Ukrainian-born sambo specialist trains at Kings MMA in Orange County, and he's coming off a highlight-reel TKO of Niko Price (R1 1:42, overhand right + knee + elbow, $25K bonus) at UFC Vegas 113 in February 2026.

His game is surgical — 2.69 SLpM landed at 57% accuracy and 10 career knockouts.

Where Veretennikov has cracked: TKO loss to Austin Vanderford in Feb 2025 when the opponent wrestled, and a 30-27 sweep loss to Punahele Soriano in October 2025 who landed a takedown in the first minute and ground-and-pounded for three rounds.

Williams doesn't wrestle (0 takedown attempts in his UFC career), which takes Veretennikov's Achilles heel off the table. This is a 15-minute kickboxing match between a volume striker with a granite chin and a sniper coming off the most dangerous KO of his year.

Tale of the Tape

Current form

Level of competition

No common opponents between Veretennikov and Williams. Calibre-wise they line up — both have been swimming in the unranked tier of welterweight. Veretennikov has 5 UFC fights at 2W-3L (Vanderford L, Prado W, Soriano L, Price W, with the immediate pre-UFC Barlow loss).

Williams sits at 6W-4L in 10 UFC fights with Performance bonuses over Morono, Razak Alhassan, Baeza, and Harris, and two decisive losses (SD to Randy Brown in 2022, UD to Gustafsson in 2025).

Worth noting: Williams faced Randy Brown in 2022, who would later become a top-15 welterweight — Veretennikov has not faced a top-15 opponent yet. Williams' ceiling of opponent quality historically sits higher.

Stats

How they win and lose

Both finishing rates skew heavily to the knockout. Veretennikov 71% of wins by KO/TKO (10 of 14), Williams 53% (8 of 15). Veretennikov is the bigger career finisher, but most of those KOs came pre-UFC — only one stoppage in the promotion so far (the Price TKO in Feb 2026).

Williams has four Performance of the Night bonuses inside the UFC and a wider distribution — six career decisions on the books. The read: if this goes the distance, Williams has more decision experience to lean on; if it ends early, both have the power to make it happen.

The loss column tells the real story. Williams has NEVER been knocked out in 20 pro fights (zero KO losses), was only finished once in his career (Bonfim D'Arce in Feb 2025 — first finish ever), and everything else he loses, he loses by decision (four of five). It's a granite chin nobody has cracked.

Veretennikov has 2 KO losses (29% of losses), including the TKO to Vanderford in Feb 2025, and 57% of his losses come by decision (four of seven) — usually in rounds where the opponent wrestled. The pattern: Williams loses to wrestling, clinch, and grappling, NOT to striking.

Veretennikov loses to wrestling AND occasionally to opponents who hit hard first. Important caveat: Williams' chin has never been tested against a 57% accuracy sniper, and Veretennikov's chin has never been tested against the volume that's about to come at him.

Skills

• 1. Striking VolumeEdge: Williams (4/5)

  Williams 4.94 SLpM vs 2.69 from Veretennikov — almost 2x. His offensive identity.

• 2. Striking AccuracyEdge: Veretennikov (3/5)

  Veretennikov 57% vs Williams 39%. Veretennikov hits a much higher % of what he throws.

• 3. Knockout PowerEven

  Williams 8 (T)KOs + 4 Performance bonuses. Veretennikov 10 career KOs + the recent Price TKO. Both put guys out.

• 4. Striking DefenseEdge: Veretennikov (1/5)

  Veretennikov 45% vs Williams 41%. Marginal — both eat damage. Veretennikov slightly better.

• 5. Offensive WrestlingEdge: Veretennikov (2/5)

  Veretennikov sambo base, 0.42 TD/15min. Williams ZERO offensive TDs in UFC. But Veretennikov only 17% accuracy.

• 6. Chin / DurabilityEdge: Williams (3/5)

  Williams has NEVER been knocked out in 20 pro fights. Veretennikov has 2 KO losses including the Vanderford TKO in Feb 2025.

Williams owns striking volume and the more durable chin. Veretennikov owns far better accuracy, sambo base he won't use against a guy who doesn't shoot, and gives up 3 inches of reach. The matchup boils down to one question: does Veretennikov's 57% accuracy crack Williams' granite chin for the first time in 20 fights, or does Williams stack volume and bank the cards?

Full prediction

The thesis

The thesis: Williams wins because, first, he has NEVER been knocked out in 20 pro fights (zero KO losses, per UFC.com profile and Verdict MMA breakdown) — a granite chin that takes him to the 15-minute mark.

Second, he lands 4.94 SLpM against Veretennikov's 2.69 — almost double the raw volume, and in close cards volume beats accuracy when there's no wrestling to balance it.

Third, his last two losses came in areas Veretennikov DOESN'T attack — Bonfim's BJJ and Gustafsson's clinch — and the Ukrainian is a stand-up fighter who walks in to trade.

Path: Williams works his jab from the 3-inch reach edge, controls distance, banks volume at his pace, steps out before Veretennikov's overhand, and closes 29-28 cards in rounds 2 and 3.

Falls apart if Veretennikov plants his feet first and lands the overhand-knee-elbow combination the same way he did against Niko Price in Feb 2026.

Conviction 6 (not 7) because three dimensions favor Williams (chin, volume, gameplan compatibility), but (1) Veretennikov's 57% accuracy is genuinely high — the best Williams has ever faced — and clean shots land with disproportionate weight in a striker-vs-striker matchup; (2) Williams is coming off 11 months out and a two-fight skid, ring rust + dented confidence are real; (3) Williams' 41% striking defense is a literal open door for the big shot, and Veretennikov is in KO form coming off the Price TKO.

The / line reflects this proximity well — it's the kind of fight where the underdog has real value as the contrarian play.

What breaks the thesis

1. Veretennikov lands the overhand cross in the first two rounds and cracks Williams' chin for the first time
2. 11 months of ring rust kills Williams' cardio and he gives away the entire R3
3. Veretennikov surprises with sambo in the clinch and drags Williams down the way Soriano did to him in Oct 2025 (unlikely but possible)
4. Williams walks in without the jab and eats counters for 15 straight minutes

The underdog's path

Veretennikov has a real, clean path. Plant the feet in the center of the cage, let Williams come in first (Williams is volume + power = he walks in with his hands going), eat one or two jabs on the way in, and land the overhand right the same way he caught Niko Price in Feb 2026 when Price also walked in. Follow with a knee as Williams falls forward and an elbow with him pinned against the cage. That's the literal template of the Price TKO at R1 1:42. Plan B (decision): if Williams survives the early counter, Veretennikov works a measured jab, leans on the 57% accuracy, lands heavier individual shots at key moments, and banks 2 of 3 rounds on tight 29-28 cards even with lower volume — accuracy and clear damage covering the gap.

• Set the feet in the center, don't retreat (Williams punishes backward movement)
• Land 1-2 clean connections per round even while absorbing volume
• Avoid the clinch (where Gustafsson trapped Williams — but also where Williams smothers)
• Cardio holds over 15 minutes of high-intensity striking at 36 years old