September 19, 2026 · Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, United States
Vera
23-12-1
#10 BantamweightChone, Ecuador | 33 years old
Jourdain
18-8-1
UnrankedQuebec, Canada | 30 years old
Chito's Running Out of Clock
Never finished, but he's dropped four straight on the cards by starting slow. Across the cage: a Canadian who lands 5.36 significant strikes a minute and asked for this fight with no takedowns, mano a mano.
Conviction
Conviction 6. What props up Jourdain is concrete and recent: Vera lost the first round in each of his last three fights against three different looks — Figueiredo's takedowns, Zahabi's boxing, Martinez's speed — which says the problem is Vera's output, not the opponent, and Jourdain is a volume fighter who doesn't need takedowns to win rounds. Jourdain also has the shorter road: he needs two rounds and usually wins the first; Vera needs to start unlike anything he's shown since 2024 and still take two rounds, which he didn't do on a majority of cards in any of his last three. What pulls conviction down is strength of schedule: Vera's numbers were built against the champion at the time and three fighters now in the top 10, well above anyone Jourdain has faced, and his last two losses came down to a single round. Since Vera has never been finished, this should be settled on tight scorecards, where one Vera knockdown flips the fight. The 36% on the underdog reflects that margin.
Conviction 6. What props up Jourdain is concrete and recent: Vera lost the first round in each of his last three fights against three different looks — Figueiredo's takedowns, Zahabi's boxing, Martinez's speed — which says the problem is Vera's output, not the opponent, and Jourdain is a volume fighter who doesn't need takedowns to win rounds. Jourdain also has the shorter road: he needs two rounds and usually wins the first; Vera needs to start unlike anything he's shown since 2024 and still take two rounds, which he didn't do on a majority of cards in any of his last three. What pulls conviction down is strength of schedule: Vera's numbers were built against the champion at the time and three fighters now in the top 10, well above anyone Jourdain has faced, and his last two losses came down to a single round. Since Vera has never been finished, this should be settled on tight scorecards, where one Vera knockdown flips the fight. The 36% on the underdog reflects that margin.
THE DECIDING POINT
Three Rounds Won't Wait for Chito
Marlon Vera has never been finished in 36 pro fights, and his last two losses came down to one round on every scorecard, against two guys who now sit No. 7 and No. 8 in the division. He's still a tough out. The problem is when he starts fighting. In round 1 of his last three fights he landed 5, 11 and 8 significant strikes, and the judges gave the opening round to his opponent on 8 of 9 cards. Across those three fights, he won just 9 of 27 scored rounds. In a three-rounder, spotting your opponent the first frame is half a loss. Charles Jourdain is built to cash in on that. He lands 5.36 significant strikes per minute, outlanded all three of his bantamweight opponents, and against Kyler Phillips he took rounds 2 and 3 and finished up 58-36 despite giving up seven takedowns. And the Canadian's known hole, 46% takedown defense, likely stays out of this one: Vera hasn't attempted a single takedown in his last 45 minutes in the cage. After his last win, Jourdain asked for this fight on his own terms: no takedowns, mano a mano. Vera said it himself in September: "I'm not throwing enough. Yes, it's me." He left Jason Parillo, his head coach since 2018, for Raul Rosas Jr.'s team. The question of the night is whether a new corner can turn a slow-starting 33-year-old into a guy who wins round 1. If it can't, the talent that's still there shows up too late.
Marlon Vera has never been finished in 36 pro fights, and his last two losses came down to one round on every scorecard, against two guys who now sit No. 7 and No. 8 in the division. He's still a tough out. The problem is when he starts fighting. In round 1 of his last three fights he landed 5, 11 and 8 significant strikes, and the judges gave the opening round to his opponent on 8 of 9 cards. Across those three fights, he won just 9 of 27 scored rounds. In a three-rounder, spotting your opponent the first frame is half a loss. Charles Jourdain is built to cash in on that. He lands 5.36 significant strikes per minute, outlanded all three of his bantamweight opponents, and against Kyler Phillips he took rounds 2 and 3 and finished up 58-36 despite giving up seven takedowns. And the Canadian's known hole, 46% takedown defense, likely stays out of this one: Vera hasn't attempted a single takedown in his last 45 minutes in the cage. After his last win, Jourdain asked for this fight on his own terms: no takedowns, mano a mano. Vera said it himself in September: "I'm not throwing enough. Yes, it's me." He left Jason Parillo, his head coach since 2018, for Raul Rosas Jr.'s team. The question of the night is whether a new corner can turn a slow-starting 33-year-old into a guy who wins round 1. If it can't, the talent that's still there shows up too late.
Truth A
Vera isn't done. His four straight losses came against the champion at the time and three fighters who now sit No. 7 through No. 9, two of them decided by a single round on every card, one with a Vera knockdown. Jourdain has never faced a ranked bantamweight.
Truth B
But he hasn't won in three years, he lost round 1 on 8 of 9 cards over his last three, and he never threatens the takedown that has been Jourdain's most-exploited hole. Against a guy landing 5.36 strikes a minute from the opening bell, waking up in round 3 means losing 29-28.
Tale of the Tape
Jourdain is 3 years younger
Vera has a 1.5-inch reach edge
Vera left Jason Parillo, his head coach since 2018, ahead of this fight
Current Form
Marlon Vera
Co-main event in Mexico City. Landed just five strikes in round 1, gave up two takedowns and dropped the first two rounds to Martinez's speed. Took round 3 on all three cards — too little, too late.
Unanimous DecisionDropped Zahabi in round 2 and won one card, but lost rounds 1 and 3 on volume, 81-56 in significant strikes. Walked out saying he got robbed; most of the media had it for Zahabi.
Split DecisionGave up two takedowns in round 1, won round 2 on the feet, then got dropped by a counter right in round 3 — the first knockdown he ever suffered in the UFC.
Unanimous DecisionTitle shot at UFC 299. Got outworked over five rounds: 230 significant strikes for O'Malley to Vera's 89.
Unanimous DecisionUFC 292. Won the striking battle 141-113 in significant strikes. It's still the last win of his career.
Unanimous DecisionFour straight losses, all on the scorecards, and no wins since August 2023. He isn't washed: his last two were decided by a single round on every card, against two guys who now sit in the top 10. But Vera diagnosed it himself in September — "I'm not throwing enough. Yes, it's me" — and he left Jason Parillo, his head coach since 2018, for Raul Rosas Jr.'s team ahead of this fight. He's calling UFC 331 life or death, and a fifth straight loss could put his roster spot in question.
Charles Jourdain
Gave up seven takedowns and more than seven minutes on his back, but took rounds 2 and 3 on the feet with knees and body work. Finished up 58-36 in significant strikes and split Phillips' left eye with a flying knee.
Unanimous DecisionDropped the veteran with a flying knee, went to work on the ground and locked up the guillotine at 3:05 of round 1.
Sub R1Bantamweight debut. Gave up four takedowns and his back, escaped, and cinched a standing guillotine at 3:43 of round 2.
Sub R2UFC 303, against a Silva who missed weight. Dropped in round 1, then put out by an uppercut at 1:22 of round 2. The loss that sent him down to 135.
KO R2UFC 297 in Toronto. Lost the volume battle to Woodson, 80-60 in significant strikes, on a split.
Split DecisionThree straight wins since dropping to bantamweight: two guillotines and a decision over Kyler Phillips. He's made weight all three times and says he's a bigger, better-prepared fighter at 135. After his last win he called out Vera on Instagram: no takedowns, mano a mano. The catch is the resume. None of those three opponents was ranked, and Jourdain himself admitted the Phillips fight showed he can be controlled when he gets sloppy.
Level of Competition
Two common opponents. Davey Grant beat Vera in 2016 and lost the rematch in 2021; Jourdain submitted Grant in round 1 in 2025. Andre Ewell got stopped by Vera in 2019 and lost a decision to Jourdain in 2021. The real gap is everywhere else on the schedule: over his last five, Vera faced the champion at the time and four ranked opponents, three of whom now sit between No. 7 and No. 9. Jourdain has yet to face a ranked bantamweight.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes per Minute
Jourdain lands 28% more strikes per minute
Striking Accuracy (%)
Strikes Absorbed per Minute
Vera is a lot easier to hit
Striking Defense (%)
Takedowns per 15 Min
Takedown Accuracy (%)
Takedown Defense (%)
Jourdain's hole, but Vera hasn't attempted a takedown in his last three fights
Submissions per 15 Min
Vera leads in 4 categories · Jourdain leads in 4
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
On paper, both men are finishers: Vera has 18 wins inside the distance out of 23 (8 KOs, 10 submissions), Jourdain 15 of 18 (8 KOs, 7 submissions). The difference is the calendar. Vera's last finish was the head kick on Dominick Cruz in August 2022, and he hasn't won at all since August 2023. Jourdain finished two of his three bantamweight opponents, both by guillotine, but both came out of scrambles, a scenario Vera rarely hands over because he doesn't shoot.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
This is where the method lives. Vera has 36 pro fights and has never been finished: all 12 losses went to the judges, including the four straight to O'Malley, Figueiredo, Zahabi and Martinez, and he's been dropped just once in the UFC. Jourdain has lost 6 of 8 on the cards, with one knockout (Jean Silva, 2024, before his drop to 135) and one submission (Julian Erosa, 2021). His finish-loss sample is small, and he hasn't lost at bantamweight. Bottom line: a decision is the likeliest ending no matter who wins, because Vera doesn't go down and Jourdain rarely gets submitted.
Skills Profile
Vera
vs
Jourdain
Striking at Range
+2 Jourdain
Jourdain lands 5.36 strikes per minute to Vera's 4.18, and Vera landed just 5, 11 and 8 in round 1 of his last three fights.
Close-Range Striking
+1 Jourdain
Clinch knees and flying knees are Jourdain's signature: he landed 17 of 18 clinch strikes against Phillips.
Knockout Power
Even
Knockdown averages are nearly identical, 0.55 for Vera and 0.54 for Jourdain, with eight career KOs apiece.
Striking Defense
+2 Jourdain
Vera absorbs 5.34 strikes per minute with 50% defense; Jourdain absorbs 4.11 with 56%.
Grappling & Clinch
+2 Vera
Vera has 71% takedown defense and has never been submitted; Jourdain stops just 46% of takedowns. The catch: Vera hasn't tried a takedown in three fights.
Cardio (3 Rounds)
Even
Both finish strong: Vera took round 3 from Martinez on all three cards and Jourdain turned Phillips around in rounds 2 and 3. Vera's problem is the start, not the gas tank.
Jourdain has the edge where the fight begins: volume, pace and round 1. Vera has the ground game and the durability of a man who's never been finished, but that grappling only matters if he goes looking for takedowns, and he hasn't in three fights.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
Conviction6/10The thesis is: Charles Jourdain wins because he carries the exact weapon that has been beating Vera, volume from the opening bell, with 5.36 significant strikes per minute and more strikes landed than all three of his bantamweight opponents; because Vera's losing script is still very much alive across 2024, 2025 and 2026, with 5, 11 and 8 strikes landed in round 1 of his last three fights, the opening round lost on 8 of 9 scorecards, and his own September admission that he isn't throwing enough; and because Jourdain's biggest hole, 46% takedown defense, stays out of this fight against a Vera who hasn't attempted a single takedown in his last 45 minutes of cage time.
The thesis is: Charles Jourdain wins because he carries the exact weapon that has been beating Vera, volume from the opening bell, with 5.36 significant strikes per minute and more strikes landed than all three of his bantamweight opponents; because Vera's losing script is still very much alive across 2024, 2025 and 2026, with 5, 11 and 8 strikes landed in round 1 of his last three fights, the opening round lost on 8 of 9 scorecards, and his own September admission that he isn't throwing enough; and because Jourdain's biggest hole, 46% takedown defense, stays out of this fight against a Vera who hasn't attempted a single takedown in his last 45 minutes of cage time.
The path is Jourdain winning round 1 on pace with body kicks and knees, weathering Vera's push in round 2 without getting dropped, and closing round 3 on volume for a 29-28 or 30-27 decision. It breaks down if Vera, with his new corner, comes out throwing from the jump and punishes Jourdain's reckless entries with counters, the way he dropped Zahabi in round 2 back in October 2025.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
If Vera wins round 1 on volume, with 15 or more significant strikes, the core of this thesis is gone and it becomes a late-rounds fight, where he's dangerous.
- 02
If Jourdain gets dropped on a reckless entry, Vera banks a full round with one shot and only needs one more.
- 03
If Vera, with his new wrestling coaches, shoots and finishes takedowns early, Jourdain's 46% hole comes into play and the veteran's grappling starts to count.
- 04
If Jourdain burns round 1 hunting a guillotine and ends up under a Vera who's never been submitted, he loses the round the thesis hands him.
Underdog Path
Vera breaks his own pattern and wins round 1: with the new corner, he's throwing body and leg kicks from the start instead of waiting. Jourdain comes in wild with flying knees and spinning kicks, and Vera times the counter right or the front kick on the entry and drops him, the way he dropped Zahabi. With a knockdown round in the second and the late surge he usually finds, he takes it 29-28. And if Jourdain chases a guillotine in a scramble, Vera, a grappler who's never been finished, ends up on top and scores from there.
Required Conditions
- Double his recent round-1 output (5, 11 and 8 significant strikes in his last three fights) and not hand over the opening round
- Counter Jourdain's entries: the Canadian absorbs 4.11 strikes per minute and has been dropped four times in the UFC
- Win one round clearly with a knockdown, like round 2 against Zahabi
- Survive the guillotine attempts in scrambles and turn each one into top position
— Precedent: Vera vs Zahabi (October 2025): against today's No. 7 bantamweight, Vera scored a round-2 knockdown and won one of three cards; he lost because he gave away round 1 with just 11 strikes landed. And Jean Silva vs Jourdain (June 2024) showed the Canadian goes down when he walks in trading: Silva dropped him once in each round.
Verdict
Winner
Charles Jourdain
Method
Decision
Most Likely
- 01
Winner
Charles Jourdain
Jourdain because his volume, 5.36 strikes per minute, attacks the flaw that has cost Vera his recent fights: he lost round 1 on 8 of 9 cards across his last three. The market isn't wrong here. The line opened and has climbed, pricing in more than our 62%. Right read, expensive price, small stake. Breaks if Vera wins the first round.
- 02
How It Ends (Either Fighter)
Fight goes to decision
Decision because Vera has never been finished in 36 fights and his last four all went the distance, and because Jourdain's guillotines feed on scrambles that a Vera who never shoots rarely gives him. We have the cards at roughly 83%, so there's only value if the line pays better than. Books tend to overweight the finish when a favorite rides in off two guillotines. Breaks if Jourdain gets dropped on an entry.
- 03
Method
Jourdain by decision
Jourdain by decision because it's the single likeliest outcome in our simulation, around 55%: the round 1 Vera keeps handing over, plus the durability of a man who's never been stopped. Anything better than is value. Breaks if Vera steals a round with a knockdown.
- 04
Underdog Winner
Marlon Vera
Vera because implies 33% and we have him at 36%: he lost his last two by a single round to better opponents than anyone Jourdain has faced, and the Canadian has been dropped four times in the UFC. The market is punishing the losing streak more than the quality of those losses. Thin edge, minimum stake. Breaks if he gives away round 1 again.
Most Likely Outcome
Fight goes to decision, if the line pays better than
It's the firmest read in this breakdown, firmer than the winner: Vera has never been finished, and Jourdain's guillotines need scrambles Vera rarely offers. On the moneyline, already eats Jourdain's edge, and conviction 6 doesn't justify sizing up.
Stats That Matter
12 of 12
of Vera's career losses came by decision
36 pro fights and never finished: whoever wins, the cards are the likeliest ending
58
significant strikes landed by Jourdain to Phillips' 36, despite giving up seven takedowns and 7+ minutes on his back
His volume shows up even when the fight isn't going his way
4
knockdowns Jourdain has absorbed in the UFC, two of them against Jean Silva
That's the underdog's door: Vera's counter on the Canadian's entries
The Trap
Jourdain by submission
Anyone who watched back-to-back guillotines at bantamweight will want Jourdain by submission. But Vera has 36 pro fights and has never been finished, owns 10 submission wins of his own, and doesn't shoot, which is the exact situation that feeds a guillotine. Both of Jourdain's subs at 135 came out of scrambles: one after escaping Victor Henry's back take, the other with Davey Grant trying to stand up after a flying knee. And after Phillips, Jourdain admitted the guillotine has been scouted: it "was not working."
Anyone who watched back-to-back guillotines at bantamweight will want Jourdain by submission. But Vera has 36 pro fights and has never been finished, owns 10 submission wins of his own, and doesn't shoot, which is the exact situation that feeds a guillotine. Both of Jourdain's subs at 135 came out of scrambles: one after escaping Victor Henry's back take, the other with Davey Grant trying to stand up after a flying knee. And after Phillips, Jourdain admitted the guillotine has been scouted: it "was not working."
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Marlon "Chito" Vera vs Charles "Air" Jourdain | UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 | September 19, 2026 | Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, United States
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