UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs Prates · May 2, 2026 · Bantamweight (135 lbs) · 3R
Thicknesse vs Morales
Literal Pickem
/. Decision-survivor gate fires: both fighters with high decision rates. Decision is the path.
Colby "Slickness" Thicknesse
8-1-0 · Unranked
Vince "Vandetta" Morales
16-10-0 · Unranked
In 30 seconds
Colby Thicknesse wins by Decision
- /Literal pickemFightOdds.io opening. The market doesn't see an edge either.
- 0-3Morales' skidMust-win to keep his roster spot.
- 5/5Last decisions combinedDecision gate fires: default decision.
The key to the fight
THE DECIDING POINT
GATE 2 Fired: Decision Is the Path
Both fighters carry sky-high recent decision rates: Thicknesse at 100% in the UFC (UD over Topuria + UD over Musasa), Morales at 4 of 5 (80%). The decision-survivor gate fires — predicted method defaults to Decision.
Thicknesse is a wrestle-pressure fighter (1.0 TDs per 15, BJJ + wrestling since age 6, Volkanovski training partner), Morales is a veteran striker-grappler with sub threat (nearly finished Smith by choke). The literal / pickem signals the market doesn't see a clean edge either.
Real edge sits in over rounds + total significant strikes, not in moneyline.
Thicknesse is 26, on the rise, hometown Perth, with Volkanovski in his corner. Stuffed 8 of 8 takedowns vs Topuria.
Morales is 35 and must-win, more experienced (16-10), real power (KO of Smolka 2021), sub threat (nearly finished Smith). Trained with Merab, Sterling, and Ricky Simon in 2025.
Tale of the Tape
| Thicknesse | Tale of the Tape | Morales |
|---|---|---|
| 26 | AgeThicknesse nine years younger. Critical at 135. | 35 |
| 5'7" | HeightEven. | 5'7" |
| N/A | ReachMorales' reach known. | 70" |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| Freestyle Fighting Gym (Volkanovski) | CampElite camps both ways. | Syndicate MMA Las Vegas |
Current form
Opponent caliber in recent fights
| Fighter | Date | Opponent | Result | Method | Opponent caliber |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colby Thicknesse | Feb 2025 | Aleksandre Topuria | L | Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3) | 3 |
| Colby Thicknesse | Sep 2025 | Josias Musasa | W | Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3) | 1 |
| Vince Morales | May 2022 | Jonathan Martinez | L | Unanimous Decision | 2 |
| Vince Morales | Nov 2022 | Miles Johns | L | Decision | 2 |
| Vince Morales | Sep 2024 | Taylor Lapilus | L | Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3) | 4 |
| Vince Morales | Feb 2025 | Elijah Smith | L | Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3) | 2 |
| Vince Morales | Mar 2025 | Raul Rosas Jr | L | Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3) | 3 |
Colby Thicknesse · Climbing
1-1 in the UFC. Tight UD win over Musasa at UFC Perth Sep 2025 (same arena, was rocked multiple times by the straight right). Before that, a UD loss to Topuria at UFC 312 Feb 2025 (his short-notice debut — stuffed 8 of 8 takedowns but absorbed cumulative damage).
Vince Morales · Sliding
0-3 skid (all decisions). Last UFC W: KO1 of Smolka in Dec 2021 — almost 4.5 years ago. Must-win to keep his UFC roster spot. Trained with Merab, Sterling, Ricky Simon in 2025 (elite BW sparring).
Level of competition
Thicknesse
Average opponent level (1 to 5)2
Record1W-1L UFC
Against the top 50W-0L
Morales
Average opponent level (1 to 5)3
Record0W-3L skid
Against the top 50W-1L
No common opponents. Calibre similar (~3). Decision-survivor gate fires: both above 40% decision rate over the last 5 (Thicknesse 100%, Morales 80%). Default predicted method = Decision.
Stats
Sig. Strikes per MinuteVolume similar.
Sig. Strikes Absorbed/Min (lower is better)Morales absorbs more (4.00) than he lands (3.57). Defensive red flag.
Strike Defense (%)Thicknesse strike defense not captured.
Takedowns per 15 MinThicknesse the more active offensive wrestler.
Takedown Defense (%)Thicknesse TDD 50%. Morales not captured.
How they win and lose
Thicknesse
- KO/TKO 25% (2)
- Submission 25% (2)
- Decision 50% (4)
Morales
- KO/TKO 44% (7)
- Submission 31% (5)
- Decision 25% (4)
Thicknesse is 50% decisions. Morales is more of a finisher historically, but recent results are decision-heavy.
Skills
Where each fighter has the edge
1. Volume StrikingEdge: Morales (1/5)
SLpM marginally higher.
2. Offensive WrestlingEdge: Thicknesse (1/5)
TD avg 1.0 vs 0.5.
3. PowerEdge: Morales (2/5)
Morales KO'd Smolka in 2021. Thicknesse zero KOs in the UFC.
4. 3R CardioEdge: Thicknesse (2/5)
Age 26 + Volk's camp. Morales 35 but goes the distance.
5. Sub GameEdge: Morales (1/5)
5 career subs (peruvian necktie for the UFL title in 2024).
6. HometownEdge: Thicknesse (3/5)
Perth + crowd advantage on close cards.
Almost dead even. Thicknesse holds a marginal edge via age + hometown. Morales has more experience but he's on the slide.
Full prediction
The thesis
The thesis: Thicknesse wins because he's nine years younger, fights at home in Perth, has Volkanovski in his corner, and Morales is 0-3 must-win at 35. Path: Thicknesse pressures with takedown attempts, Morales defends but absorbs cumulative damage, tight decision tipped by crowd advantage. Believe it'll be tight, but the path is visible.
Honest 5 conviction. Literal / pickem. Decision gate fires forcing the default. Marginal edge in age + hometown only. Not enough convergent dimensions for a 6.
What breaks the thesis
- Morales lands the overhand right (KO Smolka power)
- Sub in a scramble (Morales nearly finished Smith)
- Cards swing to Morales on superior volume
- Thicknesse cardio dips (tiny UFC sample)
The underdog's path
Morales uses volume and experience to control pace. Lands the overhand in a transition or finds the neck in a scramble. OR wins close cards on superior output.
- Sustain volume across three rounds
- Don't cede repeated takedowns
- Find a finish or out-volume
- Win close cards