September 5, 2026 · Accor Arena, Paris, France
Sy
12-2-0
UnrankedClichy, Paris, France | 30 years old
Bukauskas
20-7-0
UnrankedKlaipeda, Lithuania | 32 years old
The Building He's Never Lost In
Two losses in four fights, both of them far from Paris. Sy comes back to the Accor Arena, where he's 2-0, against the Lithuanian who knocked out Paul Craig in this same building a year ago.
Conviction
Conviction 5, and it doesn't go higher, because the underdog road here is concrete and it has a name and a date on it. What holds up the Sy side is specific: across his last three long fights, Bukauskas has not won the significant-strike count once, going 44 to 58 against Cutelaba, 40 to 72 against Krylov, and 36 to 36 with a short-notice debutant. A man who can't win that count against those names has double the work against a 7-inch reach edge. Add a detail he handed over himself: the May win came at a 215-pound catchweight, and he said out loud that not cutting weight was perfect for him. Now he has to make 205 again. What keeps everything pinned at 5 is Sy. His problem has never been the tools, it's been showing up. After the Menifield loss he publicly admitted he wasn't there, that it wasn't him, and in March, as a clear favorite, he gave up his neck in a scramble chasing a leg lock and got submitted in a round. A fighter who has checked out inside the cage twice in four fights doesn't earn high conviction, however well the matchup reads on paper.
Conviction 5, and it doesn't go higher, because the underdog road here is concrete and it has a name and a date on it. What holds up the Sy side is specific: across his last three long fights, Bukauskas has not won the significant-strike count once, going 44 to 58 against Cutelaba, 40 to 72 against Krylov, and 36 to 36 with a short-notice debutant. A man who can't win that count against those names has double the work against a 7-inch reach edge. Add a detail he handed over himself: the May win came at a 215-pound catchweight, and he said out loud that not cutting weight was perfect for him. Now he has to make 205 again. What keeps everything pinned at 5 is Sy. His problem has never been the tools, it's been showing up. After the Menifield loss he publicly admitted he wasn't there, that it wasn't him, and in March, as a clear favorite, he gave up his neck in a scramble chasing a leg lock and got submitted in a round. A fighter who has checked out inside the cage twice in four fights doesn't earn high conviction, however well the matchup reads on paper.
THE PARADOX
The Invincibility Died. The Reach Didn't.
In May 2024, on the eve of his UFC debut, Oumar Sy was asked about titles. He said he didn't hold an official one, but that his real title was his invincibility. Two years later that title is gone. Alonzo Menifield took the zero in Atlanta, and Ion Cutelaba took the rest in Las Vegas with a mounted guillotine at 4:24 of round one, after Sy handed over his own neck in a scramble while hunting a leg lock off his back. What's left is more interesting than the myth he lost. Sy still carries an 83-inch reach against 76. He still absorbs 1.87 significant strikes per minute to Bukauskas' 3.86. And he still has never been knocked out in 14 pro fights. Across the cage is a man who's been stopped by strikes five times, the most recent of them in January, out cold with three seconds left in round three. The numbers all point one direction. Sy's problem has never been the tools. After the Menifield loss he said it in his own words: it wasn't him, he wasn't there. Tonight's question isn't whether he has the attributes. It's whether he shows up.
In May 2024, on the eve of his UFC debut, Oumar Sy was asked about titles. He said he didn't hold an official one, but that his real title was his invincibility. Two years later that title is gone. Alonzo Menifield took the zero in Atlanta, and Ion Cutelaba took the rest in Las Vegas with a mounted guillotine at 4:24 of round one, after Sy handed over his own neck in a scramble while hunting a leg lock off his back. What's left is more interesting than the myth he lost. Sy still carries an 83-inch reach against 76. He still absorbs 1.87 significant strikes per minute to Bukauskas' 3.86. And he still has never been knocked out in 14 pro fights. Across the cage is a man who's been stopped by strikes five times, the most recent of them in January, out cold with three seconds left in round three. The numbers all point one direction. Sy's problem has never been the tools. After the Menifield loss he said it in his own words: it wasn't him, he wasn't there. Tonight's question isn't whether he has the attributes. It's whether he shows up.
Truth A
Sy is 3-2 in the UFC, he's dropped two of his last four, and he just got submitted in a round by a veteran who walked in as the underdog. The market still charges for him, as if he were the 2024 prospect and not the fighter those five octagon appearances actually showed.
Truth B
Both losses happened outside France. Inside the Accor Arena he put 90 significant strikes on Da Woon Jung and stopped Brendson Ribeiro in one round. And the man in front of him tonight hasn't won the significant-strike count in any of his last three long fights.
Tale of the Tape
Sy is two years younger and carries 15 fewer pro fights of mileage
A 7-inch reach edge for the Frenchman, the biggest physical gap in the fight
Bukauskas is a two-time Cage Warriors light heavyweight champion who fought his way back into the UFC
Current Form
Oumar Sy
The first finish loss of his career. He walked in a clear favorite, ended up on the mat, hunted a leg lock from the bottom and gave up his neck in the scramble. Mounted guillotine at 4:24 of round one.
Sub R1Accor Arena. An immediate answer to the first loss of his career: 17 significant strikes to 5, two takedowns, and a stoppage from top position off elbows and punches at 4:42 of round one.
TKO R1First loss of his career, 29-28 across all three cards. He actually out-landed Menifield 34 to 29 in significant strikes and still lost it on fence work and aggression. Menifield is now ranked No. 14.
Unanimous DecisionAccor Arena. His best UFC night by a distance: 90 significant strikes landed to 29, at 60 percent accuracy across three rounds.
Unanimous DecisionUFC debut. Tokkos stepped in on short notice after two opponent switches and got finished at 3:43 of round one.
Sub R1One win and two losses in his last four, and the last one was the first finish loss of his career, in a single round, against a veteran who was the betting underdog. Before that he'd already come up short against Menifield, and he admitted afterward that he simply wasn't there, that it wasn't him. The counterpoint is that he answered it last time: three months later he returned to the Accor Arena and stopped Brendson Ribeiro in round one. In Paris he's 2-0 and has produced his two best UFC performances. Both of his losses came away from home.
Modestas Bukauskas
A 215-pound catchweight against a short-notice newcomer. He took it 29-28, 29-28, 28-29 while landing 36 significant strikes in 15 minutes, the same number as his opponent. He said himself that not having to cut weight was perfect for him.
Split DecisionHe was behind on the cards and got flattened by a counter right hand with three seconds left in round three. Krylov out-landed him 72 to 40 in significant strikes.
KO R3Accor Arena, the same building as this one. Craig pulled guard, Bukauskas rode the top position and landed a buzzer-beating elbow as round one expired. Paul Craig announced his retirement in the cage that night.
KO R1A heavily disputed split decision. Cutelaba out-landed him in two of the three rounds and most of the public and tracked media had the Moldovan winning it.
Split DecisionA clean knockout off a punching flurry at 2:12 of round one, with a knockdown along the way. The kind of night that explains the 11 knockouts on his record.
KO R1Four wins in his last five, but the picture is messier than the record. The Cutelaba win was a split decision most of the public and most tracked analysts scored for the Moldovan. The May win came at a 215-pound catchweight against a short-notice debutant, with Bukauskas landing 36 significant strikes over 15 minutes, the exact same number his opponent landed. In between, in January, Krylov put him out with three seconds left in round three, the fifth time in his career he's been stopped by strikes. What he genuinely has is what he's always had: the power to end a night from anywhere, the way he ended Paul Craig's right here in Paris, on elbows from top position.
Level of Competition
Ion Cutelaba is the name that links these two, and it links them awkwardly in both directions. Bukauskas took a split decision off the Moldovan at UFC 315 in May 2025, on a scorecard the crowd and most tracked analysts gave to Cutelaba. Sy got submitted by that same Cutelaba in a single round ten months later, as the favorite. The recent calibre is a match, both men beating unranked veterans, but the mileage isn't: Sy has five UFC fights, Bukauskas has 13, including Krylov, Rountree, Crute and Oleksiejczuk. Neither has faced a top-five opponent.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes per Minute
Similar volume, but the Frenchman lands more and misses less
Striking Accuracy (%)
Strikes Absorbed per Minute
The most lopsided number in the fight: Bukauskas eats more than twice as much
Striking Defense (%)
Takedowns per 15 Min
Sy has 7 takedowns in 5 UFC fights, Bukauskas has 2 in 13
Takedown Accuracy (%)
Takedown Defense (%)
The Lithuanian's best defensive number, and it points straight at the Frenchman's plan A
Submissions per 15 Min
Sy leads in 6 categories · Bukauskas leads in 2
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Both men finish, but the map is messier than the resumes suggest. Bukauskas has 11 knockouts in 20 wins, 55 percent, most of them off punches on the feet, including two first-round stoppages in his last five outings. But his two most-replayed elbow finishes weren't stand-up at all: Paul Craig got it on his back with Bukauskas in top position as the horn sounded, and Andreas Michailidis got cracked with elbows the moment he shot in. Sy closes 9 of his 12 wins inside the distance, split between five knockouts and four submissions, but his UFC pattern doesn't match the resume: across five octagon appearances he has not put anyone down on the feet, his knockdown average is zero, and his only strikes finish came from top position, elbows and punches on Brendson Ribeiro. That cuts the method read both ways. The Lithuanian's shortest route is still the standing counter, but he ends nights from top position too. The Frenchman's is accumulation, or it's the mat.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
This is where the fight explains itself. Bukauskas has been stopped by strikes in 5 of his 7 losses, 71 percent, and four of those stoppages happened in the UFC: Crute, Rountree, Petrino and Krylov. The most recent was January, out cold with three seconds left in round three. Sy has never been knocked out across 14 pro fights: his two losses are one decision and one submission, neither of them by strikes. The practical read cuts both ways. The Lithuanian's one shot has to break a chin nobody has broken yet. And if the Frenchman wins, his opponent's loss history says it's more likely to end before the cards than on them. The honest caveat: two losses don't establish any pattern on Sy's side, only an absence of evidence against him.
Skills Profile
Sy
vs
Bukauskas
Striking at Range
+3 Sy
A 7-inch reach edge and 1.87 strikes absorbed per minute against 3.86. At open range, the Lithuanian arrives late.
Close-Range Striking
+2 Bukauskas
Bukauskas does his damage in tight, on elbows, and the receipts are on tape: he stopped Paul Craig from top position and broke Andreas Michailidis with elbows as the Greek shot in.
Knockout Power
+2 Bukauskas
Eleven knockouts in 20 wins for the Lithuanian against five in 12 for the Frenchman, and Sy hasn't registered a single knockdown in five UFC fights.
Striking Defense
+3 Sy
Sixty-six percent striking defense against 50, and Bukauskas has been stopped by strikes in five of his seven career losses.
Grappling & Clinch
+2 Sy
Sy has four submissions and 2.45 takedowns per 15 minutes. Bukauskas has landed two takedowns in 13 UFC fights, but stuffs 82 percent of what comes at him.
Cardio (3 Rounds)
+1 Bukauskas
Bukauskas has gone the full 15 five times in the UFC, past 10 minutes in seven of his 13, and he has two fourth rounds from his Cage Warriors run on top of that. Sy has four 15-minute fights in his whole career, only two of them in the UFC. The edge here is deep-water reps, not a proven cardio gap.
Sy wins everything that depends on open space and defensive numbers. Bukauskas wins everything that depends on close quarters and hard miles. The whole fight is an argument about where it happens, and the map is literally geographic: center of the octagon, or the fence.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
Conviction5/10The thesis is: Oumar Sy wins because he carries a 7-inch reach edge and absorbs 1.87 significant strikes per minute against 3.86 from a man who defends only 50 percent of what comes at him, because Bukauskas has been stopped by strikes in 5 of his 7 career losses and the latest one had him out cold with three seconds left in round three against Krylov, and because the only route that has ever broken Sy, the mat, is closed to a Lithuanian who has landed two takedowns in 13 UFC fights.
The thesis is: Oumar Sy wins because he carries a 7-inch reach edge and absorbs 1.87 significant strikes per minute against 3.86 from a man who defends only 50 percent of what comes at him, because Bukauskas has been stopped by strikes in 5 of his 7 career losses and the latest one had him out cold with three seconds left in round three against Krylov, and because the only route that has ever broken Sy, the mat, is closed to a Lithuanian who has landed two takedowns in 13 UFC fights.
The path is Sy working the jab and the leg kick in the center of the octagon, forcing Bukauskas to cross that distance just to exist in the fight, and collecting the toll until the accumulation shows in round two or three. It breaks down if Sy shows up absent the way he did in Atlanta, letting the Lithuanian pin him on the fence and steal close rounds on aggression, or if Bukauskas lands the counter right before the range starts to bite.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
If Bukauskas gets Sy on the fence and sustains the clinch work the way Menifield did, the range stops existing and this becomes a close-rounds fight the Lithuanian is far more experienced at winning.
- 02
If Sy repeats the passivity of Atlanta and sits below 12 significant strikes a round, he hands over the cards without even taking damage.
- 03
If Sy rushes a takedown and a submission early, the way he did against Cutelaba, he offers up exactly the kind of scramble that produced the only finish loss of his career.
- 04
If Bukauskas lands the counter right hand in the first five minutes, Sy's untouched chin becomes an untested hypothesis rather than a guarantee.
Underdog Path
Bukauskas doesn't try to win the range, he crosses it. He cuts the cage behind low kicks, switches stances to stay unreadable, accepts the jab on the way in, and the moment he arrives he looks for the fence and the clinch, where seven inches of reach becomes a nuisance instead of a weapon. From there it's knees, elbows and short volume, which is exactly what he did to take decisions off Cutelaba and Christian Edwards. He steals two close rounds on aggression and fence time. And if Sy gets frustrated with the pace and rushes a takedown, that exit elbow that retired Paul Craig is waiting on the way back up.
Required Conditions
- Close the distance within the first two minutes of every round instead of standing at the end of the Frenchman's jab
- Get the fight to the fence and pile up clinch time, turning rounds into an aggression-and-short-work argument
- Stuff the first two or three takedown attempts to strip Sy of his confidence in going back to the mat
- Keep the back hand loaded for all 15 minutes, because his shortest route is still one clean counter
— Precedent: Menifield vs Sy, June 2025 in Atlanta. A physically strong veteran turned the fight into fence work and aggression and took a unanimous decision 29-28 across all three cards while landing fewer significant strikes than Sy, 29 to 34. It was the first loss of the Frenchman's career and it proved you can beat him without winning the exchanges.
Verdict
Winner
Oumar Sy
Method
TKO
Most Likely
- 01
Winner
Modestas Bukauskas
Bukauskas because the consensus price implies 40 percent and this analysis lands on 45: his road is fence work and aggression, it's concrete, and it has a named, dated precedent in Menifield, who beat this same Sy while landing fewer strikes. The market is wrong because it's charging for the Frenchman's frame and the Paris crowd, not for the fact that he's 3-2 in the UFC and has checked out inside the cage in two of his last four. If you have, is the best public number and widens the edge to six points. Breaks if Sy shows up as the Accor Arena version and the Lithuanian spends the night arriving late into the jab.
- 02
Winner
Oumar Sy
Sy is the right side of the fight and the wrong side of the price. The market charges 65 percent for a matchup this analysis puts at 52. It's worth having as a winner read, not as a bet, because there's no meat on it. It breaks by definition: that line only makes sense if Sy is a good deal better than his five UFC fights have shown.
- 03
Method
Oumar Sy by KO/TKO
If Sy wins, the history says it probably ends before the cards: Bukauskas has been stopped by strikes in 5 of 7 losses and the Frenchman closes 9 of his 12 wins inside the distance. The market tends to underrate that route because Sy has no UFC knockdowns and his only strikes finish came from top position. Breaks if the Lithuanian defends the takedowns well and turns the night into a close-rounds fight on the fence.
Most Likely Outcome
Bukauskas, small stake. No play on the favorite.
The fight is close and the price barely says so: at book consensus the underdog percent implied and this analysis puts him at 45, a five-point edge, six if you can get the. The winner read is still Sy, but there's no edge, and Bukauskas' road is being priced as if it were hypothetical when it's concrete and another veteran has already driven it against this same Frenchman. Thin edge, so small stake, and no shame at all in passing on this one entirely.
Stats That Matter
71%
of Bukauskas' 7 career losses came by KO or TKO
Four of them in the UFC, the latest in January, out cold with three seconds left in round three
7 in
reach edge for Sy, 83 inches against 76
Against a man who absorbs 3.86 significant strikes per minute and defends only 50 percent
ZERO
knockout losses for Sy in 14 pro fights
His two defeats are one decision and one submission, never by strikes
The Trap
Trap: Sy by submission
The market will look at Sy's four submissions, the kickboxer label on Bukauskas, and decide the mat solves this. It doesn't. Bukauskas has never been submitted in 13 UFC fights, he stuffs 82 percent of takedowns, and the only submission loss on his record is a 2016 leg lock from the British regional scene. Add the most recent data point: the last time Sy chased a submission in a scramble, he handed over his neck and lost in a round. Of all the routes he has, the ground is the least likely one.
The market will look at Sy's four submissions, the kickboxer label on Bukauskas, and decide the mat solves this. It doesn't. Bukauskas has never been submitted in 13 UFC fights, he stuffs 82 percent of takedowns, and the only submission loss on his record is a 2016 leg lock from the British regional scene. Add the most recent data point: the last time Sy chased a submission in a scramble, he handed over his neck and lost in a round. Of all the routes he has, the ground is the least likely one.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Oumar Sy vs Modestas "The Baltic Gladiator" Bukauskas | UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse | September 5, 2026 | Accor Arena, Paris, France
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