UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs Pyfer • Light Heavyweight (205 lbs) • 3 Rounds
March 28, 2026
Stirling
8-0-0
Lopes
14-2-0
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes Per Minute
Stirling lands more than double the significant strikes per minute. Absurd volume for light heavyweight.
Striking Accuracy (%)
Stirling has well above-average accuracy, 13 percentage points higher than Lopes.
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Stirling absorbs fewer strikes while producing much more. Good distance management.
Strike Defense (%)
Stirling defends 58% of strikes directed at him. Lopes has concerning defense.
Takedowns Per 15 Min
Lopes attempts far more takedowns, indicating he may want to take the fight to the ground.
Takedown Accuracy (%)
Stirling rarely shoots and has low conversion. Lopes converts half his attempts.
Takedown Defense (%)
Lopes has 100% TD defense in the UFC, but based on a small sample of 2 fights.
Stirling leads in 4 categories · Lopes leads in 3
Tale of the Tape
Stirling is 4 years younger
Stirling has a 2-inch height advantage
Massive 4.5-inch reach advantage for Stirling
CKB is one of the best gyms in the world
Fight History
Third consecutive UFC win. Controlled the pace throughout against Brazilian veteran.
Unanimous DecisionUFC 315 fight, traded heavy with Erslan and nearly finished in the final moments. Best performance to date.
Unanimous DecisionUFC debut in Tampa. Solid points win showing discipline and maturity for a debutant.
Unanimous DecisionContender Series. Clean left hook knockout in round two. Earned UFC contract.
KO R2 (2:21)Tough pre-UFC fight. Kei was durable and experienced, but Stirling finished in the third round.
TKO R3 (1:48)Knocked out in the first round. Jacoby landed a stiff jab and finished with a brutal combination on the fence.
TKO R1 (1:50)UFC debut. Started slow but improved in the second round, closing distance effectively.
Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)Contender Series. Knocked out in the first round, did not earn a contract on this attempt.
KO R1LFA title fight. Quick first-round knockout, won the light heavyweight belt.
KO R1Skills Profile
Stand-up Striking
StirlingStirling has a world-class kickboxing base with King in the Ring and WKBF titles. 5.82 SLpM at 56% accuracy vs 2.81 at 43% for Lopes. Clear technical gap.
Knockout Power
LopesLopes has 6 KOs in 14 wins (43%), including quick knockouts in LFA. Stirling has 4 KOs in 8 wins, but his UFC finishes have not come yet.
Wrestling & Grappling
LopesLopes has 2.5 TD/15min and 5 submission wins. BJJ brown belt. Stirling only shoots 0.70 TD/15min and defends 72%.
Overall Defense
StirlingStirling has never been effectively dropped and defends 58% of strikes. Lopes has been knocked out twice in his career, showing chin vulnerability.
Cardio & Pace
StirlingStirling won 3 straight unanimous decisions in the UFC maintaining a high pace. Kickboxing base ensures superior cardio. Lopes did not get past round one against Jacoby.
Experience & Camp
StirlingStirling trains at City Kickboxing with Eugene Bareman, the same team as Adesanya and Volk. Lopes has more pro fights (16 vs 8) but CKB training is another level.
Stirling is the more technical and complete fighter in this matchup. His world-class kickboxing base, City Kickboxing training, and absurd strike volume create a clear advantage on the feet. Lopes brings real danger in grappling with 5 submissions and concentrated knockout power, but his concerning strike defense (43%) and two knockout losses reveal a questionable chin against a striker of Stirling's caliber.
Win Distribution
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Stirling splits his wins evenly between knockouts and decisions, with no submissions. A pure striker profile who, when unable to stop his opponent, has the discipline to win on the cards. Lopes is more diverse with 43% KOs, 36% submissions, and only 21% decisions. The Brazilian prefers to finish fights, but that also means he takes more risks.
Final Prediction
Vencedor Previsto
Stirling
Unanimous Decision or Late TKO|Confidence MEDIUM-HIGH
Stirling has clear advantages in the most important areas of this fight: strike volume (5.82 vs 2.81 SLpM), accuracy (56% vs 43%), physical reach (4.5-inch reach advantage), and training quality at City Kickboxing. The New Zealander has 3 consecutive unanimous decisions in the UFC and shows constant improvement. Lopes brings danger with grappling and knockout power, but was finished in round one by Jacoby, exposing defensive fragility. If the fight stays standing, Stirling dominates. If Lopes can close distance and take it down, it gets dangerous. Most likely Stirling controls range with jabs and kicks, frustrating Lopes for 3 rounds.
X-Factor
Stirling's reach advantage
With a 4.5-inch reach advantage and world-class kickboxing, Stirling can keep Lopes at the end of his jab the entire fight. Lopes needs to get into the clinch to be effective, and every step forward becomes an opportunity for Stirling to score with kicks and long straights.
Upset Alert
Lopes' grappling could change everything
Lopes has 5 submission wins and a BJJ brown belt. If he can take Stirling down early, he could grab a submission and end the fight before the kickboxer finds his rhythm. Stirling has only 72% takedown defense.
UFC NEWS HUB - Preliminary Analysis
Stirling vs Lopes | UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs Pyfer | Light Heavyweight (205 lbs)