Song vs Figueiredo

The key to the fight

THE INTERSECTION

The Younger Fighter Has the Calibre. The Veteran Has the Power — But in Five Rounds in Macau, Age Cashes the Check.

Song Yadong is the most experienced bantamweight in the division within the 28-year-old age bracket.

He's piled up 11 wins and 6 losses in the UFC, dropped fights to three former champions across his last 4 cards (Yan, O'Malley, and a controversial UD over Cejudo in February 2025), and has never been finished in 32 professional fights.

The public narrative is that he failed to break through to the top tier, but the read needs to be calibrated: three of those four losses were tight three-round cards against former champions. The guys who beat him are world-class references; the guy who lost wasn't hurt.

On the other side, Deiveson Figueiredo is the fighter who bet everything on the division jump. Two-time flyweight champion with the iconic Moreno KO, he moved up to bantamweight in December 2023, debuting with a wide UD (30-27 across) over Rob Font (it looked like he was about to explode at 135).

But the ceiling dropped: round-2 TKO injury knee loss to Sandhagen out-struck 92-8, UD to Umar at 138.5 lb catchweight (missed weight, forfeited 25% of his purse), UD to Yan in the same Macau venue where this fight is going down. At 38, he's the fighter with the most mileage in the cage in this matchup.

The question in this main event isn't technical, it's structural. Deiveson still has a real path (preserved flyweight pop, BJJ black belt), but he has to close it out in rounds 1-3, because rounds 4-5 are Song's territory.

Tale of the Tape

Current form

Level of competition

No direct common opponents at bantamweight. Petr Yan beat them both via UD (Yan beat Song in March 2024, beat Deiveson in November 2024) and is the best calibre proxy. Both decisions were three-rounders with no finish danger.

Calibre of the last five opponents: Song faced O'Malley (former champion), Cejudo (former champion), Yan (former champion), Gutierrez, Simon. Deiveson faced Umar (#3), Jackson (top 15), Sandhagen (#4), Yan (former champion), Vera (top 10). Tied on calibre.

The difference is momentum: Song walked out of a world-champion fight without being hurt; Deiveson walked out of a Sandhagen TKO injury and a UD to Umar at a missed-weight catchweight.

Stats

How they win and lose

Well-distributed profiles. Song is more decision-heavy (48% of wins by decision), 26% by KO and 13% by submission. Deiveson has a more aggressive distribution: 36% by KO/TKO (9 finishes including KOs and TKOs), 28% by submission (7 subs), and 36% by decision.

The difference is that Deiveson's 9 KOs came mostly at flyweight where he had a power edge. At bantamweight he's zero-for-five. Song has 6 KOs in 22 wins, the last one against Ricky Simon in round 5 (April 2023), proof he still finishes when he cashes in on cardio.

A structurally important stat for this fight. Song has 9 career losses: 5 by decision (55.6%), 3 by KO/TKO (33.3%), and zero by submission. He's NEVER been submitted in 32 professional fights.

The KOs were on the regional circuit early in his career (pre-UFC) and the Sandhagen R4 doctor stoppage on a cut in September 2022 that technically counts as TKO.

Deiveson has 6 losses: 3 by decision (50%), 2 by KO/TKO (33.3%, including the Sandhagen TKO injury R2 in May 2025), and 1 by submission (RNC R3 to Brandon Moreno, UFC 263 in June 2021).

For method bets: Deiveson submitting Song is statistically tough (zero subs in 32 fights, and Deiveson has never submitted anyone at bantamweight). Song by KO/TKO on Deiveson is more viable than the reverse, given Deiveson's chin has already been tested against Sandhagen and Umar.

Skills

• 1. Striking VolumeEdge: Song (2/5)

  Song 4.61 SLpM vs Deiveson 3.09. Song produces 49% more raw volume. Sanda + Chinese Muay Thai against Belem-style striking.

• 2. Accuracy and Impact PowerEdge: Figueiredo (2/5)

  Deiveson 55-59% accuracy, flyweight pop in his hands. Song 42% accuracy, more volume and less efficiency. Deiveson lands cleaner when he lands.

• 3. Knockout PowerEdge: Figueiredo (1/5)

  Deiveson 9 KOs in 25 wins (36%). Song 6 KOs in 22 (27%). But Deiveson is zero-for-five at bantamweight, so the edge is historical, not current.

• 4. Takedown DefenseEdge: Song (2/5)

  Song 72% TDD vs Deiveson 53% TDD. Neither one shoots as plan A. The stat matters for defending opportunistic shots.

• 5. Damage Resistance (Chin + Sub Defense)Edge: Song (2/5)

  Song has NEVER been submitted in 32 fights. Deiveson has been submitted once (Moreno RNC at UFC 263) and KO'd twice. Song has the elite chin and zero submission history.

• 6. Cardio Across Five RoundsEdge: Song (3/5)

  Song is 28, Deiveson is 38. Song has gone five recently with Simon and O'Malley. Deiveson has gone five at flyweight, but at bantamweight he's only fought 15-minute fights.

Deiveson has the edge in the first 15 minutes (power, preserved flyweight pop, BJJ catch threat). Song has the structural edge after that (cardio, age, elite chin, takedown defense, recent strength of schedule). The fight is a race between Deiveson finishing early and Song imposing his fight in the late rounds. A 10-year gap in a five-round main event is the deciding factor.

Full prediction

The thesis

The thesis is: Song Yadong wins because he has a ten-year age advantage (28 vs 38) in a five-round main event where the gas tank counts double, recent strength of schedule that's equal or better (a UD loss to a reigning world champion in O'Malley is an honorable defeat; Figueiredo just dropped a UD to Umar and got TKO'd by Sandhagen, showing his ceiling against elite bantamweights has fallen), and a gas tank built for distance against a Deiveson who's a natural undersized fighter at 135 and grows into the weight.

The path is Song working range across rounds 1-3 with kicks to the legs to erode mobility, avoiding pocket exchanges where Deiveson still has flyweight pop in his hands, mixing in a couple of opportunistic takedowns to flash threats, and closing scorecards 49-46 or 48-47 over the late rounds.

This collapses if Deiveson lands a clean overhand right in round 1 or 2, or catches a guillotine off a Song takedown attempt.

Conviction 6 (not 7) because (1) a 10-year age gap in a five-round main event is decisive, (2) Song defends takedowns well and Figueiredo isn't dictating wrestling, (3) Song's recent strength of schedule is superior (lost cards to the champ, never finished), while Deiveson got TKO'd by Sandhagen and dropped a UD to Umar, showing his ceiling against the elite has dropped.

But Deiveson's heavy hands don't evaporate, (b) BJJ catches off scrambles are a real threat on takedowns, (c) Deiveson has a track record of finishing when nobody expects (KO'd Moreno after losing to him twice). That's why I'm not going to conviction 7.

What breaks the thesis

1. Deiveson lands a clean overhand right in the first 15 minutes before the gas tank dips (his specialty)
2. Catches a guillotine or kimura on an opportunistic Song takedown attempt
3. Song underestimates Deiveson's right hand and bangs in the pocket without managing range
4. Deiveson's cardio holds above expectations and the fight stays even into 25 minutes

The underdog's path

Figueiredo has two paths. Path A (KO): preserved flyweight pop in the hands — land the overhand right or right cross in the pocket when Song closes distance to bang. The Brandon Moreno KO (UFC 263) showed the right hand finishes anyone it lands clean on. Path B (Sub): catch a guillotine off a desperate Song takedown attempt in round 3 or 4 when the cards are slipping away, or hit a kimura in the clinch. Path B is less likely, but Deiveson is technically a BJJ black belt with 7 submission wins out of 25.

• Land a clean overhand right in the first two rounds before the gas tank dips
• Force a stand-up exchange in the pocket without ceding range to Song
• Survive Song's leg-kick volume in rounds 1-2
• Step on the gas in rounds 4-5 and stress-test Song's cardio if judges haven't locked the cards yet