June 20, 2026 · Meta APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Shahbazyan
12-4-0
UFC DebutGlendale, California, USA | 30 years old
Chokheli
14-3-0
UFC DebutTbilisi, Georgia | 29 years old
The Chin Against the Power
Both men debuting. The ground finisher against the knockout artist. Whoever sets the terrain wins.
THE DECIDING POINT
Where the Fight Happens Decides Who Wins
This is one of the best-matched double debuts on the card, and the reason is simple: each man is exactly the other's poison. Leon Shahbazyan has finished 11 of his 12 career wins, rides a streak of four straight first-round submissions, three of them in under a minute, and he is comfortable working from his back, hunting a guillotine or armbar from anywhere. The problem sits on the other side of his ledger: all four of his career losses came by knockout. Every single one. No submission losses, no decision losses. His chin is the only hole, and it is wide open. On the other side, Levan Chokheli is the guy who aims at that hole. Eleven of the Georgian's 14 wins came by knockout, almost always inside two rounds, with real pop in his hands. But Chokheli has his own hole, and it is the opposite: he has been submitted on the ground by armbar by Goiti Yamauchi, and he has been dragged into a three-round decision by a wrestler who controlled him. The whole fight comes down to one question. If it stays standing, Chokheli lands the power and Shahbazyan's chin answers. If it hits the mat early, Shahbazyan ties him up and finishes.
This is one of the best-matched double debuts on the card, and the reason is simple: each man is exactly the other's poison. Leon Shahbazyan has finished 11 of his 12 career wins, rides a streak of four straight first-round submissions, three of them in under a minute, and he is comfortable working from his back, hunting a guillotine or armbar from anywhere. The problem sits on the other side of his ledger: all four of his career losses came by knockout. Every single one. No submission losses, no decision losses. His chin is the only hole, and it is wide open. On the other side, Levan Chokheli is the guy who aims at that hole. Eleven of the Georgian's 14 wins came by knockout, almost always inside two rounds, with real pop in his hands. But Chokheli has his own hole, and it is the opposite: he has been submitted on the ground by armbar by Goiti Yamauchi, and he has been dragged into a three-round decision by a wrestler who controlled him. The whole fight comes down to one question. If it stays standing, Chokheli lands the power and Shahbazyan's chin answers. If it hits the mat early, Shahbazyan ties him up and finishes.
Truth A
Shahbazyan finishes 11 of 12 and is riding four straight first-round submissions, three in under a minute. If he closes the distance and gets it down, Chokheli has already proven catchable there (the Yamauchi armbar, the Crutchmer decision grind).
Truth B
All four of Shahbazyan's career losses are by KO/TKO. Chokheli is a one-punch finisher with 11 knockouts in 14 wins. To get to that ground game, Shahbazyan first has to survive the exchanges, and that is exactly where he has always broken.
Tale of the Tape
Shahbazyan is 4 inches taller
Slight reach edge for Leon
Current Form
Leon Shahbazyan
The Pearl Theater, Las Vegas. First-round armbar. Proof the submission game runs deeper than one move.
Sub R1 (armbar)Lightning finish. Once again gave the opponent no room to breathe on the mat.
Sub R1 (42 seconds)Tuff-N-Uff 146. Guillotine in 47 seconds. The signature weapon showing up early.
Sub R1 (guillotine, 47 seconds)Start of the four-finish streak. First-round guillotine.
Sub R1 (guillotine)The last loss before the streak. Put away in round one, the living reminder that the chin hole is real.
KO/TKO R1Four straight first-round submissions between February 2025 and March 2026, and that looks great on paper. The honest caveat: it all came against unranked regional opposition. Shahbazyan has not faced anyone near the level Chokheli already saw in Bellator. The streak proves the grappling knife is sharp and the finishing instinct is real, but it tells us nothing about how he handles a genuine knockout artist's power, which is exactly what is coming.
Levan Chokheli
Phoenix FC 4, Kassel, Germany. A title fight on home soil. The knockout that rebuilt the narrative and opened the UFC door.
TKO R2 (punches)Bellator Champions Series San Diego. Ran into a veteran knockout artist and got put away early. A reminder his chin is not iron either.
KO R1 (punches)Bellator 299. The front kick that went viral. Iced a UFC veteran with a technique almost nobody finishes with.
KO R1 (front kick)Learned to win ugly, on the cards, against a wrestler. A sign he evolved past just the power.
Unanimous DecisionAnother grind-it-out decision against a tough out. Two rounds of management, banking the cards.
Unanimous DecisionChokheli is a Bellator veteran who went 4-3 in the promotion, a gulf of experience over Shahbazyan's regional run. He arrives on the best version of himself: a second-round knockout over Goncalves in a title fight in Germany, after rebuilding in Europe. The flag is the fight before it, a first-round KO loss to Larkin that shows his chin has a limit too. That 4-3 Bellator run carries spectacular knockout wins (the Homasi front kick) and revealing losses (submitted by Yamauchi, dragged out by Crutchmer).
Level of Competition
No common opponents. The calibre gap is the most relevant data point here, and this time it favors the favorite. Shahbazyan's last four wins came against unranked regional opposition. Chokheli spent three years in Bellator facing clearly higher-level names (Lorenz Larkin, Sabah Homasi, Kyle Crutchmer, Goiti Yamauchi). When the underdog is the one with the thinner resume, the calibre caveat does not protect him, it exposes him.
Statistical Comparison
Wins by Submission (%)
Shahbazyan finished 11 of 12. Chokheli has zero submission wins.
Wins by KO/TKO (%)
Chokheli knocked out 11 of 14. Leon has just 1 KO.
Losses by KO/TKO (%)
All 4 of Leon's losses are by KO. The chin is the hole.
Losses by Submission (%)
Chokheli was submitted once (armbar, Yamauchi). Leon, never.
First-Round Wins (current streak)
Leon's four straight first-round submissions against regional opposition.
Reach (cm)
Leon holds a slight reach and height edge.
Major-promotion experience (fights)
Chokheli logged 7 Bellator fights. Leon comes straight from the regional scene.
Shahbazyan leads in 4 categories · Chokheli leads in 3
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Two finishers could not be more opposite. Shahbazyan is a pure ground finisher: 92 percent of his wins by submission, the cleanest submission profile you will find. Chokheli is the perfect inverse: 79 percent by knockout, zero submission wins, plus three grind-out decisions. Each man wins the exact way the other one loses. If Chokheli imposes the fight standing, the numbers swing hard his way. If Leon drags it down, the numbers flip with equal force.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
This is the data point that decides the fight. All four of Shahbazyan's career losses are by KO/TKO, no exceptions. When he loses, he gets put away on the feet, never submitted, never on the cards. That is exactly the pattern a heavy-handed knockout artist like Chokheli exploits. On the other side, the Georgian's three losses split one of each type (small sample, three total): the Larkin KO, the Yamauchi armbar on the ground, and the Crutchmer decision grind. So Chokheli has already been caught exactly where Leon attacks, on the mat. Each man owns the other's hole. The difference is that Leon's hole, the chin, is exposed from the opening second on the feet, while Chokheli's hole, the ground, only opens if the fight gets there.
Skills Profile
Shahbazyan
vs
Chokheli
Striking at Range
+3 Chokheli
Chokheli is a heavy-handed knockout artist with 11 KOs. Leon uses the jab and low kick to manage distance, but his real threat is not on the feet.
Knockout Power
+4 Chokheli
Real pop in Chokheli's hands, finishing inside two rounds. Leon has just 1 knockout in 12 wins.
Grappling and Submissions
+4 Shahbazyan
This is Leon's domain: 11 submissions, guillotine and armbar from any position, comfortable even off his back. Chokheli has already been submitted on the ground.
Striking Defense (chin)
+2 Chokheli
All 4 of Leon's losses were by KO. Chokheli's chin has cracked too (Larkin), but Leon's has failed every single time he has lost.
Clinch / Takedowns
+2 Shahbazyan
Leon closes distance to drag it down and does not mind giving up a takedown to attack off his back. Chokheli has been ground out by a wrestler before.
Cardio and Management (3 rounds)
+1 Chokheli
Chokheli has taken fights to a full three rounds (Crutchmer, Faraldo, Lombardo). Leon finishes so early he has rarely left round one, so UFC-pace cardio is an unknown.
This is a mirror-image matchup: Chokheli wins on the feet, Shahbazyan wins on the mat, and each man owns exactly the hole the other attacks. Whoever imposes his own terrain in the opening minutes probably takes the fight.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
The thesis is: Levan Chokheli wins because he has the knockout power that attacks Shahbazyan's one and only hole, since all four of Leon's career losses came by KO/TKO (ESPN data cross-checked with Tapology), because 11 of the Georgian's 14 wins came by knockout inside two rounds while Leon has just one career KO, and because Shahbazyan's submission path was built entirely on the regional scene, against opposition well below the level Chokheli already faced in Bellator.
The thesis is: Levan Chokheli wins because he has the knockout power that attacks Shahbazyan's one and only hole, since all four of Leon's career losses came by KO/TKO (ESPN data cross-checked with Tapology), because 11 of the Georgian's 14 wins came by knockout inside two rounds while Leon has just one career KO, and because Shahbazyan's submission path was built entirely on the regional scene, against opposition well below the level Chokheli already faced in Bellator.
The path is Chokheli defending the first clinch attempt, controlling distance with the jab, and landing the power somewhere in the first two rounds. It collapses if Shahbazyan closes the distance early and gets it down, because he finishes off his back with the guillotine and armbar, and Chokheli was submitted in exactly that situation by Goiti Yamauchi in 2022.
Conviction
MEDIUM-HIGH conviction, 6. The decisive pillar is a specific four-dimension convergence in Chokheli's favor: real knockout power (11 of 14), Shahbazyan's chin that failed in 100 percent of his losses (4 of 4 by KO), the clear calibre gap (Bellator versus the regional circuit), and the three-round experience Leon has never needed. It does not climb past 6 because the underdog path is genuinely live and not vague: Chokheli has already been armbarred on the ground. What keeps that path from becoming a coin flip is calibre: the man who submitted Chokheli was an elite black belt in Yamauchi, and Leon, beyond holding only regional-level grappling, works more off his back than from top and starts the fight with his chin exposed to the heavier hands. This is not following the market line, it is a lean on power plus Leon's fragile chin, with the ground path acknowledged as real but narrow.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
If Shahbazyan lands a clinch or takedown in the first two minutes of round one and gets it down, the fight flips: he finishes off his back with a guillotine or armbar, and Chokheli has already proven catchable there against Yamauchi.
- 02
If Chokheli reverts to the cautious management rhythm that produced his decisions against wrestlers (Faraldo, Lombardo) instead of hunting the knockout, he gives Shahbazyan the time and space to get into the grappling.
- 03
If Shahbazyan's chin holds up to the first clean power shot, the three-round fight starts to favor the man with more late-finish paths, and the grappler gains ground.
Underdog Path
Shahbazyan absorbs minimal risk in the early exchange, uses his reach to close the distance into the clinch, drags it down or accepts bottom position, works an active guard, and locks up a guillotine or armbar. Alternatively, he forces the fight to a full three rounds where the grappling volume wears Chokheli down. It is the same recipe Yamauchi used to finish him and Crutchmer used to grind out a decision, with the caveat that both of those men were a clear level above the opposition Leon has beaten.
Required Conditions
- Get the fight to the mat or into a prolonged clinch before eating the clean power shot
- Survive the first honest standing exchange, since the chin is the documented weak point
- Attack the submission off his back with a guillotine or armbar, or wear the Georgian down across three rounds
— Precedent: Goiti Yamauchi submitted Chokheli by armbar in round one at Bellator 279 in 2022. Kyle Crutchmer dragged the Georgian to a three-round decision at Bellator 260 in 2021, the first time Chokheli had gone the full three rounds in his career.
Verdict
Winner
Levan Chokheli
Method
TKO
Most Likely
- 01
How it ends (either fighter)
Fight does NOT go to decision
The fight does not go the distance because both men are extreme finishers: Chokheli knocked out 11 of 14 and Shahbazyan submitted 11 of 12, always early. The market tends to inflate the decision odds on double debuts full of uncertainty, but the combined finishing history here is heavy. It breaks if Chokheli reverts to the management mode of his decisions against wrestlers.
- 02
Method
Chokheli by KO/TKO
If Chokheli wins, the likeliest shape is the knockout, because all four of Shahbazyan's career losses were by KO/TKO and the Georgian finishes inside two rounds. The market prices the favorite too short on the straight line, so splitting out the method returns more. It breaks if Leon gets it to the mat before the power arrives.
- 03
Method (underdog)
Shahbazyan by submission
An underdog play with real logic, not a dart throw: Shahbazyan submits 92 percent of his wins and Chokheli has already been caught by armbar on the ground. It is a longshot, not a conviction, because Leon still has to drag down a knockout artist who wants range and has never finished anyone near the Georgian's calibre. It breaks if the fight stays standing.
Most Likely Outcome
Fight does not go to decision
It is the play most aligned with the analysis: it does not depend on guessing WHO wins, only on the fact that both men finish early. MEDIUM-HIGH conviction means Chokheli is the right side, but the heavy-favorite price pays too little given the underdog's real submission path. Capturing the nature of the fight without faking certainty about the winner is the cleanest angle.
Stats That Matter
100%
of Shahbazyan's losses came by knockout (4 of 4)
No submission or decision losses in his career. The chin is the only hole.
11 of 14
Chokheli wins by KO/TKO, nearly all inside two rounds
Genuine power, the exact archetype that exploits Leon's hole
1
time Chokheli was submitted on the ground (armbar, Yamauchi 2022)
The door Shahbazyan's submission game is trying to open
The Trap
Chokheli as a safe bet on the straight line
The seductive bet will be Shahbazyan by first-round submission, pulled in by the four-finish streak and the fact Chokheli has already been caught by armbar. It is exactly the kind of pick that looks obvious and isn't: Leon's streak came entirely against regional opposition, the man who submitted Chokheli was an elite black belt (Yamauchi), and Leon's own chin, which failed in all four of his losses, is far likelier to break first. On the other side, backing Chokheli heavy on the straight line pays too little for the real ground path. If you are getting on the Georgian, the method returns more than the flat moneyline.
The seductive bet will be Shahbazyan by first-round submission, pulled in by the four-finish streak and the fact Chokheli has already been caught by armbar. It is exactly the kind of pick that looks obvious and isn't: Leon's streak came entirely against regional opposition, the man who submitted Chokheli was an elite black belt (Yamauchi), and Leon's own chin, which failed in all four of his losses, is far likelier to break first. On the other side, backing Chokheli heavy on the straight line pays too little for the real ground path. If you are getting on the Georgian, the method returns more than the flat moneyline.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Leon "S.O.G." Shahbazyan vs Levan Chokheli | UFC Fight Night: Kape vs Horiguchi | June 20, 2026 | Meta APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
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