June 27, 2026 · National Gymnastics Arena, Baku
Sadykhov
11-2-1
UnrankedAzerbaijan | 32 years old
Camilo
10-3-0
UnrankedRio Branco, Brazil | 25 years old
The Black Wolf Comes Home
Sadykhov has never fought in Azerbaijan. Now he walks into Baku with the home crowd behind him and the heavier hands in the matchup. Camilo needs the mat, but that's where he's been submitted all three times he's lost.
O PONTO QUE DECIDE
The Mat Cuts Both Ways
Everybody looks at this fight and sees the same plan for Camilo: take Sadykhov down and grind him out on top. On the surface it makes sense. The Black Wolf absorbs 5.49 significant strikes per minute with just 49% striking defense, and it was on the mat, eating ground-and-pound, that Fares Ziam finished him in December. The blueprint is real. But there's a detail that flips the logic on its head. All three of Camilo's career losses came by submission. Every one. The most recent was a rear-naked choke from Gabe Green in his UFC debut. He's the more technical grappler here, a freshly minted black belt, and yet the mat is exactly where he's been finished his whole career. And Sadykhov isn't just a banger: he has two rear-naked chokes on his record, one of them on Terrance McKinney. Dragging this fight to the ground is Camilo's plan and also the place he's most at risk.
Everybody looks at this fight and sees the same plan for Camilo: take Sadykhov down and grind him out on top. On the surface it makes sense. The Black Wolf absorbs 5.49 significant strikes per minute with just 49% striking defense, and it was on the mat, eating ground-and-pound, that Fares Ziam finished him in December. The blueprint is real. But there's a detail that flips the logic on its head. All three of Camilo's career losses came by submission. Every one. The most recent was a rear-naked choke from Gabe Green in his UFC debut. He's the more technical grappler here, a freshly minted black belt, and yet the mat is exactly where he's been finished his whole career. And Sadykhov isn't just a banger: he has two rear-naked chokes on his record, one of them on Terrance McKinney. Dragging this fight to the ground is Camilo's plan and also the place he's most at risk.
Truth A
Camilo's path is real. He averages 4.43 takedowns per 15 minutes, put Borshchev on the mat five times in his last fight, and Sadykhov just showed against Ziam that he caves when the opponent imposes the fight on the floor.
Truth B
But Camilo lost by submission in all three defeats, and Sadykhov hunts the neck when the fight hits the ground. On top of that, the Brazilian lands just 2.19 significant strikes per minute: to get to the takedown, he has to walk through the punching range of a guy with 8 knockouts, at home.
Tale of the Tape
Camilo is 7 years younger
Nearly identical, a hair of reach for Camilo
Current Form
Nazim Sadykhov
UFC 323. Controlled on the mat from start to finish, gave up his back and ate elbows in ground-and-pound. First UFC loss and the blueprint to beat the Black Wolf: drag him out of the striking match.
TKO R2Starched Motta with a right hook and follow-up in the second round, in front of the Azerbaijani crowd. The kind of heavy hands that define his career.
KO R2UFC Vegas 102. Dominated the opening round and the fight ended on a doctor's stoppage between rounds, when the doctor checked Bonfim's vision. Short but one-sided.
TKO R1UFC 295. A flat-out striking war that ended in a draw on the cards, one of the best prelims of the year.
DrawTook the back and locked the rear-naked choke in round two, proof his game isn't just heavy hands. He has plenty of finishing in the bag.
Sub R2He was on fire until the last one. Three finishes and four wins across the five bouts before the stumble, including a knockout of Motta in front of the Azerbaijani crowd in Las Vegas. Then came Ziam, who controlled him on the mat and finished him with ground-and-pound, his first UFC loss. Now he fights in Azerbaijan for the first time, in Baku, his parents' homeland. It's a rebuild with the crowd behind him, and Camilo's style, the one that wants the ground, is the same door Ziam walked through. The difference is the Brazilian hits a lot lighter.
Matheus Camilo
UFC 322, at Madison Square Garden. Took Borshchev down five times and racked up over three minutes of control to win the decision. Proof his takedown game works at the high level.
Unanimous DecisionUFC debut. Took the fight to the ground and got submitted by rear-naked choke in the second round. Same story as the other losses: finished on the mat.
Sub R2Dana White: Lookin' for a Fight. Dominated Nabotov on the cards for a unanimous decision and earned his UFC contract. A mature performance for his age.
Unanimous DecisionWon a unanimous decision on the regional circuit, building the streak that carried him to the Contender stage.
Unanimous DecisionSubmission off a triangle-armbar combination in the third round, showing the jiu-jitsu base that anchors his style.
Sub R3A 25-year-old on the rise, 1-1 in the UFC. He lost his debut to a Gabe Green rear-naked choke, but bounced back to beat the tough Borshchev by decision at Madison Square Garden, scoring five takedowns and piling up control time. He's a real grappler, a recently promoted black belt under Dede Pederneiras, with 4.43 takedowns per 15 minutes. The problem is the full package: he hits light, lands just 2.19 significant strikes per minute, and he has to cross a knockout artist's range to get inside, at home for the other guy. And when the fight has gone to the ground against good opposition, he's the one who's gotten finished.
Level of Competition
Both men have faced Viacheslav Borshchev, and by opposite roads. Sadykhov got into a flat-out striking war with him in 2023 and walked away with a draw in one of the best prelims of the year. Camilo faced that same Borshchev in 2025 and chose the inverse: five takedowns and a control-based win. That contrast is the whole fight in a nutshell, Sadykhov wants to trade, Camilo wants the ground. On level of opposition it's even and modest, neither man has cracked the top of the lightweight division yet.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes por Minuto
Sadykhov produces more than double the volume per minute
Precisão de Strikes (%)
Strikes Absorvidos/Min
Both absorb too much, but Sadykhov is the easier man to hit
Defesa de Strikes (%)
Takedowns por 15 Min
Camilo's central weapon: he lives on takedowns, Sadykhov barely shoots
Precisão de Takedown (%)
Defesa de Takedown (%)
Sadykhov's 72% against Camilo's main path. Not elite, and Ziam showed it can be cracked
Submissões por 15 Min
Sadykhov leads in 3 categories · Camilo leads in 5
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
The win profiles tell the story. Sadykhov is a pure knockout artist: 8 of his 11 wins by KO/TKO, 73%, plus two rear-naked chokes that prove he also hunts finishes when the fight hits the floor. Camilo is more spread out and patient: 4 knockouts, 2 submissions and 4 decisions, the mark of a grappler who usually wins on control and the cards, not on impact. For the method here, that's decisive. Sadykhov needs a moment of impact, and his hands show up almost every time. Camilo needs time, control and mat, exactly what's hardest to get against a heavy hitter with the crowd at his back.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
This is where the fight is decided. Camilo lost by submission in all three of his career defeats, 100%, including the Gabe Green rear-naked choke in his UFC debut. The more technical grappler in this matchup is also the one who gets finished most on the mat, and Sadykhov has two rear-naked chokes on his record. On the other side, the Black Wolf has a rarer loss profile: one submission way back in 2018, early in his career, and one TKO, the Ziam fight, which came off ground control and ground-and-pound. So the blueprint to beat Sadykhov is to take it down and dominate, exactly what Camilo wants to do. The catch is that Camilo is vulnerable on the same terrain where he'd need to be dominant. It's a paradox that cuts against the underdog.
Skills Profile
Sadykhov
vs
Camilo
Striking em Distância
+2 Sadykhov
Sadykhov lands more than double the volume and switches stances to create angles. Camilo is reactive and hits light, 2.19 strikes per minute.
Striking em Curta Distância
+3 Sadykhov
In the pocket, Sadykhov's heavy hands rule. That's how he flattened Motta and stopped Bonfim. Camilo doesn't want to be here.
Poder de Nocaute
+4 Sadykhov
8 KOs in 11 wins for Sadykhov against 4 for Camilo, and neither of the Brazilian's came at UFC level. A big gap in pop.
Defesa de Striking
+1 Camilo
Camilo has 64% defense to Sadykhov's 49%, but he's the slower man. The Black Wolf absorbs a lot, yet he's the one dictating range.
Grappling e Clinch
+2 Camilo
Camilo is the more active, more technical grappler, a black belt with 4.43 takedowns per 15. But all three of his losses came by submission, and Sadykhov has two rear-naked chokes on his record.
Cardio (5 rounds)
+1 Camilo
Camilo is younger and fresher, but it's a three-round fight and Sadykhov has held up in five-minute wars without fading.
On the feet it's Sadykhov's show: more volume, more pop, more experience trading. On the ground Camilo is the more technical, more active man. The whole fight orbits one question: can the Brazilian walk through the Black Wolf's punching range to land the takedown, and if he does, does he survive the neck-hunting of a man who's already submitted opponents in the UFC? The Baku crowd makes that climb even steeper.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
The thesis is: Nazim Sadykhov wins because he's the far better striker, landing 4.79 significant strikes per minute to Camilo's 2.19 with 8 knockouts in 11 wins, and the Brazilian has to walk through that punching range to reach the only weapon he has against him, the takedown, because Camilo's only path is the ground, and that's exactly where he was submitted in all three of his career losses, while Sadykhov has two rear-naked chokes on his record and hunts the neck whenever the fight hits the floor, and because the fight is in Baku, Sadykhov's first time in Azerbaijan, with the crowd from his parents' homeland behind a man who has already fed off a friendly building when he flattened Motta.
The thesis is: Nazim Sadykhov wins because he's the far better striker, landing 4.79 significant strikes per minute to Camilo's 2.19 with 8 knockouts in 11 wins, and the Brazilian has to walk through that punching range to reach the only weapon he has against him, the takedown, because Camilo's only path is the ground, and that's exactly where he was submitted in all three of his career losses, while Sadykhov has two rear-naked chokes on his record and hunts the neck whenever the fight hits the floor, and because the fight is in Baku, Sadykhov's first time in Azerbaijan, with the crowd from his parents' homeland behind a man who has already fed off a friendly building when he flattened Motta.
The path is Sadykhov controlling range, making Camilo pay every time he tries to shoot, and the heavy hands showing up the moment the Brazilian exposes himself closing distance. It breaks down if Camilo lands clean takedowns early, the way he did five times against Borshchev, and runs the Ziam blueprint: control on the ground, take the back and manage the ground-and-pound over three rounds.
Conviction
Conviction 7 because the thesis leans on four distinct dimensions all converging on the same side. Stats and style: Sadykhov has more than double the volume, eight knockouts and the fight-deciding hands, against a grappler who hits light and has to walk through that range to even exist in the fight. Level of competition and qualitative read: Camilo lost by submission in all three defeats, all on the very terrain where he'd have to dominate, and the fight is in Baku with Sadykhov's crowd. What holds the conviction at 7 instead of 8 is that the underdog path is concrete and documented: Ziam just showed, six months ago, that you can control and stop Sadykhov on the mat, and Camilo averages 4.43 takedowns per 15 minutes. This isn't a market read, even if the market agrees: the edge comes from the power gap, the punching range and the paradox of Camilo being vulnerable exactly where he'd need to be strong.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
If Camilo lands clean takedowns in round one, the way he put Borshchev down five times, and stabilizes top control, he pulls Sadykhov out of the striking match and the knockout thesis never happens.
- 02
If Sadykhov rushes the knockout at home, over-pressures and opens his hips to the shot, he hands Camilo exactly the clinch range the Brazilian needs.
- 03
If the recent Ziam loss left a mark, and Sadykhov comes in more reactive or with a shaken chin, Camilo could find the takedown with less resistance than the 72% defense suggests.
- 04
If a three-round fight hits the mat and stays there, Camilo's control and jiu-jitsu can steal the cards even without a finish.
Underdog Path
Camilo refuses the bait to trade, closes distance in the clinch and shoots early, the way he did five times against Borshchev. On the ground, he stabilizes top control, avoids Sadykhov's neck-hunting, and manages three rounds piling up control time and light ground-and-pound. It's the Ziam blueprint run by the more technical grappler, stealing the cards on control instead of chasing the impact he doesn't have.
Required Conditions
- Land clean takedowns early, cracking Sadykhov's 72% defense the way Ziam cracked it at UFC 323
- Refuse to trade at punching range and get inside through the clinch without paying for it
- Stabilize top control without exposing the neck, avoiding Sadykhov's rear-naked-choke game
- Sustain the takedown-and-control rhythm from start to finish over three rounds, never giving room for a comeback
— Precedent: Ziam vs Sadykhov (UFC 323, December 2025): the Frenchman controlled on the mat, took the back and stopped Sadykhov with ground-and-pound, showing the Black Wolf caves when the opponent imposes the fight on the floor. Camilo is an even more dedicated grappler, though he hits a lot lighter and has the crowd against him in Baku.
Verdict
Winner
Nazim Sadykhov
Method
TKO
Most Likely
- 01
Winner
Nazim Sadykhov
Sadykhov because he's the far better striker, at home, against a grappler who hits light and has to cross punching range to exist. The market already sees it, so there's no fat edge here, it's a moderate stake on a pricey line. Breaks if Camilo takes him down early and dominates on top.
- 02
Método
Sadykhov by KO/TKO
Sadykhov by knockout because the heavy hands show up in nearly every fight, 8 KOs in 11 wins, and Camilo has to enter punching range to shoot. The price pays well on the favorite's most likely weapon. Breaks if the Brazilian closes through the clinch without trading and gets it down.
- 03
Como termina (qualquer lutador)
Fight does not go to decision
Doesn't reach the cards because Sadykhov finishes on the feet and Camilo has been submitted in all three of his losses. Both impact paths point to an early ending. Breaks if Camilo gets it down and manages three rounds of control without chasing a finish.
- 04
Vencedor azarão
Camilo by decision
Camilo by decision because it's the cleanest way the underdog wins: takedowns early, top control and cards stolen on dominance, the Ziam blueprint. The market underrates how much his takedown game bothers people. Breaks if he exposes the neck on the ground or gets caught at range before he can shoot.
Most Likely Outcome
Sadykhov by KO/TKO, moderate stake
It's the soundest read in the analysis: the power gap and Camilo's obligation to cross punching range favor the knockout. But conviction 7 with a concrete takedown path means don't oversize it, Camilo's ground control is a real threat.
Stats That Matter
3 of 3
of Camilo's career losses came by submission
On the very ground where he'd need to dominate Sadykhov
4.79
significant strikes per minute for Sadykhov, against Camilo's 2.19
More than double the volume on the feet
AT HOME
Sadykhov's first career fight in Azerbaijan
The Baku crowd that already pushed him past Motta
The Trap
Camilo by submission
The public will look at Camilo's black belt, see the Ziam choke that stopped Sadykhov, and bet the Brazilian by submission, assuming the ground solves it. But the math is inverted. Camilo's three losses all came by submission, and Sadykhov is the one with two rear-naked chokes on his record. If this hits the floor, it's likelier that Sadykhov submits Camilo than the other way around. If the Brazilian wins, the realistic route is a decision on control, not the jiu-jitsu finish his own record argues against.
The public will look at Camilo's black belt, see the Ziam choke that stopped Sadykhov, and bet the Brazilian by submission, assuming the ground solves it. But the math is inverted. Camilo's three losses all came by submission, and Sadykhov is the one with two rear-naked chokes on his record. If this hits the floor, it's likelier that Sadykhov submits Camilo than the other way around. If the Brazilian wins, the realistic route is a decision on control, not the jiu-jitsu finish his own record argues against.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Nazim "Black Wolf" Sadykhov vs Matheus "Jaguar" Camilo | UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs Torres | June 27, 2026 | National Gymnastics Arena, Baku
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