October 3, 2026 · Delta Center, Salt Lake City, United States
Rodriguez
7-0-0
UnrankedEnsenada, Mexico | 26 years old
Coria
13-3-0
UnrankedHouston, Texas, USA | 28 years old | 1 no contest
Unbeaten Power vs. Range
Six knockouts in seven wins on one side. On the other, a 3-0 UFC run and no knockout losses in 16 fights with an official result. In Salt Lake City, the Mexican prospect's explosiveness runs into the Houston fighter's jab and length.
Conviction
Conviction 2 because the edge is razor-thin, the samples are short and the mat doesn't break the tie. Rodriguez has under 12 minutes of UFC and Contender Series cage time, and Coria's UFC opponents have all been unranked. Rodriguez's power and Coria's durability are the same class of evidence and weigh the same: six knockouts in seven wins, four of them regional, one on the Contender Series and one in the UFC, with two opponents stopped in 11:33 at those two levels, against Coria's 16 fights with an official result and no knockout loss. Both are finite observed exposure; neither is immunity, neither is a sure thing. In my judgment they offset. The aggregates stay out: Coria defends more (70% to 58%), Rodriguez lands more and more accurately (5.71 to 4.05 per minute, 56% to 42%), and Rodriguez's numbers come from two fights, UFC and Contender Series, mostly the Borjas fight (9:21 of 11:33). The single-fight vulnerabilities get the same treatment: Rodriguez hurt and put down in round 1 against Borjas, Coria giving up at least four takedowns to Nicoll, both winning anyway. Each supports the other man's route, and neither becomes a comparative edge. On the mat, access favors Rodriguez, but his takedown has landed once in the UFC and the Contender Series (1 of 3 in 11:33), against Borjas, and the recap says he didn't do much damage on top. The only duration figure, more than three minutes of control in the round, comes from a single recap and isn't confirmed in the official stats. Coria beat Nicoll 30-27, 30-27 and 29-28 despite giving up takedowns and has more documented top work in the UFC, against Costa and Gurule. So the mat stays even and wide open. That leaves Coria's reach, small and more about the measurements than a head-to-head read of their striking (four inches taller with 2.5 inches more reach), and that's what tips the pick, only a little, right at the edge of a pick'em. His uppercut isn't part of it, since no recap says it came off an opponent's entries. Duration carries nothing: Rodriguez's gas tank over three pro rounds is unknown. The biggest risk is Rodriguez's right hand. The 50% figure is an editorial estimate, not a calibrated one.
Conviction 2 because the edge is razor-thin, the samples are short and the mat doesn't break the tie. Rodriguez has under 12 minutes of UFC and Contender Series cage time, and Coria's UFC opponents have all been unranked. Rodriguez's power and Coria's durability are the same class of evidence and weigh the same: six knockouts in seven wins, four of them regional, one on the Contender Series and one in the UFC, with two opponents stopped in 11:33 at those two levels, against Coria's 16 fights with an official result and no knockout loss. Both are finite observed exposure; neither is immunity, neither is a sure thing. In my judgment they offset. The aggregates stay out: Coria defends more (70% to 58%), Rodriguez lands more and more accurately (5.71 to 4.05 per minute, 56% to 42%), and Rodriguez's numbers come from two fights, UFC and Contender Series, mostly the Borjas fight (9:21 of 11:33). The single-fight vulnerabilities get the same treatment: Rodriguez hurt and put down in round 1 against Borjas, Coria giving up at least four takedowns to Nicoll, both winning anyway. Each supports the other man's route, and neither becomes a comparative edge. On the mat, access favors Rodriguez, but his takedown has landed once in the UFC and the Contender Series (1 of 3 in 11:33), against Borjas, and the recap says he didn't do much damage on top. The only duration figure, more than three minutes of control in the round, comes from a single recap and isn't confirmed in the official stats. Coria beat Nicoll 30-27, 30-27 and 29-28 despite giving up takedowns and has more documented top work in the UFC, against Costa and Gurule. So the mat stays even and wide open. That leaves Coria's reach, small and more about the measurements than a head-to-head read of their striking (four inches taller with 2.5 inches more reach), and that's what tips the pick, only a little, right at the edge of a pick'em. His uppercut isn't part of it, since no recap says it came off an opponent's entries. Duration carries nothing: Rodriguez's gas tank over three pro rounds is unknown. The biggest risk is Rodriguez's right hand. The 50% figure is an editorial estimate, not a calibrated one.
THE BIG UNKNOWN
Will the Takedown Stick?
Rodriguez gives up four inches of height and 2.5 inches of reach. To get into his range he has to either close the distance on the feet or put Coria on the mat. Against Borjas he got hurt by a heavy left in round 1, hit the canvas, then saved himself with a takedown before scoring the knockout in round 2. Coria leaves the door open for the takedown. Nicoll, who fell to 0-4 in the UFC with that loss, took him down at least four times in July and closed round 2 with a slam. Coria still swept all three scorecards. The recaps have him popping right back up in round 1 and firing front chokes while getting up in round 3, but also landing clean uppercuts in round 1, clean shots along the cage in round 2 and steady pressure in round 3. No source says what swung the judges. Against Gurule, he reversed a shot and ended up on top. So if this goes to the mat, who gets the takedown is only half of it. What matters is what happens after. That doesn't decide the pick, which comes from the striking, but it's the biggest question hanging over one of Rodriguez's routes to the right hand. In the UFC and the Contender Series, Rodriguez has held top position once: hurt by Borjas in round 1, his takedown bought him time to recover and he closed the round landing elbows up top. Cageside Press says he didn't do much damage on top and that the elbows came once the referee called for action. One recap credits him with more than three minutes of control in that round, a number I couldn't confirm in the official stats. It's one sample, against Borjas, with Rodriguez in survival mode. If he does that to Coria, with more damage, he banks rounds and opens the door for the finish. If Coria gets up the way he did in round 1 against Nicoll, the fight goes back to the feet, where he has the reach and an uppercut that's already landed up close on Gurule and Nicoll.
Rodriguez gives up four inches of height and 2.5 inches of reach. To get into his range he has to either close the distance on the feet or put Coria on the mat. Against Borjas he got hurt by a heavy left in round 1, hit the canvas, then saved himself with a takedown before scoring the knockout in round 2. Coria leaves the door open for the takedown. Nicoll, who fell to 0-4 in the UFC with that loss, took him down at least four times in July and closed round 2 with a slam. Coria still swept all three scorecards. The recaps have him popping right back up in round 1 and firing front chokes while getting up in round 3, but also landing clean uppercuts in round 1, clean shots along the cage in round 2 and steady pressure in round 3. No source says what swung the judges. Against Gurule, he reversed a shot and ended up on top. So if this goes to the mat, who gets the takedown is only half of it. What matters is what happens after. That doesn't decide the pick, which comes from the striking, but it's the biggest question hanging over one of Rodriguez's routes to the right hand. In the UFC and the Contender Series, Rodriguez has held top position once: hurt by Borjas in round 1, his takedown bought him time to recover and he closed the round landing elbows up top. Cageside Press says he didn't do much damage on top and that the elbows came once the referee called for action. One recap credits him with more than three minutes of control in that round, a number I couldn't confirm in the official stats. It's one sample, against Borjas, with Rodriguez in survival mode. If he does that to Coria, with more damage, he banks rounds and opens the door for the finish. If Coria gets up the way he did in round 1 against Nicoll, the fight goes back to the feet, where he has the reach and an uppercut that's already landed up close on Gurule and Nicoll.
Truth A
On paper, Rodriguez is the bigger finisher: six knockouts in seven wins, four of them on the regional circuit, and he stopped both opponents he's faced in the UFC and on the Contender Series, 11:33 of cage time combined. He also has a takedown that's already bailed him out under fire. Coria gave up at least four takedowns to Nicoll; if Rodriguez gets to those positions and turns top time into damage, something his only UFC/Contender Series sample on top showed little of, he banks rounds and opens the door for the right hand.
Truth B
Coria has no knockout losses in 16 fights with an official result, has the height and reach and threatened the neck against both Gurule and Nicoll. Rodriguez has already been hurt by a left hand and put down in round 1 of his UFC debut.
Tale of the Tape
Coria is two years older
Coria is four inches taller
Coria has a 2.5-inch reach edge
Rodriguez has never gone past round 2 as a pro; his only three-rounder was the TUF exhibition
Current Form
Imanol Rodriguez
UFC debut in Mexico City. Got hurt by a heavy Borjas left and put down in round 1, landed a takedown to recover, went to work with elbows up top, then dropped Borjas with a right hand for the stoppage in round 2.
TKO R2Contender Series. Punches at 2:12 of round 1 and a UFC contract.
TKO R1Fury FC 96. First-round knockout of Alberto Trujillo, the same fighter who outpointed Coria eight months earlier.
TKO R1Fury FC 93. Another quick one, 1:50 into round 1.
TKO R1Combate Global. Rear-naked choke at 1:30 of round 1, the only submission on his record.
Submission R1Seven pro fights, seven wins, six by knockout. His UFC debut was a comeback: Borjas hurt him with a heavy left hand and put him down in round 1, he wrestled his way out of trouble and put Borjas away in round 2. Before that he won his Contender Series fight in 2:12 and lost a split decision in the TUF 33 semifinals, an exhibition that doesn't count on his record. The list below covers pro fights only, leaving out the TUF exhibitions. He hasn't fought since February 28, roughly seven months.
Alden Coria
UFC Oklahoma City. Clean uppercuts and pressure on the feet, but gave up at least four takedowns. Popped right back up in round 1 and fired front chokes while scrambling up in round 3. 30-27, 30-27, 29-28.
Unanimous DecisionUFC Houston, hometown crowd. Worked from the outside in round 1, landed the uppercut in the rounds after, reversed a Gurule shot, flashed a guillotine and took over in round 3. 30-27 on all three cards.
Unanimous DecisionShort-notice debut at Noche UFC in place of Chairez. Jab and reads in round 1, a takedown in round 2, and he finished Costa, who looked hurt in the foot, 47 seconds into round 3.
TKO R3Fury FC 104. Elbow stoppage in round 2.
TKO R2Fury FC 100. Result overturned to a no contest. The reason for the overturn wasn't confirmed in the sources we checked.
NC R13-0 in the UFC since taking his debut on short notice, stepping in for an injured Edgar Chairez and stopping Alessandro Costa in round 3. Then came two clean decisions: 30-27 across the board over Luis Gurule in Houston and a unanimous nod over Stewart Nicoll in July. He's back on roughly an 11-week turnaround. The caveat comes from that last fight: Nicoll put him on the mat several times and closed round 2 with a slam.
Level of Competition
One common opponent: Alberto Trujillo. He beat Coria by unanimous decision in January 2024 at Fury FC 85, then got knocked out by Rodriguez in round 1 in September 2024 at Fury FC 96. Different fights on different dates, so it proves nothing about this matchup. Both samples are thin: Coria has 40:47 of UFC cage time across three fights; Rodriguez has 11:33 combining the UFC and the Contender Series because he finished both early.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes Landed per Minute
Rodriguez: UFC plus Contender Series, two fights, 11:33. Coria: UFC only, three fights, 40:47. Very different sample sizes.
Striking Accuracy (%)
Sig. Strikes Absorbed per Minute
Both absorb little, but Rodriguez's 2.42 includes the round where Borjas dropped him.
Striking Defense (%)
Takedowns Landed per 15 Min
Rodriguez: one takedown in 11:33, matching the 1.30 UFC.com displays. Coria: two takedowns in 40:47, a UFC.com count that lines up with the takedowns described against Costa and Gurule. His profile displays 2.21 per 15, a figure that would take six takedowns and mirrors his strikes absorbed rate, so this row uses the rate calculated from the counts.
Takedown Accuracy (%)
Sample size: Rodriguez: 3 · Coria: 11
Rodriguez 1 of 3; Coria 2 of 11.
Takedown Defense (%)
Rodriguez: No audited count of takedowns attempted against him in the UFC and Contender Series
No audited count of attempts against Rodriguez. Coria's 56% has no published denominator; Nicoll alone landed at least four.
Submission Attempts per 15 Min
Rodriguez: 0.00 on UFC.com across 11:33 of UFC and Contender Series action. No attempts recorded in a short sample, which says little about his submission game. Coria's 1.47 counts attempts, not finishes. The per-fight breakdown wasn't verified.
Rodriguez leads in 4 categories · Coria leads in 3
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Rodriguez has never won a decision: six knockouts and a rear-naked choke, and no pro fight has gone past round 2. Coria is spread out: five knockouts, four submissions and four decisions, with his last two UFC wins going to the cards. That describes styles, not the method of this fight. Rodriguez is untested over three pro rounds, and Coria has shown he can finish too.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Rodriguez is unbeaten as a pro, so there's no loss profile to read. That isn't immunity: Borjas hurt him and put him down in round 1 and Morales took his back in the TUF exhibition. Coria has three losses, two decisions and a rear-naked choke back in 2022, and no knockout losses in the 16 fights with an official result (the 17th, against Paris Moran, was overturned to a no contest). The documented way to beat Coria has run through the scorecards or his back, not his chin.
Skills Profile
Rodriguez
vs
Coria
Distance Striking
+1 Coria
Coria is taller and longer. He opened with footwork and the jab against Costa and worked from the outside in round 1 against Gurule: those are the two documented rounds of outside work. The uppercut, a close-range punch, landed on Gurule in rounds 2 and 3; the recap doesn't say whether it came off Gurule's entries or Coria's own. Against Nicoll, the recap credits him with two clean uppercuts in round 1 without describing the range, clean shots along the cage in round 2 and steady pressure in round 3. On Rodriguez's side, his UFC debut opened with sharp kicks to the outside of Borjas' thigh until a heavy left hurt him, which cuts both ways. In the TUF exhibition, which doesn't count on his record, he had the better of it on the feet in round 2 against Morales with the jab, combinations and body hooks. Neither sample shows either man controlling range against a comparable opponent, so Coria's edge here is small and comes more from the measurements than from a head-to-head read of their striking.
Knockout Power
+2 Rodriguez
Six knockouts in seven wins: four on the regional circuit (BSC 11, BSC 15, Fury FC 93 and Fury FC 96), one on the Contender Series and one in the UFC, with the right hand that dropped Borjas before the round 2 stoppage. He stopped both his UFC and Contender Series opponents, 11:33 combined, an even shorter sample than Coria's 40:47. Coria's UFC knockdown average is 0.00 across 40:47 of cage time in three fights. That's a short sample, not a description of how he hurts people: he has five knockout wins on his record, via punches, a knee and elbows, and he stopped Costa in round 3 of his UFC debut.
Takedowns and Top Game
Even
Counting pro fights only, both men have a case. Rodriguez: 1 of 3 takedowns across 11:33 in the UFC and the Contender Series. The one that landed, against Borjas, stuck and bought him time to recover, but the recap says he didn't do much damage on top and the elbows came once the referee called for action. Coria: 2 of 11 takedowns in the UFC. He put Costa down with a bodylock, got swept with a kimura that gave Costa his back, then worked back on top with ground-and-pound; against Gurule, he reversed a shot into top position and took him down with ease in round 3. His weak spot is defense: he gave up at least four takedowns to Nicoll and ended round 2 under a slam, though he popped up fast in round 1 and attacked the neck while getting up in round 3. The TUF exhibition, which doesn't count on Rodriguez's record, cuts both ways: Morales took him down inside 90 seconds and took his back with a body triangle in round 1, and in round 3 it was Rodriguez riding Morales' back for nearly four minutes. Takedown access favors Rodriguez; documented UFC top work favors Coria. Call it even.
Striking Defense
+1 Coria
70% vs. 58% on paper, from very different samples: Rodriguez's 58% comes almost entirely from the Borjas fight, where a left hand hurt him and put him down in round 1. That's one fight, and he won it. It stays out of the pick: the offensive numbers go Rodriguez's way and come from the same short samples.
Submission Threat
+1 Coria
Four submission wins for Coria. In the UFC he flashed a guillotine after reversing Gurule's shot and fired front chokes while getting up against Nicoll. Those were attempts with no recorded payoff: Nicoll still landed at least four takedowns. Rodriguez has one RNC win and rode Morales' back for nearly four minutes without a finish in the TUF exhibition, which doesn't count on his record.
Three-Round Cardio
Even
Coria has gone the full 15 twice in the UFC. Rodriguez has never seen round 3 as a pro, so his three-round gas tank is unknown, not bad. The one three-round sample that exists cuts against a late fade: in the TUF exhibition he had the better of it on the feet in round 2 and rode Morales' back for nearly four minutes with ground-and-pound in round 3. It's an exhibition, not his pro record, so this one stays even.
Rodriguez wins the explosive moments: closing the distance, hitting the takedown, landing the right hand. Coria wins on reach, but his edge in the outside exchanges is small. The mat is an open question. Access belongs to Rodriguez, because Coria gave up at least four takedowns to Nicoll and ended round 2 under a slam. The rest doesn't tilt his way: his only UFC/Contender Series sample on top produced little damage, while Coria has more documented top work in the UFC and swept the cards against Nicoll despite those takedowns. Duration is an unknown on Rodriguez's side, not a point for Coria: he's never seen round 3 as a pro, but he finished strong in round 3 of the TUF exhibition. On the feet, Rodriguez's power and Coria's durability offset, and what's left is Coria's small reach edge. That's where the pick comes from. The mat doesn't decide it: it's the biggest unknown on one of Rodriguez's routes to the right hand, namely how long he can keep Coria underneath and what he does with him there.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
Conviction2/10The thesis: Alden Coria wins a decision in a fight right at the edge of a pick'em, because, in my judgment, Rodriguez's power and Coria's durability offset and what's left is Coria's reach. Power and durability are the same class of evidence: Rodriguez's six knockouts in seven wins, four of them regional, one on the Contender Series and one in the UFC, with two opponents stopped in 11:33 of UFC and Contender Series action; Coria's zero knockout losses in 16 fights with an official result. Both are finite observed exposure, neither is immunity or a sure thing, and they get the same weight. Coria has four inches of height and 2.5 inches of reach, with outside work documented in two opening rounds (round 1 against Costa and round 1 against Gurule); it's a small edge, more about the measurements than a head-to-head read of their striking. The aggregates split (Coria defends more, Rodriguez lands more and more accurately, in a sample that's mostly one fight) and stay out of the pick. The two single-fight vulnerabilities get the same treatment: Rodriguez got hurt and put down in round 1 against Borjas and won; Coria gave up at least four takedowns to Nicoll and won. Each feeds the other man's route, and neither breaks the tie. The mat, the biggest unknown on one of Rodriguez's routes, is even and wide open. Duration isn't an edge for either man. The method is a decision because Coria's last two UFC wins went 15 minutes to the cards; his knockout is the real alternative. It falls apart if Rodriguez's right hand lands the way it did on Borjas, or if he keeps Coria down and turns top position into damage.
The thesis: Alden Coria wins a decision in a fight right at the edge of a pick'em, because, in my judgment, Rodriguez's power and Coria's durability offset and what's left is Coria's reach. Power and durability are the same class of evidence: Rodriguez's six knockouts in seven wins, four of them regional, one on the Contender Series and one in the UFC, with two opponents stopped in 11:33 of UFC and Contender Series action; Coria's zero knockout losses in 16 fights with an official result. Both are finite observed exposure, neither is immunity or a sure thing, and they get the same weight. Coria has four inches of height and 2.5 inches of reach, with outside work documented in two opening rounds (round 1 against Costa and round 1 against Gurule); it's a small edge, more about the measurements than a head-to-head read of their striking. The aggregates split (Coria defends more, Rodriguez lands more and more accurately, in a sample that's mostly one fight) and stay out of the pick. The two single-fight vulnerabilities get the same treatment: Rodriguez got hurt and put down in round 1 against Borjas and won; Coria gave up at least four takedowns to Nicoll and won. Each feeds the other man's route, and neither breaks the tie. The mat, the biggest unknown on one of Rodriguez's routes, is even and wide open. Duration isn't an edge for either man. The method is a decision because Coria's last two UFC wins went 15 minutes to the cards; his knockout is the real alternative. It falls apart if Rodriguez's right hand lands the way it did on Borjas, or if he keeps Coria down and turns top position into damage.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
If Rodriguez's right hand lands the way it did on Borjas, Coria's durability stops offsetting the power and this could end early.
- 02
If Rodriguez lands the first takedown, Coria can't get up within seconds and the position turns into damage, something Rodriguez didn't show on top of Borjas, the mat stops being even and becomes his.
- 03
If Rodriguez uses the leg kicks to get inside without paying for the reach gap, the one edge Coria has left loses weight.
- 04
If Coria gives up takedowns at the rate he did against Nicoll and the judges reward Rodriguez's top time, the decision can swing the other way.
- 05
If Rodriguez trades on the feet without getting hurt the way Borjas hurt him in round 1 and keeps up the volume from his short sample, his offensive numbers start to count.
Underdog Path
Rodriguez uses feints and kicks to close the distance, mixes in the takedown early and, instead of letting Coria up, settles on top with elbows and back takes. With Coria worried about the shot, the right hand finds a home on the feet and ends it in round 1 or 2, or he banks two rounds of top time.
Required Conditions
- Turn takedowns into stable positions, not pauses of a few seconds
- Keep his neck safe in the scrambles, where Coria went after it against Gurule and Nicoll
- Avoid eating a heavy shot like the Borjas left hand that hurt him and put him down in round 1 of his debut
- Keep the pace if it goes past round 2, territory he hasn't tested as a pro
— Precedent: Rodriguez vs. Borjas (UFC, February 2026): hurt in round 1, he used a takedown to recover and scored the knockout in round 2. On TUF 33 he rode Morales' back for nearly four minutes in round 3 of an exhibition bout.
Verdict
Winner
Alden Coria
Method
Decision
Most likely winner
Alden "Cobra" Coria wins
Rodriguez's power and Coria's durability carry the same weight and cancel out. On one side, six knockouts in seven wins, four on the regional circuit, one on the Contender Series and one in the UFC, and two opponents stopped in 11:33 of UFC and Contender Series action. On the other, no knockout losses in Coria's 16 fights with an official result. Both are finite observed exposure, not immunity and not a sure thing. The aggregates split: Coria defends more (70% to 58%), Rodriguez lands more and more accurately (5.71 to 4.05 per minute, 56% to 42%), and Rodriguez's numbers come mostly from the Borjas fight, so they stay out of the pick. The single-fight vulnerabilities get the same treatment: Rodriguez got hurt and put down in round 1 against Borjas and won; Coria gave up at least four takedowns to Nicoll and won. Each is evidence for the other man's route, not a comparative edge. The mat, the biggest unknown on one of Rodriguez's routes, is even and wide open: Rodriguez has the access, but his only UFC/Contender Series sample on top produced little damage, and Coria has more top work in the UFC, against Costa and Gurule. Duration isn't part of it: Rodriguez has never seen round 3 as a pro because he finished his fights first, which is a missing test rather than a flaw. That leaves Coria's reach, four inches of height and 2.5 inches of reach, with outside work documented in round 1 against Costa and round 1 against Gurule. It's a small edge, more about the measurements than a head-to-head read of their striking, and it's what tips the fight. Decision, because his last two UFC wins went 15 minutes to the cards. The other side is real: Rodriguez stopped both his UFC and Contender Series opponents, and his takedown has already turned a fight. The margin is razor-thin, right at the edge of a pick'em, and this is an editorial estimate, not a calibrated one.
Stats That Matter
0
knockout losses for Coria in 16 pro fights with an official result
Two decision losses and one rear-naked choke
11:33
of Rodriguez cage time across the UFC and Contender Series
Against Coria's 40:47 in the UFC alone. Three pro rounds are still untested
4
takedowns Coria gave up to Nicoll, at minimum
He still won all three scorecards: 30-27, 30-27 and 29-28
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Imanol "Himan" Rodriguez vs Alden "Cobra" Coria | UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang | October 3, 2026 | Delta Center, Salt Lake City, United States
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