July 11, 2026 · T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Riley
13-0-0
UnrankedWhiston, England | 27 years old
Kamaka III
18-7-1
UnrankedHonolulu, Hawaii (USA) | 31 years old
The Finisher and the Unbreakable
Luke Riley arrives undefeated, nine knockouts, a Performance of the Night in his debut. Kai Kamaka III has been cleanly finished exactly once in 26 fights. Someone is about to lose what they've never lost.
O PONTO QUE DECIDE
The Finisher vs. The Man Who Won't Fall
Kai Kamaka III is every prospect's nightmare. In 26 pro fights, the Hawaiian has been cleanly finished exactly once — a ground-and-pound TKO to Jonathan Pearce in 2020 — and has never been submitted. Five of his seven losses came by decision, four of them splits. Translation: he doesn't get blown out. He makes you earn every second of the 15 minutes and then hands the bill to the judges. That resume was built against real names — Henry Corrales, Bubba Jenkins, Pedro Carvalho, former PFL champ Brendan Loughnane. Kamaka is the classic gatekeeper: tough, experienced, and always right there on the cards. Across from him stands the exact opposite. Luke Riley is 27, 13-0, nine knockouts, and he arrived in the UFC by flattening Romania's Bogdan Grad with a left hook in his debut — a $50,000 Performance of the Night. He absorbs almost nothing (3.32 strikes a minute), hits harder, and he's the fresher man. The question isn't whether Riley is the better athlete or the cleaner striker — he is, and the market agrees. The question is whether a prospect with two UFC fights and a 38% takedown-defense sample can put away, or out-point across the close moments, a veteran who has never truly fallen and who feeds on young men's urgency. If this stays a striking match, Riley wins comfortably. If Kamaka drags it into the wrestling-and-split-decision swamp, the undefeated record meets its first real veteran test.
Kai Kamaka III is every prospect's nightmare. In 26 pro fights, the Hawaiian has been cleanly finished exactly once — a ground-and-pound TKO to Jonathan Pearce in 2020 — and has never been submitted. Five of his seven losses came by decision, four of them splits. Translation: he doesn't get blown out. He makes you earn every second of the 15 minutes and then hands the bill to the judges. That resume was built against real names — Henry Corrales, Bubba Jenkins, Pedro Carvalho, former PFL champ Brendan Loughnane. Kamaka is the classic gatekeeper: tough, experienced, and always right there on the cards. Across from him stands the exact opposite. Luke Riley is 27, 13-0, nine knockouts, and he arrived in the UFC by flattening Romania's Bogdan Grad with a left hook in his debut — a $50,000 Performance of the Night. He absorbs almost nothing (3.32 strikes a minute), hits harder, and he's the fresher man. The question isn't whether Riley is the better athlete or the cleaner striker — he is, and the market agrees. The question is whether a prospect with two UFC fights and a 38% takedown-defense sample can put away, or out-point across the close moments, a veteran who has never truly fallen and who feeds on young men's urgency. If this stays a striking match, Riley wins comfortably. If Kamaka drags it into the wrestling-and-split-decision swamp, the undefeated record meets its first real veteran test.
Tale of the Tape
Riley is four years younger and far fresher in career mileage
Riley has a 2-inch height edge
Identical reach. Kamaka is the more compact man
The experience gulf. 13 fights to 26, with the Hawaiian having seen it all
Current Form
Luke Riley
UFC Fight Night (Evloev vs. Murphy). A mature unanimous decision over American Michael Aswell in a co-main event. Showed Riley can win on the cards, not just by knockout. Second UFC win.
Unanimous DecisionUFC Qatar. Octagon debut: he survived a tricky round 1 and switched off Romania's Grad with a left hook to the chin at 0:30 of round 2. Performance of the Night, a $50,000 bonus.
KO/TKO R2Cage Warriors 185. Stopped Azerbaijan's Tariel Abbasov with knees and punches in round 2. Another finish in the run that forced the UFC's hand.
TKO R2Cage Warriors 178. First-round knockout of Alexandre Junior. Early finishing power, the Englishman's calling card.
KO/TKO R1Cage Warriors 168. Unanimous decision over John de Jesus. Proof he can handle three rounds when the finish doesn't show up.
Unanimous DecisionRiley is one of the hottest prospects in the featherweight division. He's 13-0 and comes in off two UFC wins: the Grad knockout that earned Performance of the Night in his debut, then a mature unanimous decision over Michael Aswell in a co-main event, proving he can also win across three rounds when the finish doesn't come. Before that, 11-0 in Cage Warriors with a pile of stoppages. At 27, training alongside Paddy Pimblett out of Next Generation in Liverpool, he carries real hype. The honest caveat is a still-modest level of opposition and just two fights of Octagon mileage.
Kai Kamaka III
Short-notice UFC return at lightweight. Split decision over Dakota Hope. Kamaka in his purest form: a tight fight, a split card, his hand raised at the end.
Split DecisionOn the regional circuit, stopped Michel Lima by TKO in round 3. One of the rare finishes in a career built on decisions.
KO/TKO R3Five-round title fight against veteran Diego Brandao. Lost a split decision after 25 minutes. Proof of championship cardio and that he never goes away easy.
Split DecisionUnanimous decision over Sitik Muduev on the regional scene. Another three rounds, another one decided on the cards.
Unanimous DecisionTKO in round 2 over Joshua Weems. A reminder the Hawaiian's hands still hurt when he decides to lean on them.
KO/TKO R2Kamaka is 4-1 in his last five, and the only loss was a split decision in a five-round title fight against veteran Diego Brandao. He just earned his way back into the UFC by gutting out a split decision over Dakota Hope — at lightweight, on short notice, in April. He's the portrait of the tough gatekeeper: 18-7-1, never cleanly finished by strikes beyond a 2020 ground-and-pound TKO, five of seven losses by decision (four splits). He doesn't leave easy. He forces you to earn every second. The caveat: at 31, he's cutting back down to featherweight after recent wars, and the mileage is real.
Level of Competition
Here lives the fight's biggest irony: on paper, the underdog has faced the tougher slate. Kamaka has shared the cage with Henry Corrales, Bubba Jenkins, Pedro Carvalho and former PFL champ Brendan Loughnane, plus UFC veterans Jonathan Pearce and TJ Brown. Riley built his 13-0 in Cage Warriors, beating European journeymen, and adds two UFC wins over unranked opponents, Grad and Aswell. Neither man has faced a top-5 fighter. But the veteran is the one who's already proven he can hang with names of substance, and the undefeated man is the one who's never been tested by anyone with this kind of experience. It's the classic clash between the hyped prospect and the gatekeeper who spoils the party.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes por Minuto
Similar volume, but Riley is cleaner and absorbs far less
Precisão de Strikes (%)
Kamaka lands a touch more, but pays for it in the process
Strikes Absorvidos/Min
The glaring gap. Kamaka eats a lot. Against Riley's hands, that's real danger
Defesa de Strikes (%)
Riley is much harder to hit clean
Takedowns por 15 Min
Kamaka carries the wrestling base. Riley has never attempted a takedown in the UFC
Precisão de Takedown (%)
Defesa de Takedown (%)
Riley's hole. 38% across two UFC fights, against a former state-champion wrestler. The upset's open door
Submissões por 15 Min
Kamaka has the more active submission game, but Riley won't willingly go to the mat
Riley leads in 3 categories · Kamaka III leads in 5
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
The methods tell the story. Riley is the finisher: 9 KOs in 13 wins, zero submissions, and 4 decisions that show he can also hold three rounds. Kamaka is the near-perfect opposite: 14 of his 18 wins came by decision (78%), with just 3 KOs and 1 submission in his entire career. One wants the impact and the highlight, the other wants the 15 minutes and the card. For the method, that's everything: Riley hunts the knockout or the clear edge, Kamaka lives on dragging it to a decision and winning the details.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
The loss profile is the heart of this fight. Kamaka has 7 defeats, but 5 came by decision (four splits), zero by submission, and only 2 by strikes: a ground-and-pound TKO to Pearce in 2020 and a doctor stoppage on a cut in 2015. In other words, across 26 fights he's been cleanly finished once. He's granite. Riley, on the other hand, is undefeated, which means his chin and his defensive holes have never truly been tested at this level. A zero-loss sample is an open question, not an answer. The practical read: Kamaka is nearly impossible to switch off, and that's exactly why the most honest method for Riley is a decision, not a knockout.
Skills Profile
Riley
vs
Kamaka III
Striking em Distância
+2 Riley
Riley is cleaner at range: he hits harder, absorbs almost nothing (3.32/min) and defends 65%. Kamaka lands, but takes a lot back.
Poder de Nocaute
+3 Riley
A clear gap. Riley has 9 KOs in 13 wins and 0.73 knockdowns per minute. Kamaka has 3 KOs and 0.22. The Englishman is the finisher.
Ritmo e Pressão
+1 Kamaka III
Kamaka is the natural pressure fighter, boxing forward and walking men down. That's how he drags the fight onto his turf.
Wrestling e Clinch
+2 Kamaka III
Kamaka was a high-school state wrestling champ and attempts 1.51 takedowns per 15 min. Riley's 38% takedown defense (small sample) is the door.
Durabilidade e Queixo
Even
Kamaka has the proven chin, cleanly finished once in 26 fights. Riley absorbs less and stays undefeated, but his chin has never truly been tested.
Experiência e QI de Luta
+2 Kamaka III
26 fights to 13. Kamaka has gone five rounds and faced Corrales, Jenkins, Loughnane. Riley has two UFC fights. The veteran has seen more.
Riley owns where the fight ends: clean striking at range and knockout power. Kamaka owns where the fight drags: pressure, wrestling, and the experience of a man who's seen it all across 26 fights. The question is simple. If it's a striking match, Riley wins with margin. If it turns into an ugly wrestling scrap decided on a tight card, the veteran has a real path.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
The thesis is: Luke Riley wins because he's the cleaner, harder-hitting, fresher striker — 9 knockouts in 13 wins, 0.73 knockdowns per minute and only 3.32 strikes absorbed — against a tough but very hittable pressure fighter who eats 5.67 a minute, is cutting back down from lightweight at 31 with real mileage, and whose ceiling is a close decision. In a three-round fight, the Englishman's power and cleaner striking should bank rounds and, across the 15 minutes, either break a tiring Kamaka late or clearly out-point him.
The thesis is: Luke Riley wins because he's the cleaner, harder-hitting, fresher striker — 9 knockouts in 13 wins, 0.73 knockdowns per minute and only 3.32 strikes absorbed — against a tough but very hittable pressure fighter who eats 5.67 a minute, is cutting back down from lightweight at 31 with real mileage, and whose ceiling is a close decision. In a three-round fight, the Englishman's power and cleaner striking should bank rounds and, across the 15 minutes, either break a tiring Kamaka late or clearly out-point him.
The path breaks down if Kamaka turns it into a wrestling-and-clinch grind, exploiting Riley's 38% takedown defense, and steals the close rounds the way he's built his whole career on split cards, or if the undefeated man's inexperience — two UFC fights and no veteran of this caliber on his record — shows up in the deciding moments. That's why the pick is Riley by decision, not by finish: betting on a knockout is betting against the one thing Kamaka has never let happen.
Conviction
Conviction 6, no higher, because the tape and the market agree Riley is the better, more dangerous man, and the thesis stands on four dimensions (power, striking cleanliness, freshness/age and a tough-but-very-hittable opponent). What caps it: Riley's resume is genuinely thin — Cage Warriors journeymen plus two wins over unranked UFC opposition — while Kamaka has faced names of substance (Corrales, Jenkins, Carvalho, Loughnane, Pearce) and is the archetypal gatekeeper who spoils prospects. And Riley's 38% takedown defense against a real wrestler is a live hole. This isn't a market read: I land where the books do, but for different reasons — technique, power and freshness, not the line. And because Kamaka is nearly impossible to finish, the pick is Riley by decision, with no specific knockout call.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
If Kamaka commits to the wrestling and Riley's 38% takedown defense is real, the fight becomes a grind and the Hawaiian steals the decision. It's the cleanest route to the upset.
- 02
If Riley's inexperience — just two UFC fights — shows against a 26-fight veteran who's seen everything, the undefeated man can get read in the close moments.
- 03
If Kamaka chooses to box instead of wrestle, Riley's edge widens and it could even become the knockout the Hawaiian's durability usually prevents.
- 04
Kamaka has been cleanly finished once in 26 fights: a Riley finish is far from guaranteed, so a specific knockout pick for him is off the table.
Underdog Path
Kamaka doesn't need to knock Riley out — he never does that anyway. He needs to survive the early power, which he always does, and make the fight ugly. Pressure, volume, one or two well-timed takedowns against the Englishman's 38% defense, and 15 minutes of close rounds. That's exactly how he's stacked split decisions across his career, including a win over Henry Corrales that the press room scored the other way. If the prospect can't finish and the fight gets ugly, the judges become a coin-flip, and the Hawaiian lives on coin-flips.
Required Conditions
- Weather Riley's power in the early minutes, something Kamaka's granite chin has already proven it can do
- Take on the wrestler role: change levels and test the Englishman's 38% takedown defense instead of trading on the feet
- Make it grimy with pressure and clinch, dragging Riley out of the clean range striking where the Englishman is superior
- Win the close rounds on activity and control, the terrain where the veteran's split-decision experience carries weight
— Precedent: Kamaka's own career is the precedent: four split-decision losses and razor-thin wins on contested cards (Corrales in Bellator, with the room scoring it for the opponent) reveal a veteran who lives in the details and steals the close ones. Add the classic MMA script — the tough gatekeeper spoiling the undefeated prospect's party — and the path is concrete, not fantasy.
Verdict
Winner
Luke Riley
Method
Decision
Most Likely
- 01
Winner
Luke Riley
Riley because he's the cleaner, harder-hitting, fresher striker, and the tape agrees with the market. But the price is steep for a fight that can get grimy, so it's a small stake. Breaks if Kamaka wrestles and steals a split card.
- 02
Round Total
Over 1.5 rounds
Kamaka has been cleanly finished once in 26 fights and never in round 1. Whether Riley wins a decision or breaks the Hawaiian late, this rarely ends early. The cleanest exposure to the read. Only breaks if Riley lands a flash KO like he did on Grad.
- 03
Winner (underdog)
Kai Kamaka III
The live-dog acknowledgment: a wrestling path into that 38% takedown defense, granite durability, and a whole career of stealing close cards, against a prospect with just two UFC fights. A longshot with a real, precedented route. Breaks if Kamaka chooses to box instead of grapple.
Most Likely Outcome
Over 1.5 rounds, moderate stake
In a fight where the favorite is a finisher but the underdog is nearly impossible to finish, the safest edge isn't the winner or the method — it's the duration. Kamaka doesn't get stopped early, and Riley will likely have to sweat out the 15 minutes. Moderate stake because the Englishman's power keeps the flash-KO risk alive the whole way.
Stats That Matter
26
pro fights for Kamaka, with just one clean finish suffered (a 2020 ground-and-pound TKO). Never been submitted
The hardest man to put away Riley has ever faced
9
of Riley's 13 wins came by knockout. He absorbs just 3.32 strikes a minute and drops people (0.73 KD/min)
The fresher, younger, harder-hitting man at 27
38%
Riley's UFC takedown defense, on a two-fight sample, against a former state-champion wrestler
The one door the underdog can kick open, if he truly commits
The Trap
Riley by early knockout
The public sees a 9-KO finisher, favorite, and a 31-year-old cutting down from lightweight, and loads onto Riley inside the distance. Here's the trap: Kamaka has been cleanly finished exactly once in 26 fights (a 2020 ground-and-pound TKO; the other stoppage a 2015 doctor stoppage on a cut) and has never been submitted. He absorbs a lot (5.67 per minute) precisely because he's willing to eat to give, and he doesn't stop coming. Riley is the pick, but betting on a clean, quick knockout is betting against the single most reliable thing in the entire fight. If the finish doesn't come early, this becomes a grimy 15-minute veteran test.
The public sees a 9-KO finisher, favorite, and a 31-year-old cutting down from lightweight, and loads onto Riley inside the distance. Here's the trap: Kamaka has been cleanly finished exactly once in 26 fights (a 2020 ground-and-pound TKO; the other stoppage a 2015 doctor stoppage on a cut) and has never been submitted. He absorbs a lot (5.67 per minute) precisely because he's willing to eat to give, and he doesn't stop coming. Riley is the pick, but betting on a clean, quick knockout is betting against the single most reliable thing in the entire fight. If the finish doesn't come early, this becomes a grimy 15-minute veteran test.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Luke Riley vs Kai "The Fighting Hawaiian" Kamaka III | UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2 | July 11, 2026 | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Read the whole card, free
Drop your email and unlock every fight's breakdown on the card. No payment, no password.
- Every fight on the card, full breakdown
- Scenarios and the model's call for each fight
- Access to upcoming cards too
By continuing you agree to receive Coliseum updates and to our Privacy Policy. Opt out anytime.