August 1, 2026 · Belgrade Arena, Belgrade, Serbia
Rakić
14-6-0
#13 Light Heavyweight (unranked at heavyweight)Vienna, Austria | 34 years old
Tybura
27-11-0
#12 HeavyweightUniejow, Poland | 40 years old
The Reset He Picked
Five years without a win, seven without a knockout, and the first camp of his life with no weight cut. Rakic comes home for the UFC's first-ever night in Serbia.
THE PARADOX
The Only Man Who Still Ends Fights Is 0-4
Aleksandar Rakic hasn't had his hand raised since March 6, 2021. Four straight losses, the first real skid of his career, and the last one was the ugly kind: Azamat Murzakanov landed a short right hand on the way in at 3:11 of round one at UFC 321, and that was the night. But look at who did the damage over that stretch. Jan Blachowicz, Jiri Prochazka, Magomed Ankalaev, and an unbeaten fighter who walked out 16-0. The first three have all worn the light heavyweight belt. And the Blachowicz loss is an accounting quirk more than a chin question: Rakic's knee buckled on its own in round three, and it cost him 23 months on the shelf. Now the paradox. Even at 0-4, even at 34, even debuting in a division he has never set foot in, Rakic is still the only man in this fight who puts people out. He scores 0.51 knockdowns per 15 minutes. Marcin Tybura scores 0.06. That is not a difference in style, it is a difference in kind. Across the cage stands a 40-year-old Pole, the No. 12 contender, a jiu-jitsu black belt and former M-1 champion, carrying six losses by strikes. Three of those six were first-round stoppages inside 2:05: Augusto Sakai at 0:59, Tom Aspinall at 1:13, Ante Delija at 2:03. The other three came later — Shamil Abdurakhimov in round two, Derrick Lewis and Stephan Puetz in round three. Same recipe every time, somebody landing clean, and the clock never buys the Pole any safety across 15 minutes. Tybura's answer to that is well known and perfectly legitimate: close the distance, pin him to the fence, charge the weight tax and win on accumulation. He did exactly that to Alexandr Romanov and Ben Rothwell, and in March 2024 he weathered Tai Tuivasa's opening blitz before taking him down and choking him out. The problem is that the front door is narrow: Rakic defends 86% of takedowns per ufc.com, the best number of his career. The Pole's own takedown accuracy depends entirely on where you look, 16% on ufc.com against 33% on UFCStats, so it can't carry an argument by itself. And it is fair to remember that the 86% was built at 205 pounds, against men some 50 pounds lighter than Tybura. That is the real crack in the thesis, and it is wide enough to keep this a long way from a lock.
Aleksandar Rakic hasn't had his hand raised since March 6, 2021. Four straight losses, the first real skid of his career, and the last one was the ugly kind: Azamat Murzakanov landed a short right hand on the way in at 3:11 of round one at UFC 321, and that was the night. But look at who did the damage over that stretch. Jan Blachowicz, Jiri Prochazka, Magomed Ankalaev, and an unbeaten fighter who walked out 16-0. The first three have all worn the light heavyweight belt. And the Blachowicz loss is an accounting quirk more than a chin question: Rakic's knee buckled on its own in round three, and it cost him 23 months on the shelf. Now the paradox. Even at 0-4, even at 34, even debuting in a division he has never set foot in, Rakic is still the only man in this fight who puts people out. He scores 0.51 knockdowns per 15 minutes. Marcin Tybura scores 0.06. That is not a difference in style, it is a difference in kind. Across the cage stands a 40-year-old Pole, the No. 12 contender, a jiu-jitsu black belt and former M-1 champion, carrying six losses by strikes. Three of those six were first-round stoppages inside 2:05: Augusto Sakai at 0:59, Tom Aspinall at 1:13, Ante Delija at 2:03. The other three came later — Shamil Abdurakhimov in round two, Derrick Lewis and Stephan Puetz in round three. Same recipe every time, somebody landing clean, and the clock never buys the Pole any safety across 15 minutes. Tybura's answer to that is well known and perfectly legitimate: close the distance, pin him to the fence, charge the weight tax and win on accumulation. He did exactly that to Alexandr Romanov and Ben Rothwell, and in March 2024 he weathered Tai Tuivasa's opening blitz before taking him down and choking him out. The problem is that the front door is narrow: Rakic defends 86% of takedowns per ufc.com, the best number of his career. The Pole's own takedown accuracy depends entirely on where you look, 16% on ufc.com against 33% on UFCStats, so it can't carry an argument by itself. And it is fair to remember that the 86% was built at 205 pounds, against men some 50 pounds lighter than Tybura. That is the real crack in the thesis, and it is wide enough to keep this a long way from a lock.
Truth A
Rakic is the one walking in on the worse run: four straight losses, five years without a win, seven without a knockout, and a chin legitimately tested twice in his last five.
Truth B
Except he lost to Blachowicz, Prochazka, Ankalaev and a Murzakanov who was still 16-0 that night, and who wouldn't lose until Paulo Costa head-kicked him in April 2026. Tybura's most recent loss came to a UFC debutant who took the fight on two weeks' notice.
Tale of the Tape
Six years apart, and the Pole carries 38 pro fights to Rakic's 20
Effectively identical, per ufc.com
Identical reach, which is rare: nobody owns a length edge here
The one calculation nobody can run before the scale. ufc.com lists the Pole at 256 pounds and UFCStats lists him at 249, so by the ufc.com number the gap is roughly 50 pounds
The Pole carries more than double the octagon experience
Current Form
Aleksandar Rakić
UFC 321, against an unbeaten fighter who left 16-0. Murzakanov landed a short right hand on the entry at 3:11 of round one and Rakic never got back up.
KO R1UFC 308. Went the full 15 with the man who'd take the belt months later and lost a unanimous decision. The only one of the four losses where he finished on his feet.
Unanimous DecisionUFC 300, his return after 23 months out with the knee. Prochazka closed the show with punches at 3:17 of round two.
TKO R2Main event at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Rakic's knee gave out on its own in round three and he couldn't continue. A technical stoppage, not a chin loss, and the beginning of the hole he's in.
TKO R3UFC 259. The last time he won a fight. Unanimous decision over a former title challenger, built on range and leg kicks.
Unanimous DecisionFour straight losses and no win since March 2021, but the names on that list explain most of the damage: Blachowicz, Prochazka, Ankalaev, Murzakanov. The Blachowicz loss was a blown knee in round three, not a chin failure, and it cost him 23 months of inactivity. When he came back, the UFC handed him no favors: Prochazka at UFC 300, Ankalaev at UFC 308, Murzakanov at UFC 321. It's a free fall on the results sheet, but it's a free fall against the very top of the division. Now he moves up for the first time in a 20-fight pro career, drops the cut that has been draining him since day one, and fights with Belgrade behind him. It's a career reset, with everything that promises and everything it risks.
Marcin Tybura
Seattle. Lost 30-27, 29-28, 29-28 to a UFC debutant who took the fight on two weeks' notice. The announcer read the scores backwards and Fortune had to be called back into the cage.
Unanimous DecisionParis. Delija marched him down from the bell, Tybura shot a deep takedown along the fence and couldn't finish it. Back in open space, Delija cracked him with a shovel left hand and piled on the follow-up, TKO at 2:03. It was the Croatian's UFC debut, a decade after losing to Tybura in M-1.
TKO R1London. A tight unanimous decision over the then-unbeaten Parkin, now ranked No. 15. Razor-close on paper too: 61 significant strikes to 60.
Unanimous DecisionUFC 309 at Madison Square Garden. He beat Diniz up for two rounds and the doctor waved it off between rounds. A win built on accumulation, not impact.
TKO R2Main event rematch that gave the card its name. Spivac locked up the armbar at 1:44 of round one, the only submission loss Tybura has taken in 38 pro fights.
Sub R1Two straight losses, but 2-3 across his last five, which is a very different picture from the collapse people describe. The March loss is the one that stings: a unanimous decision in Seattle to Tyrell Fortune, who was making his UFC debut on two weeks' notice and has since cracked the top 10. Before that, Ante Delija, the same man who broke his own leg fighting Tybura for the M-1 title in 2015, came back a decade later and ended it with a shovel left hand and the flurry behind it at 2:03 of round one. There's still recent good work buried in there: he beat Mick Parkin, now ranked No. 15, and stopped Jhonata Diniz at UFC 309. At 40, with 38 pro fights on the odometer, the pattern is clear. Land clean and you beat him, and it doesn't have to be early: three of the six stoppage losses came in round two or round three. Never land clean and you're in for three rounds of ugly work.
Level of Competition
No common opponents across 58 combined pro fights, and there couldn't be any: Rakic spent 20 fights at light heavyweight and Tybura has never left heavyweight. What you can compare is the calibre that showed up across from each man. Rakic lost four in a row, but he lost to Blachowicz, Prochazka, Ankalaev and Murzakanov, meaning three men who have held the light heavyweight belt plus Murzakanov, unbeaten until that night and now 16-1 and ranked No. 8 at light heavyweight after Paulo Costa stopped him in April. His best win is the decision over Thiago Santos, then a top-five contender and former title challenger, in March 2021. Tybura is the inverse: 24 UFC fights and years of ranked status, but the win column is built on names that never reached the top, and against the best men he has shared a cage with he lost every time. Against top-five opposition he is 0-3: Fabricio Werdum, then No. 4, took a decision off him in a November 2017 main event, Alexander Volkov, then No. 5, decisioned him at UFC 267, and Tom Aspinall, also No. 5, ended it in 1:13 at UFC London in 2023. His last five came against Spivac, Diniz, Parkin, Delija and Fortune, four of whom were unranked or making a UFC debut. The Austrian's record over that stretch looks worse. His strength of schedule is far better.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes por Minuto
Rakic throws more and lands more, on less than half the octagon mileage
Precisão de Strikes (%)
Knockdowns por 15 Min
The number that separates them: eight times more likely to put a man down
Strikes Absorvidos/Min
Both men absorb plenty, and both have been stopped in the first round
Defesa de Strikes (%)
Takedowns por 15 Min
Tybura shoots twice as often, but shoots with little success
Precisão de Takedown (%)
ufc.com figures. UFCStats has Tybura at 33%, so this row can't carry an argument on its own
Defesa de Takedown (%)
The number that decides the fight: 86% on ufc.com. The caveat is that the 86% was built at 205 pounds, against men some 50 pounds lighter than Tybura
Rakić leads in 5 categories · Tybura leads in 3
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Rakic is the real finisher: nine knockouts in 14 wins, 64% of the total, with seven of them ending inside the opening round. The honest caveat is that his last knockout came against Jimi Manuwa in June 2019, seven years ago. Since then it's been two decisions and five losses. Tybura has the more complete menu, 10 knockouts, seven submissions and 10 decisions, roughly a third each, which is the signature of a veteran who learned to win every way there is. But the UFC-only split changes the read: of his 14 octagon wins, exactly one came by submission, the rear-naked choke on Tuivasa in 2024, and several of the stoppages were accumulation or doctor's intervention, like the Diniz fight at UFC 309. Translated to method: the Austrian needs a five-second window, the Pole needs 15 minutes.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
This is where the fight clarifies itself. Six of Tybura's 11 losses came by strikes, 55%, and every one of them has the same address: somebody landing clean. Half came fast — Sakai at 0:59, Aspinall at 1:13, Delija at 2:03, all in round one, all in open space. The other half came late, and that's the part people forget: Shamil Abdurakhimov stopped him at 3:15 of round two in April 2019, Derrick Lewis at 2:48 of round three in February 2018, and Stephan Puetz won on a doctor's stoppage at 3:48 of round three under the M-1 banner in May 2015. It's fair to note that only one of the six is recent, the Delija stoppage in September 2025, and that the Aspinall one is seven fights back. It's equally fair to note that he has been submitted exactly once in 38 pro fights, Spivac's armbar in 2024. The read: you beat Tybura with impact, and the window doesn't close when round one ends. On the other side, Rakic's three stoppage losses need context. The Blachowicz one is bookkeeping, since the knee gave out and the chin didn't. The two legitimate ones came from Prochazka and Murzakanov, a former champion and a man who was unbeaten at the time, and both landed inside his last three fights. That's the number that keeps any high conviction off the table: both chins carry history, but the Pole's carries six marks and the Austrian's carries two.
Skills Profile
Rakić
vs
Tybura
Striking em Distância
+3 Rakić
Rakic works behind the jab and the leg kick on the outside, putting up 4.13 significant strikes per minute at 50% accuracy to Tybura's 3.56 at 48%.
Striking em Curta Distância
+1 Tybura
In close along the fence the Pole is the more experienced and heavier man, and that's exactly where he ground decisions out of Rothwell, Romanov, Ivanov and Parkin.
Poder de Nocaute
+4 Rakić
Nine knockouts in 14 wins and a 0.51 knockdown average against Tybura's 0.06, a man who almost never wobbles anybody.
Defesa de Striking
Even
An odd wash: the Pole defends more (55% to 51%) but absorbs more per minute (3.26 to 2.86). Both are hittable, each in his own way.
Grappling e Clinch
+2 Tybura
A jiu-jitsu black belt, former M-1 champion, seven career submissions and 1.30 takedowns per 15 minutes. The caveat: Rakic defends 86% of takedowns on ufc.com, and the Pole's own accuracy swings wildly by source, 16% against 33%.
Cardio (3 rounds)
+1 Tybura
Tybura averages 11:01 of fight time, has 24 UFC bouts and already went five rounds with Werdum. Rakic averages 10:41 and is six years younger, but arrives without a weight cut for the first time.
Tybura wins this fight in exactly one place, on the mat and along the fence, and that's precisely where Rakic owns the best number of his career. On the feet, the power gap is too wide for the Pole to make up on volume, especially over three rounds. The question isn't who knows more about fighting, it's whether the Austrian's new body holds up for 15 minutes at heavyweight.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
The thesis is: Aleksandar Rakic wins because Tybura's only safe route runs through the fence and the mat, and it runs into the 86% takedown defense ufc.com credits him with, the best attribute of his career; because Tybura arrives at 40 with six losses by strikes, three of them first-round stoppages inside 2:05, with Sakai, Aspinall and Delija all landing clean in open space early, and the other three coming in rounds two and three against Abdurakhimov, Lewis and Puetz, which stretches the finishing window across the full 15 minutes; and because Rakic arrives for the first time in 20 fights without the 205-pound cut that hollowed him out, with a 0.51 knockdown average to the Pole's 0.06, and with all of Belgrade behind him on a night he specifically pushed to be part of.
The thesis is: Aleksandar Rakic wins because Tybura's only safe route runs through the fence and the mat, and it runs into the 86% takedown defense ufc.com credits him with, the best attribute of his career; because Tybura arrives at 40 with six losses by strikes, three of them first-round stoppages inside 2:05, with Sakai, Aspinall and Delija all landing clean in open space early, and the other three coming in rounds two and three against Abdurakhimov, Lewis and Puetz, which stretches the finishing window across the full 15 minutes; and because Rakic arrives for the first time in 20 fights without the 205-pound cut that hollowed him out, with a 0.51 knockdown average to the Pole's 0.06, and with all of Belgrade behind him on a night he specifically pushed to be part of.
The path is Rakic owning the outside behind the jab and the leg kick, weathering the fence-clinch attempts through the first five minutes, and letting the right hand show up once the Pole's feet start dragging in round two. It breaks down if Tybura pins Rakic on the fence and turns this into 15 minutes of close-quarters grind, or if the new weight charges the Austrian exactly what he moved up to avoid.
Conviction
Conviction 5, and no higher. The thesis leans on five distinct dimensions: the stats (Rakic's 86% takedown defense on ufc.com, plus a 0.51 knockdown average against 0.06), the level of opposition (the Austrian lost to three men who have held the light heavyweight belt plus a Murzakanov who was unbeaten at the time, while the Pole is 0-3 lifetime against top-five opposition and his most recent loss came against a UFC debutant on two weeks' notice), style (Tybura's only winning route collides head-on with his opponent's best attribute, and his loss pattern is exactly what Rakic does for a living), the physical (34 against 40, identical reach, and the Austrian off the weight cut for the first time in 20 fights), and the qualitative read (Rakic took this fight after Islam Makhachev sent him a public voice message urging him to be on Serbia's first card, and he has been telling Serbian outlets that Belgrade is a fresh start and that he wants the old Rakic back in the Octagon). The sixth dimension, momentum, points hard the other way: he hasn't won in five years and hasn't knocked anybody out in seven. And this isn't a market read either, because the market sits on the opposite side of my number: the line charges 79% and I have him at 60%. What keeps this off 6 is two honest things that can't be written away: nobody knows how this body responds to the new weight, and Tybura's takedown accuracy, the most-quoted number in this analysis, swings from 16% to 33% depending on the source, which leaves the Pole's door further open than the original read suggested. What carries Rakic's side now isn't that number, it's his takedown defense, and that one comes from a single source, ufc.com, because UFCStats was down when this was reported. Sturdy pillar, no second confirmation.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
If Tybura pins Rakic on the fence and holds him there for two minutes in round one, that 86% takedown defense loses its meaning: the number was built against light heavyweights, not against 256 pounds of jiu-jitsu black belt leaning on him.
- 02
If Rakic comes out the way he did against Murzakanov, trusting the range with his hands low, his chin has failed legitimately twice in his last five and Tybura still lands 48% of what he throws.
- 03
If the new weight sends a bill, and this is the most underpriced scenario in the fight: it's the first camp of his career without a cut, and nobody has seen this body fight a third round.
- 04
If this turns into a volume contest, the history is bad for the Austrian: he gave away rounds to inactivity against Ankalaev and against Oezdemir, and Tybura lives on stacking small minutes.
Underdog Path
Tybura accepts losing the first three minutes. He refuses the exchange at range, comes in head down hunting the clinch, pins Rakic on the fence and works the bodylock instead of shooting in open space, which is exactly where Rakic's defense is at its best. He doesn't even need the takedowns to land; he needs the Austrian to hold up 256 pounds for two minutes of every round. From the middle of the second, the man who has never fought in this division starts breathing differently and the output drops. From there the Pole either banks the cards on accumulation and control time, the way he did against Romanov and Rothwell, or finds the takedown on a tired man and closes it on the ground, the way he did against Tuivasa.
Required Conditions
- Get through the first five minutes without eating a clean right hand, which is when Rakic is freshest and most dangerous
- Pin Rakic on the fence and commit to the bodylock instead of shooting in open space, which is precisely where the Austrian's 86% defense was built
- Make the Austrian carry the new weight at a high pace, forcing stand-up after stand-up until the tank becomes the story
- Reach round three with the fight even, because that's where Rakic's division debut becomes a genuine question
— Precedent: Tybura vs Tai Tuivasa (March 2024, main event): one of the division's heaviest hitters came straight at him from the bell. Tybura weathered the opening, closed the distance, put him on the mat and finished with a rear-naked choke at 4:08 of round one. That's exactly the blueprint he needs here, and it's recent. Add the decisions he ground out of Alexandr Romanov in 2022 and Ben Rothwell in 2020, both bigger men, on pure attrition.
Verdict
Winner
Aleksandar Rakić
Method
TKO
Most Likely
- 01
Method
Rakic by KO/TKO
Rakic by knockout because six of Tybura's 11 losses came by strikes, 55%, three of them first-round stoppages inside 2:05, the most recent against Delija in September, and the other three stoppages in rounds two and three against Abdurakhimov, Lewis and Puetz. The window is worth all 15 minutes, not just the first five. The method market pays well because nobody trusts a guy who hasn't knocked anyone out since 2019, and that's exactly where the edge lives. Breaks if the Pole gets to the fence early and never accepts a fight at range.
- 02
How it ends (either fighter)
Fight does not go to decision
No decision because over three rounds one of these two gets caught: Tybura has been stopped by strikes six times and Rakic twice legitimately in his last five. Both walk in with striking defense hovering around 50%. Breaks if this becomes a fence grind from the opening bell, the one script where the Pole manages 15 quiet minutes.
- 03
Underdog winner
Marcin Tybura
Tybura as a small contrarian play because the price implies 25.6% and I have him at 37%. The market is charging for Rakic's 0-4 skid but charging nothing at all for his division debut, which is the biggest unknown on the card. And the Pole's route is concrete and recent: it's the Tuivasa tape. Breaks the first time he stands still at range with his hands down.
- 04
Bet to avoid
Aleksandar Rakic
Right read, wrong price. I have Rakic at 60% and the line charges 79%, so there's nothing left to collect, especially after it fattened from an opening. Anybody who wants his side should be taking the method. This only makes sense as a parlay leg, and even then at a short stake.
Most Likely Outcome
Rakic by KO/TKO, moderate stake
It's where the price and the read finally meet. Tybura's vulnerability has an address, 55% of his losses come by strikes, three of them first-round stoppages inside 2:05 and three more in rounds two and three, and Rakic brings nine knockouts in 14 wins with eight times the knockdown rate. Conviction 5 means don't size it up: these are two fighters on the way down, and the Austrian's new body is a variable nobody has tested.
Stats That Matter
86%
takedown defense for Rakic on ufc.com, the best attribute of his career
The Pole's safest route runs straight into the Austrian's best attribute. The caveat: that 86% was built at 205 pounds
0.06
knockdowns per 15 minutes for Tybura across 24 UFC fights
Rakic sits at 0.51, eight times higher. Over three rounds that's the gap between threatening and just accumulating
5 years
since Rakic's last win, over Thiago Santos in March 2021
And seven since his last knockout, over Jimi Manuwa. This is what holds the conviction at 5
The Trap
Rakic on the moneyline
The market is charging you 79% on a man who has lost four straight, hasn't won since March 2021, hasn't knocked anybody out since June 2019, and is fighting in a brand-new weight class for the first time in his life. That price is buying the memory of 2020 Rakic plus the noise of a Belgrade crowd, and the line has only fattened since it opened. He's still the right side of this fight, but paying that on the moneyline is exactly where the public bleeds money here. The value is in the method, not the line.
The market is charging you 79% on a man who has lost four straight, hasn't won since March 2021, hasn't knocked anybody out since June 2019, and is fighting in a brand-new weight class for the first time in his life. That price is buying the memory of 2020 Rakic plus the noise of a Belgrade crowd, and the line has only fattened since it opened. He's still the right side of this fight, but paying that on the moneyline is exactly where the public bleeds money here. The value is in the method, not the line.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Aleksandar "Rocket" Rakić vs Marcin "Tybur" Tybura | UFC Fight Night: Medić vs Rodriguez | August 1, 2026 | Belgrade Arena, Belgrade, Serbia
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