May 30, 2026 · Galaxy Arena, Macau
Perez
26-10-0
#11 FlyweightLemoore, California | 34 years old
Sumudaerji
19-7-0
UnrankedSichuan, China | 30 years old
Ranked Veteran Against the Tibetan Eagle
Perez is the #11 ranked flyweight, fought Deiveson Figueiredo for the title in 2020, and owns a TKO win over Jussier Formiga. Sumudaerji is unranked but riding a three-fight winning streak with a seven-inch reach advantage as his structural edge. The resume gap is huge — the kicking game from distance is the only thing that keeps the Eagle alive.
THE DECIDING POINT
Resume Gap Versus Distance Striking
Alex Perez owns the resume here, full stop. He's a former flyweight title challenger who fought Deiveson Figueiredo at UFC 255 in November 2020, scored a TKO over Jussier Formiga in June 2020, and has shared the cage with Mokaev, Nicolau, Taira and Almabayev in his last four ranked outings. Sumudaerji's last three wins came against Mitch Raposo, Kevin Borjas and Jesus Aguilar — none of them ranked, none of them wrestlers. On pure strength of schedule, Perez is operating at a different tier. But resume alone doesn't win fights. It wins when the style holds up against what's across the cage, and Sumudaerji brings something Perez has rarely dealt with: seven inches of reach (72" to 65"), a sharp distance kickboxing game (50% striking accuracy, 62% striking defense), and a three-fight stretch where he hardly absorbed any damage. The Eagle's path is simple — stay long, plant the feet, and land a head kick or a clean straight left before Perez closes the gap. Perez's path is the one he's run his whole career: work the jab, walk Sumudaerji into the fence, hit the takedown, and grind out top control with ground-and-pound.
Alex Perez owns the resume here, full stop. He's a former flyweight title challenger who fought Deiveson Figueiredo at UFC 255 in November 2020, scored a TKO over Jussier Formiga in June 2020, and has shared the cage with Mokaev, Nicolau, Taira and Almabayev in his last four ranked outings. Sumudaerji's last three wins came against Mitch Raposo, Kevin Borjas and Jesus Aguilar — none of them ranked, none of them wrestlers. On pure strength of schedule, Perez is operating at a different tier. But resume alone doesn't win fights. It wins when the style holds up against what's across the cage, and Sumudaerji brings something Perez has rarely dealt with: seven inches of reach (72" to 65"), a sharp distance kickboxing game (50% striking accuracy, 62% striking defense), and a three-fight stretch where he hardly absorbed any damage. The Eagle's path is simple — stay long, plant the feet, and land a head kick or a clean straight left before Perez closes the gap. Perez's path is the one he's run his whole career: work the jab, walk Sumudaerji into the fence, hit the takedown, and grind out top control with ground-and-pound.
Truth A
Perez has top-10 history, a real wrestling base out of West Hills College Lemoore (regional champion, JC All-American), and is coming off a first-round TKO of Charles Johnson at UFC 324 in January. The jab-and-takedown game still works. Takedown defense is elite at 75%, and Sumudaerji has been finished by grapplers before — Tim Elliott via arm-triangle in round one (December 2023), Matt Schnell via triangle in round two (2022).
Truth B
Sumudaerji has seven inches of reach, 72% takedown defense, and his 4.43 SLpM actually edges Perez's 4.41. He owns highlight-reel KOs: Andre Soukhamthath in 2019 and Malcolm Gordon in 44 seconds of round one in 2020. Perez has been submitted five times in his career — including a Round 3 guillotine to Asu Almabayev as recently as November 2025. If the Eagle lands the head kick before the takedown opens, the damage is real.
Tale of the Tape
Perez is four years older. Real gap, not a defining one.
Sumudaerji two inches taller. Tall for flyweight.
STRUCTURAL EDGE. Seven inches of reach for Sumudaerji. The biggest physical advantage in the fight.
Open stance matchup. Southpaw Sumudaerji tends to get the outside foot on an orthodox fighter.
Team Oyama (California, wrestling base) against Team Alpha Male (recent camp). Both legitimate.
Current Form
Alex Perez
Missed weight at 128.5 lb (2.5 over). Fight went off at catchweight. Cracked a clean straight in the first round and closed it standing with ground-and-pound. Snapped a two-fight skid.
TKO R1 (punches)Almabayev (a rising top-15 prospect) locked up a tight guillotine in the third round and Perez had to tap. The fifth submission loss of his career.
Sub R3 (guillotine)Fight with Taira (then-undefeated prospect). Perez hurt his knee in round two and the corner stopped it. Serious injury.
TKO R2 (knee injury)Performance of the Night. Short right hand turned the lights off on Nicolau in round one. Reminded everyone the power is still there.
KO R1 (punch)Mokaev (undefeated and ranked at the time) ran a clean wrestling clinic over 15 minutes. Straight UD.
Unanimous DecisionAn up-and-down veteran's run. Perez fought Figueiredo for the flyweight title at UFC 255 in November 2020 (lost by guillotine in the first round) and since then has alternated between strong wins and rough losses. He's coming off a first-round TKO of Charles Johnson at UFC 324 in January 2026 (missed weight at 128.5 pounds, fought at catchweight, still got the stoppage standing) but the fight before that was a Round 3 guillotine loss to Asu Almabayev in November 2025. His 10 career losses break down evenly: five submissions, one KO/TKO, four decisions — important context because Sumudaerji is going to be hunting strikes from range, not the choke. Perez trains at Team Oyama out of California, a real wrestling-rooted gym. Big picture, his form since 2024 has been bumpy: Performance of the Night KO over Matheus Nicolau in April 2024, decision loss to Muhammad Mokaev in March 2024, a knee injury stoppage against Tatsuro Taira in June 2024, and the Almabayev-Johnson cycle through 2025-2026. The blueprint to win is the same one he's always had: jab, close distance, takedown along the fence, ground-and-pound.
Sumudaerji
Unanimous decision over three rounds. Dictated distance with kicks and the jab. Aguilar never found any rhythm.
Unanimous DecisionUFC Fight Night 257 in Shanghai. Distance striking dominant. Borjas couldn't find his range all night.
Unanimous DecisionReturn fight after a three-fight losing streak. Tight split decision. Raposo tested the takedown defense but Sumudaerji held up.
Split DecisionElliott took the fight on five days' notice. Locked up the arm-triangle in the first round and finished at 4:02. Performance of the Night for Elliott.
Sub R1 (arm-triangle)Taira (undefeated, top prospect) controlled the action both standing and on the floor. Dominant UD.
Unanimous DecisionThe Tibetan Eagle is in his best stretch since 2021. Three straight wins on the books — Raposo by split decision in April 2025, Borjas by unanimous decision in August 2025, Aguilar by unanimous decision in March 2026 — all via the same formula: manage distance with long-range striking, refuse to trade in the pocket, defend whatever takedown attempts show up. The first fighter of Tibetan ethnicity in UFC history. Recent camps have run through Team Alpha Male according to UFC records, though his foundation is Chinese. The historical weakness is well documented: two submission losses (Tim Elliott via arm-triangle in Round 1 in December 2023, Matt Schnell via triangle in Round 2 in 2022), plus decision losses to technical grapplers when the fight hit the mat. Since returning in 2025, his takedown defense has held up — but his opposition didn't include a real wrestler with credentials. The Perez test is different. It's the first time in this winning streak that he's facing a wrestler with a top-15 pedigree. The striking is the weapon. The takedown defense is the question.
Level of Competition
No direct common opponents in the UFC, but the resume contrast is the whole story of this fight. Perez is a former flyweight title challenger (faced Figueiredo at UFC 255 in November 2020, lost by guillotine in Round 1), holds a TKO win over Jussier Formiga from June 2020, and his last five outings have been against Mokaev, Nicolau, Taira, Almabayev and Charles Johnson — four of them at or near top-15 level. Sumudaerji's last three wins came against Raposo, Borjas and Aguilar, all unranked, and the last top-10 fighters he faced were Tatsuro Taira (May 2023) and Tim Elliott (December 2023), both losses (Elliott by submission). The strength-of-schedule gap is wide and it anchors the pick. But here's the wrinkle: Sumudaerji hasn't faced a ranked wrestler during this current three-fight winning streak either, so this matchup is new territory for him too.
Statistical Comparison
Significant Strikes per Minute
Nearly identical raw volume. The difference isn't here — it's in accuracy and defense.
Striking Accuracy (%)
Sumudaerji four points higher. Technical distance striker, lands more per attempt.
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Sumudaerji eats nearly a full strike less per minute. Movement and range pay dividends.
Striking Defense (%)
Sumudaerji three points higher. Reach and the southpaw stance both help.
Takedowns per 15 Min
Perez attempts 3.3 times as many. Clear wrestler's identity.
Takedown Accuracy (%)
Perez hits nearly half of what he attempts. Sumudaerji attempts few and converts even less.
Takedown Defense (%)
KEY STAT. Perez at 75% (elite) versus 72% (solid) for Sumudaerji. Three-point gap, both defend takedowns well. But Perez is the one ATTEMPTING the takedown, so the number that actually moves the fight is Sumudaerji's.
Perez leads in 3 categories · Sumudaerji leads in 4
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Different profiles. Perez is balanced: 7 KOs (27%), 7 subs (27%), 12 decisions (46%). He's got multiple paths to win, but recent history shows his offensive submission game only shows up when he closes distance and locks down top control. Sumudaerji is more polarized: 9 KOs (47%), 4 subs (21%), 6 decisions (32%). He's a KO finisher when it works and a points fighter when it doesn't — his last three wins were all decisions. For method markets, the takeaway is that Sumudaerji doesn't string submissions together, but he has the one-shot power that can flip a fight in a second.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Structurally important stat. Perez has 10 career losses, and five of them are by submission (50% of losses), including the Figueiredo guillotine in Round 1 (2020), Pantoja neck crank in Round 1 (2022), and Almabayev guillotine in Round 3 (November 2025). The pattern is clear: his neck is the vulnerability when an opponent gets to the clinch or top position. That matters here because Sumudaerji has four career submissions (one recent rear-naked choke in 2025), though he's not primarily a grappler. Sumudaerji has seven losses, but only two by submission (Schnell triangle Round 2 in 2022, Elliott arm-triangle Round 1 in December 2023), one by KO, plus four by decision. His weak point is takedown defense against technical grapplers — exactly the door Perez is going to knock on. But Perez is a top-control-and-strike wrestler, not a submission hunter. The odds of Perez subbing Sumudaerji are lower than the odds of Sumudaerji catching Perez in a guillotine off a sloppy takedown attempt.
Skills Profile
Perez
vs
Sumudaerji
Striking at Distance
+3 Sumudaerji
Sumudaerji has seven inches of reach, 50% striking accuracy, and 4.43 SLpM. He wins the long-range jab and kicking game outright.
Striking in the Pocket
+2 Perez
Perez has short arms but real pop. The Nicolau KO (April 2024) and the Formiga TKO (Round 1, 2020) both came from inside. Sumudaerji doesn't want to trade in the pocket.
Knockout Power
Even
Perez has seven KOs in 26 wins (27%). Sumudaerji has nine KOs in 19 (47%). The Eagle owns the bigger KO percentage, but Perez's finishes came against better names (Nicolau top 10, Formiga top 10).
Wrestling and Takedown Defense
+4 Perez
Perez wrestling base, 2.21 takedown attempts per 15 minutes, 75% takedown defense. Sumudaerji at 0.67 per 15 minutes, defense is OK (72%) but offensively a non-factor. Most lopsided dimension in the fight.
Ground Game
+2 Perez
Perez has been submitted five times in his career (Figueiredo guillotine, Pantoja neck crank, Mokaev decision, Almabayev guillotine recently). Sumudaerji submitted twice (Schnell triangle, Elliott arm-triangle). But Perez has more offensive ground game (0.7 sub attempts versus 0.5).
Cardio (3 Rounds)
Even
Three-round fight, both have cardio tested over 15 minutes. Sumudaerji has three straight UDs, Perez went 25 minutes with Figueiredo back in 2020 (didn't fully tap the gas tank, lost early, but the body of work has sample).
Sumudaerji wins distance striking because of the reach. Perez wins wrestling and ground because of the pedigree. The fight is a footrace between the Eagle's head kick and the Team Oyama takedown. Whoever implements first stacks rounds.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
The thesis: Alex Perez wins because the strength-of-schedule gap is overwhelming (top-10 history, fought Figueiredo for the title in 2020, owns wins over Jussier Formiga and Matheus Nicolau), the wrestling base out of West Hills College has never been answered effectively by Sumudaerji against a ranked grappler, and Perez is coming off a first-round TKO of Charles Johnson in January 2026 that proved the jab-takedown-ground game still works.
The thesis: Alex Perez wins because the strength-of-schedule gap is overwhelming (top-10 history, fought Figueiredo for the title in 2020, owns wins over Jussier Formiga and Matheus Nicolau), the wrestling base out of West Hills College has never been answered effectively by Sumudaerji against a ranked grappler, and Perez is coming off a first-round TKO of Charles Johnson in January 2026 that proved the jab-takedown-ground game still works.
The path is for Perez to take the short stand-up exchange in the first 90 seconds of Round 1 to measure distance, hit the takedown along the fence when Sumudaerji steps in with kicks, open top control with ground-and-pound, and either run cards 30-27 or find a late finish in Round 2 or 3 as fatigue stacks up.
This collapses if Sumudaerji lands a clean head kick or a counter left straight for the KO in the first two minutes, before Perez closes the gap.
Conviction
Conviction 6 (not 7) because (1) the strength-of-schedule gap for Perez is enormous (top-10 history, title shot resume), (2) Perez is coming off a recent first-round TKO that proves the standup game still works, (3) Sumudaerji's takedown defense is the documented weakness against grapplers (finished by Elliott). But Perez has been submitted five times in his career (including a Round 3 guillotine to Almabayev in November 2025), so his cardio in the ground game isn't airtight, (b) Sumudaerji is a long striker with a seven-inch reach advantage and a head kick that's a real Round 1 threat, (c) flyweight is a volatile division. The 64-33-3 probability reflects the resume gap without overinflating it.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
Sumudaerji lands a clean head kick or counter left in the first two minutes of Round 1 (Malcolm Gordon template)
- 02
Perez can't close the gap in Rounds 1-2 and Sumudaerji racks up cards with long-range volume (Path B for the underdog)
- 03
Perez forces a sloppy takedown attempt and gives up the neck on a guillotine, repeating the Almabayev pattern from November 2025
- 04
Sumudaerji's takedown defense holds up across 3-4 attempts and the fight stays standing for long stretches
Underdog Path
Sumudaerji has one central path: Path A (KO via reach and kicks). Hold distance the first five-to-seven minutes of Round 1, plant the feet to land a head kick, body kick, or counter left straight against a Perez who needs to close the gap to set up the wrestling. Sumudaerji stands 5'8" (tall for flyweight) and his game is reach plus long-range striking. His signature dates back to the 44-second KO of Malcolm Gordon in 2020. Path B (cards via volume striking) is unlikely because Perez is going to force the wrestling across 15 minutes, but it exists if Perez can't hit the takedown across three rounds.
Required Conditions
- Land a clean head kick, body kick, or counter left straight in the first two minutes, before Perez closes the gap
- Defend at least 2-3 takedown attempts from Perez with technical sprawls
- Hold distance with footwork without getting walked into the fence
- Survive the wrestling pressure if the takedown lands, without surrendering the neck on a bad transition
— Precedent: Sumudaerji owns meaningful historical KOs: a first-round KO of Andre Soukhamthath in 2019 (UFC debut), a 44-second R1 KO of Malcolm Gordon in 2020. The distance striking is still the weapon. But takedown defense has been the historical weak spot against grapplers — finished by Tim Elliott via arm-triangle in December 2023, lost a dominant decision to Tatsuro Taira in 2023. None of his last three wins came against a ranked wrestler.
Verdict
Winner
Alex Perez
Method
Unanimous Decision or Late TKO
Most Likely
- 01
Winner
Perez
Top-10 historical resume against an unranked fighter on a three-fight winning streak over unranked opposition. Perez's wrestling base (2.21 takedowns per 15 minutes) attacks Sumudaerji's documented weak point (finished by Tim Elliott via arm-triangle in December 2023, lost a dominant decision to Taira). Moderate edge, real probability estimate 64% against implied 64%. Thesis play more than value play. Collapses if Sumudaerji lands a head kick in the first two minutes.
- 02
Method
Perez by Decision
Perez has 46% of his wins by decision (12 of 26). Sumudaerji has been submitted only twice in his career (Elliott, Schnell) and neither against a primary wrestler. Base case for Perez to win is takedown + top control + 30-27 cards, not submission. The implied is 36%, estimated 40-45%. Moderate direct edge.
- 03
Total Rounds
Fight Doesn't Go the Distance
Sumudaerji has nine KOs in 19 wins (47%) and Perez has seven KOs in 26 (27%). Combined, this fight carries real finishing threat on both sides. Perez is coming off a TKO R1, Sumudaerji is coming off three UDs but has the 44-second Malcolm Gordon KO on his resume. Speculative play on someone finishing before the final bell. Medium conviction, but value is there.
Most Likely Outcome
Perez by Decision
Best direct value in the fight. Perez's profile via wrestling, top control, and the cards is more likely than a submission (Sumudaerji has only been submitted twice, neither against a primary wrestler). Combines the main pick (Perez wins) with the most likely method (decision). Moderate 5-7 point edge.
Stats That Matter
7"
Reach advantage for Sumudaerji
65" for Perez against 72" for Sumudaerji. The biggest physical edge in the fight, and the foundation of the Eagle's distance game in the early minutes.
75%
Elite takedown defense for Perez
Top-5 takedown defense at flyweight. Even if Sumudaerji shoots (unlikely at 0.67 per 15 minutes), Perez stops three of every four.
5/10
Submission losses on Perez's record
Figueiredo, Pantoja, Almabayev and two more. The neck is vulnerable on a poorly executed takedown attempt.
The Trap
Trap: Sumudaerji by Decision at Long Odds
The market will price Sumudaerji by decision around based on his three-fight win streak (Raposo SD, Borjas UD, Aguilar UD), all on the cards. The casual logic: if the Eagle won three straight UDs by defending distance, he'll do it again against Perez. But the mistake is ignoring that none of those three opponents was a ranked offensive wrestler. Perez attempts 2.21 takedowns per 15 minutes against the 0.5-to-1.0 of Sumudaerji's last three opponents. The wrestling pressure profile is completely different. Sumudaerji by decision is a viable Path B for the underdog, but the implied probability is 25% and the real estimate is 12-15%. Doesn't cover.
The market will price Sumudaerji by decision around based on his three-fight win streak (Raposo SD, Borjas UD, Aguilar UD), all on the cards. The casual logic: if the Eagle won three straight UDs by defending distance, he'll do it again against Perez. But the mistake is ignoring that none of those three opponents was a ranked offensive wrestler. Perez attempts 2.21 takedowns per 15 minutes against the 0.5-to-1.0 of Sumudaerji's last three opponents. The wrestling pressure profile is completely different. Sumudaerji by decision is a viable Path B for the underdog, but the implied probability is 25% and the real estimate is 12-15%. Doesn't cover.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Alex Perez vs Sumudaerji "The Tibetan Eagle" | UFC Fight Night: Song vs Figueiredo | May 30, 2026 | Galaxy Arena, Macau
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