September 5, 2026 · Accor Arena, Paris, France
Page
25-3-0
#15 MiddleweightLondon, England | 39 years old
Ruziboev
37-9-2
UnrankedAndijan, Uzbekistan | 32 years old
The Promise That Could Cost Him
At 39 and on the last fight of his deal, Page announced he's hunting a finish. Across from him is a 6-foot-5 Uzbek with 21 career submissions who needs exactly one mistake.
Conviction
Conviction 5 because the difference between the two paths isn't quality, it's duration. Page has to execute 15 minutes of the thing he does better than almost anybody in the division: stay long, land 58%, and let nobody touch him. Ruziboev needs one moment, and he has 21 submissions in 37 wins as proof that he recognizes that moment when it shows up. Fewer steps usually wins more often, and that's what keeps this number down here even with the resume and the raw numbers favoring the Englishman clearly. What pushes the pick to Page instead of the underdog is concrete and checkable: in the three UFC fights where he got taken down, by Holland, by Garry and by Cannonier, two takedowns apiece, nothing happened afterward. Garry piled up 7:29 of control with two submission attempts and still only won on points, Cannonier piled up 8:14 and lost on all three cards. Page has never been submitted in 28 fights. What Ruziboev needs to do to him, nobody has done yet.
Conviction 5 because the difference between the two paths isn't quality, it's duration. Page has to execute 15 minutes of the thing he does better than almost anybody in the division: stay long, land 58%, and let nobody touch him. Ruziboev needs one moment, and he has 21 submissions in 37 wins as proof that he recognizes that moment when it shows up. Fewer steps usually wins more often, and that's what keeps this number down here even with the resume and the raw numbers favoring the Englishman clearly. What pushes the pick to Page instead of the underdog is concrete and checkable: in the three UFC fights where he got taken down, by Holland, by Garry and by Cannonier, two takedowns apiece, nothing happened afterward. Garry piled up 7:29 of control with two submission attempts and still only won on points, Cannonier piled up 8:14 and lost on all three cards. Page has never been submitted in 28 fights. What Ruziboev needs to do to him, nobody has done yet.
THE PARADOX
The Knockout He Shouldn't Chase
There's a version of Michael Page that wins this fight without breaking a sweat, and everybody has seen it. It's the version that lives at the end of a 79-inch reach, lands 58% of what he throws, absorbs 1.51 strikes per minute, and makes the other guy spend 15 minutes swinging at somebody who isn't there. That's what happened to Shara Magomedov, and that's what happened to Jared Cannonier at UFC 319, where Cannonier piled up eight minutes and 14 seconds of control time and still lost on all three cards. Against an Uzbek who went a full 15 minutes without attempting a single takedown the one time he shared a cage with a genuinely fast athlete, that version of Page wins comfortably. The trouble is that version got booed round by round in London in March, sent Dana White walking out of the arena mid-fight, and Page himself admitted he never found an adjustment. Now he's 39, on the last fight of his contract, with no title path drawn up for him, and he spent fight week saying he wants to remind the UFC why they signed him — with a finish. That's the one sentence in this whole breakdown that cracks the door open for Ruziboev. Because the Uzbek doesn't need to chase Page for 15 minutes. He needs one mistimed kick, exactly like the one Andrey Pulyaev threw in June, which Ruziboev caught, turned into a takedown, rode to the back, and finished before the four-minute mark of round one.
There's a version of Michael Page that wins this fight without breaking a sweat, and everybody has seen it. It's the version that lives at the end of a 79-inch reach, lands 58% of what he throws, absorbs 1.51 strikes per minute, and makes the other guy spend 15 minutes swinging at somebody who isn't there. That's what happened to Shara Magomedov, and that's what happened to Jared Cannonier at UFC 319, where Cannonier piled up eight minutes and 14 seconds of control time and still lost on all three cards. Against an Uzbek who went a full 15 minutes without attempting a single takedown the one time he shared a cage with a genuinely fast athlete, that version of Page wins comfortably. The trouble is that version got booed round by round in London in March, sent Dana White walking out of the arena mid-fight, and Page himself admitted he never found an adjustment. Now he's 39, on the last fight of his contract, with no title path drawn up for him, and he spent fight week saying he wants to remind the UFC why they signed him — with a finish. That's the one sentence in this whole breakdown that cracks the door open for Ruziboev. Because the Uzbek doesn't need to chase Page for 15 minutes. He needs one mistimed kick, exactly like the one Andrey Pulyaev threw in June, which Ruziboev caught, turned into a takedown, rode to the back, and finished before the four-minute mark of round one.
Truth A
The safe version of Page wins this without drama. He owns a three-inch reach edge, lands 58% to Ruziboev's 46%, and the Uzbek has never faced anybody this hard to find. Against Joaquin Buckley, the most explosive athlete on his resume, Ruziboev finished three rounds without a single takedown attempt.
Truth B
The safe version of Page is precisely what he promised not to be this time. He hasn't scored one knockdown across 15 UFC rounds, and now he's talking about finishing somebody. Every risk he takes chasing that is an invitation to a man with 21 career submissions who only needs a moment.
Tale of the Tape
Page turns 40 in April
Ruziboev is two inches taller
Shorter man, longer arms: Page owns a three-inch reach edge
UFC.com reported the move from Marquez MMA to American Top Team; Sherdog still lists him at UZB Patriot / Renzo Gracie Philly
Opposite profiles for how a fight ends
Current Form
Michael Page
Booed every round at the O2. Won it 29-28, 30-27, 29-28 in a fight he himself called frustrating.
Unanimous DecisionUFC 319. Gave up two takedowns and 8:14 of control, landed 29 to 20 in significant strikes, and swept the cards.
Unanimous DecisionBanked the first two rounds at range, then handed over the third, where Magomedov landed 22 of 32. Magomedov never shot once, and the only takedown attempt all night was a failed Page entry in round one.
Unanimous DecisionUFC 303. Page actually outlanded him 21-19, but Garry piled up 7:29 of control time and two submission attempts and swept the cards.
Unanimous DecisionUFC 299 debut and his best night in the Octagon. Landed 41 to 29 and survived Holland's two takedowns.
Unanimous DecisionThree straight wins, including one over Jared Cannonier at UFC 319, and the momentum is still murky. All five of his UFC fights were three-rounders and went to the cards, with zero knockdowns scored across 15 rounds, and the last one, against Sam Patterson in London, drew boos at every horn. Page called the performance frustrating and admitted he couldn't adjust mid-fight. At 39, with his deal expiring and no title path in front of him, he arrives saying he wants a finish. It's the first time in years his stated intent contradicts what his record actually shows.
Nursulton Ruziboev
Caught a mistimed body kick, turned it into a takedown, climbed to the back with both hooks, and squeezed at 3:58. His 50th pro fight.
Sub R1Outlanded him 35-21, but got taken down twice and had to defend two submission attempts. Lost round three on strikes.
Unanimous DecisionTwo knockdowns and a stoppage 33 seconds into round two. Twenty significant strikes to five.
TKO R2His only UFC loss, and his only fight at 170. Buckley went 4-for-4 on takedowns and won round three 64-16.
Unanimous DecisionKnockdown and a finish at 3:18 of the first, on 12 significant strikes landed all fight.
TKO R1Five wins in six UFC trips, unbeaten at 185 pounds, with four of those five wins ending before the final horn. Three in a row right now. The caveat is the calendar: he sat out 13 months with injuries between May 2025 and June 2026, so he's had exactly one fight in the last 15 months. The return went well, choking out Pulyaev in under four minutes, and he's turning around on 10 weeks' rest. He also changed homes in that stretch, telling UFC.com he left Marquez MMA in Philadelphia for American Top Team in Coconut Creek, and helped Khamzat Chimaev prepare for UFC 328.
Level of Competition
The resume gap is the strongest argument for Page and the most uncomfortable one for Ruziboev. Across five UFC fights, the Englishman has faced Kevin Holland, Ian Machado Garry, Shara Magomedov and Jared Cannonier, four names either ranked or knocking on the top 15. Ruziboev built his 5-1 on Brunno Ferreira, Sedriques Dumas, Eric McConico, Dustin Stoltzfus and Andrey Pulyaev, none of them ranked. The one time he stepped up in class, against Joaquin Buckley, he lost a unanimous decision while eating 86 significant strikes. There are no common opponents between them.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes per Minute
Low output on both sides. This is not a firefight.
Striking Accuracy (%)
Strikes Absorbed per Minute
Page is one of the hardest men to touch in the division.
Striking Defense (%)
Takedowns per 15 Min
Takedown Accuracy (%)
The Uzbek barely misses when he decides to shoot. Trouble is, he rarely shoots.
Takedown Defense (%)
The number that decides the fight: Page gives up takedowns, Ruziboev gives up far more.
Submissions per 15 Min
Page leads in 4 categories · Ruziboev leads in 4
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Both men own 13 career knockouts, and neither gets there the same way. All 13 of Page's came before the UFC, in Bellator and on the British circuit, off flying knees, spinning kicks and leg kicks, and he hasn't ended a fight early since March 2023. Ruziboev is the opposite of a decision fighter: 34 of his 37 wins ended before the horn and 21 of them came by submission, more than half of everything he's ever won. For the method here it pulls in opposite directions: Page has no recent history of finishing anybody, and Ruziboev barely knows how to win any other way.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
This is the number that matters most in this matchup. Michael Page has never been submitted in 28 professional fights, zero for zero, and the only knockout on his ledger came from Douglas Lima in May 2019. His other two losses were decisions, both to men who grabbed hold and controlled him: Logan Storley over five rounds and Ian Machado Garry over three. The documented blueprint to beat Page is on the scorecards, not on the mat. On the other side, Ruziboev lost seven of nine on the cards, 78%, and has been stopped twice in 50 pro fights, the last time in October 2016. Both profiles point the same direction: this fight is far more likely to end on the cards than the Uzbek's submission count suggests.
Skills Profile
Page
vs
Ruziboev
Striking at Range
+4 Page
Page lands 58% and absorbs 1.51 per minute, with three inches of reach on a man hitting 46% of his shots.
Close-Range Striking
+3 Ruziboev
Pinned on the fence, Ruziboev uses the 6-foot-5 frame and the clinch to hunt the back. Page has no offense at that range.
Knockout Power
+1 Ruziboev
Counterintuitive one: Ruziboev has scored three knockdowns in six UFC fights, Page zero in five.
Striking Defense
+4 Page
62% defense to 49%, and 1.51 strikes absorbed per minute to 2.68. The widest gap in the fight.
Grappling & Clinch
+4 Ruziboev
Twenty-one submissions and 80% takedown accuracy against a man who offers almost no offensive ground game in the UFC, at 0.19 takedowns per 15 minutes.
Cardio (3 Rounds)
+2 Page
Page has gone the distance in all five UFC fights. Ruziboev lost round three to Stoltzfus and got outlanded 64-16 in the third by Buckley.
Page owns the first three inches and the first half-second of every exchange. Ruziboev owns everything that happens after contact. The whole fight is one question: who decides where it takes place.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
Conviction5/10The thesis is: Michael Page wins because he controls where the fight happens, with three inches of reach and 58% accuracy against Ruziboev's 46%, because the Uzbek has never solved the problem of catching a mobile athlete and went a full 15 minutes against Joaquin Buckley without a single takedown attempt, and because the level of opposition isn't close: Holland, Garry, Shara Magomedov and Cannonier on one side, Ferreira, Dumas, McConico, Stoltzfus and Pulyaev on the other.
The thesis is: Michael Page wins because he controls where the fight happens, with three inches of reach and 58% accuracy against Ruziboev's 46%, because the Uzbek has never solved the problem of catching a mobile athlete and went a full 15 minutes against Joaquin Buckley without a single takedown attempt, and because the level of opposition isn't close: Holland, Garry, Shara Magomedov and Cannonier on one side, Ferreira, Dumas, McConico, Stoltzfus and Pulyaev on the other.
The path is Page opening early on counters and footwork, refusing the clinch on the fence, conceding a takedown or two without consequence the way he did against Cannonier at UFC 319, and walking out with two or three rounds on the cards. It breaks down if Page delivers on the public promise to chase a finish and hands Ruziboev a kick or an entry to grab, exactly the way the Uzbek got Pulyaev in June.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
If Page opens round one hunting the knockout he promised, throwing head kicks and sitting in long combinations, he's offering up the one thing Ruziboev knows how to cash in.
- 02
If Ruziboev pins Page on the fence for more than a straight minute in any round, the premise that he can't cut space on a mobile athlete is already dead.
- 03
If Page shows up slow, with output under his own 2.28 strikes per minute, at 39 and coming off a night he himself called frustrating, the range argument becomes theory.
- 04
If Ruziboev reaches round three upright and with gas in the tank, his late-round drop-off, 64-16 against Buckley and a lost third to Stoltzfus, stops being a factor.
Underdog Path
Ruziboev doesn't try to chase Page around the cage, because he has already proven he can't do that. He cuts the space walking forward, accepts eating counters on the way in with his 49% defense, and waits. Somewhere in the first 10 minutes Page, who needs a finish to renegotiate his contract, throws a head kick or a body kick, or stays in a combination longer than he normally would. The Uzbek grabs the leg or the body, walks him to the fence, completes the takedown with the 80% accuracy he carries, climbs to the back with both hooks, and closes the choke. That's the entire Pulyaev sequence from June, start to finish.
Required Conditions
- Survive the opening minutes without accumulating counter damage, carrying only 49% striking defense
- Cut the space walking forward and pin Page on the fence, something he never managed once against Buckley
- Catch a Page kick or entry and convert it into a takedown, his only route to the mat against a man who stuffs 70% of attempts
- Climb to the back quickly, because Page has never been submitted in 28 professional fights and knows how to ride out control
— Precedent: Ruziboev vs Andrey Pulyaev (UFC Baku, June 2026): the Uzbek caught a mistimed body kick, converted it into a takedown, climbed to the back with both hooks and finished at 3:58 of round one. On Page's side there's Logan Storley at Bellator 281 in May 2022, when a pure grappler claimed the vacant interim title by split decision over five rounds simply by refusing to let the fight happen at range.
Verdict
Winner
Michael Page
Method
Decision
Most Likely
- 01
Winner
Michael Page
Page because this fight gets decided at range and he owns three inches of reach, 58% accuracy to 46%, and 1.51 strikes absorbed per minute to 2.68. But the number moved: it opened and sits on, which implies 65%, while my own read has him at 53%. There is no value left at that price, so this is a pass on the moneyline unless a book gives it back or better. Breaks if Page opens up chasing the knockout he promised and hands over a kick or an entry for the Uzbek to grab.
- 02
How It Ends (Either Fighter)
Fight goes to decision
Decision because all five of Page's UFC fights went to the cards with zero knockdowns scored, and Ruziboev has been knocked out once and submitted once in 50 professional fights, back in December 2014 and October 2016, both on the regional circuit and neither in the UFC. It's the cleanest structural read of the night and it's worth more than the moneyline. Breaks if Page actually delivers on the promise to hunt a finish and the fight turns chaotic, which is exactly the setting where the Uzbek finds the back.
Most Likely Outcome
Fight goes to decision
It's the one read in this analysis that doesn't depend on me getting the winner right, and that matters in a fight I see. The margin here is genuinely thin: anyone taking Page should size it down, and anyone who likes the underdog should back him by submission rather than on the moneyline, because Ruziboev has just three decision wins in 37.
Stats That Matter
5 of 5
of Page's UFC fights that went to the scorecards
Zero knockdowns scored across 15 rounds in the Octagon
3
decision wins for Ruziboev out of 37 total
Thirty-four of the 37 ended before the final horn
8:14
of ground control Cannonier piled up at UFC 319 and lost anyway
Holding Page down has never been the same thing as beating him
The Trap
Page by knockout
The public is going to see 13 career knockouts, the flying-knee and spinning-kick highlight reel, and his fight-week line about wanting a finish, and pile onto Page inside the distance. Except Page hasn't ended a fight early since March 2023, hasn't scored a single knockdown across 15 UFC rounds, and produces 2.28 significant strikes per minute, one of the lowest outputs in the division. On the other side, Ruziboev has been stopped twice in 50 professional fights, a TKO in December 2014 and a kimura in October 2016, both on the regional circuit. It's the most tempting bet on the card and the least supported one.
The public is going to see 13 career knockouts, the flying-knee and spinning-kick highlight reel, and his fight-week line about wanting a finish, and pile onto Page inside the distance. Except Page hasn't ended a fight early since March 2023, hasn't scored a single knockdown across 15 UFC rounds, and produces 2.28 significant strikes per minute, one of the lowest outputs in the division. On the other side, Ruziboev has been stopped twice in 50 professional fights, a TKO in December 2014 and a kimura in October 2016, both on the regional circuit. It's the most tempting bet on the card and the least supported one.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Michael "Venom" Page vs Nursulton "Black" Ruziboev | UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse | September 5, 2026 | Accor Arena, Paris, France
Unlock the full card
Add your card and every fight on the event opens right away. The first 7 days cost nothing, and you can cancel anytime.
- Every fight on the card, main event through early prelims
- Likely winner, method and conviction level on each fight
- Upcoming cards come with the same access
Pick a plan. The first 7 days cost nothing.
Card now, first charge only when the 7 days end. Cancel anytime.
By subscribing you agree to the Terms of Service and Privacy Policy. See the Refund Policy.