September 19, 2026 · Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, United States
O'Neill
11-2-0
#12 Women's FlyweightIrvine, Scotland | 28 years old
Moura
12-2-0
#13 Women's FlyweightRiachuelo, Brazil | 32 years old
Volume vs. the Takedown
O'Neill came back from a knee injury her own surgeon thought might end her career and scored a three-minute knockout. Moura is the first opponent since then who's going to try to drag the fight to the mat.
Conviction
Conviction 6. What holds up the pick is a concrete fit: both of Moura's losses came against women who nearly tripled her output on the feet while conceding long stretches on the mat, and O'Neill's volume lives at that level. Her takedown defense has a track record too, with Luana Santos completing one of five and Jennifer Maia none of four. What keeps it from a 7 is that the entire track record predates January 2025. The right knee was rebuilt after an injury in a wrestling exchange, and nobody attempted a takedown in the comeback against Fernandes, so the variable most likely to decide this fight has never been tested. On top of that, Moura's most recent loss came from a camp she called the worst of her life, with a fresh diagnosis and a missed weight cut, so the version who shows up in Los Angeles could be better than the one who lost to Wang. And judges reward control when the striking is close, as her win over Hardy proved. The line sits right around our 60%, so there's no hidden value on the favorite.
Conviction 6. What holds up the pick is a concrete fit: both of Moura's losses came against women who nearly tripled her output on the feet while conceding long stretches on the mat, and O'Neill's volume lives at that level. Her takedown defense has a track record too, with Luana Santos completing one of five and Jennifer Maia none of four. What keeps it from a 7 is that the entire track record predates January 2025. The right knee was rebuilt after an injury in a wrestling exchange, and nobody attempted a takedown in the comeback against Fernandes, so the variable most likely to decide this fight has never been tested. On top of that, Moura's most recent loss came from a camp she called the worst of her life, with a fresh diagnosis and a missed weight cut, so the version who shows up in Los Angeles could be better than the one who lost to Wang. And judges reward control when the striking is close, as her win over Hardy proved. The line sits right around our 60%, so there's no hidden value on the favorite.
THE PARADOX
The Knee Nobody Has Tested
On January 8, 2025, in a wrestling session, Casey O'Neill tore her ACL, MCL, LCL and both menisci in her right knee all at once, and fractured her tibia for good measure. It was the second major knee injury of her career, after tearing the ACL in her other knee in 2022. She came back in March 2026 and knocked out Gabriella Fernandes in 3:11 without either woman attempting a single takedown. Which means that inside the Octagon, the rebuilt knee has yet to face Eduarda Moura's main weapon. And Moura is going to use it. She's attempted 48 takedowns in five UFC fights, completed 16, and spent 41% of her Octagon time in control. Her problem is that control alone doesn't close the deal: against Denise Gomes she banked 6:36 of control and got outlanded 50-18; against Wang Cong she banked 8:06, ate a knockdown and got outlanded 39-12. Hardy and Ruiz lost to Moura because they couldn't get out from underneath. The women who beat her landed far more in the minutes on the feet. O'Neill lands 7.89 significant strikes per minute, more than triple Moura's output, and in eight UFC fights no opponent has banked more than 2:50 of control on her in a full fight.
On January 8, 2025, in a wrestling session, Casey O'Neill tore her ACL, MCL, LCL and both menisci in her right knee all at once, and fractured her tibia for good measure. It was the second major knee injury of her career, after tearing the ACL in her other knee in 2022. She came back in March 2026 and knocked out Gabriella Fernandes in 3:11 without either woman attempting a single takedown. Which means that inside the Octagon, the rebuilt knee has yet to face Eduarda Moura's main weapon. And Moura is going to use it. She's attempted 48 takedowns in five UFC fights, completed 16, and spent 41% of her Octagon time in control. Her problem is that control alone doesn't close the deal: against Denise Gomes she banked 6:36 of control and got outlanded 50-18; against Wang Cong she banked 8:06, ate a knockdown and got outlanded 39-12. Hardy and Ruiz lost to Moura because they couldn't get out from underneath. The women who beat her landed far more in the minutes on the feet. O'Neill lands 7.89 significant strikes per minute, more than triple Moura's output, and in eight UFC fights no opponent has banked more than 2:50 of control on her in a full fight.
Truth A
Moura's losing script is alive and recent: Gomes in 2024 and Wang in 2026 nearly tripled her output on the feet and won despite giving up long stretches on the mat. O'Neill throws 7.89 per minute, exactly the kind of volume that wins rounds against someone who spends her time grappling.
Truth B
Every one of O'Neill's takedown defense numbers predates January 2025. The knee that got wrecked in a wrestling exchange hasn't faced a takedown attempt in the Octagon, and Moura arrives off her first full camp alongside Virna Jandiroba.
Tale of the Tape
O'Neill is four years younger
O'Neill has a 2-inch reach edge
Current Form
Casey O'Neill
Back after 19 months and a rebuilt knee. Caught Fernandes clean on the jaw at distance and finished her with punches at 3:11 of round 1, in a fight the books had lined up close to a pick'em.
KO R130-27, 30-27, 30-26. Outlanded Santos 83-41, stuffed four of her five takedown attempts and took her back late in round 3.
Unanimous DecisionLipski rocked her early in round 2 and clipped her with a head kick. O'Neill shot for a takedown, ended up on bottom and got caught in an armbar at 1:18.
Sub R2First fight back from a 2022 ACL tear. Maia won the striking battle 145-137 and took it 30-27, 29-28, 29-28. The first loss of O'Neill's career.
Unanimous DecisionLanded 229 significant strikes in 15 minutes. Modafferi completed two takedowns but could never keep O'Neill down.
Split DecisionTwo straight wins after two straight losses, and the latest one was a comeback nobody saw coming. In January 2025, O'Neill blew out her right knee in a wrestling session: ACL, MCL, LCL, both menisci and a fractured tibia, all at once. She spent three months unable to put weight on the leg, heard her surgeon say she might never fight again, went back to training in Thailand and knocked out Gabriella Fernandes at 3:11 of round 1 in March. She's No. 12 in the rankings. The caveat is simple: that was three minutes on the feet, with zero takedown attempts from either side.
Eduarda Moura
Both women missed weight at 127.5 pounds. Got dropped late in round 1, dominated round 2 with 4:31 of control and took the back, but got outlanded 39-12. Lost 30-27, 29-28, 29-28.
Unanimous DecisionRetirement fight for the 41-year-old former title challenger, who hadn't fought since 2023. Moura won the standup 64-38 and added two takedowns, but nearly got caught in a guillotine in round 3. Three 29-28 cards.
Unanimous DecisionFlyweight debut. Lost the striking 46-26, but three takedowns and 4:13 of control, nearly all of it in round 2, earned her 30-27, 29-28, 29-28.
Unanimous DecisionAt strawweight, after another weight miss. Went 5-for-26 on takedowns and banked 6:36 of control, but got outlanded 50-18.
Split DecisionUFC debut in São Paulo after missing weight. Three takedowns on three attempts and a TKO with punches from mount at 2:14 of round 2.
TKO R2Moura was riding two straight wins when she lost to Wang Cong in February, and that loss came with context. Less than two weeks later she went public with a bipolar disorder diagnosis, saying it was the hardest camp of her life, that she couldn't train the way she needed to or make weight, and that she had started treatment. In late December, about six weeks before that fight, she'd moved from Galpão da Luta to Fight House in Feira de Santana, where she trains alongside Virna Jandiroba and Iasmin Lucindo. So this is her first full camp with the new team, and she comes in at No. 13. The lingering question is the scale: she's missed weight in three of her five UFC fights.
Level of Competition
No common opponents. O'Neill has faced a slightly higher tier: Jennifer Maia was ranked No. 8, Roxanne Modafferi and Gabriella Fernandes were both inside the top 15, and her two losses came against tough veterans in Maia and Ariane Lipski. The best opponent Moura has faced in the UFC is Wang Cong, now No. 8, and she lost. Her wins came over Montserrat Conejo Ruiz, Veronica Hardy and a 41-year-old Lauren Murphy in a farewell fight. Neither woman has fought a top-five opponent.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes per Minute
O'Neill produces three times Moura's volume
Striking Accuracy (%)
Strikes Absorbed per Minute
O'Neill is willing to trade; Moura spends much of the fight grappling
Striking Defense (%)
Takedowns per 15 Min
Moura attempted 48 takedowns in five UFC fights and completed 16
Takedown Accuracy (%)
Takedown Defense (%)
O'Neill's 70% was compiled before the knee reconstruction; nobody has tried to take her down since she came back
Submissions per 15 Min
O'Neill leads in 3 categories · Moura leads in 4
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
O'Neill is the more balanced winner: four knockouts, two submissions and five decisions, with three of those four knockouts coming inside the UFC. Moura's numbers look like a finisher's, nine stoppages in 12 wins, but the context changes everything: eight of those finishes came on the Brazilian regional circuit and at the Contender Series, seven of them in round 1. In the UFC she has one TKO, punches from mount in her debut, and two decisions. For the method pick, what matters is that the version of Moura who shows up in the Octagon wins on the cards.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Both women have only two losses, far too small a sample to call it a vulnerability pattern, but how they lost matters. Moura has never been finished: both losses came on the cards, to Denise Gomes and Wang Cong, and in both she banked more than six minutes of control and still lost because she got beaten up on the feet, 50-18 and 39-12 in significant strikes. O'Neill dropped a striking decision to Jennifer Maia and a submission to Ariane Lipski, who rocked her on the feet before she ever locked in the armbar. Neither of O'Neill's losses came from someone holding her down for rounds at a time.
Skills Profile
O'Neill
vs
Moura
Striking at Range
+4 O'Neill
O'Neill lands 7.89 significant strikes per minute to Moura's 2.57, and put 229 on Modafferi in a single fight.
Close-Range Striking
+1 O'Neill
O'Neill still outworks her up close, but that's exactly where Moura grabs hold, pins her to the fence and hunts the takedown.
Knockout Power
+2 O'Neill
O'Neill has three UFC knockouts, the latest in 3:11 against Fernandes; Moura hasn't scored a single knockdown in five UFC fights.
Striking Defense
+1 Moura
O'Neill absorbs 5.53 strikes per minute because she's willing to trade; Moura absorbs 2.50, though Wang Cong dropped her late in round 1.
Grappling & Clinch
+2 Moura
Moura attempted 48 takedowns in five UFC fights and spent 41% of her Octagon time in control; O'Neill knows how to take the back in scrambles, as she did against Luana Santos, but it isn't her game.
Cardio (3 Rounds)
+1 O'Neill
Moura looked gassed after round 1 against Wang Cong and nearly got choked out by Murphy in round 3; O'Neill landed 70-plus strikes in every round against Modafferi.
O'Neill wins wherever the fight happens on the feet, which is most of the time in nearly every fight she's had. Moura wins on the mat. The question isn't who's more skilled, it's how many minutes Moura can steal from the striking before O'Neill's volume decides the rounds.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
Conviction6/10The thesis is: Casey O'Neill wins because she lands 7.89 significant strikes per minute to Moura's 2.57, because the script that beat Moura is alive and recent, with Denise Gomes in 2024 and Wang Cong in 2026 winning the striking 50-18 and 39-12 despite giving up 6:36 and 8:06 of control, and because in eight UFC fights no opponent has banked more than 2:50 of control on O'Neill, who stuffed four of Luana Santos' five takedown attempts and all four of Jennifer Maia's, while Moura arrives after missing weight in three of five UFC fights and coming off a camp she herself called the hardest of her life.
The thesis is: Casey O'Neill wins because she lands 7.89 significant strikes per minute to Moura's 2.57, because the script that beat Moura is alive and recent, with Denise Gomes in 2024 and Wang Cong in 2026 winning the striking 50-18 and 39-12 despite giving up 6:36 and 8:06 of control, and because in eight UFC fights no opponent has banked more than 2:50 of control on O'Neill, who stuffed four of Luana Santos' five takedown attempts and all four of Jennifer Maia's, while Moura arrives after missing weight in three of five UFC fights and coming off a camp she herself called the hardest of her life.
The path is O'Neill escaping the early takedown attempts on the fence, keeping the fight standing for most of every round, and piling up volume to take two rounds on the cards, with a late stoppage possible if Moura's gas tank drops the way it did against Wang. It breaks down if the rebuilt right knee can't hold up in the grappling exchanges and Moura lands early takedowns in two rounds, takes the back and rides for three or four minutes the way she did against Veronica Hardy.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
If Moura completes a takedown in round 1 and banks more than three minutes on top, O'Neill's 70% takedown defense, all of it compiled before surgery, no longer applies to this fight.
- 02
If O'Neill stops kicking and moves less than she did against Fernandes, it's a sign the right knee is limiting her base and her sprawl.
- 03
If Moura reaches round 3 at the same pace she started with, the read that she fades late, built on a camp she described as broken, loses its weight.
- 04
If O'Neill starts shooting takedowns herself and ends up on bottom, the way it happened against Ariane Lipski.
Underdog Path
Moura doesn't strike at range. She closes the distance at the start of every round, pins O'Neill to the fence and chains takedown attempts until one lands, testing a right knee that hasn't faced a single takedown in the Octagon since surgery. On the mat she goes to the back the way she did against Hardy and Wang, locks in the hooks and banks three or four minutes of control per round. She takes rounds 1 and 2 on the cards, just like the judges gave her the Hardy fight despite being outlanded 46-26, then either manages round 3 or finds a rear-naked choke on an O'Neill who's worn down from carrying her weight.
Required Conditions
- Finish a takedown inside the first two minutes of at least two rounds, before O'Neill's volume piles up
- Hold position for three minutes or more in each of those rounds without giving up the scramble O'Neill used to take Luana Santos' back
- Survive the minutes on the feet without getting dropped, like she did against Wang Cong late in round 1
- Make weight and have the gas for 15 minutes, after three weight misses in five UFC fights
— Precedent: Moura vs. Veronica Hardy (UFC 309, November 2024): Moura lost the striking 46-26, but three takedowns on four attempts and 4:13 of control earned her 30-27, 29-28, 29-28. On O'Neill's side, the loss to Ariane Lipski (UFC 296, December 2023) showed she can be submitted once she ends up on bottom against a jiu-jitsu fighter, although Lipski rocked her on the feet first.
Verdict
Winner
Casey O'Neill
Method
Decision
Most Likely
- 01
Winner
Casey O'Neill
O'Neill because 7.89 significant strikes per minute is the exact profile that beat Moura both times she lost, and her takedown defense has a real history against fighters who shoot. The market already prices her around 61% and we have her at 60%, so there's no hidden value: small stake. Breaks if Moura gets her down early and holds her there for two rounds.
- 02
How It Ends (Either Fighter)
Fight goes to decision
Decision because Moura has never been finished in 14 pro fights, four of her five UFC bouts went the distance, and her takedown game burns clock. We price it around 70%. Breaks if O'Neill hurts her on the feet the way she hurt Fernandes, or if Moura takes the back of a tired O'Neill.
- 03
Method
O'Neill by decision
It's the central scenario of this breakdown: volume on the feet winning at least two rounds, with Moura unable to turn control into a win, just like against Gomes and Wang. Only worth it or better, which is our fair price, because the margin is thin. Breaks if O'Neill's knee gives out in the grappling exchanges.
Most Likely Outcome
Fight goes to decision, once the line posts
It's the most solid read in this breakdown because it doesn't hinge on who wins: Moura has never been finished and grabs to burn clock, and O'Neill has been finished once, only after getting rocked on the feet. The moneyline is already fairly priced, so a conviction-6 read is better spent on the method.
Stats That Matter
7.89
O'Neill's significant strikes per minute in the UFC, against Moura's 2.57
The same kind of volume that beat Moura both times she lost
8:06
of control time for Moura against Wang Cong, in a fight she lost 30-27, 29-28, 29-28
Against Denise Gomes she banked 6:36 of control and lost that one too
2:50
the most control time any opponent has banked on O'Neill in a single fight, across eight UFC bouts
All of it before her right knee was rebuilt in January 2025
The Trap
O'Neill by knockout
The public remembers the 3:11 knockout of Gabriella Fernandes and will bet O'Neill by KO. But Moura has never been finished in 14 pro fights, ate a knockdown from Wang Cong and still made it to the final bell, and four of her five UFC fights went the distance. Worse, her whole game is to grab and hold, which strips O'Neill of exactly the minutes on the feet where knockouts happen. If O'Neill wins, a decision on volume is the likeliest route.
The public remembers the 3:11 knockout of Gabriella Fernandes and will bet O'Neill by KO. But Moura has never been finished in 14 pro fights, ate a knockdown from Wang Cong and still made it to the final bell, and four of her five UFC fights went the distance. Worse, her whole game is to grab and hold, which strips O'Neill of exactly the minutes on the feet where knockouts happen. If O'Neill wins, a decision on volume is the likeliest route.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Casey "King" O'Neill vs Eduarda "Ronda" Moura | UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 | September 19, 2026 | Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, United States
Unlock the full card
Add your card and every fight on the event opens right away. The first 7 days cost nothing, and you can cancel anytime.
- Every fight on the card, main event through early prelims
- Likely winner, method and conviction level on each fight
- Upcoming cards come with the same access
Pick a plan. The first 7 days cost nothing.
Card now, first charge only when the 7 days end. Cancel anytime.
By subscribing you agree to the Terms of Service and Privacy Policy. See the Refund Policy.