June 27, 2026 · National Gymnastics Arena, Baku
Ofli
14-4-1
N/RMelbourne, Australia | 32 years old
Reyes
23-5-0
N/RBogota, Colombia | 32 years old
Durability vs Power
Ofli is the guy nobody can put away, with real UFC seasoning. Reyes is the underdog who's a betting favorite because he finishes almost everyone. Reach and pop on one side, mileage and a granite chin on the other.
O PONTO QUE DECIDE
Iron Chin Meets Stone Fists
This fight fits into one question: Reyes' power runs into the first chin that might not crack. Kaan Ofli has gone 19 pro fights and been stopped exactly once, by Mairon Santos, a heavy hitter, back in August 2024. Other than that, he's always seen the final bell. He weathered Naimov for three rounds, weathered Yizha in a war where both men got wobbled, and has never been submitted in any fight. Durability is his identity. Across from him is the Colombian who finishes almost everyone. That's 17 stoppages in 23 wins, 11 by knockout and 8 by submission, with nine first-round finishes. Reyes rolls in off three straight stoppages, including a UFC debut over veteran Douglas Silva de Andrade that he wrapped up with one second left in round 1. Stack on a 7-inch reach edge, a real problem for a guy like Ofli who only lands 2.33 strikes per minute. The detail that tips the scale most is Ofli's history of losing on the mat and his leaky UFC takedown defense. Reyes isn't just a banger: he mixes in takedowns and clinch work. If the heavy hands don't get it done at range, the path to the floor is wide open.
This fight fits into one question: Reyes' power runs into the first chin that might not crack. Kaan Ofli has gone 19 pro fights and been stopped exactly once, by Mairon Santos, a heavy hitter, back in August 2024. Other than that, he's always seen the final bell. He weathered Naimov for three rounds, weathered Yizha in a war where both men got wobbled, and has never been submitted in any fight. Durability is his identity. Across from him is the Colombian who finishes almost everyone. That's 17 stoppages in 23 wins, 11 by knockout and 8 by submission, with nine first-round finishes. Reyes rolls in off three straight stoppages, including a UFC debut over veteran Douglas Silva de Andrade that he wrapped up with one second left in round 1. Stack on a 7-inch reach edge, a real problem for a guy like Ofli who only lands 2.33 strikes per minute. The detail that tips the scale most is Ofli's history of losing on the mat and his leaky UFC takedown defense. Reyes isn't just a banger: he mixes in takedowns and clinch work. If the heavy hands don't get it done at range, the path to the floor is wide open.
Tale of the Tape
The biggest physical gap in the fight: a 7-inch reach edge for Reyes
Reyes comes from the regional circuit and the Contender Series, Ofli already has UFC mileage
Current Form
Kaan Ofli
UFC 325, at home in Sydney. An even war where both men got wobbled. Ofli pressured, got the takedown, and was the busier man in the third to take a majority decision on cards plenty of people questioned.
Majority DecisionTook veteran Ricardo Ramos' back and locked in the rear-naked choke at 3:02 of round 1. Showcased the submission game that's his biggest weapon.
Sub R1Outpointed by Naimov across three rounds, a volume striker who dictated the range. The blueprint to beat Ofli: volume and distance, never let him grab hold.
Unanimous DecisionUFC debut out of TUF. Stopped by knockout artist Mairon Santos in round 2. The only time in his entire career anyone has put Ofli away before the bell.
TKO R2A unanimous decision loss to Issac Hardman on the Australian circuit, early in his career. More proof that when Ofli loses, it's on the cards, not by getting flattened.
Unanimous DecisionTwo straight wins and 2-2 in the UFC. He's coming off what was essentially a split-flavored majority decision over Yizha, a hard fight where both men got rocked, and before that a clean submission of veteran Ricardo Ramos. The result trend is positive, but the level of opposition steps up now. His edge is clear: a tested chin, a dangerous ground game, and the experience of having shared the cage with UFC-caliber names like Naimov and Mairon Santos.
Javier Reyes
UFC debut in Mexico. Ate an early overhand, fired back a combo, chased the Brazilian to the canvas and hammered away. Got the finish with one second left in round 1, the buzzer-beater.
TKO R1Contender Series. Set the pace, hurt Torres with a right to the body, and swarmed, landing knees in the clinch until he sat his man down. Earned the contract.
TKO R1Took the back and locked in a rear-naked choke in round 2. A reminder that his game isn't only in the hands, the submission shows up too.
Sub R2A decision stumble against veteran Chris Mecate in a close one. The last time Reyes didn't end the fight with his own hands.
DecisionAn uppercut that dropped his man and a follow-up flurry to close it at 1:29 of round 1. The portrait of who he is: explosion and a finisher's instinct.
TKO R1Red-hot. Three straight stoppages and wins in 13 of his last 15. He earned his contract by flattening Justice Torres with knees on the Contender Series, then debuted in the UFC with a buzzer-beater TKO over the tough Douglas Silva de Andrade, one second before the round ended. The one caveat is big: he's the man with the least UFC mileage in this fight, and in that very debut he ate an overhand that wobbled him before he turned it around.
Level of Competition
No common opponents. The difference is in the nature of the mileage. Ofli already has four UFC fights, against the likes of Naimov, Mairon Santos and Yizha, so he knows the rhythm and pressure of the big stage. Reyes built his big record on the regional circuit and the Contender Series, with a single UFC fight, but one that produced a finish. Even calibre on paper, with the experience scale tipping to the Australian and the momentum scale tipping to the Colombian.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes por Minuto
Reyes has more volume and accuracy, but that number comes from a tiny sample at this level
Precisão de Strikes (%)
Strikes Absorvidos/Min
Ofli absorbs a lot, a sign he accepts the trade and takes shots
Defesa de Strikes (%)
Takedowns por 15 Min
Reyes is the more active man on the takedown, mixing wrestling into his striking
Precisão de Takedown (%)
Defesa de Takedown (%)
Ofli's weak spot in the UFC: leaky takedown defense, and Reyes shoots
Submissões por 15 Min
Ofli leads in 1 categories · Reyes leads in 7
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Two finishers, but different types. Reyes is the more explosive and complete one: 11 knockouts and 8 submissions, with nine first-round finishes, he ends fights standing and on the mat. Ofli is more of a submission artist than a knockout man, 7 subs to just 2 KOs, and needs the grappling game to shine. It matters for the method: Reyes can solve it with his hands at any moment, Ofli depends on taking the back or dragging it to the cards.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
The loss profiles tell the story. Ofli almost never gets stopped: of his 4 losses, 3 came on the cards and only 1 by strikes, that one to knockout artist Mairon Santos. He's never been submitted in his career. The blueprint to beat Ofli is on the scorecards or with raw power, not by submission. Reyes shows a more fragile profile: of his 5 losses, 2 by knockout, a sign that in a clean firefight against someone who hits hard, he can go down too. In a fight between two bangers, whoever lands first and cleanest steers the night.
Skills Profile
Ofli
vs
Reyes
Striking em Distância
+2 Reyes
Reyes has a 7-inch reach edge and more volume. He keeps Ofli on the end of his shots and dictates the range.
Striking em Curta Distância
+1 Reyes
In close both men trade heavy. Ofli accepts the war, but Reyes is the one who closes fights in the clinch, the way he did with knees on Torres.
Poder de Nocaute
+3 Reyes
11 knockouts in 23 wins and three straight stoppages for Reyes, against Ofli's 2 KOs. A real gap in stopping power.
Defesa de Striking
+1 Ofli
Ofli has 54% defense and has never been submitted, a chin tested over 19 fights. But Reyes hits what he aims. Nearly even.
Grappling e Clinch
+1 Ofli
Ofli has 7 submissions and a dangerous back game. Reyes shoots more and has 8 subs. Both finish, slight nod to the Australian on ground technique.
Cardio (3 rounds)
+1 Ofli
Ofli has proven three-round cardio against Naimov and Yizha. Reyes finishes early, so he has less deep-water mileage.
Reyes takes the range, the power and the reach. Ofli takes the chin, the UFC experience and the submission technique. The question is whether the Australian survives the Colombian's early explosion and drags it into deep water, where his mileage pays off, or whether Reyes' power and reach get it done first.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
The thesis is: Javier Reyes wins because he's the man with more stopping power and more reach, 11 knockouts in 23 wins and a 7-inch reach edge over an Ofli who lands just 2.33 strikes per minute, because the Australian's leaky UFC takedown defense opens the Colombian's second path, a man who shoots at 2 takedowns per 15 minutes and owns 8 submissions, and because the momentum and the finisher's instinct are on his side, three straight stoppages including the buzzer-beater in his debut, against an Ofli coming off two close decisions.
The thesis is: Javier Reyes wins because he's the man with more stopping power and more reach, 11 knockouts in 23 wins and a 7-inch reach edge over an Ofli who lands just 2.33 strikes per minute, because the Australian's leaky UFC takedown defense opens the Colombian's second path, a man who shoots at 2 takedowns per 15 minutes and owns 8 submissions, and because the momentum and the finisher's instinct are on his side, three straight stoppages including the buzzer-beater in his debut, against an Ofli coming off two close decisions.
The path is Reyes using his reach to control the range in the opening minutes, finding the heavy hand or taking it to the mat, and closing before the bell. It breaks down if Ofli's iron chin, cracked just once in 19 fights, weathers the early storm and drags this into deep water, where the Australian's UFC mileage and submission game pay off.
Conviction
Conviction 6, no higher, because the underdog path is concrete and has a name: Ofli has never been submitted and has been stopped only once in his life, so the route of surviving the hot minutes and taking it to the cards, the way Naimov did from the other direction, is real. What holds the conviction at 6 instead of dropping it to 5 is Reyes' stack of advantages across distinct dimensions: power (physical and stats), reach (physical), Ofli's leaky takedown defense (style) and the momentum of three finishes (momentum). This isn't a market read: the edge comes from the power, the reach and Ofli's defensive fragility on the mat, not from the line. The honest caveat is the level: Reyes has just one UFC fight, and the step up in competition is the biggest unknown.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
If Ofli weathers the first five minutes without getting wobbled, the early-knockout thesis loses steam and the fight drifts to the mileage territory where he's more experienced.
- 02
If Ofli can clinch up and take the back, his submission game, 7 subs in his career, flips the fight, because that's exactly where Reyes has been submitted before.
- 03
If Reyes' thin UFC sample comes due and he feels the rhythm of the big stage against a four-fight veteran, the inexperience shows and Ofli manages it on the cards.
- 04
If the fight goes the full three rounds, Ofli's tested cardio against Naimov and Yizha weighs more than that of Reyes, who almost always finishes early.
Underdog Path
Ofli doesn't take the bait into an early firefight, uses his iron chin to survive the Colombian's explosion in the opening minutes, tightens the clinch and hunts the takedown or the back, and if he doesn't finish, drags it into deep water. In the third round, with Reyes unaccustomed to long fights, the Australian is the busier man and manages the decision, exactly the way he survived Yizha in a similar war.
Required Conditions
- Survive the first five minutes without getting wobbled by Reyes' heavy hands and reach
- Close the distance and pull the Colombian off the end of his shots, where the 7-inch reach matters most
- Hunt the clinch and the back to activate his submission game, his biggest weapon
- Take the fight into the third round and use his UFC mileage to finish busier on the cards
— Precedent: Ofli vs Yizha (UFC 325, January 2026): in a war where both men got wobbled, Ofli weathered the punishment, was busier late, and took the decision. It shows his pattern of surviving the chaos and stealing the fight on mileage, exactly the path against a finisher like Reyes.
Verdict
Winner
Javier Reyes
Method
TKO
Most Likely
- 01
Winner
Javier Reyes
Reyes because he combines power, a 7-inch reach edge and Ofli's leaky takedown defense, with the momentum of three straight stoppages. The market already sees it, so there's no fat edge, it's a moderate-stake play. Breaks if Ofli's iron chin holds and the fight reaches deep water.
- 02
Método
Reyes by KO/TKO
Reyes by TKO because the heavy hands show up in nearly every fight, 11 KOs in 23 wins, and Ofli accepts the trade and absorbs 3.34 strikes per minute. The market pays because Ofli rarely gets stopped. Breaks if the Australian closes the distance and pulls the Colombian off the end of his shots.
- 03
Fight clears 1.5 rounds
Over 1.5 rounds
Over on rounds as a hedge because Ofli has never been submitted and has been stopped only once in 19 fights, so his chance of surviving the early minutes is real. Honest value against Reyes' reputation as a quick finisher. Breaks if Reyes lands clean early the way he did on Moctezuma.
- 04
Underdog winner
Ofli by decision
Ofli by decision because it's the cleanest way the underdog wins: survive the explosion, close the distance, and manage the cards with his UFC mileage, the path he used against Yizha. The market underrates the Australian's durability and experience. Breaks if he accepts the trade at range and eats Reyes' power.
Most Likely Outcome
Javier Reyes, moderate stake
It's the soundest read in the analysis, but conviction 6 means don't size it up. The power, the reach and Ofli's leaky takedown defense are real, but the Australian's iron chin and Reyes' thin UFC sample keep this well short of a safe bet.
Stats That Matter
7"
reach edge for Reyes, against an Ofli who lands just 2.33 strikes per minute
The reach dictates the range and forces the Australian to enter eating shots
1
the only time Ofli has been stopped in 19 pro fights, and never by submission
The iron chin is the underdog's biggest defense against Reyes' power
9
of Reyes' finishes have come in the first round, a sign of the finisher's instinct that ends fights early
If the fight doesn't end early, the terrain shifts to Ofli's side
The Trap
Reyes by early submission
The public will see Reyes' 8 submissions and nine first-round finishes and bet him by quick submission. But Ofli is precisely the fighter who has never been submitted in 19 fights, and he owns 7 subs of his own to threaten on the mat. If Reyes wins, it's far more likely to come by TKO on accumulated strikes or by decision on volume and reach, not by a submission that Ofli's ground game makes the least likely path.
The public will see Reyes' 8 submissions and nine first-round finishes and bet him by quick submission. But Ofli is precisely the fighter who has never been submitted in 19 fights, and he owns 7 subs of his own to threaten on the mat. If Reyes wins, it's far more likely to come by TKO on accumulated strikes or by decision on volume and reach, not by a submission that Ofli's ground game makes the least likely path.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Kaan "Genghis" Ofli vs Javier "Blair" Reyes | UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs Torres | June 27, 2026 | National Gymnastics Arena, Baku
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