June 20, 2026 · Meta APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Nascimento
22-6-0
NRSão Paulo, Brazil | 34 years old
Raposo
10-3-0
NRFall River, Massachusetts | 27 years old
The Takedown That Means Nothing
Raposo takes you down. Nascimento finishes you. At flyweight, the fight belongs to whoever does something with the mat.
O PONTO QUE DECIDE
Takedowns Aren't Wins
Both men live on the mat, but they're opposite kinds of grappler. Raposo is a pressure wrestler who lives on the entry, averaging 2.54 takedowns per 15 minutes, and that's his entire engine. Nascimento is a pure finisher, 16 of his 22 wins by submission, dangerous on top and off his back alike. The fight turns on what happens AFTER the takedown. Against Sumudaerji, Raposo hit six of 19 takedown attempts, racked up over four minutes of control, and still lost the split, because he got out-struck 45-9 and threatened nothing on the ground. His UFC submission average is 0.00. He takes you down and does no damage, hunts no finish, passes no guard. Now put that exact control wrestling against a man who has never been finished in his career and who treats the mat as a place to attack, not survive. The takedown that steals a round against a striker becomes a trap against a black belt hunting the neck on every transition.
Both men live on the mat, but they're opposite kinds of grappler. Raposo is a pressure wrestler who lives on the entry, averaging 2.54 takedowns per 15 minutes, and that's his entire engine. Nascimento is a pure finisher, 16 of his 22 wins by submission, dangerous on top and off his back alike. The fight turns on what happens AFTER the takedown. Against Sumudaerji, Raposo hit six of 19 takedown attempts, racked up over four minutes of control, and still lost the split, because he got out-struck 45-9 and threatened nothing on the ground. His UFC submission average is 0.00. He takes you down and does no damage, hunts no finish, passes no guard. Now put that exact control wrestling against a man who has never been finished in his career and who treats the mat as a place to attack, not survive. The takedown that steals a round against a striker becomes a trap against a black belt hunting the neck on every transition.
Truth A
Raposo's path is real: Nascimento's takedown defense is low (38% in the UFC), the Brazilian is 34, missed weight two fights ago and fought his last bout at catchweight. If Raposo keeps landing takedowns, he can steal the cards the way he nearly did against Sumudaerji.
Truth B
Wrestling with no damage and no submission threat is the kind of takedown that scores worst in modern MMA, and it drags Raposo straight into the zone where Nascimento is most dangerous. The American has never submitted anyone inside the Octagon. The Brazilian has never been submitted anywhere.
Tale of the Tape
Raposo is seven years younger
Nascimento is three inches taller
Five inches of reach for the Brazilian
Nascimento is the cage veteran
Current Form
Allan Nascimento
Catchweight bout. Submitted a tough wrestler with an anaconda choke in round 2. Proof he can absorb takedown pressure and turn the position into a finishing weapon.
Submission R2 (anaconda)Return after nearly two and a half years out. Missed weight (127.5 lbs). Traded ground control round by round, showed balance and scrambles, and took the cards.
Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)Rear-naked choke at 3:16 of round one. Took the back and closed fast. His pattern of early finishes once he hits the transition.
Submission R1 (RNC)Beat a hyped prospect on the cards. Neutralized the Englishman's ground game and controlled the exchanges.
Unanimous DecisionDropped a split to a ranked wrestler who banked control time. The exact script Raposo will try to copy.
Split DecisionFour straight wins, one of the longest active streaks at flyweight. He came back from two and a half years out and didn't miss a beat: outpointed Filho and submitted Durden. The real flag isn't form, it's the scale. He missed weight against Filho and fought Durden at catchweight. At 34, the weight cut is the variable that could eat his gas tank before he even walks out.
Mitch Raposo
First UFC win. Controlled with wrestling and control time against a then-unbeaten prospect. Showed the takedown game works against opponents with no ground answer.
Unanimous DecisionAttempted 19 takedowns, landed six, over four minutes of control, and lost the split. Got out-struck 45-9. The perfect snapshot of his problem: he takes you down and does no damage.
Split DecisionUFC debut, another razor-close split against an unbeaten Brazilian. One more fight of fine margins that slipped away on the cards.
Split DecisionKnockout on the regional scene (Cage Titans) that earned the contract. The power is real one level down.
KO/TKO R4Fast regional knockout. Confirms the KO shows up, but against far lighter opposition than the UFC level.
KO/TKO R11-2 in the UFC, but both losses were tight splits against Lima and Sumudaerji. He wasn't dominated in either, he slipped on the details. The Maksum win lifted the weight of an 0-3 start and proved the wrestling holds up at this level. His ceiling is clear: he controls, he takes you down, but he doesn't turn it into damage or a finish. At 27, there's still room to grow, and the takedown tenacity is genuine.
Level of Competition
No direct common opponents, but the cross-reference screams. Raposo lost a split to Andre Lima, the same technical Brazilian flyweight archetype Nascimento represents, only Nascimento is more experienced and a real finisher. And Nascimento's most recent loss, a split to Tagir Ulanbekov, is exactly the control-wrestling script Raposo will try to repeat. Both threads point to the same close fight on the cards.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes Landed per Min
Nascimento nearly doubles the American's striking volume
Striking Accuracy (%)
A big efficiency gap on the feet
Sig. Strikes Absorbed per Min
Striking Defense (%)
Raposo defends better but produces little
Takedowns per 15 Min
Raposo's engine: he doubles the takedown volume
Takedown Accuracy (%)
Takedown Defense (%)
The number that keeps Raposo alive: the Brazilian's takedown defense is low
Submissions per 15 Min
Nascimento threatens the finish, Raposo averages zero in the UFC
Nascimento leads in 4 categories · Raposo leads in 4
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
The numbers expose the asymmetry. Nascimento finishes: 16 of 22 wins by submission (73%), and his 1.05 submissions per 15 minutes in the UFC confirm the threat is constant. Raposo is more balanced (40% KO, 30% submission, 30% decision), but the KOs all came on the regional scene and he averages 0.00 submissions in the Octagon. Translated to this fight: if it goes to the ground, and it will, the side with a real chance to end it is the Brazilian. Raposo takes you down to score points, Nascimento goes to the ground to finish.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
This is the stat that reframes the fight. Nascimento has lost six times, all by decision. He has never been knocked out, never been submitted in more than two dozen pro fights. His worst-case scenario is losing on the cards, not getting finished. Raposo has lost three times, twice by decision (both splits in the UFC, to Lima and Sumudaerji) and once by submission, but that one was way back on the Contender Series in 2021, a small and old sample. The practical takeaway: neither man is fragile, but only one of them has a realistic finishing path. Since Raposo has never been submitted in the UFC, the method pick leans decision, with Nascimento's late submission as a tail possibility, not the headline play.
Skills Profile
Nascimento
vs
Raposo
Distance Striking
+2 Nascimento
Nascimento has more volume, more accuracy and five inches of reach. Neither man is a pure striker, but the Brazilian is the more dangerous one standing.
Close-Range Striking
Even
Both prefer to close distance to wrestle or clinch, not to bang. Expect very little real pocket trading here.
Knockout Power
+1 Raposo
Raposo has KOs, but all on the regional scene. Nascimento has exactly one TKO in his whole career. Power isn't what decides this one.
Striking Defense
+1 Raposo
Raposo defends 61% to the Brazilian's 52%, but he produces so little standing that his defense is rarely truly tested.
Grappling and Clinch
+2 Nascimento
Raposo lands more takedowns, but Nascimento is a finishing black belt: 16 of 22 wins by submission against zero UFC submissions for the American. Whoever owns the mat is whoever does damage on it.
Cardio (3 rounds)
Even
Both can hold a wrestling pace for three rounds. The question is Nascimento's weight cut, after a recent miss and a catchweight bout.
The profile points to a ground fight decided in the details. Raposo wins the takedown volume and the defense, Nascimento wins the finishing threat, the striking and the experience. The question isn't who owns the mat, it's who turns the mat into points and into danger. That's where the Brazilian gets the edge.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
The thesis: Allan Nascimento wins because he owns the only real finishing path in the fight (16 of 22 wins by submission and a 1.05 submission-per-15-minute average in the UFC, against Raposo's 0.00), because he has never been finished in his career (all six losses by decision, per ESPN's fight history), and because Raposo loses exactly this kind of close fight, 0-2 in the UFC, both splits to Lima and Sumudaerji, controlling in part but slipping on the details.
The thesis: Allan Nascimento wins because he owns the only real finishing path in the fight (16 of 22 wins by submission and a 1.05 submission-per-15-minute average in the UFC, against Raposo's 0.00), because he has never been finished in his career (all six losses by decision, per ESPN's fight history), and because Raposo loses exactly this kind of close fight, 0-2 in the UFC, both splits to Lima and Sumudaerji, controlling in part but slipping on the details.
The path is the Brazilian weathering the early takedown entries, using his guard and scrambles as an offensive threat, and either finishing off a transition mistake or banking striking and control for the cards. It collapses if Raposo lands repeated takedowns with clean control time, never exposing his neck, and steals the rounds the way he nearly did against Sumudaerji.
Conviction
Conviction 6, no higher, because the underdog path is concrete and has a named precedent: Nascimento's own most recent loss was a split to a control wrestler (Ulanbekov), and the Brazilian's low takedown defense (38% in the UFC) enables exactly Raposo's game. What lifts the thesis above a coin flip is specific beyond the stats: Raposo has never converted his wrestling into damage or a finish in the Octagon (the Sumudaerji loss with 19 takedown attempts and a 45-9 striking gap is the proof), and Nascimento is a finisher who has never been put away. Pure control wrestling against a black belt who attacks off his back is the kind of takedown that scores worst and risks the most.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
If Raposo lands takedowns in the first two minutes of every round and establishes clean control without exposing his neck, he steals the cards and the thesis dies on the scorecards.
- 02
If Nascimento's weight cut catches up with him (he missed weight against Filho and fought Durden at catchweight), his gas tank fades late and Raposo's pressure wrestling grows.
- 03
If Raposo finally adds damage on top (ground-and-pound that hasn't shown up in prior fights), his takedowns start convincing the judges and the read flips.
Underdog Path
Raposo comes forward pressuring, hunts the takedown early in each round to exploit Nascimento's low defense (38%), establishes top control and banks time while keeping a tight defensive posture to avoid giving up the neck. He avoids the open striking exchanges where he's outgunned, wins the rounds on control and perceived aggression, and carries the fight to a tight split in his favor, in the exact mold of the man who already beat Nascimento on the cards.
Required Conditions
- Land repeated takedowns in the first two minutes of each round
- Bank clean control time without exposing his neck to the rear-naked choke or anaconda
- Win or neutralize the striking enough not to hand over the standing rounds
- Never bite on the submission in the Brazilian's scrambles
— Precedent: Tagir Ulanbekov vs Allan Nascimento (Dec 2021): a control wrestler took him down, banked time and took the split over the Brazilian. It's the exact script Raposo needs to repeat.
Verdict
Winner
Allan Nascimento
Method
Decision
Most Likely
- 01
Winner
Allan Nascimento
The market has the right favorite, but the line bakes in little margin for a matchup that's closer than it looks. Slight edge: the Brazilian's finishing threat and durability are real, but the low takedown defense caps the stake. Don't bet heavy.
- 02
Method
Nascimento by decision
Since Raposo has never been finished in the Octagon and both men survive three rounds, the likeliest way the Brazilian wins is control and a constant threat carrying him to the cards. Better value than the straight moneyline.
- 03
Goes the distance (either fighter)
Fight goes to decision
Nascimento has lost all six of his fights by decision and Raposo is 0-2 in the UFC on the cards, always by split. Neither has been finished in the Octagon. The likeliest statistical destination is the judges' scorecards.
Most Likely Outcome
Nascimento by decision
Coherent with the thesis and the medium-high conviction. It captures the likeliest scenario (control and threat carrying to the cards) at a better return than the straight moneyline. Conviction 6 means moderate risk, not a hammer play.
Stats That Matter
NEVER
Nascimento has been finished in his career (0 KO and 0 submission across 6 losses)
All six losses came by decision. His worst case is losing on the cards, not getting put away.
0.00
Raposo's submission average per 15 minutes in the UFC
He takes you down (2.54 takedowns per 15 min) but doesn't convert: 19 attempts and six landed against Sumudaerji, with no real threat.
The Trap
Raposo by decision on takedown volume
The market pays well on Raposo as the dog, and it's tempting to bet his wrestling stealing the cards. But that's exactly what failed against Sumudaerji and Lima: takedowns with no damage may not convince the judges, and every takedown against Nascimento opens the American's neck. Betting Raposo's control ignores that he's already lost twice doing exactly that.
The market pays well on Raposo as the dog, and it's tempting to bet his wrestling stealing the cards. But that's exactly what failed against Sumudaerji and Lima: takedowns with no damage may not convince the judges, and every takedown against Nascimento opens the American's neck. Betting Raposo's control ignores that he's already lost twice doing exactly that.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Allan "Puro Osso" Nascimento vs Mitch Raposo | UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi | June 20, 2026 | Meta APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Read the whole card, free
Drop your email and unlock every fight's breakdown on the card. No payment, no password.
- Every fight on the card, full breakdown
- Scenarios and the model's call for each fight
- Access to upcoming cards too
By continuing you agree to receive Coliseum updates and to our Privacy Policy. Opt out anytime.