July 18, 2026 · Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA
Melisano
6-1-0
UnrankedHouston, USA | 29 years old
Barbosa
9-4-0
UnrankedRecife, Brazil | 33 years old
Muay Thai Against Judo
Melisano makes her UFC debut on short notice and moving up a division. Barbosa is a judo and BJJ black belt, and the only proven way to stop the American has been the rear-naked choke. The mat decides everything.
O PONTO QUE DECIDE
Dione Barbosa is the kind of grappler who turns a standing fight into a ground fight in seconds. A judo black belt, a seven-time Brazilian champion, and a BJJ black belt, she has not a single knockout in nine wins. Her game is to grab, take you down with the judo, get on top and hunt the submission, that's how she got on top of Belbita and sank an arm-triangle choke for a Performance of the Night. Across from her, Anna Melisano makes her UFC debut on short notice, moving up from strawweight to flyweight, and she brings exactly the profile Barbosa loves to meet: a pure Muay Thai striker who wants to keep it standing. The question that decides everything is Melisano's takedown defense, and the answer we have so far is worrying. The only two times she's been in real trouble ended the same way: rear-naked choke. Cheyanne Bowers submitted her on the record, and Melissa Amaya choked her out in the first round of TUF 34. Melisano is long, carries a three-inch reach edge and real power in her hands, two knockouts in her last five. If she defends the takedown and keeps the distance, her volume and reach can flip the fight. But she's never faced anyone near Barbosa's grappling level, and she does it moving up in weight, without a full camp. The mat is the chasm in this fight.
Dione Barbosa is the kind of grappler who turns a standing fight into a ground fight in seconds. A judo black belt, a seven-time Brazilian champion, and a BJJ black belt, she has not a single knockout in nine wins. Her game is to grab, take you down with the judo, get on top and hunt the submission, that's how she got on top of Belbita and sank an arm-triangle choke for a Performance of the Night. Across from her, Anna Melisano makes her UFC debut on short notice, moving up from strawweight to flyweight, and she brings exactly the profile Barbosa loves to meet: a pure Muay Thai striker who wants to keep it standing. The question that decides everything is Melisano's takedown defense, and the answer we have so far is worrying. The only two times she's been in real trouble ended the same way: rear-naked choke. Cheyanne Bowers submitted her on the record, and Melissa Amaya choked her out in the first round of TUF 34. Melisano is long, carries a three-inch reach edge and real power in her hands, two knockouts in her last five. If she defends the takedown and keeps the distance, her volume and reach can flip the fight. But she's never faced anyone near Barbosa's grappling level, and she does it moving up in weight, without a full camp. The mat is the chasm in this fight.
Tale of the Tape
Melisano is 4 years younger
Same height, an exact tie
Melisano carries a 4.5-inch reach edge, the longer frame and the advantage at range
The octagon experience is all Barbosa's
Current Form
Anna Melisano
Fury FC 112. Closed the year beating Andrea Amaro by doctor's stoppage in round 3. Kept the Muay Thai pressure and volume until the other corner had no choice.
TKO R3Fury FC 109. Flipped the script and showed a ground game: sank a rear-naked choke on Lydia Warren in round 1. A reminder she isn't only stand-up.
Sub R1Fury FC 101. Knocked out former UFC athlete Blanca Medina in round 3. The best name on her ledger and proof the heavy hands are real.
TKO R3Fury FC 96. Beat Ana Martinez on a unanimous decision after three rounds. Showed the deep-water cardio and the range control her length gives her.
Unanimous DecisionB2 Fighting Series. Her only pro loss, and the most telling one: Cheyanne Bowers controlled her on the mat and sank a rear-naked choke in round 2. The exact script Barbosa will hunt.
Sub R2Melisano rolls in hot on a five-fight win streak across the Texas regional scene (Fury FC), three of them by finish. She's a long, aggressive Muay Thai striker who punishes anyone who stands in front of her too long. The asterisk is enormous: this is a UFC debut, taken on short notice, moving up from strawweight to flyweight, against an opponent on a completely different grappling tier. And the alarm rings in the one recent moment she was truly in trouble, she got choked out with a rear-naked choke by Amaya in her TUF 34 opener. Plenty of volume and reach, ground defense as an open question.
Dione Barbosa
UFC Fight Night (Moicano vs Duncan). Beat tough Melissa Gatto on a majority decision after three rounds of grappling-heavy work. Not pretty, but control and imposition.
Majority DecisionUFC 319. Lost a unanimous decision to Karine Silva, one of the division's best grapplers. Got outdone at her own game by someone with an even more dangerous mat game.
Unanimous DecisionUFC Fight Night (Emmett vs Murphy). The high point: got on top of Diana Belbita and sank an arm-triangle choke in round 1. Performance of the Night and proof of the submission game.
Sub R1UFC Fight Night (Lemos vs Jandiroba). Lost a unanimous decision to Miranda Maverick, who denied her the mat and won the exchanges and the wrestling. The blueprint for how you beat Barbosa.
Unanimous DecisionUFC 301, Rio. UFC debut in front of the Brazilian crowd: beat Ernesta Kareckaite on a unanimous decision with ground control and pressure start to finish.
Unanimous DecisionBarbosa is the definition of hard-to-crack consistency. In the UFC she alternates: beat Kareckaite, lost to Maverick, submitted Belbita for a Performance of the Night, lost to Karine Silva, and bounced back beating Melissa Gatto on the cards in April. Not a single knockout win in her entire career, and she's never been submitted. Her game doesn't change: judo, takedown, top position, and finishing pressure. Against strikers she can drag to the mat, she dictates. Her losses came from people who managed to avoid her clinch and won at range or in the wrestling.
Level of Competition
The two have never shared an opponent, and their resumes don't compare. Barbosa has fought five times in the UFC against the flyweight division, including genuinely ranked names like Miranda Maverick and Karine Silva, and lost only to those two, at range and in the grappling. Melisano has been beating the Texas regional scene at strawweight, without a single ranked opponent, and is moving up a division to debut. It's octagon experience and elite level against a hot but untested prospect.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes por Minuto
Barbosa's numbers are from the UFC. Melisano's is a regional estimate, where she pressures with Muay Thai volume
Precisão de Strikes (%)
Barbosa is imprecise on the feet (45%) because she lives on grabbing. Melisano's value is a regional estimate
Strikes Absorvidos/Min
Barbosa absorbs little (2.40), typical of someone who controls on the mat. Melisano's is a regional estimate
Defesa de Strikes (%)
UFC data exists only for Barbosa. Melisano's is an estimate
Takedowns por 15 Min
Barbosa's central weapon: 2.40 takedowns per 15 min. Melisano almost never shoots
Precisão de Takedown (%)
Barbosa landed 10 of 24 takedowns in the UFC. Melisano's value is a tiny-sample estimate
Defesa de Takedown (%)
Melisano's takedown defense has never been tested at UFC level, the central question mark. Estimate
Submissões por 15 Min
Barbosa is a judo and BJJ black belt, 1.74 submission average. Melisano has already been choked out
Melisano leads in 1 categories · Barbosa leads in 7
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Two opposite portraits of how you win. Barbosa has not a single knockout in nine wins: it's 4 submissions and 5 decisions, the ledger of a grappler who controls and hunts the neck or grinds the cards. Melisano is the inverse in what she has on the feet, 2 knockouts and 1 submission among her 6 wins, plus 3 decisions, all regional. It matters a lot for the method: Barbosa wants the mat and the submission, Melisano wants the distance and the knockout. Whoever imposes their own path decides how the fight ends.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
This is where the most important point of the fight lives. Melisano has lost only once as a pro, and it was by rear-naked choke (Bowers), the same way Amaya stopped her on TUF. A tiny sample, one loss, but the pattern is clear and dangerous: when she's controlled on the mat, she gives up the neck. Barbosa has never been submitted and has never been knocked out in the UFC, her 4 losses came by decision (3, including Maverick and Karine Silva) and one knockout early in her career. She loses when she can't get the takedown and gets outpointed at range. Translation: Melisano has to keep it standing at all costs, and Barbosa has to get it to the mat. It's an imposition duel, and the debutant's loss profile points straight at the Brazilian's game.
Skills Profile
Melisano
vs
Barbosa
Striking em Distância
+2 Melisano
Melisano is the real striker, long, Muay Thai, with a three-inch reach edge and more volume. At range she's in charge.
Poder de Nocaute
+2 Melisano
Melisano owns the only knockouts in this matchup, 2 in her last five. Barbosa doesn't have ONE knockout in 9 career wins.
Grappling e Judô
+4 Barbosa
A chasm. Barbosa is a judo black belt (7-time Brazilian champ) and a BJJ black belt. Melisano is a striker moving up in weight who's never seen grappling this good.
Jogo de Finalização
+3 Barbosa
Barbosa hunts the neck and the back, arm-triangle on Belbita. Melisano has been choked out both times she was in real trouble.
Experiência no UFC
+3 Barbosa
Barbosa has 5 UFC fights against ranked opponents. Melisano debuts on short notice, moving up a class, against the best name she's ever faced.
Cardio e Ritmo (3 rounds)
+1 Barbosa
Both fight three-round bouts, but Barbosa has gone the full 15 minutes several times at UFC pace. Slight edge in high-level cardio.
Barbosa wins if the fight goes to the mat, and her game exists precisely to make it go there. Melisano wins if it stays standing, where her reach, volume and heavy hands rule. The question isn't who's better on each turf, that's clear. The question is who imposes their own turf, and the answer is almost always whoever controls the clinch and the takedown.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
The thesis is: Dione Barbosa wins because the grappling gap is a chasm. A judo and BJJ black belt, a seven-time Brazilian judo champion, she takes the fight to the mat and there Melisano has never been more in danger. The debutant is moving up a division on short notice, without a full camp, and she carries a clear history of vulnerability to the choke, submitted by rear-naked choke by Bowers on the record and by Amaya on TUF, the only two times she's been in real trouble. Barbosa's path is the same as always: parry the volume in the opening moments, tie up the clinch, use the judo to put her down and hunt the back or the choke. It breaks down if she can't get the takedown, because Barbosa has no knockout power (zero in nine wins) and has already been outpointed at range by people who avoided her clinch, like Maverick and Karine Silva. Melisano is longer, hits harder, and is more active on the feet. If this fight stays standing for three rounds, the math flips.
The thesis is: Dione Barbosa wins because the grappling gap is a chasm. A judo and BJJ black belt, a seven-time Brazilian judo champion, she takes the fight to the mat and there Melisano has never been more in danger. The debutant is moving up a division on short notice, without a full camp, and she carries a clear history of vulnerability to the choke, submitted by rear-naked choke by Bowers on the record and by Amaya on TUF, the only two times she's been in real trouble. Barbosa's path is the same as always: parry the volume in the opening moments, tie up the clinch, use the judo to put her down and hunt the back or the choke. It breaks down if she can't get the takedown, because Barbosa has no knockout power (zero in nine wins) and has already been outpointed at range by people who avoided her clinch, like Maverick and Karine Silva. Melisano is longer, hits harder, and is more active on the feet. If this fight stays standing for three rounds, the math flips.
Conviction
Conviction 6. This isn't a stats-plus-line read, the edge comes from a very specific style match: the only proven way to stop Melisano is the choke, and Barbosa is precisely a specialist at getting to the back and the neck. That, plus the weight jump and the short-notice debut without a full camp, is what sustains the submission method even against Barbosa's decision-leaning tendency in the UFC. What keeps the conviction at 6 and won't let it climb is that Barbosa needs the takedown for the thesis to work, and strikers who denied her the mat have already won (Maverick, Karine Silva). This isn't a market read: the books have Barbosa, but the number here comes from the grappling and from Melisano's rear-naked-choke history, not the line.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
If Melisano defends the takedowns and the fight stays standing, her reach and volume can flip everything, because Barbosa has no power to punish her at range.
- 02
Barbosa rarely finishes in the UFC (1 submission in 5 fights, the rest decisions), so the submission method carries real risk even with the right thesis.
- 03
A short-notice debut and a weight jump cut both ways, last-minute underdogs sometimes show up loose and free of the pressure of expectation.
- 04
If Melisano lands early with the heavy hands, Barbosa has never been knocked out but she absorbs at range, and a long striker is a new test.
Underdog Path
Melisano doesn't need an elaborate plan, she needs one thing: don't go to the mat. She defends the early takedown attempts, gets back up fast when she's put down, and uses the three-inch reach edge to keep Barbosa on the end of her strikes. If she hammers the Muay Thai volume and lands the heavy hands that already scored two of her last five knockouts, then Barbosa, who has never had power and absorbs at range, enters dangerous territory and can be outpointed or even stopped.
Required Conditions
- Defend the early takedowns and, when put down, stand back up fast before Barbosa fixes her control
- Keep the fight at range with the jab and the reach, away from the clinch and the judo
- Make Barbosa pay every time she tries to close the distance to grab
- Avoid long stretches of ground control, where giving up the neck has already cost her two fights
— Precedent: Maverick (July 2024) and Karine Silva (August 2025) beat Barbosa exactly this way, denying her the mat or winning the exchanges and the wrestling, both by decision. It's the recent, proven blueprint: whoever avoids the Brazilian's clinch has a real path to victory. The problem for Melisano is that she doesn't have Maverick's wrestling or Karine's grappling, only the striking.
Verdict
Winner
Dione Barbosa
Method
Submission
Most Likely
- 01
Winner
Dione Barbosa
Barbosa because the grappling gap is a chasm and she lives on dragging strikers out of the place strikers are good. Expensive, but solid. Breaks if she can't get the takedown, because she has no power to win at range.
- 02
How it ends (either fighter)
Barbosa by submission
Submission because Barbosa's game funnels everything toward the neck and Melisano has been choked both times she was truly in trouble. It's the method calibrated to how the debutant loses. Breaks if Barbosa grinds a decision the way she does in the UFC, or if she can't get it down. Method price not verified at close.
- 03
Winner (underdog)
Anna Melisano
The upset path is acknowledged and it pays: a three-inch reach edge, heavy hands, and a Barbosa who has never knocked anyone out and has already lost to people who denied her the mat. A conscious longshot, not the main read. Breaks the first moment the fight touches the ground.
Most Likely Outcome
Dione Barbosa, moderate stake
In an imposition fight, the soundest read is who imposes their own game, and Barbosa's grappling is the most reliable factor in the matchup. The submission is the most likely method and the peak of value, but her decision tendency in the UFC keeps risk on the method, so the moneyline is the cleanest way to express the edge. Moderate stake because Barbosa needs the takedown and long strikers have already outpointed her.
Stats That Matter
ZERO
Barbosa knockouts in 9 career wins. She wins by control and submission, never by power
If she can't get the takedown, she needs 15 minutes of imposition to win on the cards
2
the times Melisano has been stopped in MMA, both by rear-naked choke (Bowers on the record, Amaya on TUF)
Every time she's been controlled on the mat, she's given up the neck. That's Barbosa's game
2.40
Barbosa takedowns per 15 minutes in the UFC, with a 1.74 submission average. Melisano's ground defense has never been tested at UFC level
Judo plus BJJ against a striker moving up a weight class without a full camp
The Trap
Melisano surprises at range
The seductive corner of this fight is the underdog: Melisano is longer, younger, coming off five wins with two knockouts, and Barbosa doesn't own a single knockout in nine wins. It's easy to picture the debutant keeping it standing and hammering at range. The trap is forgetting that nobody comes close to Barbosa in grappling. A judo and BJJ black belt and seven-time Brazilian judo champion, she lives on dragging strikers out of the place strikers are good. Betting Melisano's reach ignores that Barbosa will turn this into a ground fight, and that the one proven way to stop the American is exactly the Brazilian's game.
The seductive corner of this fight is the underdog: Melisano is longer, younger, coming off five wins with two knockouts, and Barbosa doesn't own a single knockout in nine wins. It's easy to picture the debutant keeping it standing and hammering at range. The trap is forgetting that nobody comes close to Barbosa in grappling. A judo and BJJ black belt and seven-time Brazilian judo champion, she lives on dragging strikers out of the place strikers are good. Betting Melisano's reach ignores that Barbosa will turn this into a ground fight, and that the one proven way to stop the American is exactly the Brazilian's game.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Anna "Bandana" Melisano vs Dione "The Witch" Barbosa | UFC Fight Night: du Plessis vs Usman | July 18, 2026 | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA
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