July 18, 2026 · Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA
McMillen
10-0-0
UnrankedGreat Falls, Montana | 28 years old
Montes
12-1-0
UnrankedBarquisimeto, Venezuela | 32 years old
Reach Against the Neck
McMillen has five inches of height, five inches of reach, and the heavier hands. Montes has the best neck game on the card and a choke that ends fights in seconds. Whoever imposes his phase wins.
O PONTO QUE DECIDE
Range Against the Ground Scramble
This one is a collision of two certainties. Tommy McMillen arrives 10-0, with nine of his 10 wins coming inside the distance and the profile of a long, heavy, aggressive striker: six feet tall, a 74-inch reach, daily work at Red Hawk Academy alongside Sean O'Malley and Tim Welch. He flattened Manolo Zecchini in the first round of his UFC debut and rarely needs to see round two. Across from him is Alberto Montes, the underdog who knows exactly where this fight can be won: at the neck. Seven of his 12 wins came by submission, almost all of them by front choke — anaconda and D'Arce — and the latest was an anaconda choke on former TUF winner Ricky Turcios at UFC 326. The deciding factor is the phase of the fight. If McMillen keeps it at range, punishes with the jab and the cross, and uses his five-inch reach edge to hold the Venezuelan off, he wins clearly, maybe early, because Montes has already been knocked out when a fight stayed standing — his lone career loss, a TKO at bantamweight. But Montes doesn't need 15 minutes, he needs a scramble. If he closes the distance, ties up in the clinch, and forces the grappling exchange, his neck game finishes in seconds. The honest caveat is that both men are near-newcomers, each with a single UFC fight, so the sample is thin and the read is worth what it's worth. Even so, McMillen's length and power tend to dictate where the fight happens.
This one is a collision of two certainties. Tommy McMillen arrives 10-0, with nine of his 10 wins coming inside the distance and the profile of a long, heavy, aggressive striker: six feet tall, a 74-inch reach, daily work at Red Hawk Academy alongside Sean O'Malley and Tim Welch. He flattened Manolo Zecchini in the first round of his UFC debut and rarely needs to see round two. Across from him is Alberto Montes, the underdog who knows exactly where this fight can be won: at the neck. Seven of his 12 wins came by submission, almost all of them by front choke — anaconda and D'Arce — and the latest was an anaconda choke on former TUF winner Ricky Turcios at UFC 326. The deciding factor is the phase of the fight. If McMillen keeps it at range, punishes with the jab and the cross, and uses his five-inch reach edge to hold the Venezuelan off, he wins clearly, maybe early, because Montes has already been knocked out when a fight stayed standing — his lone career loss, a TKO at bantamweight. But Montes doesn't need 15 minutes, he needs a scramble. If he closes the distance, ties up in the clinch, and forces the grappling exchange, his neck game finishes in seconds. The honest caveat is that both men are near-newcomers, each with a single UFC fight, so the sample is thin and the read is worth what it's worth. Even so, McMillen's length and power tend to dictate where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Montes is 4 years older and has more years of mileage as a pro
McMillen is far taller, a 5-inch edge
McMillen carries a 5-inch reach edge, he's the much bigger man
Both men live on finishes. McMillen almost always in round one, Montes with the front choke
Current Form
Tommy McMillen
UFC Vegas 115. UFC debut. Dominated and flattened Manolo Zecchini in the first round with heavy striking top to bottom. A perfect entrance to the promotion.
TKO R1Dana White's Contender Series. Beat undefeated David Mgoyan by majority decision to earn his UFC contract. The only fight of his career that went past round one and reached the cards.
Majority DecisionRegional circuit. Submitted Dumar Roa with a rear-naked choke in the first round. Another short night.
Submission R1Regional circuit. First-round guillotine over Genier Penagos. His front-choke game is an important detail for this fight.
Submission R1Regional circuit. Another first-round guillotine, this time over Joshua Wright. McMillen punishes anyone who shoots in a panic.
Submission R1Undefeated and finishing. McMillen is 10-0, with eight of his 10 wins in the first round, and he debuted in the UFC by flattening Manolo Zecchini in round one. Before that he earned his contract by beating undefeated David Mgoyan in the only fight of his career to reach a decision. It's a record built on the regional circuit and the Contender Series, so the level test is still coming, but the momentum is spotless: he's never lost and has rarely seen the second round.
Alberto Montes
UFC 326. UFC debut. Submitted former TUF winner Ricky Turcios with an anaconda choke early in the second round. Proof the neck game works at the UFC level.
Submission R2Dana White's Contender Series. Choked out Carlos Calderon with an anaconda in round two to earn his UFC contract. Another front-choke finish.
Submission R2Regional circuit. D'Arce choke in the second round over Kevin Garcia. The pattern repeats: tie up in the clinch, hunt the neck, finish.
Submission R2Regional circuit. Another D'Arce, this time in the first round over Adam Ortiz. The front choke is the signature of his career.
Submission R1The only loss of his career. Dropping to bantamweight, he was knocked out by Ira Lukowsky in round two. The warning about what happens when the fight stays standing against heavy hands.
TKO R2Four straight wins, all by submission. Montes comes off a dream UFC debut at UFC 326, an anaconda choke on former TUF winner Ricky Turcios early in round two. Before that he earned his contract by choking out Carlos Calderon on the Contender Series. The Venezuelan is 12-1 for his career, and the lone loss — a TKO at bantamweight in 2021 — is the warning: when the fight stays standing against someone who hits hard, he's already proven vulnerable. His game is to drag it down and hunt the neck.
Level of Competition
Here the caveat cuts both ways: these are two newcomers with almost no UFC-level track record. Each has a single fight in the promotion, McMillen over Zecchini and Montes over Turcios, and neither man has ever faced a ranked opponent. The rest of both resumes was built on the regional circuit and the Contender Series. There are no common opponents. The slight qualitative edge on paper goes to Montes, who submitted a former TUF winner in his debut and has more years as a pro, but both samples are far too short to call a level gap. This is a fight between two prospects still proving themselves.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes por Minuto
One UFC fight each, so the sample is minimal. McMillen poured on volume in his debut
Precisao de Strikes (%)
Montes lands cleaner, but with far less volume and a tiny sample
Strikes Absorvidos/Min
Both absorb plenty. In a firefight, someone is going to feel it
Defesa de Strikes (%)
Takedowns por 15 Min
Neither man attempted a takedown in the UFC. McMillen wants it standing, Montes prefers the clinch and the scramble to a pure shot
Defesa de Takedown (%)
McMillen defends takedowns better on paper, which complicates Montes' grappling plan
Submissoes por 15 Min
This is where Montes' danger lives. The number is inflated by one quick finish in his debut, but the neck game is real
McMillen leads in 2 categories · Montes leads in 4
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Both men live on finishes, but by opposite paths. McMillen is the complete finisher: 4 KOs and 5 submissions in 10 wins, with a single decision in his entire career, and most come in round one. He punishes both standing and on the mat, and his guillotine game matters a lot here. Montes is the neck specialist: 7 submissions in 12 wins, almost all by front choke, with 4 old decisions and just one KO in his career. The read for the method is direct: McMillen ends fights every way, Montes ends them one way, at the neck.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Small samples on both sides, so be careful with big conclusions. McMillen is 10-0 and has never lost, so there's no loss profile to read, which is both a strength and an unknown: he's never had to recover from a bad night. Montes has a single career loss, and it's telling: a TKO at bantamweight in 2021, when the fight stayed standing against someone who hits hard. That one data point is the map of this fight. If McMillen keeps it standing, he attacks exactly the Venezuelan's documented vulnerability. If Montes gets to the neck, the script becomes his.
Skills Profile
McMillen
vs
Montes
Striking em Distancia
+2 McMillen
McMillen has a five-inch reach edge, high volume, and knows how to use the distance. Montes has to close the gap to exist in the fight.
Poder de Nocaute
+3 McMillen
McMillen hits much harder. Four KOs, a knockdown in his debut, and Montes has already been knocked out when he stayed standing against heavy hands.
Jogo de Finalizacao
+2 Montes
Montes is the most dangerous neck hunter on the card, seven submissions, anaconda and D'Arce. But McMillen also lives on the guillotine, which neutralizes part of the entries.
Wrestling e Clinch
+1 Montes
Neither man is a pure wrestler. Montes plays better in the clinch and the scramble hunting the neck, McMillen has the higher takedown defense.
Cardio e Aguas Profundas
+1 McMillen
Unknown territory for both. McMillen has a recent three-round decision, Montes almost always ends it early. Slight edge to the American.
Experiencia e Manha
+1 Montes
Montes has more pro years and submitted a former TUF winner in his debut. McMillen trains at an elite camp, but his resume is greener.
McMillen wins standing: reach, power, and volume, with the takedown defense to keep the fight where he wants it. Montes wins if he turns it into a grappling scrap and reaches the neck, the ground where he finishes in seconds. The question isn't who's more skilled in his preferred phase. The question is who imposes his phase, and McMillen's size dictates more of where the fight happens.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
The thesis is: Tommy McMillen wins because he dictates where the fight happens. He has a five-inch height and five-inch reach edge, hits much harder, trains at an elite camp, and has the higher takedown defense on paper, which complicates Montes' grappling plan. And the detail that ties it all together: McMillen isn't the naive striker who drowns in a scramble, he lives on the guillotine himself, so the clinch and ground entries the Venezuelan needs to make are where the American also finishes. Montes' only loss came standing, by TKO, against heavy hands, and McMillen's power aims right at that documented vulnerability.
The thesis is: Tommy McMillen wins because he dictates where the fight happens. He has a five-inch height and five-inch reach edge, hits much harder, trains at an elite camp, and has the higher takedown defense on paper, which complicates Montes' grappling plan. And the detail that ties it all together: McMillen isn't the naive striker who drowns in a scramble, he lives on the guillotine himself, so the clinch and ground entries the Venezuelan needs to make are where the American also finishes. Montes' only loss came standing, by TKO, against heavy hands, and McMillen's power aims right at that documented vulnerability.
The path is McMillen keeping distance, punishing with the jab and the cross, and either ending it early or controlling range to the cards. The thesis breaks down if Montes can close clean, tie up in the clinch and reach the neck, because then his choke ends it in seconds, the way it ended Turcios in his debut.
Conviction
Conviction 5, no higher, because the UFC sample on both men is minimal, one fight each, and the read leans on style, physicals and the loss profile, not a long history at comparable level. What holds the lean on McMillen is concrete: a big height and reach advantage, much higher knockout power, and Montes' only loss came exactly on the feet, by TKO, against heavy hands. Add that McMillen is himself a front-choke finisher, which takes away from Montes the classic victim he usually hunts in a scramble. But the underdog path is real, recent and documented: he just submitted a former TUF winner and finishes in seconds when he reaches the neck. This isn't a market read, the line is essentially split, with the open even favoring Montes. The edge comes from the physicals and the style matchup, not the line.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
If Montes closes the distance and reaches the neck early, his anaconda choke or D'Arce ends it in seconds, the way it ended Turcios, and McMillen's physical edge doesn't matter.
- 02
If McMillen overcommits on the mat or accepts the scramble instead of keeping it standing, he steps into the one phase where the Venezuelan is superior.
- 03
The UFC sample on both men is a single fight each, so any style read carries real uncertainty, and a newcomer can surprise.
- 04
If McMillen's green resume hides a hole the regional level never tested, the jump in quality against a real finisher could expose it.
Underdog Path
Montes doesn't need to win 15 minutes, he needs a scramble. He absorbs the early strikes, closes the distance, ties up in the clinch or forces the grappling exchange, and locks the anaconda or the D'Arce while McMillen tries to trade or scrambles up in a panic. It's the script of his whole career: get to the neck and finish early. If the American overcommits on the mat or drops his guard in a short exchange, the night ends with the Venezuelan on top.
Required Conditions
- Survive McMillen's reach and power in the early minutes without getting caught standing
- Close the distance and tie up in the clinch, pulling the fight out of the long-range striking phase
- Force a scramble or a ground transition and lock the front choke before McMillen settles
- Don't be the reckless one who drops his guard in a short exchange, the mistake that cost him the knockout against Lukowsky
— Precedent: Montes vs Turcios (UFC 326, March 2026): choked out a former TUF winner with an anaconda choke early in round two, proof the neck game works at the UFC level. The pattern has repeated for four straight fights, all by submission. Against a striker who overcommits, the path is concrete and recent.
Verdict
Winner
Tommy McMillen
Method
Knockout
Most Likely
- 01
Winner
Tommy McMillen
McMillen because he dictates where the fight happens: a five-inch reach edge, much higher power, better takedown defense, and Montes' only loss came standing against heavy hands. The market is split, so it's a moderate stake. Breaks if the Venezuelan closes and reaches the neck early.
- 02
Method (favorite)
McMillen by KO/TKO
Method aligned with Montes' loss profile, whose only defeat was a TKO on the feet. McMillen finishes 8 of 10 in round one and hits hard. Odds approximate, method markets for a prelim tend to be thin. Breaks if the fight turns into a grappling scrap.
- 03
Method (underdog)
Montes by submission
The cleanest path to the upset and it has to be acknowledged: seven front-choke submissions, an anaconda choke on Turcios in his debut. Odds approximate. It's a conscious longshot, not the main read. Breaks if McMillen keeps the fight standing.
Most Likely Outcome
Tommy McMillen, moderate stake
In a conviction-5 fight between newcomers, the soundest read is the winner, on the physical and power edge plus Montes' loss profile. Moderate stake because the Venezuelan's neck game keeps the submission risk alive the whole way, and the UFC sample on both is minimal.
Stats That Matter
9
of McMillen's 10 wins came by finish before the final bell. Only 1 reached a decision in his entire career
He rarely needs the cards, and 8 of them ended in round one
7
career submissions for Montes, almost all by front choke (anaconda, D'Arce)
The neck game is real and finishes in seconds, that's how he got Turcios in the UFC
1
Montes' only career loss, a TKO when the fight stayed standing against heavy hands
The map of the fight: on the feet, he's vulnerable, and McMillen's power aims right there
The Trap
Montes by submission on autopilot
The lazy read is to look at the neck specialist against a striker and assume the D'Arce is coming. The trap is that McMillen isn't the classic victim of that story. He's five inches taller, hits much harder, has the higher takedown defense on paper and, above all, is himself a front-choke finisher with several guillotines on his record. The clinch and scramble entries Montes needs to exist are exactly the positions where the American punishes. Betting Montes by submission pays well, but it ignores that he first has to survive the reach and the power, and that the one time his fight stayed standing against heavy hands, he got knocked out.
The lazy read is to look at the neck specialist against a striker and assume the D'Arce is coming. The trap is that McMillen isn't the classic victim of that story. He's five inches taller, hits much harder, has the higher takedown defense on paper and, above all, is himself a front-choke finisher with several guillotines on his record. The clinch and scramble entries Montes needs to exist are exactly the positions where the American punishes. Betting Montes by submission pays well, but it ignores that he first has to survive the reach and the power, and that the one time his fight stayed standing against heavy hands, he got knocked out.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Tommy "Gun" McMillen vs Alberto "The Promise" Montes | UFC Fight Night: du Plessis vs. Usman | July 18, 2026 | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA
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