October 3, 2026 · Delta Center, Salt Lake City, United States
McGhee
11-2-0
#15 BantamweightDetroit, USA | 36 years old
Sopaj
13-3-0
UnrankedAlbania (based in Stockholm) | 26 years old
Range Against the Mat
94% of the significant strikes McGhee lands in the UFC come on the feet, and he has a three-inch reach edge. Sopaj has four career submissions, and 39% of his UFC strikes came on the ground. Where this fight happens matters, but it doesn't settle it on its own.
Conviction
Conviction 5 because both paths are concrete. McGhee's rests on reach, volume and takedown defense, with six UFC fights as the sample. Sopaj's rests on takedowns, top position and the choke, with six takedowns across three Octagon appearances. UFCStats was unreachable: Sopaj's takedowns were rebuilt fight by fight from a secondary provider and fight reports, his accuracy is still disputed and the number of takedown attempts McGhee has faced isn't published, so the key interaction has no direct measurement. This is a sporting read, made without odds.
Conviction 5 because both paths are concrete. McGhee's rests on reach, volume and takedown defense, with six UFC fights as the sample. Sopaj's rests on takedowns, top position and the choke, with six takedowns across three Octagon appearances. UFCStats was unreachable: Sopaj's takedowns were rebuilt fight by fight from a secondary provider and fight reports, his accuracy is still disputed and the number of takedown attempts McGhee has faced isn't published, so the key interaction has no direct measurement. This is a sporting read, made without odds.
THE DECIDING FACTOR
Can Sopaj Get It to the Mat?
On the feet, McGhee has the tools. He's two inches taller, has three more inches of reach and does almost all of his work on the feet: 94% of the significant strikes he's landed in the UFC came standing. Against Yannis he owned the center with feints and kicks and chose distance in the final round. Against Yan he lost a close one, but he ate heavy shots and stuffed the takedowns in the clinch. Sopaj has more than one way in. He can hurt you standing: head kicks early against Turcios, a body shot that hurt Turcios in round 3 and the left hand that dropped Cuamba in round 2 and kicked off the finishing sequence. That's seven career knockouts and 0.81 knockdowns per 15 minutes in the UFC. On the mat, he won round 1 against Oliveira from top position, took Turcios down in round 2 and finished Cuamba with a rear-naked choke. He's landed six takedowns in three UFC fights, 2.43 per 15 minutes, and McGhee stops 90%, though UFC.com doesn't publish how many attempts he's faced. So the question is whether the Albanian can hurt him on the feet or create an entry to the mat like he did against Cuamba, or whether he spends 15 minutes trying to reach a longer opponent. If it stays standing, McGhee's volume should carry the cards. If it hits the mat, Sopaj does more work from top, but the ground isn't one-way traffic: McGhee choked out Newson in the UFC and was choked out in LFA back in 2022.
On the feet, McGhee has the tools. He's two inches taller, has three more inches of reach and does almost all of his work on the feet: 94% of the significant strikes he's landed in the UFC came standing. Against Yannis he owned the center with feints and kicks and chose distance in the final round. Against Yan he lost a close one, but he ate heavy shots and stuffed the takedowns in the clinch. Sopaj has more than one way in. He can hurt you standing: head kicks early against Turcios, a body shot that hurt Turcios in round 3 and the left hand that dropped Cuamba in round 2 and kicked off the finishing sequence. That's seven career knockouts and 0.81 knockdowns per 15 minutes in the UFC. On the mat, he won round 1 against Oliveira from top position, took Turcios down in round 2 and finished Cuamba with a rear-naked choke. He's landed six takedowns in three UFC fights, 2.43 per 15 minutes, and McGhee stops 90%, though UFC.com doesn't publish how many attempts he's faced. So the question is whether the Albanian can hurt him on the feet or create an entry to the mat like he did against Cuamba, or whether he spends 15 minutes trying to reach a longer opponent. If it stays standing, McGhee's volume should carry the cards. If it hits the mat, Sopaj does more work from top, but the ground isn't one-way traffic: McGhee choked out Newson in the UFC and was choked out in LFA back in 2022.
Truth A
Sopaj has four career submissions, looked for the mat in all three of his UFC fights and choked out Cuamba right after a knockdown. McGhee has lost by rear-naked choke before, and his wrestling offense is a blind spot in the data.
Truth B
McGhee is taller, longer, lands 94% of his significant strikes on the feet, stops 90% of takedowns and has a UFC submission of his own, a rear-naked choke on Newson. He's never been stopped by strikes, not even by Yan. Sopaj's only knockout loss came in round 3 of his UFC debut, taken on five days' notice, after Oliveira dominated the round with right hands and kicks.
Tale of the Tape
UFC.com still shows Sopaj at 25, but he was born September 25, 2000
Stance confirmed only by a secondary source
Current Form
Marcus McGhee
UFC Vegas 118. Feints, spinning kicks and a counter right that wobbled Yannis late in round 2. He chose range in round 3 and stayed out of long exchanges.
Unanimous DecisionUFC Abu Dhabi co-main. Yan walked him down in round 1, hurt him with right hands in round 2 and went for takedowns out of the clinch in round 3. McGhee stuffed them and dropped a 29-28 decision on all three cards.
Unanimous DecisionUFC 309. Banked two rounds with the jab and combinations, then Martinez went to work on his leg late in round 2 and all through round 3. Won 29-28 on all three cards on one good leg.
Unanimous DecisionStopped Bolanos with a spinning wheel kick at 3:29 of round 3.
TKO R3Knocked out Buys with one punch at 2:19 of round 1.
KO R1Got back in the win column in June with a unanimous decision over John Yannis (30-27, 30-27, 29-28). He owned the center with feints, wobbled Yannis with a counter right late in round 2 and managed distance in round 3. His only UFC loss came against Petr Yan in July 2025, 29-28 on all three cards. He's 5-1 in the Octagon and gets 119 days of rest before this one.
Benardo Sopaj
UFC Vegas 117. Lost the striking in round 1 and went for a takedown and a sub late in the round. In round 2 he dropped Cuamba with a left, followed up with strikes and finished with a rear-naked choke.
Sub R2UFC 311. Head kicks early, ground work in round 2, knees in the clinch and a body shot that hurt Turcios in round 3. 30-27, 30-27, 29-28.
Unanimous DecisionUFC debut on five days' notice. Won round 1 from top position with ground strikes, lost round 2 and got flatlined by a flying knee at 4:41 of round 3.
KO R3Allstars Fight Night in Solna. Dropped Vargas, took top position and stopped him in round 1 for the vacant bantamweight title.
TKO R1Two straight wins. In May he choked out Timmy Cuamba at 2:25 of round 2 after losing the striking in round 1 and dropping Cuamba with a left in the second. Before that he took a unanimous decision off Ricky Turcios in January 2025, getting the fight to the mat in round 2 and hurting Turcios with a body shot in round 3. He sat out 16 months between those two fights. He'll have 140 days of rest by fight night.
Level of Competition
No common opponents. McGhee has six UFC fights, with Petr Yan and Jonathan Martinez as his toughest tests. Sopaj has three, and the first one came on five days' notice. Before the UFC his record runs through WFCA, AK FC, Brave, FCR and Allstars Fight Night, with titles in the last two. The levels aren't far apart, but Sopaj's Octagon sample is too small to say much.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes Landed per Min
McGhee: rate rebuilt fight by fight, 342 strikes over 67:51 of cage time. UFC.com shows 5.44 because it credits him with only 62:54, a total that doesn't square with the length of his six fights. Sopaj: UFC.com, and part of his volume comes on the ground
Sig. Strikes Absorbed per Min
McGhee rebuilt over 67:51 of cage time (UFC.com shows 3.64 over 62:54). Sopaj: UFC.com, just three fights and 37:06 of cage time, including the five-day-notice debut and the ground-and-pound he ate from the bottom against Oliveira. Different opposition, so it's not a chin measure or a direct comparison
Striking Accuracy (%)
Sample size: McGhee: 784 · Sopaj: 281
Overall UFC accuracy, ground strikes included: 342 of 784 for McGhee (94% of his landed strikes standing), 163 of 281 for Sopaj (39% of his landed strikes on the ground). Not a measure of accuracy at range
Striking Defense (%)
Ground Strikes (% of Total)
Sample size: McGhee: 342 · Sopaj: 163
Share of landed significant strikes thrown on the ground
Takedowns Landed per 15 Min
McGhee: UFC.com shows conflicting figures (0.24 average and 0% accuracy), and UFCStats was unreachable
Sopaj: six takedowns in 37 UFC minutes, rebuilt fight by fight (3 vs Oliveira, 2 vs Turcios, 1 vs Cuamba). Accuracy is left out: UFC.com shows 3 of 10, which doesn't square with the average on the same page
Takedown Defense (%)
UFC.com doesn't publish how many attempts he faced
Submission Attempts per 15 Min
McGhee: one attempt in 67:51 of cage time (UFC.com shows 0.24 over 62:54)
Knockdowns per 15 Min
McGhee: three knockdowns in 67:51 of cage time (UFC.com shows 0.72 over 62:54)
McGhee leads in 4 categories · Sopaj leads in 4
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
McGhee is a knockout guy: eight of his 11 wins came by strikes. But his last three UFC fights all went to the cards. Sopaj is more varied, with seven knockouts and four submissions, and his last win showed both in one sequence: drop him with the left, finish with the choke.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
McGhee has never been stopped by strikes. One loss came by decision to Yan, the other by rear-naked choke in round 1 against Rafael do Nascimento in LFA back in 2022. Sopaj has never been submitted. He dropped two decisions, in 2018 and 2021, and got knocked out by Oliveira in his UFC debut. None of that proves anybody is immune. It tells you the submission route against McGhee has worked once, outside the UFC, and that Sopaj has been stopped in round 3 of a debut he took on five days' notice.
Skills Profile
McGhee
vs
Sopaj
Range Striking
+2 McGhee
McGhee lands about five significant strikes per minute in the UFC (5.04, rebuilt over 67:51 of cage time), 94% of them on the feet, and has a three-inch reach edge. Against Yannis he ran the center with feints and kicks. Cageside Press's 2024 scouting report on Sopaj, written before his first UFC fight, said he at times struggles against taller opponents. That's a pre-UFC scouting opinion, not a measurement.
Wrestling & Top Game
+2 Sopaj
Sopaj has landed six takedowns in three UFC fights (2.43 per 15 minutes), 39% of his strikes came on the ground and he has four career submissions. His accuracy is disputed: UFC.com shows 3 of 10, which doesn't match the fight-by-fight count. McGhee's takedown offense is an unknown: the UFC.com numbers contradict each other.
Takedown Defense
+1 McGhee
McGhee shows 90% takedown defense and stuffed Yan's takedown attempts out of the clinch in round 3. UFC.com doesn't publish how many attempts he's faced, so the sample is uncertain.
Knockout Power
Even
Eight knockouts for McGhee, seven for Sopaj. Both can drop you: 0.66 versus 0.81 knockdowns per 15 minutes in the UFC (three knockdowns for McGhee in 67:51 of cage time).
Chin & Durability
+1 McGhee
McGhee has never been stopped by strikes in 13 pro fights and ate Yan's right hands. Sopaj has been knocked out once in 16 fights, by Oliveira in round 3 of a UFC debut he took on five days' notice. That's not enough to call his chin a problem, so the edge is slim.
This one comes down to real estate. On the feet, McGhee is taller, longer, landed 94% of his UFC significant strikes standing and has already traded with a former champion. On the mat, Sopaj does more work from top: six takedowns and 39% of his UFC strikes came down there, plus the choke on Cuamba. But McGhee is no stranger to the ground: he choked out Newson in the UFC in 2023 and lost by rear-naked choke in LFA in 2022. The question is whether the Albanian can get it there against a guy who stops 90% of takedowns, and who has the edge if it does hit the mat.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
Conviction5/10The thesis is: Marcus McGhee wins because he has the reach and height edge and does nearly all of his work on the feet: 321 of the 342 significant strikes he's landed in the UFC (94%) came standing, against 83 of 163 (51%) for Sopaj. Those shares show where each man does his work, not who's busier on the feet, since Sopaj has spent real time on the mat and they've faced different opponents. He also wins because he stops 90% of takedowns, which makes it hard for Sopaj to reach the mat, where the Albanian is most dangerous.
The thesis is: Marcus McGhee wins because he has the reach and height edge and does nearly all of his work on the feet: 321 of the 342 significant strikes he's landed in the UFC (94%) came standing, against 83 of 163 (51%) for Sopaj. Those shares show where each man does his work, not who's busier on the feet, since Sopaj has spent real time on the mat and they've faced different opponents. He also wins because he stops 90% of takedowns, which makes it hard for Sopaj to reach the mat, where the Albanian is most dangerous.
The path is running the center with feints and kicks like he did against Yannis and banking rounds. It falls apart if Sopaj lands early takedowns, or drops McGhee with the left and gets to the back the way he did against Cuamba.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
If Sopaj chains takedowns and spends long stretches of rounds on top, those rounds swing his way and McGhee's range edge counts for less on the cards. One takedown on its own won't do it: he won round 1 from top against Oliveira and still lost the fight.
- 02
If McGhee gets his leg chewed up again, like against Martinez, he loses the movement his game plan runs on.
- 03
If Sopaj lands the left that dropped Cuamba, the road to the back opens up.
- 04
If McGhee loses the exchanges at range to Sopaj's power, the reach edge stops carrying the game plan.
Underdog Path
Sopaj survives the opening minutes without standing in front of the jab, closes the distance and mixes his hands with takedown attempts. Off a takedown or a knockdown he gets on top, piles up ground strikes and hunts the back. McGhee has been choked out before, in round 1 of a regional LFA fight back in 2022.
Required Conditions
- Close the distance without eating too much volume on the way in
- Complete takedowns against a guy who stops 90% of them
- Turn top position into damage or a back take
- Keep producing for all three rounds: he hurt Turcios with a body shot in round 3 and won 30-27 on two cards; the round-3 loss to Oliveira came in a debut on five days' notice
— Precedent: Sopaj vs Cuamba (UFC Vegas 117, May 2026): the Albanian lost the striking in round 1, dropped Cuamba with a left in round 2 and closed it with a rear-naked choke. It shows the mechanism, not a direct transfer to this matchup.
Verdict
Winner
Marcus McGhee
Method
Decision
Most likely winner
Marcus McGhee wins
McGhee has the reach, does nearly all of his work on the feet and has the takedown defense to keep this fight where he wants it. The uncertainty is real: Sopaj has a top game and a rear-naked choke, McGhee has been submitted before, and there's no direct measure of how many takedowns he's actually stopped. That's why the edge is moderate.
Stats That Matter
94%
of McGhee's UFC significant strikes landed on the feet
He wants this fight at range, where he has a three-inch reach edge
2.43
takedowns landed per 15 minutes by Sopaj in the UFC
Six in three fights, against McGhee's 90% takedown defense
ZERO
losses by strikes for McGhee in 13 pro fights
But his only pre-UFC loss came by rear-naked choke
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Marcus "The Maniac" McGhee vs Benardo "The Lion King" Sopaj | UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang | October 3, 2026 | Delta Center, Salt Lake City, United States
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