October 3, 2026 · Delta Center, Salt Lake City, United States
McGee
22-14-0
UnrankedUtah, USA | 41 years old
Nolan
8-5-0
UnrankedEdison, New Jersey, USA | 29 years old
The Crusher's Last Ride
McGee says goodbye at home after 24 UFC fights. Nolan shows up 0-2 in the Octagon, beaten by two unbeaten prospects, with four punch knockouts, all of them on the regional scene.
Conviction
Conviction sits at 3 because the gap is thin and both cases have holes. Nolan's side rests on one pillar: McGee's two first-round punch knockouts in 2022 and 2023, followed by three fights without being stopped. The volume loss to Chiesa doesn't count toward it, because it says nothing about Nolan's tool. Nolan built his power résumé against regional opposition and has shown one impact moment in 22 UFC minutes. McGee's side leans on 24 UFC fights and a concrete route to the back, but his wrestling completes few takedowns and his stand-up output has dropped. McGee's age and layoff stay on the ledger as two-way uncertainty, with no dated evidence of physical decline. The 50% is an uncalibrated editorial estimate, not a conversion of the conviction score.
Conviction sits at 3 because the gap is thin and both cases have holes. Nolan's side rests on one pillar: McGee's two first-round punch knockouts in 2022 and 2023, followed by three fights without being stopped. The volume loss to Chiesa doesn't count toward it, because it says nothing about Nolan's tool. Nolan built his power résumé against regional opposition and has shown one impact moment in 22 UFC minutes. McGee's side leans on 24 UFC fights and a concrete route to the back, but his wrestling completes few takedowns and his stand-up output has dropped. McGee's age and layoff stay on the ledger as two-way uncertainty, with no dated evidence of physical decline. The 50% is an uncalibrated editorial estimate, not a conversion of the conviction score.
THE DECIDING FACTOR
Power vs. Position
McGee's last two knockout losses both came in round one, both by punches, against Jeremiah Wells in 2022 and Matt Brown in 2023. He's gone three fights without being stopped since. He lost two of them on the cards, and Chiesa outlanded him 72-39 in significant strikes, but that was a volume loss, not a power one. Nolan tests a different question: not a volume guy, an isolated-shot puncher, per Cageside Press's scouting report. Three of his last four regional wins were punch knockouts, and in the UFC he rocked Susurkaev a division up. The other side is just as concrete. Nolan has a documented opening on his back: at UFC 319 he ended up on his back in a scramble and Susurkaev sank the rear-naked choke. His other RNC loss, to Richards in 2023, has no recorded description of how it happened. And Cageside Press's debut scouting report already flagged his submission defense off his back. McGee doesn't finish many takedowns (23 of 145 in the UFC, 16%), but he knows the route. Against Means in 2024, the combination opened the takedown, the takedown opened the back and the back ended the fight. The question is who imposes his position first.
McGee's last two knockout losses both came in round one, both by punches, against Jeremiah Wells in 2022 and Matt Brown in 2023. He's gone three fights without being stopped since. He lost two of them on the cards, and Chiesa outlanded him 72-39 in significant strikes, but that was a volume loss, not a power one. Nolan tests a different question: not a volume guy, an isolated-shot puncher, per Cageside Press's scouting report. Three of his last four regional wins were punch knockouts, and in the UFC he rocked Susurkaev a division up. The other side is just as concrete. Nolan has a documented opening on his back: at UFC 319 he ended up on his back in a scramble and Susurkaev sank the rear-naked choke. His other RNC loss, to Richards in 2023, has no recorded description of how it happened. And Cageside Press's debut scouting report already flagged his submission defense off his back. McGee doesn't finish many takedowns (23 of 145 in the UFC, 16%), but he knows the route. Against Means in 2024, the combination opened the takedown, the takedown opened the back and the back ended the fight. The question is who imposes his position first.
Truth A
McGee has 24 UFC fights, has won rounds against veterans and finished Means from the back in 2024. Nolan dropped all three rounds on the cards against Hasanov and has tapped to the RNC in two of his five losses.
Truth B
McGee is 41, has been out nearly 16 months and was stopped in round one in two of his last five. Nolan is 12 years younger, fighting at his natural weight, and already proved in the UFC that his overhand can rock a middleweight.
Tale of the Tape
Nolan is 12 years younger
McGee has about 1.5 inches more reach despite being three inches shorter
Sources disagree on both fighters' teams
Current Form
Court McGee
UFC Atlanta. Lost 30-27, 30-27, 29-28. Chiesa never landed a takedown but won the kickboxing match, 72-39 in significant strikes, and cut McGee in round one. McGee went 0-for-6 on takedowns.
Unanimous DecisionUFC 307, at home. Closed the distance behind a combination, got the takedown, climbed to the back along the fence and sank the RNC with both hooks in. His first UFC finish since 2010.
Sub R1Lost 29-28 on all three cards. Traded with Morono's jab on the feet and shot for takedowns in rounds two and three, hitting just one of six, as the final bell sounded. Survived a deep guillotine in round two. Landed 60 significant strikes.
Unanimous DecisionPunch knockout at 4:09 of round one. His second straight knockout loss.
KO R1Punch knockout at 1:34 of round one. Before that night, he'd been stopped by strikes only once, back in 2016.
KO R1McGee is 1-4 over his last five. He got knocked out in the first round in back-to-back fights against Jeremiah Wells (2022) and Matt Brown (2023), then dropped decisions to Alex Morono and Michael Chiesa. The bright spot in between was his best night in years: a rear-naked choke on Tim Means at 3:19 of round one, in Salt Lake City. He hasn't fought since June 2025, nearly 16 months. In August he announced this is the last fight of his career. He had neck surgery before re-signing, and in 2024 said he was training better after it. There's no dated report on this camp, so the layoff counts as uncertainty, not a diagnosis.
Eric Nolan
UFC Baku. 30-27 on all three cards. Hasanov went 17-for-27 on takedowns, nine of them in round one, a single-round welterweight record. Nolan kept getting back up but never found the space to fire.
Unanimous DecisionUFC 319, short-notice debut at middleweight. Wobbled Susurkaev with an overhand late in round one, but the leg kicks slowed him down, he ended up on his back in a scramble and gave up the RNC at 2:01 of round two.
Sub R2CFFC 142. Rematch: avenged his 2023 RNC loss with a punch knockout at 3:06 of round one.
KO R1CFFC 138. Punch knockout at 1:17 of round two.
KO R2CFFC 137. Punch knockout at 3:06 of round one.
KO R1Nolan is 0-2 in the UFC, but both losses came against unbeaten fighters. In his short-notice debut, up at middleweight, he rocked Baisangur Susurkaev with an overhand late in round one before getting choked out in round two. Back at welterweight, Farman Hasanov took him down 17 times, and he spent much of the fight working back to his feet. Before the UFC he won four straight in CFFC, three by knockout, and held the promotion's welterweight title. His last fight was 14 weeks ago. The bout was announced in mid-August, with no replacement reported.
Level of Competition
No common opponents. McGee spent 16 years in the UFC, with names like Robert Whittaker, whom he beat by split decision in 2013, and Chiesa and Morono recently. Nolan built nearly his whole record in CFFC, and Cageside Press's debut profile called him a strong regional-level fighter but not yet a UFC-level talent. In the UFC, he drew two unbeaten prospects: Hasanov, who landed 17 takedowns, and Susurkaev, in a short-notice middleweight debut, who outlanded him 36-22 in significant strikes and finished him after taking his back in a scramble. McGee's résumé is deeper, but that doesn't measure what either man brings right now.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes Landed per Min
McGee's UFC career (24 fights) against Nolan's 22 minutes. Over his last five, McGee sits near 3.2
Striking Accuracy (%)
Sample size: McGee: 3700 · Nolan: 107
Sig. Strikes Absorbed per Min
Nolan absorbed less, but spent a lot of the Hasanov fight working from the bottom
Striking Defense (%)
Sample size: Nolan: 103
Takedowns Landed per 15 Min
Nolan hasn't landed a takedown in the UFC, on a single attempt
Takedown Accuracy (%)
Sample size: McGee: 145 · Nolan: 1
Takedown Defense (%)
Sample size: Nolan: 34
Nolan's 44% comes almost entirely from Hasanov's 27 attempts
Submission Attempts per 15 Min
McGee leads in 7 categories · Nolan leads in 1
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
McGee is a decision fighter: half of his 22 wins went to the cards, and none of his 11 UFC wins came by knockout. Submissions, six in his career, are his other lane. Nolan is the opposite: half of his eight wins are knockouts, all on the regional scene. McGee's pro record doesn't include his TUF 11 semifinal win over Brad Tavares, which was an exhibition.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
McGee almost always loses on the cards: 11 of his 14 losses are decisions, and he has never been submitted. But two of his three knockout losses came in his last five fights, both in round one. Nolan has never been stopped by strikes in 13 pro fights, which means it hasn't happened yet, not that his chin is bulletproof. Both submissions he's suffered were rear-naked chokes, exactly the route McGee used on Means.
Skills Profile
McGee
vs
Nolan
Striking Volume
+1 McGee
McGee lands 4.50 significant strikes per minute across his UFC career, but that's dipped to about 3.2 over his last five. Nolan sits at 1.68 over just 22 UFC minutes, a number dragged down by his time on the bottom against Hasanov, who landed 17 takedowns. Against Susurkaev, in a striking-led fight, he landed 22 significant strikes and ate 36.
Knockout Power
+3 Nolan
All four of Nolan's knockout wins came by punch, all on the regional scene, and he rocked Susurkaev in the UFC. McGee has no knockouts in the UFC.
Chin and Durability
+2 Nolan
McGee was stopped in round one in 2022 and 2023. Nolan has never been stopped by strikes, but he's never spent long on the feet with a UFC-level puncher either.
Wrestling and Clinch
+1 McGee
McGee has landed just 23 of 145 UFC takedown attempts, but he keeps chaining them and works the fence. Nolan has conceded 19 of 34 in the UFC, nearly all to Hasanov, and usually gets back up.
Submission Game
+2 McGee
McGee choked out Means from the back in 2024. Nolan has lost twice by RNC and has zero official submission attempts in the UFC.
Cardio (3 Rounds)
Even
McGee has gone to the cards in seven of his last ten. Nolan went the full three rounds with Hasanov despite giving up 17 takedowns. McGee's age and layoff are unknowns, not proof of physical decline.
McGee has the edge in almost everything that takes time and position: volume, fence work, the back. Nolan has the edge in the one thing that ends it at once: the isolated power shot. In a three-round fight between a 41-year-old veteran and a 29-year-old puncher, the question is which one shows up first.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
Conviction3/10Nolan wins because he brings the tool that stopped McGee in his last two stoppage losses: punching power. McGee got knocked out by punches in round one against Wells in June 2022 and Brown in May 2023. That pillar comes with a date stamp: those fights are three and four years old, and McGee hasn't been stopped in the three since (Morono, Means, Chiesa). The Chiesa loss was about volume, not power, so it doesn't carry over to Nolan, who throws isolated shots. McGee's age and his nearly 16-month layoff aren't pillars here: with no dated report on his camp, they're uncertainty that cuts both ways. The likeliest path is Nolan stuffing takedowns along the fence, the way he did on the regional scene, and landing something clean somewhere in those 15 minutes. The thesis falls apart if McGee turns this into scrambles and takes the back, which is Nolan's documented weak spot, or if McGee's chin holds and he wins rounds against a Nolan who got outlanded in both of his UFC fights.
Nolan wins because he brings the tool that stopped McGee in his last two stoppage losses: punching power. McGee got knocked out by punches in round one against Wells in June 2022 and Brown in May 2023. That pillar comes with a date stamp: those fights are three and four years old, and McGee hasn't been stopped in the three since (Morono, Means, Chiesa). The Chiesa loss was about volume, not power, so it doesn't carry over to Nolan, who throws isolated shots. McGee's age and his nearly 16-month layoff aren't pillars here: with no dated report on his camp, they're uncertainty that cuts both ways. The likeliest path is Nolan stuffing takedowns along the fence, the way he did on the regional scene, and landing something clean somewhere in those 15 minutes. The thesis falls apart if McGee turns this into scrambles and takes the back, which is Nolan's documented weak spot, or if McGee's chin holds and he wins rounds against a Nolan who got outlanded in both of his UFC fights.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
If McGee takes the back in a scramble in round one or two, Nolan's documented weakness (two RNC losses) decides the fight for the veteran.
- 02
If Nolan repeats what he showed in his debut, when Susurkaev outlanded him 36-22 in significant strikes, and McGee keeps his output up, the veteran wins on the cards without needing a takedown.
- 03
If McGee eats Nolan's first clean shots without going down, the way he held up against Morono and Chiesa, the knockout read weakens and a decision becomes the likelier outcome.
- 04
A dated report of a bad weight cut or a short camp for Nolan would change the read; none was found at capture.
Underdog Path
McGee pressures from the opening bell, uses combinations to close distance and never lets Nolan plant his feet and let his hands go. He pushes him to the fence, mixes in takedown attempts and forces scrambles. From there he hunts the back, the position that ended the Means fight. If the finish doesn't come, he takes rounds on volume and top time against a guy who got outlanded in both of his UFC fights.
Required Conditions
- Stay out of the line of Nolan's power shots early, the window where Wells and Brown got him
- Close distance behind combinations, not naked level changes
- Turn takedown attempts into scrambles and get to the back
- Keep his output up for all three rounds, something he didn't do against Chiesa
— Precedent: McGee vs. Means (UFC 307, October 2024, Salt Lake City): combination to close, takedown, back take on the fence and an RNC at 3:19 of round one. At UFC 319, Susurkaev reached Nolan's back in a scramble and choked him out. Susurkaev is a very different fighter from McGee, so that precedent shows the opening exists, not that McGee can exploit it.
Verdict
Winner
Eric Nolan
Method
KO/TKO
Most likely winner
Eric "Night Time" Nolan wins
Nolan has the power against a McGee who was stopped in round one in 2022 and 2023, though not in the three fights since. McGee's age and layoff are uncertainty, not a pillar. The countercase is strong: McGee has a route to the back, Nolan's documented weak spot, and Nolan got outlanded in both of his UFC fights. An uncalibrated editorial estimate, essentially a coin flip.
Stats That Matter
2
first-round knockout losses for McGee in 2022 and 2023, against Wells and Brown
He hasn't been knocked out in the three fights since
2
of Nolan's five losses ended in a rear-naked choke
Richards in 2023 and Susurkaev in 2025, both in round two
1.68
significant strikes per minute for Nolan in the UFC, over 22 minutes
Tiny sample, dragged down by his time on the bottom against Hasanov. In his middleweight debut, Susurkaev outlanded him 36-22 in significant strikes
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Court "The Crusher" McGee vs Eric "Night Time" Nolan | UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang | October 3, 2026 | Delta Center, Salt Lake City, United States
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